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Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2010

April 5, 2010


An all new edition of the industry’s premier market analysis and forecast report, Yellow
Pages Market Forecast 2010 is packed with all of the most current statistics and detail
you need to build a successful plan for growth this year and beyond.

Use YPMF 2010 to uncover the driving forces shaping the strength and direction of the
overall market:

         The state of the U.S. yellow pages and directory publishing industry, including
         number of books, circulation and revenue.
         The collage of syndicated research that has put the yellow pages industry at a
         disadvantage when competing with other media.
         The changing competitive landscape which has caused some withdrawal of print
         from some markets while digital expansion is booming.
         Mergers and acquisitions have come to a crawl for the first time in decades.
         And more

This volume is packed with the information you need to help benchmark your success,
target your revenue growth, pinpoint investment activity drivers, identify growth
opportunities and much more:

         Revenue broken out by Telco segment and Independent segment.
         Three-year revenue/market share projections.
         Advertising spending, rates and trends, including overall page volume, page
         billings, double half column (DHC) rates and more.
         Over 40 charts and graphs.
         20+ company profiles that span RBOCs, independents, online-only directories
         and printers/suppliers.

Published annually since 1986, Yellow Pages Market Forecast offers an in-depth,
authoritative analysis of the entire U.S. yellow pages market, from utility publishers to
independents. This study is the source for informed perspective on significant market
developments and objective, accurate forecasts for industry growth.
Additional Information

Stamford, CT—April 6, 2010—U.S. yellow pages revenue is expected to decline 3% in
2010, according to Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2010, a new report published this
week from media industry forecast and analysis firm Simba Information.

In 2009, yellow pages revenue in the U.S. declined 7.5% to an estimated $15.38 billion,
driven primarily by the struggling U.S. economy, financial difficulties of major publishers
and continued market adjustments of RBOC rates as they face stiff competition from
independents and independent telcos.

Revenue for incumbent publishers is expected to decline to $10.62 billion in 2010 while
independent publishers will return to positive numbers with a 2.8% growth to $4.39
billion, accounting for a 28.8% share of the U.S. yellow pages market.

Independents, which represented only 6.5% of the market in 1996 when the
Telecommunications Act was passed, are projected to surpass $4.42 billion in 2012 to
capture a 29.5% share.

“It all finally came together for the yellow pages industry in 2009—and not in a good
way,” said David Goddard, lead author of the Simba study. “Still shaken by the previous
year’s first industry-wide revenue loss in more than two decades, the publishers faced
2009 with two of the three remaining RBOCs and one major independent publisher
going into bankruptcy and the largest independent publisher’s parent company going to
the banks for refinancing.

“And, as if this were not enough, the U.S. economy continued its downward spiral with
owners of small and medium-sized businesses—the backbone of the yellow pages
industry—finding themselves out of money, out of credit and sometimes out of paying
customers,” Goddard said.

Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2010 examines the industry with a focus on individual
segments of the market including RBOC publishers, independent telco publishers,
independent publishers, printers and suppliers to the industry.

For additional information please visit www.simbainformation.com or contact David
Goddard at 203-325-8193 x105.

About Simba Information:

Simba Information is widely recognized as the leading authority for market intelligence
in the media and publishing industry. Simba's extensive information network delivers top
quality, independent perspective on the people, events and alliances shaping the media
and information industry. Simba provides consulting and reports that provide key
decision-makers at more than 15,000 client companies around the globe with timely
analysis, exclusive statistics and proprietary industry forecasts. For more information,
please visit www.simbainformation.com.




Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Yellow Pages Publishing Market
     Introduction
     Industry Size and Growth
     National and State Economy
     Industry Trends and Analysis
     Increased Competition
     RBOC Companion Directories Provide a Short-Term Revenue Boost
     Syndicated Usage Research Stalls: No Studies Resume
     Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures Remain Strong in 2007 and Q1 2008
     Litigation in the Yellow Pages Industry
     The Ticking Time Bomb: Defused
     Directory Recycling and the Waste Stream
     The History of the Environmental Movement

       Table 1.1: Statistical Summary of the Yellow Pages Industry, 2004-2009
       Table 1.2: RBOC Revenue Change, 1999-2009
       Table 1.3: Personal Income by State, Q3 2009 vs. Q3 2008
       Table 1.4: Fastest Growing States in Personal Income, Q3 2009 vs. Q3 2008
       Table 1.5: Slowest Growing States in Personal Income, Q3 2009 vs. Q3 2008
       Table 1.6: Selected Start-Ups, 2007-2009
       Table 1.7: Financial Size of Selected Yellow Pages Acquisitions, 2008-2010
       Table 1.8: Financial Size of Selected Historical Yellow Pages Acquisitions, 1988-
       2007
       Table 1.9: Select Yellow Pages Industry Lawsuits, 1983-2007
       Table 1.10: Nondurable Goods Generated in Municipal Waste Stream, 1990-
       2008
       Table 1.11: Select Nondurable Goods Discarded in Municipal Waste Stream,
       1990-2008

Chapter 2: Yellow Pages Advertising and Publishing
     Introduction
     Usage Numbers Decline Slightly
     Industry Trade Association Merger Has Partial Success
Total Advertising and Yellow Pages Advertising
Leading Certified Marketing Representatives (CMRs)
TMP Directional Marketing
Wahlstrom Group
The Berry Co.
Ketchum Directory Advertising
Yellow Pages Advertising Rates
Independent Advertising Rates
Yellow Pages Advertising Revenue at Regional Bell Operating Cos.
The RBOC Publishers’ Top 30 Books
The RBOC Publishers’ Business-to-Business Directories
AT&T Advertising Solutions
SuperMedia
Dex One
The Changing Face of the Industry
Independent Non-Telco and Telco Publishers
Yellowbook
Valley Yellow Pages
White Directory Publishers
Your Community PhoneBook (formerly DataNational)
Phone Directories Co.
User-Friendly Phone Book
Names & Numbers
Metro Markets Account for 12.1% Share of Total Revenue
Leading Independent Telco Publishers
Local Insight
CenturyLink
FrontierPages
SunShine Pages
Independent Publishers vs. Non-Bell Publishers vs. RBOC Publishers
Employment in Directory Publishing
Forecast Industry Growth

Table 2.1: Yellow Pages Growth Rates, 1995-2012P
Table 2.2: YP Telco Growth Rates, 1996-2012P
Table 2.3: YP Non-Telco Growth Rates, 1996-2012P
Table 2.4: Yellow Pages References, 2006-2014P
Table 2.5: Print Yellow Pages References, Top 20 Headings, 2007-2008
Table 2.6: Internet Yellow Pages References, Top 20 Headings, 2007-2008
Table 2.7: Revenue Growth in All U.S. Advertising Media, 2007-2010P
Table 2.8: Yellow Pages’ Share of U.S. Advertising, 2000-2010P
Table 2.9: National vs. Local Yellow Pages Advertising 2007-2010P
Table 2.10: Selected Largest Certified Marketing Representatives (CMRs) by
Revenue, 2006-2009
Table 2.11: Average Advertising Rate Increases, 25 Top RBOC Directories,
1990-2010P
Table 2.12: DHC Rates, CPMs in 25 Top Directories by RBOC Publishers
Table 2.13: DHC Rates, CPMs in 16 Select Independent Directories
      Table 2.14: RBOC Yellow Pages Revenue, 2007-2010P
      Table 2.15: RBOC Revenue Change, 1998-2009
      Table 2.16: Leading RBOC Directories, 2009
      Table 2.17: Selected RBOC Business-to-Business Directories, 2009 vs. 2008
      Table 2.18: Largest U.S. Yellow Pages Directory Publishers, 2009
      Table 2.19: Estimated Revenues of Select Non-Telco Publishers, 2007-2009
      Table 2.20: Yellowbook’s Top 10 Directories 2009
      Table 2.21: Valley’s Top 10 Directories 2009
      Table 2.22: Print, Internet Share of Yellow Pages Metro Markets, 2008-2011P
      Table 2.23: Simba’s Top 20 Metro Markets, 2005-2009
      Table 2.24: Yellow Pages Revenue Growth by Publisher Category, 1996-2012P
      Table 2.25: Yellow Pages Market Share by Type of Publishers, 1996-2012P
      Table 2.26: Revenue Change by Yellow Pages Segment, 1996-2012P
      Table 2.27: Yellow Pages Revenue vs. Telco Revenue vs. Advertising in All
      Media, 2000-2009
      Table 2.28: Select Telco-Affiliate Publishers Ranked by Employee Headcount,
      2006-2009

Chapter 3: Markets for Printers and Suppliers
     Introduction
     Directory Unit Production by Publisher
     Billings in RBOCs’ 50,000+ Circulation Directories Increased in 2008
     Leading Directory Printers
     R.R. Donnelley
     Worldcolor Press
     Paper Consumption by Directory Publishers
     The Pre-Media Market
     Amdocs

      Table 3.1: RBOC Directory Publishers by Circulation, 2005-2009
      Table 3.2: Large Independent Telco and Non-Telco Directory Publishers by
      Circulation, 2005-2009
      Table 3.3: Titles and Yellow Pages Volume in RBOC Directories with Circulation
      More Than 50,000
      Table 3.4: RBOC Directories 50,000+ vs. Total Circulation, 2008-2009
      Table 3.5: Summary of Leading Directory Printers, Major Customers and Print
      Runs, 2007-2009
      Table 3.6: Capacity and Consumption, Uncoated Groundwood Paper, 2008-2009
      Table 3.7: U.S. Demand for Directory Paper, 2008-2009
      Table 3.8: Outlays for Printing, Paper, Other Production and Distribution;
      Directory Publishing Industry, 2005-2009

Chapter 4: Profiles of RBOC Publishers
     AT&T Communications
     Dex One (Formerly R.H. Donnelley)
     SuperMedia (Formerly Idearc Media)
Chapter 5: Profiles of Leading Independent Telco Publishers
     CenturyLink (Formerly CenturyTel)
     FrontierPages
     Local Insight Media
     EATEL

Chapter 6: Profiles of Leading Independent Publishers
     Ambassador Media Group
     Hagadone Directories
     Names & Numbers
     Ogden Directories
     Phone Directories Co. (Ziplocal)
     User-Friendly Phone Book
     Valley Yellow Pages
     White Directory Publishers
     Yellowbook
     Your Community Phonebook

Chapter 7: Profiles of Leading Printers and Suppliers
     Amdocs Ltd.
     The Berry Co.
     R.R. Donnelley & Sons
     Worldcolor



Available immediately for Online Download at
http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2523077



US: 800.298.5699

UK +44.207.256.3920

Int'l: +1.240.747.3093

Fax: 240.747.3004

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Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2010

  • 1. Get more info on this report! Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2010 April 5, 2010 An all new edition of the industry’s premier market analysis and forecast report, Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2010 is packed with all of the most current statistics and detail you need to build a successful plan for growth this year and beyond. Use YPMF 2010 to uncover the driving forces shaping the strength and direction of the overall market: The state of the U.S. yellow pages and directory publishing industry, including number of books, circulation and revenue. The collage of syndicated research that has put the yellow pages industry at a disadvantage when competing with other media. The changing competitive landscape which has caused some withdrawal of print from some markets while digital expansion is booming. Mergers and acquisitions have come to a crawl for the first time in decades. And more This volume is packed with the information you need to help benchmark your success, target your revenue growth, pinpoint investment activity drivers, identify growth opportunities and much more: Revenue broken out by Telco segment and Independent segment. Three-year revenue/market share projections. Advertising spending, rates and trends, including overall page volume, page billings, double half column (DHC) rates and more. Over 40 charts and graphs. 20+ company profiles that span RBOCs, independents, online-only directories and printers/suppliers. Published annually since 1986, Yellow Pages Market Forecast offers an in-depth, authoritative analysis of the entire U.S. yellow pages market, from utility publishers to independents. This study is the source for informed perspective on significant market developments and objective, accurate forecasts for industry growth.
  • 2. Additional Information Stamford, CT—April 6, 2010—U.S. yellow pages revenue is expected to decline 3% in 2010, according to Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2010, a new report published this week from media industry forecast and analysis firm Simba Information. In 2009, yellow pages revenue in the U.S. declined 7.5% to an estimated $15.38 billion, driven primarily by the struggling U.S. economy, financial difficulties of major publishers and continued market adjustments of RBOC rates as they face stiff competition from independents and independent telcos. Revenue for incumbent publishers is expected to decline to $10.62 billion in 2010 while independent publishers will return to positive numbers with a 2.8% growth to $4.39 billion, accounting for a 28.8% share of the U.S. yellow pages market. Independents, which represented only 6.5% of the market in 1996 when the Telecommunications Act was passed, are projected to surpass $4.42 billion in 2012 to capture a 29.5% share. “It all finally came together for the yellow pages industry in 2009—and not in a good way,” said David Goddard, lead author of the Simba study. “Still shaken by the previous year’s first industry-wide revenue loss in more than two decades, the publishers faced 2009 with two of the three remaining RBOCs and one major independent publisher going into bankruptcy and the largest independent publisher’s parent company going to the banks for refinancing. “And, as if this were not enough, the U.S. economy continued its downward spiral with owners of small and medium-sized businesses—the backbone of the yellow pages industry—finding themselves out of money, out of credit and sometimes out of paying customers,” Goddard said. Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2010 examines the industry with a focus on individual segments of the market including RBOC publishers, independent telco publishers, independent publishers, printers and suppliers to the industry. For additional information please visit www.simbainformation.com or contact David Goddard at 203-325-8193 x105. About Simba Information: Simba Information is widely recognized as the leading authority for market intelligence in the media and publishing industry. Simba's extensive information network delivers top quality, independent perspective on the people, events and alliances shaping the media
  • 3. and information industry. Simba provides consulting and reports that provide key decision-makers at more than 15,000 client companies around the globe with timely analysis, exclusive statistics and proprietary industry forecasts. For more information, please visit www.simbainformation.com. Table of Contents Methodology Executive Summary Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Yellow Pages Publishing Market Introduction Industry Size and Growth National and State Economy Industry Trends and Analysis Increased Competition RBOC Companion Directories Provide a Short-Term Revenue Boost Syndicated Usage Research Stalls: No Studies Resume Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures Remain Strong in 2007 and Q1 2008 Litigation in the Yellow Pages Industry The Ticking Time Bomb: Defused Directory Recycling and the Waste Stream The History of the Environmental Movement Table 1.1: Statistical Summary of the Yellow Pages Industry, 2004-2009 Table 1.2: RBOC Revenue Change, 1999-2009 Table 1.3: Personal Income by State, Q3 2009 vs. Q3 2008 Table 1.4: Fastest Growing States in Personal Income, Q3 2009 vs. Q3 2008 Table 1.5: Slowest Growing States in Personal Income, Q3 2009 vs. Q3 2008 Table 1.6: Selected Start-Ups, 2007-2009 Table 1.7: Financial Size of Selected Yellow Pages Acquisitions, 2008-2010 Table 1.8: Financial Size of Selected Historical Yellow Pages Acquisitions, 1988- 2007 Table 1.9: Select Yellow Pages Industry Lawsuits, 1983-2007 Table 1.10: Nondurable Goods Generated in Municipal Waste Stream, 1990- 2008 Table 1.11: Select Nondurable Goods Discarded in Municipal Waste Stream, 1990-2008 Chapter 2: Yellow Pages Advertising and Publishing Introduction Usage Numbers Decline Slightly Industry Trade Association Merger Has Partial Success
  • 4. Total Advertising and Yellow Pages Advertising Leading Certified Marketing Representatives (CMRs) TMP Directional Marketing Wahlstrom Group The Berry Co. Ketchum Directory Advertising Yellow Pages Advertising Rates Independent Advertising Rates Yellow Pages Advertising Revenue at Regional Bell Operating Cos. The RBOC Publishers’ Top 30 Books The RBOC Publishers’ Business-to-Business Directories AT&T Advertising Solutions SuperMedia Dex One The Changing Face of the Industry Independent Non-Telco and Telco Publishers Yellowbook Valley Yellow Pages White Directory Publishers Your Community PhoneBook (formerly DataNational) Phone Directories Co. User-Friendly Phone Book Names & Numbers Metro Markets Account for 12.1% Share of Total Revenue Leading Independent Telco Publishers Local Insight CenturyLink FrontierPages SunShine Pages Independent Publishers vs. Non-Bell Publishers vs. RBOC Publishers Employment in Directory Publishing Forecast Industry Growth Table 2.1: Yellow Pages Growth Rates, 1995-2012P Table 2.2: YP Telco Growth Rates, 1996-2012P Table 2.3: YP Non-Telco Growth Rates, 1996-2012P Table 2.4: Yellow Pages References, 2006-2014P Table 2.5: Print Yellow Pages References, Top 20 Headings, 2007-2008 Table 2.6: Internet Yellow Pages References, Top 20 Headings, 2007-2008 Table 2.7: Revenue Growth in All U.S. Advertising Media, 2007-2010P Table 2.8: Yellow Pages’ Share of U.S. Advertising, 2000-2010P Table 2.9: National vs. Local Yellow Pages Advertising 2007-2010P Table 2.10: Selected Largest Certified Marketing Representatives (CMRs) by Revenue, 2006-2009 Table 2.11: Average Advertising Rate Increases, 25 Top RBOC Directories, 1990-2010P Table 2.12: DHC Rates, CPMs in 25 Top Directories by RBOC Publishers
  • 5. Table 2.13: DHC Rates, CPMs in 16 Select Independent Directories Table 2.14: RBOC Yellow Pages Revenue, 2007-2010P Table 2.15: RBOC Revenue Change, 1998-2009 Table 2.16: Leading RBOC Directories, 2009 Table 2.17: Selected RBOC Business-to-Business Directories, 2009 vs. 2008 Table 2.18: Largest U.S. Yellow Pages Directory Publishers, 2009 Table 2.19: Estimated Revenues of Select Non-Telco Publishers, 2007-2009 Table 2.20: Yellowbook’s Top 10 Directories 2009 Table 2.21: Valley’s Top 10 Directories 2009 Table 2.22: Print, Internet Share of Yellow Pages Metro Markets, 2008-2011P Table 2.23: Simba’s Top 20 Metro Markets, 2005-2009 Table 2.24: Yellow Pages Revenue Growth by Publisher Category, 1996-2012P Table 2.25: Yellow Pages Market Share by Type of Publishers, 1996-2012P Table 2.26: Revenue Change by Yellow Pages Segment, 1996-2012P Table 2.27: Yellow Pages Revenue vs. Telco Revenue vs. Advertising in All Media, 2000-2009 Table 2.28: Select Telco-Affiliate Publishers Ranked by Employee Headcount, 2006-2009 Chapter 3: Markets for Printers and Suppliers Introduction Directory Unit Production by Publisher Billings in RBOCs’ 50,000+ Circulation Directories Increased in 2008 Leading Directory Printers R.R. Donnelley Worldcolor Press Paper Consumption by Directory Publishers The Pre-Media Market Amdocs Table 3.1: RBOC Directory Publishers by Circulation, 2005-2009 Table 3.2: Large Independent Telco and Non-Telco Directory Publishers by Circulation, 2005-2009 Table 3.3: Titles and Yellow Pages Volume in RBOC Directories with Circulation More Than 50,000 Table 3.4: RBOC Directories 50,000+ vs. Total Circulation, 2008-2009 Table 3.5: Summary of Leading Directory Printers, Major Customers and Print Runs, 2007-2009 Table 3.6: Capacity and Consumption, Uncoated Groundwood Paper, 2008-2009 Table 3.7: U.S. Demand for Directory Paper, 2008-2009 Table 3.8: Outlays for Printing, Paper, Other Production and Distribution; Directory Publishing Industry, 2005-2009 Chapter 4: Profiles of RBOC Publishers AT&T Communications Dex One (Formerly R.H. Donnelley) SuperMedia (Formerly Idearc Media)
  • 6. Chapter 5: Profiles of Leading Independent Telco Publishers CenturyLink (Formerly CenturyTel) FrontierPages Local Insight Media EATEL Chapter 6: Profiles of Leading Independent Publishers Ambassador Media Group Hagadone Directories Names & Numbers Ogden Directories Phone Directories Co. (Ziplocal) User-Friendly Phone Book Valley Yellow Pages White Directory Publishers Yellowbook Your Community Phonebook Chapter 7: Profiles of Leading Printers and Suppliers Amdocs Ltd. The Berry Co. R.R. Donnelley & Sons Worldcolor Available immediately for Online Download at http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2523077 US: 800.298.5699 UK +44.207.256.3920 Int'l: +1.240.747.3093 Fax: 240.747.3004