2. martin @koeppelmann
• founder of Fairlay.com - Bitcoin prediction market
• started Gnosis January 2015
• general Ethereum/Blockchain research on state-channels and
Consensus game theory
• circles - basic income on the blockchain (aboutcircles.com)
• recently covered theDAO heist with 3 FAQs
10. BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
(HOLDS COLLATERAL UNTIL ON OF THE
OUTCOME TOKENS IS REDEEMABLE FOR THE
COLLATERAL)
Oracle
COLLATERAL
TOKEN
TOKEN
OUTCOME 1
TOKEN
OUTCOME 2
TOKEN
OUTCOME N
11. Buy information – remove uncertainty
• Lets say you need information if a future event will happen or not
for a decision. Putting up bets on a prediction market could be
the most cost efficient way to get this information. By creating
bets on and against the outcome of the event you create an
incentive for everyone who has more information about this
event. To achieve this the use of a automated market maker like
this is most efficient.
12. Selling information – remove uncertainty
• Corresponding you can sell information. Either because you are a
great researcher and you want to monetize your work or because
you just have inside information. There are good reasons to
legalize insider trading. Why should a information that is already
available be withhold from public?
13. Hedging – insure yourself
• An insurance is basically a bet. A fire insurance for example is a
bet that your house will burn down. If it does you get a lot of
money, if it doesn’t you loose the money invested. Prediction
markets could open the role of an insurance company to everyone
a could make the margins razor thin.
14. Creating an incentive – setting up a bounty
• Bet that something will not happen to give others an incentive to
make it happen. Lets say you bet 10 BTC against a new feature
beeing in the next Bitcoin core version. This is basically setting up
a bounty for everyone to make it happen. We have written more
about this scheme here.
15. Signaling – make a statement
• Lets say you are starting a kickstarter campaign for a product. It
probably would increase your credibility significantly if you place
a big bet on the event that you will deliver in time if the funds
are raised.
16. to govern – Futarchy
• Decentralized market based decision making. Set up markets that
will predict the influence/outcome of a decision. Automatically
chose the decision with the best predicted outcome.
17. Gambling - make it cheap
• While today bookmakers pay out only about 90% of the wagers
prediction markets could increase this number close to 100%.
Even a weekly random bet of $100 on a sport event would sum up
to average costs of less than $50 per year (assuming a payout rate
of > 99%)
18. gnosis crowdsale
• 4 weeks starting a DevCon II
• ETH will go into the Gnosis DAO - governed by Futarchy
• Gnosis DAO tokens will give owners the right to create markets
without fees
• fees on the platform will be distributed to token holders
• will fund Gnosis platform and the oracle platform
• chose how much the core team should get
• Gnosis DAO vs. Gnosis Fund