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SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Changing by Alisa Singer
“As we witness our planet transforming around us we watch, listen, measure … respond”.
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
BY THE NUMBERS
Author Team
234 authors from 65 countries
28% women, 72% men
63% first-time IPCC authors
Review Process
78,000+ review comments
46 countries commented on Final
Government Distribution
14,000 scientific publications assessed
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
“Recent changes in the climate
are widespread, rapid, and
intensifying, and
unprecedented in thousands
of years.
[Credit: NASA]
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900
Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is
unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900
Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is
unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years
1.1 °C
warmer
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900
Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is
unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Highest
in at least
2 million years
CO2
concentration
Sea level
rise
Glaciers
retreat
Arctic sea ice
area
Fastest rates
in at least
3000 years
Lowest level
in at least
1000 years
Unprecedented
in at least
2000 years
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Extreme heat
More frequent
More intense
Heavy rainfall
More frequent
More intense
Drought
Increase in some
regions
Fire weather
More frequent
Photo Credits from left: 1. Luiz Guimaraes 2. Jonathan Ford 3. Peter Burdon 4. Ben Kuo 5. NOAA
Ocean
Warming
Acidifying
Losing oxygen
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
“Unless there are immediate,
rapid, and large-scale
reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions, limiting warming to
1.5°C will be beyond reach.
[Credit: Peter John Maridable]
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Future emissions cause future additional warming
Very high CO2 emissions
High CO2 emissions
Intermediate
CO2 emissions
Low CO2 emissions
Very low CO2 emissions
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Future emissions cause future additional warming
Very high CO2 emissions
High CO2 emissions
Intermediate
CO2 emissions
Low CO2 emissions
Very low CO2 emissions
Near-term
1.5 °C
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Future emissions cause future additional warming
Very high CO2 emissions
High CO2 emissions
Intermediate
CO2 emissions
Low CO2 emissions
Very low CO2 emissions
1.5 °C
Near-term
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Future emissions cause future additional warming
Very high CO2 emissions
High CO2 emissions
Intermediate
CO2 emissions
Low CO2 emissions
Very low CO2 emissions
Mid-term
2 °C
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
…at 2°C …at 4°C
…at 1.5°C
With every additional amount of global warming, changes
get larger.
Simulated changes…
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Extreme rainfall intensifies by 7% for each additional 1°C
at 1.5°C
at 2°C
With every additional amount of global warming, changes
get larger.
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
“
It is indisputable that human
activities are causing climate
change, making extreme climate
events, including heat waves,
heavy rainfall, and droughts,
more frequent and severe.
[Credit: Yoda Adaman | Unsplash]
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Observed warming
is driven by emissions
from human
activities, with
greenhouse gas
warming partly
masked by aerosol
cooling
warming
cooling
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Observed warming
is driven by emissions
from human
activities, with
greenhouse gas
warming partly
masked by aerosol
cooling
warming
cooling
Observed warming Total human influence
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Greenhouse gases
warming
cooling
Observed warming
is driven by emissions
from human
activities, with
greenhouse gas
warming partly
masked by aerosol
cooling
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Pollution particles (aerosols)
warming
cooling
Observed warming
is driven by emissions
from human
activities, with
greenhouse gas
warming partly
masked by aerosol
cooling
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Natural factors
warming
cooling
Observed warming
is driven by emissions
from human
activities, with
greenhouse gas
warming partly
masked by aerosol
cooling
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Internal variability
warming
cooling
Observed warming
is driven by emissions
from human
activities, with
greenhouse gas
warming partly
masked by aerosol
cooling
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Human influence, main
driver of…
• …Hot extremes, which have become more
frequent and more intense
Photo Credit: Chris JL
Photo Credit: Chris JL / flickr
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Human influence, main
driver of…
• …Hot extremes, which have become more
frequent and more intense
• …ocean warming since the 1970s, and
ocean acidification.
Photo Credit: Baptiste Azais
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Human influence, main
driver of…
• …Hot extremes, which have become more
frequent and more intense
• …ocean warming since the 1970s, and
ocean acidification.
• …changes we see in the frozen areas of
the planet:
Photo Credit: Kenneth Mankoff
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Human influence, main
driver of…
• …Hot extremes, which have become more
frequent and more intense
• …ocean warming since the 1970s, and
ocean acidification.
• …changes we see in the frozen areas of
the planet:
• global retreat of glaciers since the 1990
Photo Credit: Kenneth Mankoff
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Human influence, main
driver of…
• …Hot extremes, which have become more
frequent and more intense
• …ocean warming since the 1970s, and
ocean acidification.
• …changes we see in the frozen areas of
the planet:
• global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s
• 40% decrease in Arctic sea ice since 1979
Photo Credit: Andy Mahoney
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Human influence, main
driver of…
• …Hot extremes, which have become more
frequent and more intense
• …ocean warming since the 1970s, and
ocean acidification.
• …changes we see in the frozen areas of
the planet:
• global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s
• 40% decrease in Arctic sea ice since 1979
• decrease in spring snow cover since the
1950s.
Photo Credit: Andy Mahoney
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
“
Climate change is already
affecting every region on Earth,
in multiple ways.
The changes we experience will
increase with further warming.
[Credit: Hong Nguyen | Unsplash]
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
New regional information
Inform decisions
related to risk
management and
adaptation
A third of our report is
dedicated to regional
climate information
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
New regional information
Inform decisions
related to risk
management and
adaptation
A third of our report is
dedicated to regional
climate information
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Climatic impact-drivers
Heat
&
cold
Rain
&
drought
Snow
&
ice
Coastal
&
oceanic
Wind Other Open
ocean
A climatic impact-driver could go over thresholds known to
lead to severe consequences for people, agriculture, or
wildlife
Threshold
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Changes to the Water cycle
With warmer temperature
Atmosphere can hold more water
More and faster evaporation
Heavier precipitation
Atmosphere
Frozen regions
Land Ocean
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Changes to the Water cycle
Heavier rainfall
Intensifying dry seasons and droughts
Atmosphere
Frozen regions
Land Ocean
More global warming
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Rainfall and Monsoon
Annual Rainfall on Land
Increasing
Monsoons
Changing in complex ways
Photos: Left: Arek Socha, Pixabay: Right: James Martin Phelps
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Interactive atlas
https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/
#IPCCData #IPCCAtlas
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
“There’s no going back from some
changes in the climate system…
[Credit: Jenn Caselle | UCSB]
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Ocean and ice sheets
Ocean temperature
Increasing
Greenland Ice Sheet
Melting
Sea level
Rising
Photo Credits from left: NOAA; Konrad Steffen; Allan Grinberg
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
“…However, some changes could
be slowed and others could be
stopped by limiting warming.
[Credit: Andy Mahoney | NSIDC]
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
“
To limit global warming, strong,
rapid, and sustained reductions in
CO2, methane, and other
greenhouse gases are necessary.
This would not only reduce the
consequences of climate change
but also improve air quality.
[Credit: evgeny-nelmin.]
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Every tonne of CO2 emissions adds to global warming
Very high CO2 emissions
High CO2 emissions
Intermediate CO2 emissions
Low CO2 emissions
Very low CO2 emissions
Increasing CO2
Increasing
temperatures
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Every tonne of CO2 emissions adds to global warming
Very high CO2 emissions
High CO2 emissions
Intermediate CO2 emissions
Low CO2 emissions
Very low CO2 emissions
Increasing CO2
Increasing
temperatures
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
LAND
OCEAN
CO2
Carbon dioxide
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
CO2
Carbon dioxide
CH4
Methane
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
“The climate we experience
in the future depends on our
decisions now.
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
9 August 2021
#ClimateReport #IPCC
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Thank you.
@IPCC
@IPCC_CH
linkedin.com/company/ipcc
IPCC: www.ipcc.ch
Interactive Atlas: interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch
IPCC Working Group I TSU:
IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int
More Information: Follow Us:

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IPCC_AR6_WGI_Press_Conference_Slides (1).pdf

  • 1. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Changing by Alisa Singer “As we witness our planet transforming around us we watch, listen, measure … respond”.
  • 2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis BY THE NUMBERS Author Team 234 authors from 65 countries 28% women, 72% men 63% first-time IPCC authors Review Process 78,000+ review comments 46 countries commented on Final Government Distribution 14,000 scientific publications assessed
  • 3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
  • 4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
  • 5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis “Recent changes in the climate are widespread, rapid, and intensifying, and unprecedented in thousands of years. [Credit: NASA]
  • 6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900 Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years
  • 7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900 Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years 1.1 °C warmer
  • 8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850-1900 Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years
  • 9. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Highest in at least 2 million years CO2 concentration Sea level rise Glaciers retreat Arctic sea ice area Fastest rates in at least 3000 years Lowest level in at least 1000 years Unprecedented in at least 2000 years
  • 10. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Extreme heat More frequent More intense Heavy rainfall More frequent More intense Drought Increase in some regions Fire weather More frequent Photo Credits from left: 1. Luiz Guimaraes 2. Jonathan Ford 3. Peter Burdon 4. Ben Kuo 5. NOAA Ocean Warming Acidifying Losing oxygen
  • 11. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis “Unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C will be beyond reach. [Credit: Peter John Maridable]
  • 12. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Future emissions cause future additional warming Very high CO2 emissions High CO2 emissions Intermediate CO2 emissions Low CO2 emissions Very low CO2 emissions
  • 13. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Future emissions cause future additional warming Very high CO2 emissions High CO2 emissions Intermediate CO2 emissions Low CO2 emissions Very low CO2 emissions Near-term 1.5 °C
  • 14. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Future emissions cause future additional warming Very high CO2 emissions High CO2 emissions Intermediate CO2 emissions Low CO2 emissions Very low CO2 emissions 1.5 °C Near-term
  • 15. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Future emissions cause future additional warming Very high CO2 emissions High CO2 emissions Intermediate CO2 emissions Low CO2 emissions Very low CO2 emissions Mid-term 2 °C
  • 16. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis …at 2°C …at 4°C …at 1.5°C With every additional amount of global warming, changes get larger. Simulated changes…
  • 17. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Extreme rainfall intensifies by 7% for each additional 1°C at 1.5°C at 2°C With every additional amount of global warming, changes get larger.
  • 18. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis “ It is indisputable that human activities are causing climate change, making extreme climate events, including heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, more frequent and severe. [Credit: Yoda Adaman | Unsplash]
  • 19. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Observed warming is driven by emissions from human activities, with greenhouse gas warming partly masked by aerosol cooling warming cooling
  • 20. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Observed warming is driven by emissions from human activities, with greenhouse gas warming partly masked by aerosol cooling warming cooling Observed warming Total human influence
  • 21. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Greenhouse gases warming cooling Observed warming is driven by emissions from human activities, with greenhouse gas warming partly masked by aerosol cooling
  • 22. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Pollution particles (aerosols) warming cooling Observed warming is driven by emissions from human activities, with greenhouse gas warming partly masked by aerosol cooling
  • 23. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Natural factors warming cooling Observed warming is driven by emissions from human activities, with greenhouse gas warming partly masked by aerosol cooling
  • 24. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Internal variability warming cooling Observed warming is driven by emissions from human activities, with greenhouse gas warming partly masked by aerosol cooling
  • 25. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Human influence, main driver of… • …Hot extremes, which have become more frequent and more intense Photo Credit: Chris JL Photo Credit: Chris JL / flickr
  • 26. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Human influence, main driver of… • …Hot extremes, which have become more frequent and more intense • …ocean warming since the 1970s, and ocean acidification. Photo Credit: Baptiste Azais
  • 27. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Human influence, main driver of… • …Hot extremes, which have become more frequent and more intense • …ocean warming since the 1970s, and ocean acidification. • …changes we see in the frozen areas of the planet: Photo Credit: Kenneth Mankoff
  • 28. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Human influence, main driver of… • …Hot extremes, which have become more frequent and more intense • …ocean warming since the 1970s, and ocean acidification. • …changes we see in the frozen areas of the planet: • global retreat of glaciers since the 1990 Photo Credit: Kenneth Mankoff
  • 29. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Human influence, main driver of… • …Hot extremes, which have become more frequent and more intense • …ocean warming since the 1970s, and ocean acidification. • …changes we see in the frozen areas of the planet: • global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s • 40% decrease in Arctic sea ice since 1979 Photo Credit: Andy Mahoney
  • 30. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Human influence, main driver of… • …Hot extremes, which have become more frequent and more intense • …ocean warming since the 1970s, and ocean acidification. • …changes we see in the frozen areas of the planet: • global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s • 40% decrease in Arctic sea ice since 1979 • decrease in spring snow cover since the 1950s. Photo Credit: Andy Mahoney
  • 31. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis “ Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth, in multiple ways. The changes we experience will increase with further warming. [Credit: Hong Nguyen | Unsplash]
  • 32. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis New regional information Inform decisions related to risk management and adaptation A third of our report is dedicated to regional climate information
  • 33. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis New regional information Inform decisions related to risk management and adaptation A third of our report is dedicated to regional climate information
  • 34. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Climatic impact-drivers Heat & cold Rain & drought Snow & ice Coastal & oceanic Wind Other Open ocean A climatic impact-driver could go over thresholds known to lead to severe consequences for people, agriculture, or wildlife Threshold
  • 35. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Changes to the Water cycle With warmer temperature Atmosphere can hold more water More and faster evaporation Heavier precipitation Atmosphere Frozen regions Land Ocean
  • 36. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Changes to the Water cycle Heavier rainfall Intensifying dry seasons and droughts Atmosphere Frozen regions Land Ocean More global warming
  • 37. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Rainfall and Monsoon Annual Rainfall on Land Increasing Monsoons Changing in complex ways Photos: Left: Arek Socha, Pixabay: Right: James Martin Phelps
  • 38. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Interactive atlas https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/ #IPCCData #IPCCAtlas
  • 39. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis “There’s no going back from some changes in the climate system… [Credit: Jenn Caselle | UCSB]
  • 40. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Ocean and ice sheets Ocean temperature Increasing Greenland Ice Sheet Melting Sea level Rising Photo Credits from left: NOAA; Konrad Steffen; Allan Grinberg
  • 41. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis “…However, some changes could be slowed and others could be stopped by limiting warming. [Credit: Andy Mahoney | NSIDC]
  • 42. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis “ To limit global warming, strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases are necessary. This would not only reduce the consequences of climate change but also improve air quality. [Credit: evgeny-nelmin.]
  • 43. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Every tonne of CO2 emissions adds to global warming Very high CO2 emissions High CO2 emissions Intermediate CO2 emissions Low CO2 emissions Very low CO2 emissions Increasing CO2 Increasing temperatures
  • 44. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Every tonne of CO2 emissions adds to global warming Very high CO2 emissions High CO2 emissions Intermediate CO2 emissions Low CO2 emissions Very low CO2 emissions Increasing CO2 Increasing temperatures
  • 45. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis LAND OCEAN CO2 Carbon dioxide
  • 46. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis CO2 Carbon dioxide CH4 Methane
  • 47. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis “The climate we experience in the future depends on our decisions now.
  • 48. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis 9 August 2021 #ClimateReport #IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis Thank you. @IPCC @IPCC_CH linkedin.com/company/ipcc IPCC: www.ipcc.ch Interactive Atlas: interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch IPCC Working Group I TSU: IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int More Information: Follow Us: