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McKinsey Survey: Indonesian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

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As the COVID-19 crisis continues, Indonesian consumers’ optimism about an economic recovery has continued to decline.

Indonesian consumer optimism has declined to its lowest level since the start of the coronavirus shutdowns in March. Consumers’ intent to purchase remains low for most discretionary categories, with a strong shift to online channels across categories, except for jewelry and tobacco. While at home, Indonesians have picked up new digital activities, such as remote learning and videoconferencing, and intend to continue using some of these after the crisis. Indonesians have been leaving their homes primarily to shop and work and are waiting for medical authority approval before engaging with out-out of home activities. Indonesians believe the impact of the crisis on their routines and finances will continue to last well beyond two months.

These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Indonesia from May 20–22, 2020. Check back for regular updates on Indonesian consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.

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McKinsey Survey: Indonesian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  1. 1. McKinsey & Company 1 Optimism about an economic recovery has declined to its lowest level since March Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Unsure: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 1 Q: How is your overall confidence level on economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. April 10–12 Indonesia April 25–26 May 20–22 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20–5/22/2020, n = 715; 4/25–4/26/2020, n = 711; 4/10–4/12/2020, n = 722; 4/3–4/6/2020, n = 718; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 691, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years 8% 6% 7% 9% 41% 45% 41% 48% 52% 51% 49% 53% 45% 39% 6% Mar 28–29 April 3–6
  2. 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Most Indonesians are being careful about spending, and two-thirds are cutting back Overall sentiment in the general population in Indonesia1 % of respondents 1 Q: Please indicate how strongly you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. Please select only one response for each statement; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Measures difference in “strongly agree/agree” between current and last pulse survey. 29% 18% 8% 9% 46% 41% 38% 33% 32% 30% 25% 41% 55% 59% 59% 65% 65% 82% 29% 1% 6% 17% 7% 5% Strongly disagree / disagree Somewhat disagree / agree Strongly agree / agree My family/friends’ health has been negatively affected by coronavirus or COVID-19 My job feels less secure because of the coronavirus or COVID-19 My ability to make financial ends meet has been negatively impacted by coronavirus or COVID-19 My ability to work has been reduced by coronavirus or COVID-19 Uncertainty about the economy is preventing me from making purchases or investments that I would otherwise make Given the economy and my personal finances, I have to be very careful how I spend my money Strongly agree/ agree difference since last survey2 -3 -10 -5 -3 -8 -2 -3 0 My income has been negatively impacted by coronavirus or COVID-19 I am cutting back on my spending Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715; 4/25–4/26/2020, n = 711, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years
  3. 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Household income1,2 % of respondents 1 Q: How has the COVID-19 situation affected your (family’s) overall available income, spending, and savings in the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: How do you think your overall available income, spending, and savings may change in the next two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Three-quarters of Indonesians have experienced decreased income and savings, though most are spending more Household spending1,2 % of respondents April 25–26 May 20–22 April 25–26 May 20–22 Household savings1,2 % of respondents April 25–26 May 20–22 Reduce slightly / reduce a lot About the same Increase slightly / increase a lot Next 2 weeksPast 2 weeks 51% 5% 24% 72%71% Past 2 weeks 3% 25% 10% 39% 22% 57%54% 24% Past 2 weeks 23% 20% Past 2 weeks 46% 19% 35% Next 2 weeks 9% 7% 14% 73% 20% Past 2 weeks 77% Past 2 weeks 11% 27% 62% Next 2 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715; 4/25–4/26/2020, n = 711, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years
  4. 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Consumers are spending more on some non-essentials, including snacks and entertainment 12 28 39 57 73 79 68 63 68 75 17 9 16 44 58 41 30 12 15 6 5 10 6 20 32 20 9 8 Alcohol Footwear Tobacco products Groceries Snacks Food takeout & delivery Jewelry Quick-service restaurant Skin care & makeup Restaurant Apparel 5 Accessories Furnishings & appliances Household supplies Non-food child products Personal-care products 3 Expected spending per category over the next 2 weeks compared to usual1 % of respondents Decrease Stay the same Increase 24 48 75 87 60 66 50 66 74 75 88 83 91 88 37 12 9 8 8 6 6 Gasoline Entertainment at home Books/magazines/newspapers Fitness & wellness Consumer electronics 4 Out-of-home entertainment Pet-care services Personal-care services Vehicle purchases Short-term home rentals 4Travel by car Cruises 4Adventures & tours International flights Hotel/resort stays 3Domestic flights 4 4 2 Net intent2 +13 -36 -71 -83 N/A3 -51 -58 -42 -60 -72 -71 N/A3 -84 -77 -87 -85 Net intent2 +29 +3 +23 -50 +2 -27 -42 N/A3 -67 -74 -63 -53 -62 -72 +4 -35 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 3 Insufficient sample (n < 30). Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years N/A3 N/A3N/A3
  5. 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Consumers plan to shop more online for most categories, with the exceptions of tobacco and jewelry 1 Q: And where do you expect you’ll buy these categories? Tell us if you will shop in the following places more, about the same, or less in the next two weeks; please note, if you don’t buy in one of these places today and won’t in next two weeks, please select “N/A”; did not ask this question for categories not shown. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease shopping frequency from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase shopping frequency. Expected change in shopping channel per category over the next 2 weeks1 Axes show net intent,2 bubble size relative to share of respondents that have purchased category in last 6 months 10-5-15 -30 -70 -20 0 15 -10 -10 5 20 5025 30 0 35 40 10 45 55 -60 -50 -40 -20 Footwear Books/ magazines/ newspapers Furnishings & appliances Groceries Food takeout & delivery Snacks Household supplies (e.g., cleaning, laundry) Personal-care products (e.g., soap, shampoo) Skin care & makeup Fitness & wellness Non-food child products (e.g., diapers) Apparel Accessories Jewelry Tobacco Entertainment at home (e.g., Netflix) Consumer electronics Household essentials Discretionary Entertainment at home In-store Online Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years
  6. 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents More than one-quarter of consumers have switched brands and retailers, and many expect to continue after the crisis 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started? 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; “will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” 31% 27% 22% 20% 17% Switched to store brand Shopped new website: basics Changed primary grocery store Shopped new website: non-basics Shopped new grocery store 61% 56% 60% 54% Intent to continue2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years 65%
  7. 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Consumers expect to continue spending more time cooking, consuming video content, learning online, and connecting virtually 8% 9% 11% 6% 9% 10% 20% 11% 14% 17% 11% 35% 35% 43% 41% 31% 41% 42% 49% 59% 56% 54% 51% 50% 50% 49% 48% 45% 41% 40% 40% Cooking at home Social media 33% Reading news online Remote learning Texting, chatting, messaging Video content Movies or shows 41% Home repair, gardening Live news Online shopping for groceries Meditation/mindfulness Decrease Stay the same IncreaseExpected change to time allocation over the next 2 weeks1 % of respondents 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, how much time do you expect to spend on these activities compared to how much time you normally spend on them? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease time spent from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase time spent. Net intent2 +51 +47 +43 +45 +41 +40 +29 +37 +31 +24 +29 +39 +37 +34 +33 +30 +26 +25 +14 -1 -18 -25 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years
  8. 8. McKinsey & Company 8 Public health, uncertainty about the duration of the situation, and family safety are still the top concerns for Indonesians 58% 57% 56% 53% 52% 52% 49% 44% 44% 39% 37% 34% 34% Contributing to the spread of the virus The Indonesian economy Overall public health Not knowing how long the situation will last Negative impact on my job or income Safety of myself or my family Health of my relatives in vulnerable populations Taking care of my family Not being able to make ends meet My personal health Not being able to get the supplies I need Impact on upcoming travel plans Impact on upcoming events 1 Q: What concerns you most about the COVID-19 situation? Possible answers: “not a concern”; “minimally concerned”; “somewhat concerned”; “very concerned”; “extremely concerned.” Largest concerns of the Indonesian population related to COVID-191 % of respondents who are very concerned or extremely concerned Very concerned / extremely concerned 58% of Indonesians are very/extremely concerned about overall public health Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years
  9. 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Indonesians continue to believe the personal and financial impact from COVID-19 will last beyond two months 29% 39% 16% 4–6 months 6% 10% 0–1 month 2–3 months 7–12 months More than one year 6% 7% 31% 32% 16% 8% No impact 7–12 months 4–6 months 0–1 month 2–3 months More than one year Adjustments to routines1 % of respondents Impact on personal/household finances2 % of respondents ~84% believe it will take another 2+ months before routines can return to normal, no change from the last pulse survey ~87% believe their finances will be impacted for 2+ months by the COVID-19 situation, down from 90% in the last pulse survey 1 Q: How long do you believe you need to adjust your routines, given the current COVID-19 situation, before things return back to normal in Indonesia (e.g., government lifts restrictions on events/travel)? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: How long do you believe your personal/household finances will be impacted by the COVID-19 situation? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years
  10. 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Post-COVID-19, consumers plan to reduce in-person activities as well as online shopping 26% 27% 37% 40% 44% 51% 52% 55% 56% 44% 38% 32% 24% 17% 18% 16% 18% 19% 19% 13% 50%Shop online for groceries 29% Shop in physical grocery stores 45%Shop online (non-grocery) Shop in physical stores (non-grocery) Domestic travel 30%Go to the mall International travel Go to movies, concerts, etc. Decrease Stay the same IncreaseExpectations for post-COVID-19 behavioral intent relative to pre-COVID 191 % of respondents Net intent2 -10 -19 -24 -26 -32 -2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years 1 Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided, which of the following do you think you will do more or less compared to before the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started? Possible answers: “will reduce this”; “will do the same as before coronavirus”; “will increase this.” Excludes work-from-home category. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease time spent from the % of respondents stating to increase time spent. -33 -42
  11. 11. McKinsey & Company 11 34% 32% 5% 11% 7% 4% 2% Meal-kit delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Restaurant delivery Grocery delivery In-store self-checkout 4%Restaurant curbside pickup Buy online for in-store pickup Store curbside pickup Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the COVID-19 situation started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Insufficient sample (n < 30). Indonesians have picked up new digital and low-touch activities, including video chat and remote learning Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years 28% 19% 20% 18% 16% 5% 6% 8% 6% 23% 16% 11% 3% 8% 16% 15% 8% 3% 8% 4% 3% 4% 5% Remote learning: myself Watching e-sports Online fitness Video chat: personal TikTok Online streaming Videoconferencing: professional Remote learning: my children Spending time outdoors 2% Wellness app Telemedicine: physical Telemedicine: mental Digital exercise machine Playing online games Not using Using moreUsing less / the same Just started using Consumers have intensified their usage of many activities, including restaurant delivery, grocery delivery, online streaming, and playing online games N/A2 N/A2 N/A2 N/A2 N/A2 N/A2
  12. 12. McKinsey & Company 12 Consumer changes to digital and low-touch activities fall into four primary buckets 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; “will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”, “will increase this.” 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were either: increased usage users, same usage users, or reduced usage users. UsergrowthsinceCOVID-192 High(>30%)Low(<30%) Intent to use after COVID-191 Percentage of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 Low (<65%) Medium-high (>65%) Works for now Activities necessitated by COVID-19 that are poor substitutes for in-person counterparts—and consequently have lower intent to continue Highly accelerated shifts Satisfactory digital replacements for in-person activities and connectivity, with growing adoption Potentially here to stay New and familiar forms of entertainment and interaction with medium-high intent to continue  User growth is defined as the percent of respondents who replied that they are new users over the percent of respondents who replied that they were using this service pre-COVID-19  Intent to continue is defined as the percent of respondents who replied that, post-COVID-19, they will: keep their usage at the same level or will increase usage Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years Status quo Activities having no significant growth in usage since COVID-19 and low intent to continue
  13. 13. McKinsey & Company 13 UsergrowthsinceCOVID-192 Intent to use after COVID-191 Percentage of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 Post-COVID-19 intent to continue is higher for online streaming, contactless purchase, and telemedicine 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same or using less). 9% 74%Online streaming 18% 66%Watch e-sports User growth Intent to continue High(>30%)Low(<30%) Low (<65%) Medium-high (>65%) Works for now Highly accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Wellness app 35% 69% User growth Intent to continue Remote learning: my children 69% 59% Videoconferencing: professional 68% 59% Video chat: personal 33% 58% 29% 67%Online fitness Telemedicine: physical 62% 73% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years Telemedicine: mental 42% 63% Remote learning: myself 36% 62% Restaurant curbside pick-up 30% 46% Playing online games 9% 59% 15% 71%Grocery delivery 21% 78%Buy online for in-store pickup 3% 83%Restaurant delivery TikTok 35% 57% Status quo User growth Intent to continue User growth Intent to continue
  14. 14. McKinsey & Company 14 Cleanliness is the most important factor for consumers as they decide where to shop in-store Top priorities when deciding where to shop in-store1 % of respondents for whom this criterion is the most important2 1 Q: Once restrictions lift, which of the following factors will be most important to you as you decide which of these places to visit in person? Respondents were asked to select the most important. 2 The following categories are included in each bucket: Cleaning and sanitization—increased cleaning, improved air filtration, availability of sanitizing supplies throughout the store; Health checks—customer wellness check (e.g., temperature) on entry, employees' wellness check (e.g., temperature) on entry; Masks and barriers—customers and employees wear masks, customers and employees provided masks and gloves, plastic barrier with cashier; No-contact purchasing—curbside pick-up, cashier-less checkout, no contact delivery, buy online for pickup in store; Physical distancing—customer number limit, distancing in customer line, reduced employee activity during shopping hours; Store regulations—no customer product testing, one-way store aisles, special hours for high-risk shoppers. 42% 21% 21% 9% 5% 2% Masks and barriers No-contact purchasing Cleaning and sanitization Physical distancing Store regulations Health checks Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years
  15. 15. McKinsey & Company 15 Consumers have been reengaging in a number of out-of-home activities, and more intend to do so in the near future Consumers’ engagement with activities outside home1 % of respondents 1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Chart represents the percentage of respondents who indicated that they left home at least once during the past week to do this activity. Q: For which of the following activities do you intend to leave your home to do in the next two weeks? Chart represents % of respondents who intend to leave their home to do this activity during the next two weeks. 86% 53% 37% 30% 25% 24% 22% 17% 14% 13% 9% 8% 8% 6% Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years Shop for groceries/necessities Shop for non-necessities Get together with family Work outside my home Drive more than 2 hours from home Get together with friends Visit a crowded outdoor public place Use public transportation Dine in at a restaurant or bar Travel by airplane Go to a hair or nail salon Use ride-sharing service Go out for family entertainment Attend a large event Past 2 weeks Next 2 weeks 93% 78% 66% 61% 48% 55% 46% 48% 36% 38% 37% 33% 33% 28%
  16. 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Milestones for the Indonesia population not yet engaging with out-of-home activities1 % of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging Of consumers waiting to restart out-of-home activities, 85 percent are looking to see milestones beyond the lifting of restrictions 1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important. 74 11 15 Government lifts restriction + other requirement Only once there’s a vaccine or treatment Government lifts restrictions Medical authorities deem safe 36% Stores, restaurants, and other indoor places start taking safety measures 28% I see other people returning 10% Government lifts restrictions and… Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled to match Indonesia's general population 20+ years
  17. 17. McKinsey & Company 17 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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