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McKinsey: Survey: Indonesian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

Indonesian consumers are optimistic about their country’s post-COVID-19 economic recovery, but remain mindful of how they spend their money.

These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Indonesia from September 21–30, 2020. Check back for regular updates on Indonesian consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.

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McKinsey: Survey: Indonesian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  1. 1. McKinsey & Company 1 We have seen five fundamental shifts to consumer behavior, some of which will have a lasting impact, as a result of the pandemic Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia general population 18+ years Up to 60% net increase in intent to spend online even post-COVID-19 2. Flight to digital and omnichannel Up to 40% net decrease in intent to spend on most discretionary categories 1. Shift to value and essentials 92% of Indonesian consumers have tried a new shopping behavior in the past three months 3. Shock to loyalty 78% of Indonesian consumers are not yet resuming “normal” out-of- home activities 4. Homebody economy 5. New holiday outlook 87% of households plan to maintain or decrease holiday spending
  2. 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 1 Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey Spain 9/24–27 UK 9/24–27 Italy 9/24–27 China 9/16–24 Brazil 9/21–25 France 9/24–27 10 17 12 20 28 17 37 26 35 42 31 32 38 45 53 52 51 66 47 60 53 47 62 58 58 39 35 28 20 17 17 14 12 11 7 4 US 9/18–24 S. Africa 9/18–29 Japan 9/22–28 India 9/1–27 8 38 53 Unsure: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/ fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Shift to value and essentials Indonesian confidence in the country’s economic recovery is among the highest in the world Indonesia 9/21–30 Mexico 9/21–28 Germany 9/24–27
  3. 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 1 Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 9% 6% 6% 7% 9% 8% 8% 40% 45% 41% 48% 52% 52% 38% 51% 49% 53% 45% 39% 40% 53% Sep 21-30May 20–22Apr 25–26Mar 28–29 Apr 3–6 Apr 10–12 June 19–21 Indonesia Mixed: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression / fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Shift to value and essentials Consumers’ optimism in Indonesia’s economy has returned to levels last seen in March Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21-9/30/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/21/2020, n = 726; 5/20–5/22/2020, n = 715; 4/25–4/26/2020, n = 711; 4/10–4/12/2020, n = 722; 4/3–4/6/2020, n = 718; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 691, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  4. 4. McKinsey & Company 4 1 Q: How long do you believe you need to adjust your routines, given the current COVID-19 situation, before things return back to normal (e.g., government lifts restrictions on events/travel)? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: How long do you believe your personal/household finances will be impacted by the COVID-19 situation? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 13% 15% 27% 31%4–6 months 15% 0–1 month 2–3 months 7–12 months More than one year 9% 18% 28% 24% 17% 7–12 months 5% No impact 2–3 months 0–1 month 4–6 months More than one year Adjustments to routines1 % of respondents Impact on personal/household finances2 % of respondents ~59% believe it will take another 4+ months before routines can return to normal, up from 55% in the last pulse survey ~69% believe their finances will be impacted for another 4+ months by the COVID-19 situation, up from 62% in the last pulse survey Shift to value and essentials Still, most Indonesians continue to believe the personal and financial impact from COVID-19 will last longer than another four months Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/21/2020 ,n = 726, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  5. 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Household income1,2 % of respondents 1 Q: How has the COVID-19 situation affected your (family’s) overall available income, spending, and savings in the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: How do you think your overall available income, spending, and savings may change in the next two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Household spending1,2 % of respondents June 19–21 September 21–30 June 19–21 September 21–30 Household savings1,2 % of respondents June 19–21 September 21-30 Shift to value and essentials About the sameReduce slightly / reduce a lot Increase slightly / increase a lot 63% 3% 26% Past 2 weeks 25% 18% 72% 11% Past 2 weeks 41% 41% Next 2 weeks 6% 17% 77% 20% 67% Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks 30% 13% 19% 51% Next 2 weeks More than 60 percent of Indonesians have seen reductions in income and savings, yet around 50 percent have increased spending Past 2 weeks 23% 52% 51% 25% 26% 23% Past 2 weeks 38% 45% 17% Next 2 weeks Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034; 6/19–6/21/2020, n = 726; sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  6. 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Change in shopping mindset since COVID-191 % of respondents 1 Q: Which best describes how often you are doing each of the following items? Possible answers: “doing less since coronavirus started”; “doing about the same since coronavirus started”; “doing more since coronavirus started”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Shift to value and essentials 6% 7% 8% 6% 7% 33% 37% 39% 52% 53% 62% 56% 53% 42% 41% Becoming more mindful of where I spend my money 100% Spending time planning / making lists for shopping trips Looking for ways to save money when shopping Changing to less expensive products to save money Researching brand and product choices before buying Doing moreDoing less Doing about the same Indonesians are becoming more mindful of how they spend their money and are increasingly looking for ways to save Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  7. 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 % of respondents 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 3 Not included or insufficient sample (n = < 75) in first survey. 4 Based on small subset (n < 100) of sample population. 7 22 28 35 41 49 60 52 55 56 59 12 9 14 35 51 21 43 31 15 25 16 14 11 16 9 26 30 22 15 12 26 Groceries Accessories Snacks Alcohol Tobacco products Food takeout & delivery Quick-service restaurant Restaurant 10 Footwear 10Apparel Jewelry Non-food child products Household supplies Personal-care products Skin care & makeup Furnishings & appliances OTC medicines Decrease Increase Stay the same 11 16 49 61 50 37 32 46 29 50 55 46 25 64 42 59 55 49 36 15 19 12 23 16 14 19 12 14 20 11 24 14 16 Vehicle purchases Fitness & wellness Out-of-home entertainment Consumer electronics Vitamins/supplements Entertainment at home 10 Books/magazines/newspapers Pet-care services Personal-care services Gasoline Short-term home rentals Travel by car Cruises4 Adventures & tours International flights Hotel/resort stays Domestic flights Net intent2Net intent2 +36 +14 +21 -39 +9 -13 -10 -25 -35 -50 -41 -40 -50 +8 -20 +5 +20 -34 -51 -31 -25 -9 -30 -15 -31 -43 -32 -5 -53 -18 -45 -39 +38 Net intent: Above +1 Net intent: -15 to 0 Net intent: Below -15 Change since first survey Change since first survey Shift to value and essentials Intent for discretionary spending remains low as Indonesians prioritize essentials such as groceries and household supplies -12 -5 +7 -11 N/A3 +35 +27 +14 -4 +22 +15 +2 -26 -13 -4 +4 N/A3 N/A3 -4 -11 +14 +50 N/A3 +26 +31 +31 +25 +23 +40 N/A3 +28 +54 +37 +39 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/39/2020, n = 1,034; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 691, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years -45
  8. 8. McKinsey & Company 8 More people expect to make a portion of their purchases online post-COVID-19 than before… Consumers’ use of online channel before and expected use after COVID-191,2 % of respondents purchasing online3 1 Q: Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started, what proportion of your purchases in this category were online vs from a physical store/in person? 2 Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided, tell us what proportion of your purchases in this category you think will be online vs from a physical store/in person? 3 Includes respondents who chose “some online,” “most online,” and “all online.” Respondents who indicated that they have not bought the category online and do not intend to do so in the next two weeks are classified as not purchasing online. 4 Expected growth after COVID-19 compared to pre-COVID-19 slightly lower than previous waves due to respondents reporting higher online activity in pre-COVID-19 situation. 29 34 31 48 46 36 42 57 39 46 60 53 55 62 49 68 56 66 65 82 Groceries +21 +17 Household supplies +24 +13 Over-the-counter medicine Books, magazines, newspapers +30 +23 +25Snacks +21 +28Furnishings & appliances +11 Vitamins/supplements +25Alcohol +16Tobacco +18 Fitness & wellness Personal-care products +23Skin care & makeup Non-food child products +20Footwear +19Consumer electronics +20Food takeout & delivery Jewelry Accessories +14 +15Apparel +13 Entertainment at home Pre-COVID-19 Expected growth after COVID-19 % growth in customers purchasing category online +83% +74% +68% +63% +61% +58% +55% +44% +41% +39% +38% +38% +35% +32% +27% +25% +25% +23% +20% +13% Flight to digital and omnichannel Up to 60% growth in consumers who purchase online for most categories4 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  9. 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Consumers’ use of online channel before and expected use after COVID-191,2 % of respondents purchasing most or all online3 1 Q: Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started, what proportion of your purchases in this category were online vs from a physical store/in person? 2 Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided, tell us what proportion of your purchases in this category you think will be online vs from a physical store/in person? 3 Respondents who indicated that they have not bought the category online and do not intend to do so in the next two weeks are classified as not purchasing online. 4 Expected growth after COVID-19 compared to pre-COVID-19 slightly lower than previous waves due to respondents reporting higher online activity in pre-COVID-19 situation. % growth in customers purchasing category most or all online Up to 165% growth in consumers who purchase most or all online across categories4 …with many consumers planning to shift almost completely online Flight to digital and omnichannel Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years 11 11 8 19 16 12 17 29 19 10 27 23 20 26 20 32 27 24 29 60 Snacks Jewelry +25 +18 +24 Over-the-counter medicine +31 +29 Consumer electronics +27 Skin care & makeup +17 Groceries +14 +11 Books, magazines, newspapers +20Furnishings & appliances +17Household supplies +26Vitamins/supplements +20Alcohol Tobacco Apparel +19 Entertainment at home Personal-care products Footwear Non-food child products +27Food takeout & delivery +20 +16 +23Accessories +13Fitness & wellness +23 Pre-COVID-19 Expected growth after COVID-19 +168% +165% +165% +164% +125% +147% +149% +69% +57% +193% +92% +103% +138% +101% +100% +70% +48% +122% +82% +27%
  10. 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the COVID-19 situation started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; “will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 3 Not included in the survey/data not available. 19% 12% 10% 4% 3% 6% 4% 6% 11% 12% 5% 42% 36% 23% 6% 6% 11% 6% 16% 16% 21% 11% 4% 8% 5% 3% 4% 8% 5% 10% 4% 5% 5% Buy online for in-store pickup Meal-kit delivery Store curbside pickup Used a new store/restaurant app Purchased directly from social media Purchased pre-owned products In-store self-checkout Used deal-finding plug-ins Restaurant delivery Grocery delivery Restaurant curbside pickup Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Just started using Using more Using same/less Not using Intent to continue,2 % 69% 65% N/A3 61% 74% 49% 61% 50% 57% 71% 67% 75% Flight to digital and omnichannel Indonesians have intensified the usage of restaurant and grocery delivery and intend to continue these habits post-COVID-19 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years N/A3
  11. 11. McKinsey & Company 11 Intent to use after COVID-191 Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 UsergrowthsinceCOVID-192 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Flight to digital and omnichannel Many Indonesians intend to continue their food delivery and online shopping habits even after the crisis is over Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Works for now Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years 1 8160575049 79 8347 850 0 100 3 51 53 8755 6359 61 65 67 50 69 70 71 8073 75 77 New store/restaurant app Store curbside pickup Grocery delivery Restaurant delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Buy online for in-store pickup In-store self-checkout Restaurant curbside pickup Purchased pre-owned products online Purchased from social media Deal-finding plug-ins
  12. 12. McKinsey & Company 12 Have you used any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents Nine out of ten Indonesians have tried a new shopping behavior, and most intend to continue their new habits beyond the crisis 1 Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started (i.e., in the past ~3 months), which of the following have you done? 2 Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” 3 “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps. Intent to continue2 85% 84% 77% 88% 82% 92% Consumers have tried a new shopping behavior Shock to loyalty Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years 56% 47% 32% 31% 15%Private label/store brand Different retailer/store/website New digital shopping method Different brand New shopping method3
  13. 13. McKinsey & Company 13 More than 60 percent of Indonesian consumers cite value and convenience as drivers for trying new places to shop Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website in the past three months1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three 1 Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started. What was the main reason you decided to try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to 3. 37% 26% 19% 28% 22% 17% 11% 35% 19% 10% 22% 7% 21% Can get all the items I need from one place Better prices/promotions Better shipping/delivery costs Better value Less crowded / has shorter lines More easily accessible from my home Offers good delivery/pickup options Offers natural/organic options Products are in stock Better quality Supporting local businesses The company treats its employees well Cleaner / has better hygiene measures Value Purpose-driven Quality/organic Health/hygiene Availability Convenience x% Net % of respondents per category 62% 63% 35% 29% 26% 21% Shock to loyalty Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  14. 14. McKinsey & Company 14 More than 75 percent of consumers who tried a new brand cite value as a driver Reason for trying a new brand in the past three months1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three 1 Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What was the main reason that drove this decision? Select up to 3. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Quality/organic Value Convenience Purpose-driven Health/hygiene Availability x% Net % of respondents per category 44% 78% 27% 27% 24% 24% Shock to loyalty 45% 29% 27% 13% 27% 22% 27% 17% 11% 24% 24% Is natural/organic Cleaner / has better hygiene measures Larger package sizes Better prices/promotions Better value Better shipping/delivery costs Products are in stock Better quality Supporting local businesses The company treats its employees well Is available where I’m shopping Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  15. 15. McKinsey & Company 15 Consumers buying based on company behavior1 % of respondents 1 Q: Which best describes how often you are doing each of the following items? Possible answers: “doing less since coronavirus started”; “doing about the same since coronavirus started”; “doing more since coronavirus started.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Consumers are paying increased attention to healthy and hygienic packaging 7% 8% 8% 10% 14% 46% 53% 54% 59% 59% 47% 39% 38% 32% 26%Company’s purpose/values Healthy and hygienic packaging 100% How companies take care of the safety of their employees Sustainable/eco-friendly products Retailers promotion of sustainable solutions Doing less Doing moreDoing about the same Shock to loyalty Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  16. 16. McKinsey & Company 16Source: McKinsey 2020–21 Global Sentiment Survey Consumers are much more likely to trade down to less expensive brands this year than last year 8 26 12 7 3.3x Trade down Trade up 2019 2020 10 32 11 2 5 24 13 7 5 23 14 12 Indonesia income tiers, household, monthly > RP 37,500,000RP 8,500,001–37,500,000< RP 8,500,000 Trade-off behavior in a standard shopping basket by income tier1,2 %, September 2020 and September 2019 1 Q: Please indicate how your buying behavior has changed in a standard shopping basket for the items shown in the past 12 months (since September 2019). Possible mutually exclusive answers: “switching to less expensive brands”; “buying the same brand as I bought 12 months ago, but at stores with lower prices”; “buying only when on sale or with coupon”; “buying less frequently of lower quantity of the same brand”; “switching to more expensive/premium brands”; “have made some other change in how I buy these products”; “have not made changes in how I buy these products.” 2 Base for trade-off behavior is customers who have changed behavior. Shock to loyalty
  17. 17. McKinsey & Company 17 Milestones for Indonesia population not yet engaging with out-of-home activities1 % of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging Few Indonesians are engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities as they wait for indicators beyond lifting of government restrictions 1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 61 20 19 Government lifts restrictions + other requirement Government lifts restrictions Only once there’s a vaccine or treatment Medical authorities deem safe 21% Stores, restaurants, and other indoor places start taking safety measures 19% I see other people returning 7% Government lifts restrictions and… 78% of people are not currently engaging in “normal” out-of- home activities, down from 79% in the last survey Homebody economy ~16% of Indonesians will not engage in “normal” out-of-home activities until there is a vaccine or treatment (down from 23% in the last pulse survey) Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  18. 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Most Indonesians are concerned about attending large events, using public transportation, and traveling by airplane Consumers’ level of concern undertaking various activities1 % of respondents 1 Q: How worried would you be if you were to do the following activities in the next two weeks? Possible answers: “not worried at all”; “not very worried”; “somewhat worried”; “very worried”; “extremely worried.”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Level of concern is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they “not worried at all” and “not very worried” from “very worried” and “extremely worried.” Level of concern2 74 66 65 59 62 56 59 54 46 43 52 50 43 18 22 13 -1 520% 16% 30% 13% 19% 9% 8% 9% 9% 6% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 55% 55% 41% 53% 45% 42% 41% 38% 36% 39% 34% 34% 32% 31% 32% 27% 26% 25% 18% 25% 29% 29% 35% 37% 49% 51% 52% 55% 56% 59% 60% 62% 64% 64% 68% 70% 71% 78% Shop for non-necessities Drive more than 2 hours from home Travel by airplane Shop for groceries/necessities Stay in a hotel Work outside my home Rent a short-term home Get together with family Use ride-sharing service Dine at a restaurant or bar Go to a hair or nail salon Visit a crowded outdoor public place Go to a shopping mall Get together with friends Go to the gym or fitness studio Go out for family entertainment Use public transportation Use a clothing rental service Attend a large event WorriedSomewhat worriedNot worried Homebody economy 40 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  19. 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Masks and barriers are an increasing priority to consumers as they decide where to shop in-store Top priorities when deciding where to shop in-store1 % of respondents for whom this criterion is the most important2 1 Q: Once restrictions lift, which of the following factors will be most important to you as you decide which of these places to visit in person? Respondents were asked to select the most important. 2 The following categories are included in each bucket: Cleaning and sanitization—increased cleaning, improved air filtration, availability of sanitizing supplies throughout the store; Health checks—customer wellness check (e.g., temperature) on entry, employees' wellness check (e.g., temperature) on entry; Masks and barriers—customers and employees wear masks, customers and employees provided masks and gloves, plastic barrier with cashier; No-contact purchasing—curbside pick-up, cashier-less checkout, no-contact delivery, buy online for pickup in store; Physical distancing—customer number limit, distancing in customer line, reduced employee activity during shopping hours; Store regulations—no customer product testing, one-way store aisles, special hours for high-risk shoppers. Homebody economy Change since the first measure, pp. +6 +21 -18 -7 +3 +3 31% 21% 16% 15% 11% 6%Store regulations Health checks Masks and barriers No-contact purchasing Cleaning and sanitization Physical distancing Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034; 5/20/2020–5/22/2020, n = 715, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  20. 20. McKinsey & Company 20 Indonesians intend to slightly increase their level of engagement with out-of-home entertainment over the next two weeks Consumers’ engagement with activities outside home1,2 % of respondents 1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Chart represents the percentage of respondents who indicated that they left home at least once during the past week to do this activity. 2 Q: For which of the following activities do you intend to leave your home to do in the next two weeks? Chart represents % of respondents who intend to leave their home to do this activity during the next two weeks. 73% 61% 39% 37% 34% 32% 27% 17% 21% 16% 13% 11% 8% 13% 9% Past 2 weeks Next 2 weeks There is a strong correlation between concern in participating in a particular out-of- home activity and intent to participate (R2~0.9), suggesting that out-of-home activity engagement is driven by individuals’ level of concern with the activity Homebody economy 74% 57% 41% 34% 33% 30% 23% 17% 17% 16% 15% 11% 10% 9% 8% Drive more than 2 hours away from home Shop for groceries/necessities Get together with friends Use ride-sharing service Get together with family Work outside my home Shop for non-necessities Dine at a restaurant or bar Visit a crowded outdoor public place Travel on public transportation Go to a hair or nail salon Go to the gym or fitness studio Travel by airplane Go out for family entertainment Attend a large event Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  21. 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Feel unsafe Somewhat unsafe 30% 31% 39%Feel safe Top activities eager to get back to2 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices 40% 33% 34% Get together with family Go out for family entertainment 35% 23% Visit a crowded outdoor public place Attend a concert, sporting event, movie, etc. Get together with friends 29%Interact with coworkers in person 25% 13% Shop for non-necessities at shopping mall/department store Dine indoors at a restaurant/bar 17% Travel by airplane 9%Go to a hair or nail salon 7%Go to gym or fitness studio Indonesians are most eager to get together with family, visit a crowded outdoor public place, and go out for family entertainment Level of comfort with out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents 1 Q: What best describes your comfort participating in activities you did prior to COVID-19? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: What best describes your comfort participating in activities you did prior to COVID-19? If answered “somewhat unsafe or unsafe,” Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Select up to 3. Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  22. 22. McKinsey & Company 22 Higher-income and Greater Jakartan consumers are the majority of households maintaining or increasing out-of-home activity 1 Q: Which is your current level of engagement with out-of-home activities (e.g., get together with family or friends, dine at bar or restaurant, etc.)? Possible answers: “minimum levels”; “less than before the coronavirus situation started”; “a similar number of activities as before the coronavirus situation started”; “more activities than before the coronavirus situation started.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Sum of respondents answering “minimum levels” and “less than before the coronavirus situation started.” 3 Sum of respondents answering “a similar number of activities as before the coronavirus situation started” and “more activities than before the coronavirus situation started.” 16% 9% 56% 35% 19% 27% 9% 29% GenX BoomersGenZ Millennials 36% 23% 31% 24% 33% 54% > RP 37.5MRP 8.5–37.5M< RP 8.5M 37% 68% 32% 15% 31% 18% Rest of IndonesiaTier 1 CitiesGreater Jakarta By regionBy generation By income (monthly) Less engagement2 Same/more engagement3 Out-of-home engagement level1 % of respondents Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  23. 23. McKinsey & Company 23 Indonesians have acquired at-home alternatives to out-of-home activities, such as remote learning and video conferencing 15% 4% 6% 4% 3% 5% 4% 6% 5% 26% 13% 7% 8% 13% 7% 43% 21% 21% 18% 15% 13% 6% 10% 8% 47% 26% 11% 17% 45% 13% 6% 21% 8% 17% 25% 10% 5% 6% 6% 4% 6% 4% 5% 7% Remote learning: my children Wellness app Digital exercise machine Watching e-sports Remote learning: myself Telemedicine: physical Video chat: personal Personal care/grooming at home Playing online games Cooked regularly for myself/my family TikTok Videoconferencing: professional Social media Online streaming Online fitness Telemedicine: mental 1% Not using Using moreUsing less / the same Just started usingHave you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents Intent to continue,2 % 67% 52% 56% 53% 48% 65% 66% 74% 73% 74% 55% 88% N/A 3 50% 60% 56% 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the COVID-19 situation started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “ will increase this” among new or increased users. 3 Not included in the survey / data not available. Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years N/A 3
  24. 24. McKinsey & Company 24 UsergrowthsinceCOVID-192 Intent to use after COVID-191 Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; “will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). The COVID-19 crisis has accelerated the adoption of at-home alternatives, many of which are likely to remain long-term Homebody economy Works for now Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years 50 500 87857555 60 65 0 100 70 888280 81 83 84 86 150 200 Telemedicine: physical TikTok Playing online games Video chat: personal Remote learning: myself Remote learning: my children Wellness app Telemedicine: mental Online fitness Used social media Personal care/ grooming at home Online streaming Watching e-sports Cooked regularly Videoconferencing: professional
  25. 25. McKinsey & Company 25 Online streaming and grocery and restaurant delivery recruited the most new and increased users compared to other at-home alternatives 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the COVID-19 situation started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 3 Change since first survey is calculated by dividing the difference in % new/increased users between Sep’20 and Apr’20 by the Apr’20 figure. 4 Data not available. Have you started/increased usage since COVID-19 started1,2 % of respondents 49 46 44 43 40 35 29 30 21 17 28 19 11 10 10 24 16 14 12 Restaurant delivery Telemedicine: mental Online streaming Videoconferencing: professional Grocery delivery Remote learning: my children Remote learning: myself Video chat: personal Playing online games Store curbside pickup Watching e-sports TikTok Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Buy online for in-store pickup Restaurant curbside pickup In-store self-checkout Telemedicine: physical Wellness app Online fitness Change since April survey,3 %New/increased users -36% -78% -70% N/A 4 N/A 4 -25% -43% -54% -54% -62% -58% -54% N/A 4 N/A 4 -72% N/A 4 -81% -86% -83% Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034; 4/25–4/26/2020, n = 711, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  26. 26. McKinsey & Company 26 Online only 27% 71% Hybrid 2% In-person only 1 Q: What education format is your child/children’s school primarily using today? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: Please indicate how strongly you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. Statements include: “I expect remote learning to be a key education format for formal and/or informal education for the next 3 months”; “given the uncertainty of school openings, I am planning to spend more on at-home learning tools and equipment (e.g., tutoring services, desk equipment, electronics)”; “I have cut back my work hours given my child/children’s at-home learning needs.” Rated from 1 “strongly disagree” to 6 “strongly agree.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Remote learning is widespread and families expect it to continue; many are making changes to adapt Education format1 % of respondents Homebody economy 57 50 40 Expect online to continue for 3+ months Reduce work hours Invest in at-home learning tools Agree/Strongly agree Change in beliefs/behaviors for those with children in remote learning,2 % of respondents ~98% of children in some form of remote learning Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  27. 27. McKinsey & Company 27 1 Q: Please indicate how strongly you agree or disagree with each of the following statements: “I have cut back my work hours given my child/children’s at-home learning needs.” Rated from 1 “strongly disagree” to 6 “strongly agree.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Monthly income. Overall < RP 8.5M2 RP 8.5–37.5M2 > RP 37.5M2 50 Agree/Strongly agree 45 50 54 Reduction in work hours for those with children in remote learning1 % of respondents More than half of families with children in remote learning have reduced work hours to meet at-home learning needs Homebody economy 50% of families have reduced work hours Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  28. 28. McKinsey & Company 28 1 Q: How do you think your spending for the upcoming seasonal holidays (e.g., Singles Day, Black Friday, Christmas) may change compared with last year? Rated from 1 “significantly decrease” to 5 “significantly increase.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 77% 75% 62% 14% 11% 22% 8% 15% 15% > RP 37.5M< RP 8.5M RP 8.5–37.5M Most Indonesians plan to reduce holiday spending this year, regardless of income level New holiday outlook ~87% of households plan to maintain or decrease holiday spend 71% 16% 13% About the same Overall Spend more Spend less Overall By income (monthly) Net intent2 -58 -69 -60 -47 Holiday shopping spending intent1 % of respondents Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  29. 29. McKinsey & Company 29 13% 21% 66% More in store Overall More online About the same 1 Q: How do you think the way you shop for the upcoming seasonal holidays (e.g., Singles Day, Black Friday, Christmas) may change compared with last year? Rated from 1 “shop significantly more in-store/in-person” to 5 “shop significantly more online.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to spend more in store from the % of respondents stating they expect to spend more online. Holiday shopping channel preference1 % of respondents Two out of three consumers expect to shift to online for holiday shopping New holiday outlook 26% 11% Gen Z 53% 21% Millennials 71% 17% 12% 68% 21% Gen X 51% 36% 13% Baby Boomers 53 59 57 38 Overall By generation ~88% of Millennials plan to do as much or more of their holiday shopping online Net online intent2 32 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Indonesia Consumer Pulse Survey 9/21–9/30/2020, n = 1,034, sampled and weighted to match Indonesia's general population 18+ years
  30. 30. McKinsey & Company 30 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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