The document discusses the potential effects of climate change on British Columbia (BC), Canada according to a World Bank report. It notes rising temperatures will negatively impact forests, fisheries, agriculture and infrastructure in BC by 2050. Environmental effects include more floods and wildfires. The economy may be damaged by losses in the forest, fisheries and agriculture sectors. Urgent action is needed through international agreements and initiatives at all levels of government to mitigate climate change risks and adapt key industries to future conditions with fewer resources.

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Why British Columbia needs to Turn Down the Heat:
Climate Change & B.C., Canada:
A World Bank Coursera Final Project

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Outline
 Introduction:
 The World Bank’s “Turn Down the Heat” Report
 British Columbia, Canada
 Negative effects:
 Environmental effects
 Economic effects
 Health effects
 Implications
 Conclusion

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Introduction: World Bank Report
 World Bank Report “Turn Down the
Heat”:
 Must avoid a 4 degrees C increase in
global temperatures to avoid irreversible
climate change
 The frequency/severity of floods,
droughts, storms, and other natural
disasters are predicted to rise
 These events will have untold global
effects on the environment
 Climate change will effect key
industries, services & infrastructure
Image source: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Feature%20Story/ECA/Poalnd/Heat-Report-400x264-copy.jpg/_jcr_content/renditions/original

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Introduction:
B.C., Canada
 Location: Westernmost province of Canada
 Known for its natural beauty and diverse ecosystems
 However, Climate change is already affecting Canada!
 Canadian insurance companies: payouts have doubled every five years (since
1983) due to:
 Property damage
 Infrastructure damage
 More sickness
 Higher mortality
Image source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/130995712@N05/15782802834/in/photolist-q3EZqf-i9R261-fYaW2-dXL75-ebh8V-baWtw-baWz
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Environmental effects:
Rising temperatures
 By 2050:
 Greater Vancouver: Will have
average temperature of
Northern California
 Prince George Area:
Okanagan weather
 By 2080:
 Projections of further
warming of 0.9-1.8 degrees C

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Environmental effects:
Milder winters & drier summers
 B.C. lost 50% of snow pack in last 50-100 years
 Less snow runoff in summer
 less water for crops
 less water for hydropower/industries
 Annual precipitation increased 20%
 Spread of outbreaks (due to mild winters)
 Blue Stain Fungus
 Spread by Mountain Pine Beetle
 Affected area = 4 Vancouver Islands (13 million ha)
 Range could expand north & east
 More severe fires/droughts

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Environmental Effects:
The Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic
Image source: http://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2005_sept_update/bfp/img/bgt2005u_p1_tb_beetle2.gif

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Environmental Impacts:
What happened to the snow?
Image source: https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/graphics/maps/snowpack-early-2015-full-width-map.jpg

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Environmental effects:
Floods & Rising sea levels
 Changing rain/snow patterns: affects rivers, lakes, groundwater
 B.C. glaciers have steadily been retreating
 Faster melts/increased precipitation
  Floods in Fraser Valley, Interior regions and other areas in B.C.
 Low lying areas hit hardest (ie: Delta)
 Higher flood risk due to storms
 Sea Level Rise:
 4-12 cm along most of the coast
 Up to 16-34cm in Vancouver area over past century
 By 2050
 Northern B.C. coast: up to 30cm
 Northern Yukon: up to 50cm

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Environmental effects:
Sea Level Rise in the Lower Mainland
Source: Sierra Club of Canada, BC Chapter

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Environmental effects:
Species’ adaptation
 Forests: What trees will adapt to 2050 climate?
 Forests need 40-50 years to establish
 Trees can’t move as fast as climate
 North shore mountains
 Dying of stress
 Summer drought/Winter storms
 Western Red Cedar
 Iconic First Nations symbol
 May migrate to Northeastern B.C. (to Fort Nelson)
 May get taken over by early successional pine
(vulnerable to beetle)
 Pacific Northwest:
 Could lose 47% of plant species
 What species will take over?
Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/78791029@N04/10550975926/in/photolist-h5mvy3-89VbbU-79mqaJ-cbUtB1-ebgPeH-7pueyn-7pufjx-p2ZUm2-pGpvko-pYywKV-pGiGCz-8Xbz4A-8X
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Economic Effects:
Forest & Fisheries
 Large amounts of timber lost due to fire &
mountain pine beetle
 Fisheries may be affected by increased
glacier melt/warmer waters
 Acidification of water ways can prevent
shellfish larvae from properly developing
shells
 Zooplankton (with calcium carbonate
shells) are main food source for salmon
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/-annon/5295721297/in/photolist-94XXrB-5tsiK3-7fMQGz-fbGf1v-2VrGRW-dqrAS5-7r87wG-35XGZ4-2VrHmE-gvvAgD-dsxE3t-7j6GaC-i5JFm6-rVfq
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Economic Effects:
Agricultural sector
 Crops damaged by pests and extreme weather
 Risk of soil salinization
 Once soils are salty, nothing can be done
 Destroyed crops:
 2009: Spotted wing drosophila destroyed cherry crops in Okanagan
 2010: High precipitation destroyed much of the root crops in Delta
 2012: Drought in Peace River region
 Prince George:
 Will have Okanagan-type climate (warmer)
 Will there be enough water?

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Economic effects:
Damage to infrastructure
 Roads
 Milder winters
 More freeze/thaw cycles
 reduce life of road/maintenance cost
 Flooding
 2010: Highway to Bella Coola destroyed
(175 residents evacuated)
 Buildings
 By 2050, 2000-3000 homes at risk of floods
 At a cost of $2000/annum per resident by
2050s
 Fire season of 2003
 Destroyed 334 homes, 45,000 evacuated
Fire off Highway 20 (BC, Canada)
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/wanderin_weeta/4905826227/in/photolist-8tvDdP-8qks8X-8rREUR-fgsCnM-8gaRsn-6HH6Xf-2aTwrG-4d4WQu-4d4WPm-zJQWP-4cZXsz-6Qb3dU-4d4WS
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Health Effects:
 Air Quality:
 2010 fire season: air quality warnings issued by City of Vancouver and
Government of Alberta
 Stroke/Respiratory illness:
 Due to heat waves
 2009: 8 day heat wave in lower mainland
 Vancouver Coastal Health Authorities reported more deaths compared with
average
 More outbreaks:
 Cryptococcus gattii fungus (caused by milder winters)
 Since 1999: 129 infections, 4 deaths on Vancouver Island
 Psychological impacts:
 Due to evacuation from floods/fires

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Implications:
What needs to be done?
 Agricultural sector:
 Take advantage of improved agricultural systems (Northern B.C.)
 produce more food to support a growing population
 Need improved irrigation systems to combat water shortages
 Natural methods to eliminate crop pests/diseases
 Reduce dependency on US imports
 California current accounts for the majority of fruit & vegetable imports to B.C.
but agriculture sector now in crisis due to water shortages
 Forestry sector:
 Improve market for blue fungus stained timber destroyed by mountain pine beetle
 Reforest based on future forest structure projections
 Fisheries sector:
 Improve the fish farming industry
 Adapt market for changing fish stocks due to changing water system conditions

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Implications:
What needs to be done?
 Reduce carbon footprint
 Expand clean, public transportation
 Promote energy saving measures
 Invest in renewables
 Reduce dependency on hydroelectric power
 Avoid turning to fossil fuels to supplement energy demand
 Improve infrastructure:
 Better flood mitigation
 Improved road systems

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Conclusion:
 Major action needs to be taken
 International agreements (COP21 in Paris)
 By national, provincial, and municipal governments
 Communities need to work together to find feasible,
sustainable solutions
 New initiatives with future conditions in mind:
 A larger population
 Fewer resources
 More natural disturbances

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Sources:
 http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=4e21d69f-b3e3-4776-
99cf-2da3b2ee1104
 http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/topic.page?id=BE3D1E436EE14AD
E8255FA0AD060659C
 http://www.livesmartbc.ca/learn/effects.html
 http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Climate+change+imp
act+agriculture+study/8455586/story.html
 https://www.biv.com/article/2015/2/climate-change-looms-
major-threat-key-bc-industrie/