The zombie apocalypse - Survive it by knowing what to expect and how to properly respond. Learn what's going to happen when after an outbreak of the undead, why its going to happen that way, and what you can do about it. The search for resources drives many major aspects of human behavior, and economics is the study of how people distribute limited resources. This presentation is a promo for the guide I'm writing on surviving the zombie apocalypse by utilizing an understanding of the forces which shape the behaviors of people and zombies alike. Learn about zombies, learn about survival, and learn about economics all at once. I also offer economics lessons utilizing the zombie apocalypse as a medium for explaining econ basics. Primarily offered as supplementary instruction, I can also offer it as a full, semester-long college course.
2. Who am I?
Michael Taillard, PhD MBA
– Education
• PhD Financial Economics
• MBA Int’l Finance, & Int’l Management
• BSci Int’l Economics, AA Bus. Admin
• Army Trade Certificate Logistics Management
– Experience
• Economics Professor at Universities Around the
World
• Economic Consultant for Global Companies,
Government Agencies, and Non-Profits
• Researcher Specializing in Behavioral Strategy
• Multiple-Published Author
• Media Personality and Public Speaker
3. Scientific Method
• Apply the scientific method to the
study of zombie outbreaks
• Experiments and theoretical
exercises improve our
understanding of the sciences
• Valuable in furthering our
knowledge of how any widespread
destructive event will impact our
lives
– Natural disasters, disease pandemics,
war, zombies, etc.
• FUN!
4. Scientific Method
• Ceteris Paribus
– Translation: All other things
remaining equal
– Allows us to isolate variables to
measure cause and effect
– Zombies do not exist making
functional experiments
impossible
– Use existing information to
measure individual variables and
infer implications
5. Economics
• The study of how humans distribute a
limited number of resources
• Includes a wide array of subjects
- Business operations
- Finance
- Trade
- Governments
- Agriculture
- Healthcare
- Migration
- Environment
- Behavior
- And More
6. Zombies
• Dead or otherwise soulless
human bodies that actively
pursue other humans
– Typically have intent to harm other
humans
– May be result of any number of
causes:
Resident Evil®
•
•
•
•
•
Voodoo, witchcraft, or other mysticism
Astronomical radiation
Biological or chemical weapons
Infectious disease
Parasitic Infections
7. Scarcity of Human Flesh
• Zombies not interested in
economics
• Only resource of value is human
flesh
• Relentlessly seeks out this resource
without concern for distribution or
rationing
• With no mediating variables they will
soon exhaust their food source and
starve themselves to an minute pop.
8. Epidemiology
Philip Munz, et al., 2009, p.136
• Models zombie infection using
pandemic modeling
S=susceptible people; Z=zombies; R=removed (dead)
π=Starting population; β=Infected human
α=killed zombie; ζ=reanimated dead; δ=killed human
• We use it as a population growth
model for the zombie population
9. Epidemiology
• Most accurate estimates show
survival of a very small
percentage of humans
• Other estimates show total
human annihilation
• Model assumes human-zombie
interaction will be consistent and
inevitable
• As with disease, outliers will exist
to skewed results, geographically
– High: Infection from sources other than zombie contact
– Low: Infection resistance/immunity; isolated geography
10. Health Economics
• Studies the availability, efficiency, efficacy,
and behaviors of healthcare in a region
•Zombies will
reduce the
efficacy and
availability of
healthcare
•Physicians more
urgently needed
over wide areas
11. Efficacy
• Assume an inability to predict source of original
infection
– Leaves no chance for preparation or prevention
– General increase in hygiene and safety limits potential
for speed and scope of infection
• Models show disease will spread too fast to
create a cure in time to stop pandemic-level
infections
• Kill the infected as soon as possible, preferably
using means that won’t waste supplies
• Focus only on treating the living
12. Availability
• Institutional Medicine Unavailable
• Necessary Return of Wandering Doctors
Doctors Without Borders
– Called Chakara in Buddhism
– Regular practice in the Pre-Hippocratic Period
– Currently common in areas without proper availability
13. Economic Geography
• The study of the distribution, movement,
and spatial activities of resources
• Introduction of zombies:
– Alters the movement of assets
– Disrupts the organic processes that influence
movement
– Reverses trade gravity and related activities
for something like “trade anti-gravity”
– Causes capital flight and brain drain to create
“economic jet lag” through dispersion and
inefficient utilization of assets and skills
14.
15. Reverse Urbanization
• Highly populated areas have
highest risk
– More total survivors but higher ratio
of infection and death
– The flu never chased your ass
through the streets - hand sanitizer
won’t help
– Zombies don’t require ready
access to conveniences or each
other causing increased dispersion
and urban sprawl
16. Reverse Urbanization
• Low population areas have lowest
risk
– Low population density results in lower
rate of infection
– Zombie likely to starve or get hit by
truck before finding food
Arkaroola, Australia
17. Reverse Urbanization
• Survivors move from cities to rural
regions
– Minimize risk of zombie attack
– Closer to source of new food as
scavenged food goes bad
– Some resourceful people may find a
way to survive in regions inaccessible
to the infected
18. Trade Anti-gravity
• People and production move away from
urban to rural areas
• Large cities will repel trade due to high
risk and low availability of primary
resources
F = -exp[βo+β1ln(M)-β3ln(D)]η
F=trade; M=GDP; D=Distance; n=error expectation
• Economic Jetlag leaves cities drained
after flight
– Capital Flight: Capital repelled from cities
– Brain Drain: Skilled labor repelled from cities
19. Agricultural Economics
• Studies food production, distribution, land
usage, and related variables
• Introduction of zombies may create
infected food by contaminating water used
to hydrate crops through physical contact
• Assuming no infection of plant, soil, water,
or animal, all agricultural production
systems should be left in working
condition
20. Producing Produce
• Damaged only to the extent that farm
workers are exposed to infection
• Already noted that these regions at
less risk than average
• Production infrastructure still intact and
working properly (i.e.: land, seeds, and
water undamaged)
• Framework for human survival
available
Fertile land; No Distribution
21. Producing Produce
• Focus on foods which are nutrientdense and have low input/output ratios
• Learn how crop rotation works
• Stay healthy & keep your energy high;
long-term nutrition requires planning
Grain:
5oz/day
150oz/month
1825oz/year
Protein:
5oz/day
per person
150oz/month
1825oz/year
Veg:
60cup/month
730cup/year
Fats/Oils:
150tsp/month
1825tsp/year
2cup/day
5tsp/day
Fruit:
45cup/month
547cup/year
Water:
1.5cup/day
8cup/day
Dairy:
90cup/month
1095cup/year
Note:
240cup/month
2920cup/year
• Fridgeless Preservation methods:
• Dry, jar, pickle, smoke, salt, ferment
3cup/day
All values
22. Dysfunctional Distribution
• No properly available utilities or
infrastructure to distribute
agricultural goods to population in
urban or rural regions
– Destroyed by zombie attack, lack of
maintenance, or natural causes
• Access to agriculture available
only to those in immediate area
• Rural areas see higher long-term
survival rates with growth and
attract others
23. Trade Theory
• Studies the process of exchanges
between individuals and groups of people
– Includes influence on/impact of exchanges
• Introduction of zombies will segment trade
to a patchwork of very small groups
– Fewer people, higher risk, poor transportation
– Caravans and towns will replace nations
– Neighboring towns could create trade
agreements to form blocs
24. A Growing Economy
• All trade starts with surplus
agriculture and food supply
– Farmers grow more than they need
and trade surplus for other services
– Makes urbanites with no agricultural
experience useful and offers hope
of survival for others
• Maintain a small degree of
separation of labor
– e.g.: Farmers produce food for
everyone while others work to build
fortifications against zombie attack
25. Skill Diversification
• Each person takes on more
roles
– Many roles of the supply
chain; vertical diversification
– Described by Adam Smith in
“The Wealth of Nations”
• Examples:
– Carpenter:
• Tool maker, Lumberman, Stone
Cutter, Architect, Builder,
Mason, Handyman
– Textile Maker:
• Fiber cultivator, carder, tapestry
maker, tailor, cobbler, designer
26. Skill Diversification
• People must develop a generalized set of
skills
– Learn many trades to be self-reliant and
useful; horizontal diversification
– Fewer people reduces potential for trade and
skill specialization
• All people must be soldiers first
– Able and ready to fight off attacks of zombies
28. Microeconomics
• Studies the decisions of individuals and
firms when allocating limited resources
• Production schedules will be indirectly
altered through functional and seasonal
limitations
• Zombies can’t have a direct impact on
?
microeconomic fundamentals
“Micro… what!?”
29. Production Schedules
• Constant Production
– Output produced at a constant rate
– No rationing required
– Price will remain relatively constant
– Some primary sector goods
• Stone, lumber, water, etc.
– More secondary sector goods
• Metal goods, rope, preserves, textiles, etc.
– Most tertiary sector goods
• Education, sanitation, cooks, security, etc.
30. Production Schedules
Seasonal Production
Seasonal variations in
supply and demand will
have a much bigger role.
Demand for weatherspecific products will go up,
and supply will vary with
seasonal product potential
Food is
especially
subject to
seasonal
variations
as plants
and game
vary during
the year
31. Production Schedules
• Goods that can no
longer be produced
– Industrial supplies and
high technology
– Must be rationed
carefully
– Ammo of particular
rationing concern
Commodities Investor
– Value continuously goes
up over time as supply
is depleted
• Apply oil politics to
Twinkies
Woody Harrelson in Zombieland
32. Financial Economics
• Studies the role of money and other
money-measured assets in exchanges
and agreements
• Money is a physical representation of the
value of goods and services owed to the
owner as a result of having produced and
given away something else of value
• Introduction of zombies will leave money
nearly useless but not more so than any
other type of apocalypse
33. Barter Systems
• Money loses usefulness
– Low total availability of production
means that your skills must be needed
by those whom you wish to solicit
– No competition means no
standardization of value
– The value of each service in the
exchange must be negotiated in
advance
– The value placed on a service is
measured in terms of other services
34. Money
• Possibility for isolated use within
individual communities
– Must be enough people and competition
within the community to make money a viable
means of exchanging value
– Monetary value an arbitrary measure and not
likely to translate properly outside the
community
– Salt, spices, & silk likely to be used as
currency alternatives
– Dollar bills only as useful as the material they
are printed on
35. Macroeconomics
• Studies the behavior of production and
distribution of assets across the entire
population of a particular group or region
• End of large, organized governments and
reduced importance of money eliminates
all normal policy development
• Small, local control with strict concern for
increasing production will prevail
36. Managing Resources
• Governments composed of
community leaders
– Manage small, self-sustaining
communities of several people or
families
• More involved role in managing
resources
– Focus on ensuring adequate
production to ration during the winter or
during zombie swarms
37. Monetary and Fiscal Policy
• Monetary policy
– No money means no monetary policy
• Fiscal policy
– Units of production stored vs. rationed;
same mechanism as taxation and
expenditure
– Bartering without money makes longterm measures difficult
• Option1: Standardized system
• Option 2: Trust your customers during
crisis
38. Monetary and Fiscal Policy
•Employment
-Employment will remain at 100%
- High production demand with scarce labor
markets
• Inflation
– Low demand-pull
inflation
– Production needs
determined by ration
requirements
– Still possible through
cost-push influence
– SRPC will resemble
LRPC
39. Energy Economics
• Studies sources and utilization of energy
• Ancient Sources
– Human effort, animal effort, limited wind
(windmills), limited water (water wheels),
limited oil (animal oil lamps)
– All mechanical energy, none electrical
• Modern Sources
– Oil, gas, coal, wind, water, nuclear,
geothermal, hydroelectric, and more
– Abundant electrical energy
40. Going Off-Grid
•Energy infrastructure will disappear
•No ability to refine gas, oil, or nuclear material
•No infrastructure for the distribution of major
hydroelectric or geothermal energy
•Small-scale solar/wind energy will last for decades
•Strong for 1 product life-cycle, scavenged parts and replacements for years afterward
•Lost use of industrial energy will cause per capital
production to drop to pre-industrial revolution levels
•Economic growth potential severely limited
41. Developmental Economics
• Growth: Volume of production issues
– Wealth, GDP, Income, etc.
• Development: Quality of life issues
– Education, health, environment, etc.
• Sustainability of each a key concern
• Zombies bring a trade-off
– Poor education and health infrastructure
– Improved environment via low production
– Improved sustainability via low population
42. Going Green
• Zombies: Good for the Environment
Bad for Businesses
– Consume very few resources
– Release no toxic byproducts into the
air, land, or water
• Exception: If one falls in the water making
that water unsafe
– Very high ratio of zombie population
means lower impact on environment
• Much lower production volume
43. Going Green
• Environmental Restoration
– Consumption currently at degradation levels;
more than can be sustained
– Seeking steady-state consumption
• Consumption rates equals renewal rates
• e.g.: Cut trees at rate equal to growth
– Zombies constantly have rate of consumption
within renewal levels
– Remaining human infrastructure gradually
destroyed by returning plants and animals.
Life After People on History Channel
44. Sustainability
• Human flesh consumption reaches
steady-state sustainability
– Human communities survive and
reproduce
– Zombies continue to seek us out as we
attempt to evade them
– Zombies mitigate human growth,
maintaining sustainable levels
45. Human Development
• Human development measured by
Human Development Index (HDI)
• Where:
Life Expectancy
Education Index
GNI/Capita Index
• Result of Zombies: All decreased
– Much Increased in Future Potential
– GNI Growth w/ Lower Pop. Growth
• Greater GNI per Capita
46. Human Development
• Improved Equality Among People
– Measured by Gini Coefficient
• Shift in AS and labor decreases
value of G by increased reliance
47. Summary
• Zombie apocalypse will fix the economy
– Ample supply of agriculture
– High employment and low inflation
– Improved socioeconomic disparity
– Environmental restoration
– Resource sustainability
• Zombies keep the real threats at bay
– Human excesses and overpopulation
– Degradation status fixed by killing more people
– Sustainable human development achieved
48. Michael Taillard, PhD MBA
Freelance Economist
Consulting, Teaching, Research
Writing, Public Speaking, Media