Publicidad

SemiWEEK: America’s search for leading-edge fabs; Stocks rose

VLSIresearch
26 de May de 2020
Publicidad

Más contenido relacionado

Similar a SemiWEEK: America’s search for leading-edge fabs; Stocks rose(20)

Publicidad

SemiWEEK: America’s search for leading-edge fabs; Stocks rose

  1. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Chip Market Research Services Order activity is up despite limited visibility • Order activity for semiconductor equipment surged nearly six points, jumping past 72 degrees • IC Inventory Levels Semiconductor Analytics Semi Market results from last week: Coronavirus drove Integrated Circuit sales towards recession and now the WAHE is pulling it out. Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 Jumped to +17% – Semiconductor Weather1 Report: Warmed to Temperate – IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Tight – Electronics Price Trend: Soaring Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 WAHE Spring: Mar 25 Chip History Center People: Sunlin Chou on Intel's R&D Pipeline. The history of semiconductor research at Intel is discussed in this 2004 conversation Power, Performance, Cost, and Moore's Law: How Power, Performance, and Cost relate to Moore's Law The Chip Insider Strategy & Tactics: America’s search for leading-edge fabs Semiconductor Stocks • VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Indices rose this week • Semiconductor Stock Index was led up 4.0% by Infineon • Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up 3.1% by Teradyne • EDA Stock Index was led up 6.3% by Synopsys • Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up 3.3% by Cabot Microelectronics • Hottest Stocks: Infineon, Cabot Microelectronics, Panasonic, ON Semiconductor, Skyworks, and Teradyne. Semiconductor WEEK: May 22, 2020 An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI
  2. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File May 2020 Order activity is up despite limited visibility This issue contains the latest forecast. Call us to access more details • Order activity for semiconductor equipment surged nearly six points, jumping past 72 degrees • Despite the uncertainty from the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for equipment remains solid as semiconductor companies continue to push forward with their capacity upgrades and additions plans • Working from home economy coupled with surging e- commerce has offset the weakness in other sectors like automotive and industrial • There have been some major changes to the forecasts in this update – Equipment sales are now expected to increase 7% compared to our previous forecast of -6%. – IC sales are expected to increase nearly 1% compared to -4% in the previous update • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) slipped further
  3. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. VLSI's Current Forecast Forecast as of May 2020: 4Q19 2019 2020 2021 Semi Equipment ($B): 21.3$ 77.0$ 82.7$ 88.1$ Sequential Change 10.3% -8.0% 7.3% 6.5% Capacity Utilization: 87.4% 84.6% 88.6% 95.2% ICs ($B): 94.0$ 352.3$ 354.8$ 408.6$ Sequential Change 3.6% -13.4% 0.7% 15.2% IC Units (BU): 77.4 299.4 296.4 334.4 Sequential Change -1.8% -6.0% -1.0% 12.8% Electronics ($B) : 631.5$ 2,122$ 2,020$ 2,284$ Sequential Change 20.6% -2.0% -4.8% 13.0% Severe COVID-19 impact in 2H20, recovery 2021 Forecast as of May 2020: 4Q19 2019 2020 2021 Semi Equipment ($B): 21.3$ 77.0$ 71.2$ 88.1$ Sequential Change 10.3% -8.0% -7.6% 23.8% ICs ($B): 94.0$ 352.3$ 330.8$ 408.6$ Sequential Change 3.6% -13.4% -6.1% 23.5% IC Units (BU): 77.4 299.4 276.6 334.4 Sequential Change -1.8% -6.0% -7.6% 20.9% Electronics ($B) : 632$ 2,122$ 1,884$ 2,284$ Sequential Change 20.6% -2.0% -11.2% 21.2%
  4. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. The Chip Insider® Graphics Total IC inventories are much healthier than expected in 1H20 IC Inventory Levels: chart gives rolling averages for semiconductor integrated circuit inventories held at OEMs, in Die Banks, and the total Inventory-to-Billing Ratio
  5. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Semiconductor Analytics Last Week in the Semiconductor Market: Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 WAHE Spring: Mar 25 W/W:Week-over-WeeksequentialgrowthW/Q:Week-over-QuarterW/Y:Week-over-Year 1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power 5 Thank you for supporting us through this last issue of 2018. Semiconductor Analytics will return January . The Coronavirus drove Integrated Circuit sales towards recession and now the WAHE is pulling it out. Semiconductor sales continued to run well above 2019 levels last week, with a 2nd half revenue ramp similar to 2018. Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 Jumped to +17% Semiconductor Weather1 Report: 70˚ F Warmed to Temperate IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Tight Electronics Pricing Trend: Soaring Notebooks, Smartphones, and Consumer Electronics have a seasonal inversion driven by WAHE (Work-at-Home Economy)
  6. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. 2020 Semiconductor Market Drivers 6 Coronavirus drove Integrated Circuit sales towards recession and WAHE is pulling it out: • Certainties: – Coronavirus Pandemic infected economies • Unparalleled Supply and Demand shocks to IC sales of <10% and units of ~20% – Macroeconomic ‘V’acuum or ‘U’ – not ‘L’ – World’s Economy saved by Semiconductors – WAHE (Work-At-Home Economy) – 7/10nm and 5/7nm demand ramps • Uncertainties: – Ability of Governments to defibrillate economy out of shelter-in-place – 2020 Elections in U.S.
  7. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. The Chip Insider® Strategy & Tactics Strategy and Tactics: America’s search for leading-edge fabs. Summaries: America’s search for leading-edge fabs: The recent battles between China and America have tended to not be framed by the semiconductor issue. Instead they have centered on trade and jobs, with the Coronavirus an emergent hot point. But the semiconductor issue, often hidden, has been not too far below the surface because it is an existential threat to national security. As control over oil was the strategic national security fulcrum of the 20th century, semiconductors are for the 21st century. Of course, everyone in our industry knows this, yet... Silicon Shield: For Taiwan, its semiconductor strategy was conceived around a much more visible threat: America’s recognition of … Intel’s American Foundry Fab: The new story is… TSMC’s American Foundry Fab: China has a TSMC fab, why not America? One oft-stated reason for it… Taiwan: America’s 51st state? Now if you really want to think outside the box… Important ChipChirps™ ChipChirps™ are exclusively available on VLSI’s App for Android and iOS weVISION Videos: COVID-19 & the Semi Value Chain with Risto Puhakka. Coronavirus impact on the semi value chain with Andrea Lati. Metrology and Inspection's increasing importance with Peter Jenkins of Infinitesima. The 2010 Decade: The Big Picture with Andrea Lati of VLSIresearch. weVISION Videos are available as downloadable podcasts on VLSI’s Smartphone app. “Execution is Everything” — John Doerr Contact us to get the full report and more
  8. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. semiStockWEEK: VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices rose along with the market. EDA index hit a new yearly high this week. Semiconductors 4%, Equipment 3%, EDA 6%, Electronic Materials 3%.
  9. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Semiconductor Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index was led up 4.0% by Infineon, Panasonic, ON Semiconductor, and Skyworks. IDM +4.4% Foundry & OSAT -2.6% Fabless & Fablite +6.8% AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI AmkorAMKR ASE ASX Broadcom AVGO IBM IBM Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC JCET600584.SS Kingpak Technology6238.TWO Micron Technology MU On Semiconductor ON Panasonic PC MagnaChip Semiconductor MX Maxim MXIM MaxLinear MXL MediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA NVDA Qualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics 005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLAB Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI STMicroelectronics STM Texas Instruments TXN TSMC TSM UMC UMC Western Digital WDC Xilinx XLNX Weekly Gains 5/22/2020 Semiconductor Stocks Price Change Forward P/E Semiconductor Stocks Price Change Forward P/E IDM Fab-lite to Fabless Intel 6.8% 13 AMD 1.8% 36 Micron 1.2% 9 Analog Devices 9.1% 22 ON Semiconductor 11.2% 10 Broadcom 6.2% 12 Samsung Electronics 1.9% – IBM 1.2% 10 SK hynix -0.7% Infineon 13.5% 19 STMicroelectronics 2.1% 19 MagnaChip Semiconductor 8.2% 12 Western Digital 8.2% 7 Maxim 7.8% 26 Foundry & OSAT MaxLinear 8.3% 24 Amkor 4.5% 13 MediaTek 7.5% – ASE -6.8% 10 NVIDIA 6.3% 40 JCET -5.3% 92 Panasonic 11.4% 34 Kingpak Technology 4.2% – Qualcomm 3.9% 13 SMIC -11.7% 1692 Silicon Laboratories 4.2% 29 TSMC 0.0% 16 Skyworks 10.2% 17 UMC -3.0% 13 Texas Instruments 4.8% 23 Xilinx 4.0% 26
  10. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Chip Equipment & Related Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up 3.1% by Teradyne. WFE +3.9% Test +4.3% Assembly -0.1% Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATEYY ASM International ASMI ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific 0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK FormFactor FORM KLA KLAC Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX Onto Innovation ONTO Nikon 7731 Teradyne TER Tokyo Electron Limited 8035 Veeco VECO Weekly Gains 0 5/22/2020 Equipment Stocks Price Change Forward P/E Equipment Stocks Price Change Forward P/E Wafer Process: Test: Applied Materials 4.5% 13 Advantest -1.3% – ASM International 4.1% 19 Teradyne 10.3% 18 ASML 9.2% 29 FormFactor 3.8% 21 KLA 3.3% 17 Lam Research 3.7% 15 Assembly: Onto Innovation 3.3% – BESI 1.1% – Nikon 3.3% – Kulicke & Soffa 6.6% 13 TEL -1.8% – ASM Pacific Technology -7.9% Veeco Instruments 5.3% 13
  11. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Electronic Materials Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s EDA Stock Index was led up 6.3% by Synopsys, hitting a new high for the year. VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up 3.3.% by Cabot Microelectronics. BASF BASFY Cabot Microelectronics CCMP Cadence CNDS DNP 7912 DuPont DD JSR 4185 Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PA Synopsys SNPS Tokyo Ohka 4186 Weekly Gains 5/22/2020 EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks Price Change Forward P/E EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks Price Change Forward P/E EDA DNP 2.8% – Cadence 4.8% 32 DuPont 7.1% 4 Synopsys 7.8% 29 JSR -0.1% – Electronic Materials Shin-Etsu -0.2% – BASF 6.8% 2 SOITEC -0.1% – Cabot Microelectronics 12.6% 18 Tokyo Ohka -2.5% –
  12. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs. Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks 18-Oct-19 86.2 86.7 97.5 94.5 0.2% 0.3% 2.7% -1.5% 28 11.2% -23 -6.0% 17.2% 92.2 0.5% 25-Oct-19 88.2 92.4 100.0 94.9 2.4% 6.6% 2.5% 0.4% 46 15.6% -7 -16.3% 31.9% 93.3 1.2% 01-Nov-19 90.3 92.6 101.2 94.8 2.4% 0.2% 1.3% -0.1% 36 9.9% -15 -12.1% 22.0% 94.7 1.5% 08-Nov-19 91.7 94.9 103.2 96.1 1.5% 2.5% 1.9% 1.3% 37 12.5% -14 -4.2% 16.7% 95.5 0.9% 15-Nov-19 92.0 97.0 101.5 97.6 0.4% 2.1% -1.6% 1.6% 31 10.8% -20 -5.0% 15.8% 96.3 0.9% 22-Nov-19 90.0 92.0 98.7 95.9 -2.2% -5.1% -2.8% -1.8% 7 5.7% -44 -17.7% 23.4% 96.0 -0.3% 29-Nov-19 90.9 93.7 96.7 100.1 1.0% 1.8% -2.0% 4.4% 37 5.0% -14 -15.0% 20.0% 96.9 1.0% 06-Dec-19 92.6 94.7 95.5 95.5 1.8% 1.1% -1.2% -4.6% 33 8.2% -19 -4.8% 13.0% 97.1 0.2% 13-Dec-19 96.7 98.0 100.0 96.9 4.5% 3.5% 4.7% 1.5% 48 10.7% -3 -1.4% 12.1% 97.8 0.7% 20-Dec-19 99.2 99.9 100.1 99.6 2.6% 1.9% 0.1% 2.7% 39 12.5% -13 -8.4% 20.9% 99.4 1.7% 27-Dec-19 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.8% 0.1% -0.1% 0.4% 29 5.9% -23 2.7% 8.6% 100.0 0.6% 03-Jan-20 100.3 100.2 98.9 100.5 0.3% 0.2% -1.1% 0.5% 23 9.5% -24 -3.4% 12.9% 99.8 -0.2% 10-Jan-20 101.5 100.9 99.2 104.7 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4.2% 32 7.2% -22 -4.8% 12.0% 100.8 0.9% 17-Jan-20 104.7 104.8 101.0 106.4 3.2% 3.9% 1.8% 1.7% 45 19.1% -10 -3.8% 22.9% 102.8 2.0% 24-Jan-20 106.1 105.1 100.5 107.8 1.3% 0.3% -0.5% 1.3% 29 14.9% -25 -10.8% 25.7% 101.7 -1.0% 31-Jan-20 98.4 98.4 96.0 103.8 -7.3% -6.3% -4.5% -3.8% 3 2.2% -51 -17.7% 19.9% 99.5 -2.1% 07-Feb-20 102.5 101.3 100.4 107.2 4.2% 2.9% 4.6% 3.3% 45 21.4% -10 -11.7% 33.1% 102.7 3.2% 14-Feb-20 106.5 106.6 101.0 114.2 3.9% 5.3% 0.6% 6.5% 47 27.5% -8 -10.0% 37.5% 104.3 1.6% 21-Feb-20 103.7 99.3 98.1 106.4 -2.6% -6.9% -2.8% -6.9% 6 4.5% -49 -17.1% 21.6% 103.0 -1.3% 28-Feb-20 93.1 90.4 85.5 96.2 -10.2% -8.9% -12.9% -9.5% 0 -0.8% -55 -21.3% 20.5% 91.2 -11.5% 06-Mar-20 91.8 91.0 84.8 95.1 -1.5% 0.6% -0.7% -1.2% 18 7.9% -35 -11.0% 18.9% 91.7 0.6% 13-Mar-20 81.1 78.3 71.0 90.7 -11.6% -13.9% -16.3% -4.6% 0 -2.1% -55 -26.6% 24.5% 83.7 -8.8% 20-Mar-20 69.6 65.2 67.0 78.4 -14.2% -16.7% -5.7% -13.6% 3 15.3% -52 -28.9% 44.2% 71.1 -15.0% 27-Mar-20 78.3 78.7 76.6 88.7 12.6% 20.6% 14.4% 13.1% 52 36.1% -3 -11.7% 47.8% 78.4 10.3% 03-Apr-20 77.1 73.4 72.6 89.9 -1.6% -6.7% -5.3% 1.4% 14 17.4% -41 -15.1% 32.5% 76.8 -2.1% 10-Apr-20 85.6 84.0 82.6 99.7 11.1% 14.5% 13.8% 10.9% 54 38.2% -1 -2.3% 40.5% 86.1 12.1% 17-Apr-20 89.1 88.4 82.7 111.3 4.0% 5.2% 0.2% 11.7% 41 17.0% -10 -6.1% 23.1% 88.7 3.0% 24-Apr-20 88.7 86.1 82.5 111.9 -0.4% -2.6% -0.2% 0.6% 17 9.2% -37 -9.8% 19.0% 87.6 -1.3% 01-May-20 89.1 83.9 85.0 107.5 0.5% -2.6% 3.1% -4.0% 27 19.1% -28 -11.9% 31.0% 87.4 -0.2% 08-May-20 94.8 91.9 88.4 115.9 6.4% 9.6% 3.9% 7.8% 52 31.0% -3 -2.4% 33.4% 90.4 3.5% 15-May-20 91.4 87.1 86.8 115.1 -3.6% -5.3% -1.8% -0.7% 10 16.8% -45 -21.1% 37.9% 88.4 -2.3% 22-May-20 95.1 89.8 89.7 122.3 4.0% 3.1% 3.3% 6.3% 42 13.5% -12 -11.7% 25.2% 91.2 3.2% The Prior Week's Close S&P500 MaxGrowth Companies Up Companies Down Rangeof Growth MinGrowth S&P500 Growth VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks Weekly Growth
Publicidad