On 5-6 December, Tashkent hosted a workshop on renewable energy (RE) policy development jointly organized by the Government of Uzbekistan and the World Bank Group (WBG) in partnership with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The presentation was delivered during the above-mentioned event.

1. Renewable Energy Technology Overview
and Market Trends
Hameed Safiullah
Programme Officer – Technical Assistance and Advisory Services
Renewable Energy Workshop
Tashkent, Uzbekistan
05 December 2017

2. CURRENT STATUS AND OUTLOOK FOR
RENEWABLE ENERGY

3. Renewable Resources are increasingly an important part of the
electricity sector
Renewable resources contribute to 25% of the electricity produced.

4. 4.7%
5.7%
6.9%
7.1%
8.0%
8.4%
8.9%
8.2%
7.9%
9.2%
8.8%
Year-on-year growth
There has been a steady increase in renewable resources in the
generation mix
Source: IRENA

5. New renewable power technologies are maturing rapidly
0.347
0.131
0.301
0.242
0.071
0.056
0.133
0.123
0.035
0.0510.047
0.064
0.056
0.081
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), 2010 - 2016

6. RE costs are decreasing worldwide
Source: IRENA
Renewable power auctions throughout 2016 resulted in record-low prices
Today’s record low PPA prices are tomorrow’s average.

7. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS

8. Installed Solar PV Capacity
Source: IRENA
2010:
39 GW
2016:
290 GW
7x Growth in
Installed Capacity
• In 2002, total installed solar PV capacity
exceeded 2 GW. And ten years later, in
2012, it surpassed 100 GW.
• In 2015, new additions of solar PV alone
were around 47 GW, with total cumulative
installed capacity reaching 220 GW by
the end of that year.
• Solar PV has thus come of age.
Commercial solutions are now available
that can provide competitive power in a
complete range of applications.

9. Utility scale PV total system costs and expected cost
reductions by 2025
• Large average cost reduction potential
• Largest module cost reductions from
polysilicon production and cell-to-
module production
• increased reactor capacity
• reduced electricity consumption
• uptake of newer manufacturing
processes
• Balance of System (BoS) dominates
potential
Source: IRENA

10. Solar PV: BoS costs to 2025
BoS costs for utility-scale solar PV plant could fall by between 65% and 71% between
2015 and 2025.
Why? Market and supply chain increased maturity
Lower perceived risks => lower margins
Soft costs Expected to contribute between 43%-46%
Hardware BOS hardware costs decrease expected to
contribute another 30-32% to the potential
Source: IRENA

11. CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER

12. CSP: a set of technologies
• Deployment is in its infancy (~5 GW)
• Cost reduction potential is good. IRENA analysis focuses on
parabolic trough (PT) and solar tower (ST)
• Solar towers have greater cost reduction potential with
higher operating temperatures and lower cost thermal
energy storage
• Cheap thermal energy storage allows dispatchable power -
> potentially more valuable generation (particularly in high
RE scenarios)
1.3
1.7
2.6
3.9
4.4
4.8 4.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
InstalledCapacity(GW)
Installed Capacity (GW)
Source: IRENA

13. Concentrating Solar Power: LCOE
By 2025 the LCOE of both parabolic through (PT) and solar tower (ST) technologies will decrease about 35%
Main
driver
Lower capital investment costs
Output
2015-2025
Assuming medium irradiance (DNI = 2550
kWh/m2)
PT electricity output: +7.6%
ST electricity output: +8.4%
LCOE 2015: USD 0.15-0.19/kWh
2025:
USD 0.09/kWh to USD 0.12/kWh for PT
USD 0.08/kWh to USD 0.11/kWh for ST
Source: IRENA

14. ONSHORE WIND

15. Onshore Wind
• Historically every doubling of global capacity has
meant:
 6% declined in investment costs
 9% decline in LCOE
• 1983-2014
 LCOE dropped from USD 0.38/kWh to USD 0.07/kWh (-
81% fall)
 Global weighted average investment cots declined by two
thirds - USD 4766/kW to USD 1623/kW
• Key Drivers
 Technological improvements: have been rapid and are still
ongoing
 Increased economies of scale
• Broader market (100+ countries)
• Technology innovation
The cost of onshore wind farms will continue to fall
Source: IRENA
2010:
180 GW
2016:
450 GW
2.5x Growth in
Installed Capacity

16. Onshore Wind: LCOE reductions
Increasing Capacity
Factor
• Improved Blade Design
• Pitch and yaw control
• Taller towers
Reduction in
Investment Costs
USD/kw
• Larger Capacity Turbines
• Higher Hubs
• Larger rotor diameters
LCOE reductions are ongoing and new technology improvements are continuously
deployed
LCOE is expected to decline by 20-30% by 2025

17. STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES

18. Need for electricity storage in the future grid
• Electricity storage will play a crucial role in enabling the
next phase of the energy transition.
• Stationary electricity storage can provide a range of key
energy services in an affordable manner. As the cost of
emerging technologies falls further, storage will become
increasingly competitive, and the range of economical
services it can provide will only increase.
• Future energy systems will rely on a large array of services
based on effective, economical electricity storage. This
plethora of service needs, with varying performance
requirements, suggests an important role for many
different storage technologies.
• In the next 3-5 years, the storage industry is positioned to
scale and echo the stark growth seen in the solar PV
industry.
Potential locations and applications of electricity storage
Source: IRENA, 2015a based on EPRI.

19. 19
Technology innovation: Share of various storage technologies

20. 50% – 66% reduction in cost of battery systems
by 2030
Battery Electricity Storage System Installed Cost
Reduction Potential (2016-2030)
Main drivers for cost reduction:
• International transition towards
electro mobility leads to
substantial scale effects
• >170 GWh/year production
capacities projected for year
2020
• Tesla GigaFactory
• LG Chem/ Foxconn
• Innovative developments
• Mass production
• Utilize silicon in anodes
• Durable LMO cathodes
• Lithium Sulphur/Air

21. Concluding Remarks
• Renewable power capacity has accounted for more than half of capacity additions in the global power sector
since 2011, with the share of renewables in power generation increasing by 0.7% per year. While substantial, this
growth rate needs to double.
• At the end of 2015, renewables comprised 28.9% of the world’s generating capacity – enough to supply 23.7% of
global electricity. Following, in 2016, renewable power generation capacity grew 8.8%, adding a record 161 GW.
• Renewables are now the most affordable source of power in many parts of the world, a trend that will continue.
• While solar and wind power technologies are commercially mature, they still have significant potential for cost
reduction. By 2025-2030, average electricity costs could decrease:
 59% for solar PV
 26% for onshore wind
 37-43% for CSP
 50-66% for Battery Storage Systems
A world powered by renewable energy is not only possible, it is inevitable. The key question is how fast.

22. Information of Costs
www.irena.org/costs
References
LCOE ranges, averages and capacity data
www.irena.org/resource
Relevant Reports:

23. Thank you!
Contact:
Hameed Safiullah (HSafiullah@irena.org)
Anuar Tassymov (ATassymov@irena.org)