Forecasting Enterprise Honolulu Slides - Understanding Change
•Descargar como PPT, PDF•
0 recomendaciones•450 vistas
The document summarizes a presentation about understanding and anticipating change. It discusses how change occurs at different levels and rates, and from external and internal sources. Examples of disruptive changes from the past are provided. The presentation also covers topics like globalization, energy and environmental challenges, emerging technologies, and growing government obligations. It argues that learning and adapting to change will be critical for navigating uncertainty in the future.
![The Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
Recomendados
Recomendados
Más contenido relacionado
La actualidad más candente
La actualidad más candente (19)
Similar a Forecasting Enterprise Honolulu Slides - Understanding Change
Similar a Forecasting Enterprise Honolulu Slides - Understanding Change (20)
Más de NASBLA
Más de NASBLA (20)
Forecasting Enterprise Honolulu Slides - Understanding Change
- 1. The Forecasting Enterprise Honolulu HI September 13, 2010 Slides – tech.uh.edu/faculty/bishop/documents Click on NASBLA_0913.pdf Dr. Peter Bishop Futures Studies University of Houston
- 5. Four Basic Attributes Levels Sources Horizons Rates Change
- 6. Sources of Change … but within limits Anticipate… Prepare Influence… Act Predict… INBOUND Change that happens to us Control… OUTBOUND Change we create ourselves
- 7. Levels of Change Transactional Environment STEEP Political Environmental Technological Economic Social Demographic Cultural
- 8. Out-Bound Change Political Environmental Technological Economic Demographic Cultural Transactional Environment
- 9. Horizons of Change Hours-Days Weeks-Months Years-Decades Present Future
- 12. The Real Shape of Change S-Curve 1 Old era No problem! 2 Transition What is going on here? 3 New era Whew!
- 13. Successive Eras Speed Biking Motoring Flying Inherent capacity for performance Punctuated Equilibrium Boating Law of diminishing returns
- 14. Eras in Information Technology
- 15. x The Gap Old era New era Transitions inevitability create problems... … but problems are investments toward a better future.
- 16. The Gap Old era Transitions inevitability create problems... x New era 0 1 … yet no guarantees that the future will better…
- 17. The Gap Old era x New era 0 1 … or even something worse occurs. Overshoot and collapse
- 19. Levels of Change Transactional Environment STEEP Political Environmental Technological Economic Social Demographic Cultural
- 20. Globalization
- 22. World and U.S. Trade
- 23. World Trade
- 24. Share of World Economy Developed countries are now sharing the world economy with developing countries.
- 25. Increasing Rate of Globalization Jose Cordeiro, Thinking about the Unthinkable , Olomouc University, 2010
- 26. U.S. Manufacturing Manufacturing output is up… … but employment is down… … because productivity is up… … and foreign goods are cheaper.
- 27. THE “GREAT EXPANSION” TO THE “GREAT INVERSION” Source: Congressional Budget Office Source: Economic Policy Institute Knowledge Economy: Growing Divides Slides: Professor Klineberg – Rice University
- 28. Effect of Globalization Emmanuel Saez, Income and Wealth Concentration in a Historical and International Perspective, 2004, http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/berkeleysympo2.pdf
- 29. Distribution of World Income
- 30. Energy
- 31. ENERGY CONTENT OF FUELS Fuel Type MJ/kg Hydrogen Gasolines Natural gas Anthracite Bituminous coal Lignites Air-dried wood Cereal straws 114.0 44.0-45.0 33.0-37.0 29.0-31.0 22.0-26.0 12.0-20.0 14.0-16.0 12.0-15.0 From Energy: A Beginner’s Guide by Vaclav Smil 1 MJ is the energy required to move a mid-size car about 650 yds 1 kg is about 1 quart of gasoline.
- 32. U.S. Discovery and Production
- 33. Source: ASPO-USA; created by OilPoster.org One possible scenario…
- 34. Slide from Robert L Hirsch
- 38. Algae, CO 2 , and Biofuel Algae 2020 , Emerging Markets, http://www.emerging-markets.com/biodiesel/pdf/Algae2020NextGenerationBiofuelsStudyEmergingMarketsOnline.pdf
- 39. Environment
- 40. Are There Limits? Lučka Kajfež Bogataj, Can Civilisation Cope?, Olomouc University, 2010
- 41. CO 2 Concentrations Concentrations have oscillated between 180 and 300 ppmv over the last 400K yrs SIPPLE STATION, ANTARCTICA
- 42. Global Temperatures Global Temperatures Source: Michael Mann, www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0805721105 Source: Schlumberger, http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/change.htm
- 43. Projected Temperature Increase Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Understanding Climate Change http://www.uah.edu/inauguration/presentations/mosley.pdf
- 47. The Future of Any Resource Current supply available Current benefit level Existing sources Sources Supplies Benefits Behaviors Current behavior Future supply? New supply efficiency ? New supply issues Future benefit? New demand efficiency ? New demand issues Future sources? ? Future behavior? ?
- 48. NBIC Technology Info, Nano, Bio, Cogno
- 49. Waves of Creative Destruction Era 1 Era 1 Steam Rail Petroleum Information Inherent capacity for performance Law of diminishing returns
- 51. The Elimination of... The Reduction of...
- 53. Genetic Typing Jose Cordeiro, Thinking about the Unthinkable , Olomouc University, 2010
- 54. Cost of Genetic Typing 85% improvement per year! Jose Cordeiro, Thinking about the Unthinkable , Olomouc University, 2010 1 day $100 2015? 4 weeks $10,000 2009 2 months $1,000,000 2008 4 years $100,000,000 2007 13 years $1,000,000,000 2003 Time Cost Year
- 56. Human Cyborgs Jose Cordeiro, Thinking about the Unthinkable , Olomouc University, 2010
- 57. Global Brain? Jose Cordeiro, Thinking about the Unthinkable , Olomouc University, 2010
- 58. The Next Big Bang Jose Cordeiro, Thinking about the Unthinkable , Olomouc University, 2010
- 59. Government
- 60. As Far as the Eye can See
- 61. Social Security and Medicare Cost Source: Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs, Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees , 2 007, http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/trsummary.html Percent of GDP
- 62. Federal Budget Projection Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY09, THE NATION’S FISCAL OUTLOOK, , http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy09/pdf/budget/outlook.pdf
- 65. Milestones of Government Role Progressive Era Anti-trust Child labor Workplace safety The New Deal FDIC Society security Minimum wage The Great Society AFDC Food stamps Medicare, Medicaid Contract with America Balanced budget Welfare reform (Immigration restriction) ????
- 66. Another perspective Progressive Era Anti-trust Child labor Workplace safety The New Deal FDIC Society security Minimum wage The Great Society AFDC Food stamps Medicare, Medicaid Contract with America Balanced budget Welfare reform (Immigration restriction) ????
- 67. So What?
- 70. IPAT Rates 108% 84% Meat -10% 17% Grain 58% (Harris 1996) 42% Grain yield 0% 27% Irrigated land 38% (IEA) -30% 14% 48% Energy 63% 111% Gross World Product 20% (IDB) 30% Population Total Per $GWP Per cap Total 2010-30 1990-2010
- 71. The Drama of the Future Population, Affluence, and Technology are all increasing? Which will prove the more powerful? Which will dominate the future?
- 72. Multiple Pathways Proactive Governance Cooperative Frameworks Appropriate Technology Change of Mind (values, behavior) Thomas Shauer, Club of Rome , Olomouc University, 2010 Collective Individual
- 73. A Final Word Learning faster is the only sustainable advantage in an environment of rapid innovation and change. -- Arie de Geus, former Director Corporate Planning Royal Dutch Shell Group
Notas del editor
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Symbol in the middle
- Airplane, truck in lower left
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Our focus on achievement might be an overwhelming necessity… Succeeding in a Global Knowledge Economy is much more difficult than anything societies have experienced in the past. Agricultural life was uncertain, but with the right factors- anyone could participate in the economy. Manufacturing required physical strength- and often an ability to do repetitive work. Service Economy – required school- but most work was not inaccessible…. And for a few decades- there was little global competition. Knowledge/Collaborative Economy – requires us to constantly update our skills; Millennials are developing a skill set to compete in the global knowledge economy… For many professionals the 9 to 5 work day has been replaced by the 24/7 Multi-tasking is a natural juggling act for Millennials who can simultaneously write emails, chat on instant messaging, burn CDs, and talk on the cell phone… Moist Millennials will also work across teams in their future work environments– many of these teams might be across national borders. For Millennials- who have grown up in small groups (day care; classroom projects, et al)
- --Note that world-wide discoveries of oil peaked during the 1960s, and have been in a bumpy decline ever since. The Optimists say there is a lot more oil to be discovered, and that it will be discovered once prices stay higher longer and once large proven reserves become less plentiful. Furthermore, they point to a factor called “reserves growth” within existing fields that undercuts the need to discover new fields. It will be interesting to follow this claim. So far, during this century’s high-price regime, the new discoveries fail to match the size and quality of the super-giant fields discovered from 1930-1970, during oil’s heyday. --This is just a scenario. Peak oil could land a couple of years later. We could, as we show here, have several mini-peaks on a modest plateau. It might play out quite differently; for example, if the US bombed Iran and they responded by attacking oil freighters passing through the Straits of Hormuz and terrorists (or Iran) attacked Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refining and export facility, we could experience peak oil within a month after that event. Another scenario would show that we are already on a plateau of production and it won’t increase substantially for a number of years when it will slip into decline. Another scenario would show production increasing intermittently another 8%-10% before declining immediately after that peak. No one knows the exact “when” and “what happens then” answers—no one.
- These are rough figures. Most are based on research over the years by Cutler Cleveland and Robert Kaufmann (Boston University) and Charlie Hall (State University of New York). Oil sands figures come from Canadian sources. Ethanol figures come an average of US sources (1.3 to 1.6); some sources (David Pimentel and Ted Padzek) state that the figure for ethanol for corn is less than 1 to 1.
- Goals To highlight some of the attributes assigned to the Millennial generation To look at how the world has changed in the past three generations- so that we might understand the interaction between generations that we find in schools/work. To look at why this might be important to education Generations are characterized by groups of people born within the same time period– and have a strikingly similar values and view of the world based on shared early life experiences. It is about passing through life stages together… The theory is that b/c of our shared experiences- we might share beliefs towards science, technology, government, ‘progress’, national pride, gender, celebrity… Story isn’t that young people have changed- or parents have changed– but that some things in our world have changed– and others have stayed the same… We are all just responding and adapting as best we can…. It’s not about finding the best approach. Just recognizing how we might look at the world differently b/c we were born at a certain time– and passed thru the world changing at a different stage in life…
- Org chart and Network picture
- Org chart and Network picture