1.
DEVELOPING A THEORY OF CHANGE
NCVO CAMPAIGNING CONFERENCE
10 SEPTEMBER 2018
SHEHNAAZ LATIF, LEAD CONSULTANT

2.
A description of how and why a
particular way of working will lead
to desired changes in certain
circumstances. It often also shows
how the intervention contributes to
longer-term, wider changes
WHAT IS THEORY OF CHANGE?

3.
PURPOSES OF THEORY OF CHANGE
Primarily for:
1. Planning
2. Evaluation
But can also be used for:
3. Consensus and communication
4. Improving existing interventions

4.
 It’s accessible
 It makes evaluation stronger
 It’s good for stakeholders
 It makes your work better
BENEFITS OF THEORY OF CHANGE

5.
WHERE DOES IT COME FROM?
 Experimental methods don’t
always work outside the lab
 But qualitative methods
good for internal validity,
less able to generalise

6.
Input  Process  Output  Outcome  Impact
Context* and values
The resources you use

The things you do

What you offer

Your results
Other factors that could affect your results
LOGIC MODEL

7.
CES PLANNING TRIANGLE ©
Outputs
Outcomes
Impact
Overall aim
The broader, longer
term change you want
to contribute to
Specific aims
The changes you want
to create
Objectives
The work you do

8.
WHAT CAN A THEORY OF CHANGE LOOK LIKE?
• Process and product
• Product usually a map and a narrative
• Can be strategic and high level, with nested,
project level TOCs underneath
8

9.
THEORY OF CHANGE – BACKWARDS MAPPING
Describe WHAT
needs to happen
first
All
outcomes
that must
be
achieved
BEFORE
long-term
Be a
healthier
person
Better diet
Reduced
alcohol
intake
Increased
consumption
of salad
More
physical
exercise
Fewer uber
rides
More hours
in the gym

10.
THEORY OF CHANGE – BACKWARDS MAPPING
Be a
healthier
person
Better diet
Reduced
alcohol
intake
Alternative
social
activities
Increased
consumption
of salad
Grow own
salad
More
physical
exercise
Fewer uber
rides
Bike
More hours
in the gym
Gym
membership
Show HOW
changes will be
made by
putting actions

11.
TOC NARRATIVES USUALLY INCLUDE
• Process for TOC development
• Intended long-term change (impact)
• Need and context, existing evidence
• Outcomes leading to the impact
• Chosen outputs and rationale
• Other actors
• Timelines
• Critical assumptions
• Link to M&E framework

12.
LET’S HAVE A GO!
- Discuss a recent/current campaign
o What are the issues? For whom?
o What evidence do you have?
o Is anyone else working on these issues?
o Who are you wanting to influence/make a difference to?
o What changes do you hope to make? What difference?
o How?
- Create a TOC map

13.
WANT TO KNOW MORE?
Theory of change training: https://www.ncvo.org.uk/training-
and-events/events-listing
Learn from others: Campaign to End Loneliness
www.campaigntoendloneliness.org/resources and Time to
Change www.time-to-change.org.uk/research-reports-
publications/campaign
Read: https://knowhownonprofit.org/how-to/how-to-build-a-
theory-of-change
Support: on campaign evaluation and/or to help you develop a
monitoring and evaluation framework for your campaign. Email
us: consultancy@ncvo.org.uk