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                                     Silver Inks and Pastes Markets—2012
                                                                                       Nano-451




                                                                       Published December 2011

                                                                             © NanoMarkets, LC




NanoMarkets, LC
PO Box 3840
Glen Allen, VA 23058
Tel: 804-360-2967
Web: www.nanomarkets.net




   NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
www.nanomarkets.net




Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based
on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment.
The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companies
and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms.
Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permission
of NanoMarkets, LC.




    NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1
   E.1 The Future of Silver Inks and Pastes When Silver Prices are So High .............................. 1 Page | i
   E.2 Thick-Film Electronics: New Opportunities in this Old Market? ...................................... 3
   E.3 Will the Nanosilver Ink Revolution Ever Happen? .......................................................... 3
   E.4 The Solar Industry: Do No More Subsidies Mean No More Silver? ................................. 5
   E.5 Displays and Lighting: What the Decline of Plasma Displays and the Rise of Flexible
   Displays and OLEDs Mean for Silver .................................................................................... 6
   E.6 Winners and Losers in the Silver Inks and Pastes Market ............................................... 7
   E.7 Will China Become a Major Player in Printed Silver? ..................................................... 9
   E.8 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Silver Inks and Pastes ......................................... 10


Chapter One: An Introduction to This Report ........................................................................ 12
   1.1 Ongoing Importance of Silver Inks and Pastes to Industrial Electronics Markets .......... 12
      1.1.1 The Effect of the High Price of Silver on the Industrial Inks and Pastes Market .......................................12
      1.1.2 Where is the Growth for Silver Inks? .........................................................................................................13
      1.1.3 Prospects for Silver Inks and Pastes in Photovoltaic Panels ......................................................................15
      1.1.4 Up-and-Coming Materials–Hybrids, Nanosilver and Silver Substitutes .....................................................16

   1.2 Objectives and Scope of This Report ........................................................................... 18
   1.3 Methodology.............................................................................................................. 18
   1.4 Plan of This Report ..................................................................................................... 19


Chapter Two: Silver Inks and Paste Materials ....................................................................... 21
   2.1 Developments Since Our Last Report .......................................................................... 21
      2.1.1 The Impact of Continuing High (and Volatile) Silver Prices ........................................................................21
      2.1.2 New Products and New Companies ...........................................................................................................22
      2.1.3 New Regulations on Nanosilver: Impact on Silver Inks and Pastes ............................................................23

   2.2 The Growing Competitive Challenges to Silver from Other Materials ........................... 26
      2.1.1 Copper Solutions ........................................................................................................................................27
      2.2.2 Carbon-Based Inks and Pastes ...................................................................................................................27


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      2.2.3 Nanotubes, Conductive Polymers, and Other Emerging Threats ..............................................................28

   2.3 Is the Nanosilver Inks Revolution Postponed, or Will It Never Happen? ....................... 29
      2.3.1 What the Nanosilver Ink Firms Say They are Doing Now ...........................................................................29
      2.3.2 Nanosilver Inks and the Future of Jetted Electronics ................................................................................31

   2.4 Key Points from This Chapter ...................................................................................... 33 Page | ii


Chapter Three: Applications for Silver Inks and Pastes .......................................................... 36
   3.1 Are There Emerging Niche Applications in Traditional Thick-Film Electronics? ............. 36
      3.1.1 Printed Circuit Boards ................................................................................................................................37
      3.1.2 Membrane Switches ..................................................................................................................................37
      3.1.3 Resistive Heaters ........................................................................................................................................38
      3.1.4 Capacitors and Other Discrete Components .............................................................................................39

   3.2 Solar Panels................................................................................................................ 40
      3.2.1 Reduced Government Subsidies for Solar: Should the Silver Inks and Pastes Firms Worry? ...................41
      3.2.2 What to Expect from the Crystalline Silicon PV Sector ..............................................................................42
      3.2.3 New Opportunities for Printed Silver in TFPV ............................................................................................46
      3.2.4 Will New Forms of PV—OPV and DSC—Need Printed Silver in the Future? .............................................49

   3.3 Displays, Lighting, and Silver ....................................................................................... 50
      3.3.1 Prospects for Silver Inks and Pastes in LCDs ..............................................................................................50
      3.3.2 Plasma Displays: A Big Silver User, But Until When? .................................................................................50
      3.3.3 The Rise of OLED Displays and Lighting: Are There Opportunities for Silver Inks and Pastes?..................51
      3.3.4 Electrophoretic Displays: How Might They Use Silver Inks and Pastes? ....................................................52

   3.4 RFIDs and Printed Silver .............................................................................................. 53
      3.4.1 Is Printed Silver in RFIDs an Opportunity Whose Time has Passed? ..........................................................53
      3.4.2 Nanosilver in RFID Antennas ......................................................................................................................54

   3.5 Sensors ...................................................................................................................... 55
      3.5.1 Printed Silver and the Biosensors and Medical Diagnostics Markets ........................................................56
      3.5.2 Silver in the Motion and Security Sensors Market .....................................................................................57
      3.5.3 Sensors and Nanosilver Inks ......................................................................................................................58

   3.6 Key Points from this Chapter ...................................................................................... 58


Chapter Four: Recent Developments in the Supplier Industry Structure for Silver Inks and
Pastes and their Implications ............................................................................................... 61
   4.1 An Overview of the Supplier Base ............................................................................... 61
      4.1.1 New and Notable Start-Ups? .....................................................................................................................61



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     4.1.2 China’s Goal to Become a High-Tech Powerhouse and the Impact on the Silver Inks and Pastes Markets
     ............................................................................................................................................................................62

  4.2Analysis of the Latest Product and Marketing Strategies by Leading and Influential
  Suppliers .......................................................................................................................... 64
     4.2.1 Advanced Nano Products ...........................................................................................................................66                       Page | iii
     4.2.2 Cima NanoTech ..........................................................................................................................................69
     4.3.3 Creative Materials ......................................................................................................................................70
     4.3.4 Sun Chemical Group (U.S.)/DIC Global (Japan) ..........................................................................................72
     4.3.5 DuPont (U.S.)..............................................................................................................................................74
     4.3.6 Ferro Corporation (U.S.) .............................................................................................................................76
     4.3.7 Harima Chemical (Japan) ...........................................................................................................................80
     4.3.8 Henkel Electronics (Germany)....................................................................................................................81
     4.3.9 Heraeus (Germany) ....................................................................................................................................84
     4.3.10 InkTec (Korea) ..........................................................................................................................................86
     4.3.11 Methode Electronics (U.S.) ......................................................................................................................87



Chapter Five: Eight-Year Forecasts for Silver Inks and Pastes ................................................ 90
  5.1 Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions ................................................................ 90
     5.1.1 Changes in Assumptions and Methodology Since the Last Report ............................................................92
     5.1.2 Pricing of Silver Inks and Pastes .................................................................................................................93

  5.2 Forecasts by Application ............................................................................................. 95
     5.2.1 Photovoltaics .............................................................................................................................................95
     5.2.2 Plasma Displays ........................................................................................................................................103
     5.2.3 OLED Lighting ...........................................................................................................................................106
     5.2.3 RFIDs and Sensors ....................................................................................................................................109
     5.2.4 Traditional Thick-Film Applications ..........................................................................................................116

  5.3 Forecasts by Material ............................................................................................... 120
     5.3.1 Silver Screen-Printing Pastes – Conventional vs. Nanosilver ...................................................................120
     5.3.2 Silver Ink-Jet Inks in Electronics – Conventional vs. Nanosilver ...............................................................124
     5.3.3 Silver Inks: Gravure, Flexographic, and Other .........................................................................................127

  5.4 Summary of Silver Inks and Pastes Markets .............................................................. 130
  5.5 Alternative Scenarios................................................................................................ 134
  Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report ........................................................... 136
  About the Author ........................................................................................................... 137




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                                                                    List of Exhibits


Exhibit E-1 GRAND TOTALS - Summary Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Printing Inks and Pastes .................................10
Exhibit 4-1 Overview of Product Portfolios of Selected Silver Ink and Paste Suppliers ..............................................64                                       Page | iv
Exhibit 4-2 ANP Nanosilver Pastes ...............................................................................................................................67
Exhibit 4-3 ANP Nanosilver Inkjet Inks ........................................................................................................................67
Exhibit 4-4 Creative Materials: Silver Ink Product Range ...........................................................................................71
Exhibit 4-5 Selected Sun Chemical Silver Ink and Paste Products ..............................................................................73
Exhibit 4-6 Selected Silver-Only Screen Printing Paste Products in the Ferro Portfolio ..............................................77
Exhibit 4-7 Selected Silver And Nanosilver Printing Products From Harima ...............................................................81
Exhibit 4-8 Henkel Electronics: Selected Acheson Silver Inks and Pastes ..................................................................82
Exhibit 4-9 Overview of Selected Silver Pastes from Heraeus for Thick Film Electronics Applications .......................84
Exhibit 4-10 Overview of Selected Silver Pastes for PV Applications from Heraeus ...................................................85
Exhibit 4-11 InkTec Silver and Nanosilver Printing Inks and Pastes ............................................................................86
Exhibit 4-12 Selected Methode Silver Conductive Paste and Ink Products .................................................................88
Exhibit 5-1 Pricing of Silver and Silver Inks/Pastes 2012-2019 ....................................................................................94
Exhibit 5-2 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) PV ............................................96
Exhibit 5-3 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes for TFPV (all types), DSC, and OPV....................................99
Exhibit 5-4 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in PV Applications by Printing Method ...........................101
Exhibit 5-5 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in Plasma Display Panels (PDPs) .....................................104
Exhibit 5-6 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in OLED Lighting Applications .........................................107
Exhibit 5-7 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in RFIDs (Antennas and Chips) ........................................110
Exhibit 5-8 Eight Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes for Sensor Applications ...................................................114
Exhibit 5-9 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes for Traditional Thick-Film Applications ...........................117
Exhibit 5-10 Eight-Year Forecasts of Conventional Silver and Nanosilver Screen Printing Pastes by Application ....121
Exhibit 5-11 Eight-Year Forecasts of Conventional Silver and Nanosilver Inkjet Printing Inks by Application ..........124
Exhibit 5-12 Eight-Year Forecasts of Conventional Silver and Nanosilver Flexographic, Gravure, and Other Printing
        Inks by Application ...........................................................................................................................................128
Exhibit 5-13 GRAND TOTALS - Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Printing Inks and Pastes .........................131




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Executive Summary

E.1 The Future of Silver Inks and Pastes When Silver Prices are So High
NanoMarkets estimates that the total market for silver inks and pastes will grow to a value of Page | 1
about $7.6 billion in 2012, but that it will contract over the forecast period to about $6.8 billion
by 2018.
Several factors are behind our prediction that the value of the silver inks and pastes market will
drop:
      Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the silver inks and pastes industry is the persistent
       environment of relentlessly high silver prices—well over $30 per troy ounce, with no
       relief in sight. And given the increasing popularity of silver exchange traded funds (ETFs)
       combined with global economic unease, we do not expect that prices will come down
       any time soon. In this environment, manufacturers of silver inks and pastes are faced
       with a new paradigm for their cost basis, which means new business strategies are
       needed.
      The photovoltaics (PV) market, which saw a big increase in both global PV cell
       production and in consumption of silver inks and pastes in the last couple of years, will
       not grow at the same pace going forward. Instead, growth rates for PV, while still good,
       seem certain to decline, in no small part due to a decrease in governments’ support for
       PV installations. And to make matters worse, more and more PV is going to thin-film
       which does not use nearly as much silver as the traditional crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV
       that dominates the market today. Our forecasts suggest that as early as 2013, the value
       of silver inks and pastes consumed by the PV sector will start to decline.
      Plasma display panels, historically large consumers of silver printing pastes, are in long-
       term decline in the face of serious competition from liquid crystal displays (LCDs).
      While traditional silver users—membrane switches, printed circuit boards, capacitors,
       etc.—will still be major silver users, it is also clear that they will be in need of finding
       more profitable markets and products. This indicates a strong trend towards higher
       value-added inks that target specific niches. These new inks will take some time to
       develop, and will probably not immediately offset lost revenues from substitutes or soft
       demand.
      Customers across the applications spectrum will be looking very hard for ways to reduce
       silver usage—or replace it altogether—wherever they can, even if the opportunities to


    NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
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       do so are limited. In this environment, silver ink and paste manufacturers will need to
       work equally hard to maintain their market share, and they will need to offer new
       products that convincingly mitigate rising silver costs. Historically, alternatives to silver
       inks and pastes have always done well when silver prices spiked, but they have also
       always disappeared when silver prices settled down again. But since today’s high silver Page | 2
       prices look as if they are here to stay for a while, the situation may be different, and
       manufacturers of alternatives may face a much more stable market for their products.

There is, however, some good news that might soften the negative impact of the high silver
prices. Silver is simply too conductive, too compatible with printing, and too entrenched in too
many applications for lower-cost/lower-performance alternatives to make a very large dent.
Specifically:

      The high price of silver is a longstanding unpleasant fact for the electronics industry,
       perhaps more so at today’s prices, but still not catastrophic to sellers of silver materials.
       Silver’s unique conductivity characteristics make it very difficult to find alternatives, so
       higher precious metal costs, in most cases, are simply passed along to the customers.

      A number of interesting applications are just emerging that may turn out to be the next
       big “waves” that the silver inks and pastes industry can ride the way it has ridden PV for
       the last five years. They include, for example, flexible displays and lighting based on
       organic light emitting diodes (OLED), both of which could turn out to eventually be large
       consumers of printed silver circuitry. The sensors market is also very promising, both in
       the (bio)medical sensors area and in everyday, ubiquitous consumer electronics
       applications that seek to create a world of pervasive computing.

      More good news is that despite ongoing worldwide economic sluggishness, increased
       industrialization and urbanization of the developing world should increase the per
       capita expenditures on the kinds of products in which silver inks and pastes are used.
       And, of course, silver inks and pastes are now used in so many consumer products that
       the increase in the world population is itself a spur to demand for silver inks and pastes.

In summary, high silver prices lead electronics manufacturers—the consumers of silver inks and
pastes—to seek to create greater added value in their products, in the hope of gaining better
margins, or at least preserving their margins. This means that there is clearly room for
innovation in the silver ink and paste industry. New silver ink and paste formulations are
needed, and the needs of the electronics industry are producing a fertile field for silver ink and
paste product development.


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E.2 Thick-Film Electronics: New Opportunities in this Old Market?
Traditional thick-film electronics, which comprises a vast number of printed circuit board
applications as well as printed membrane switches and the like, has traditionally been one of
the largest users of conventional silver inks and pastes (mostly pastes). We expect it—absent a
serious worldwide financial crisis—to remain a relatively stable high-volume market with a few Page | 3
genuine opportunities for silver suppliers:

      With so many mature processes in place and so much accumulated manufacturing
       experience in the thick-film sector, it will be especially hard for firms to eliminate silver
       inks and pastes altogether, unless very close substitutes can be found. And very close
       substitutes are, as previously noted, hard to find. Furthermore, replacing printed silver
       with some entirely different process—such as etched copper or another subtractive
       process—would be hard to achieve in many production lines. New production may
       consider using alternatives, but existing production lines are unlikely to install
       completely new equipment.

      There may be some substitution of traditional thick film pastes with other silver-based
       products, like silver or nanosilver inks. This shift will be driven by the trend toward
       miniaturization of consumer electronics and the need for finer lines and higher
       resolution of conductive traces. Here again is an opportunity of sorts for the silver inks
       and pastes suppliers. Innovative suppliers that can provide new inks or pastes that
       address specific needs of customers, with either conventionally sized silver or
       nanosilver, can eke out gains in market share.

In fact, suppliers of silver inks and pastes cannot afford to ignore the thick-film sector, simply
because it is so large. Getting into (or more deeply into) this market with new products will not
be easy, though. It is, after all, highly mature. In this market, customers will continue to
balance the risks of switching to a new material against attempting to ride out the high silver
commodity prices while sticking with conventional silver pastes. For materials suppliers of all
kinds in this sector, the business development struggle for the next few years will center on
these switching economics issues and arguments that either turn customers to a new material
or calm their concerns about the high price of silver.

E.3 Will the Nanosilver Ink Revolution Ever Happen?
Will nanosilver ever become a major factor in the printed circuitry market? It has long been
touted as having a big future in (currently nonexistent) novel “printed electronics” applications,
but this has yet to be proven. The market pull for printed electronics has just never materialized



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in a meaningful way. Nanosilver ink makers have had a hard time of it as they have chased after
new markets that do not really exist yet.

Printable nanosilver makers claim other seemingly compelling advantages over conventional
silver inks and pastes, too. These include lower temperature processing and less usage of Page | 4
precious silver. But nanosilver-based inks and pastes have been around for nearly a decade
now, and they have yet to take off in the conventional printed silver markets. What is behind
the lack of progress?

      The notion that nanosilver can accomplish what conventional silver can but at much
       lower loading, thereby reducing costs substantially, has come into serious question.
       Savings from using less silver are still largely eaten up by the higher cost of the
       nanosilver itself, let alone the changes in design and equipment that are needed to use
       it. This remains at least partially true despite high silver prices that should have led to a
       bigger narrowing of the cost-in-use gap between conventional silver and nanosilver.

      Economic uncertainty leads to risk aversion and causes device manufacturers to stick
       with the conventional silver materials with which they are already comfortable.

      The outlook for printed nanosilver is complicated by a murky regulatory environment
       for silver specifically and nanomaterials in general

These factors have led NanoMarkets to reduce our expectations for nanosilver over the next
decade. We are feeling decidedly less optimistic about nanosilver’s future than we were a
couple of years ago, and have reduced growth rates considerably. We are now estimating that
the printed nanosilver market will grow from its very small base today of about $85 million to
only about $145 million by 2019. We hope we are wrong, but we have no reason to be more
bullish about nanosilver at this point.

In the midst of this pessimism, there is at least some good news:

      High silver commodity prices will—at the margin—encourage more customers to
       evaluate moving to higher-performance nanosilver. High silver commodity prices have
       narrowed the cost-in-use gap between nanosilver and silver in a meaningful way, even
       though more can be done.

      Today a large fraction of nanosilver ink costs is still tied up in processing, scale-up, and
       production but these costs should decline as the material matures.




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      There is growth in high-resolution printing inks, especially inkjet nanosilver inks, and
       especially in sensors for emerging printed electronics, where traditional silver pastes are
       generally not suitable. High-resolution printing is tailor-made for nanosilver, and these
       new applications may be able to support nanosilver’s higher price, at least for a few
       more years.                                                                                 Page | 5

In this new market, nanosilver inks (and nanosilver pastes) may finally have a chance to grow
beyond niche status, although probably not into a big business. After years of watching not
much happen in the nanosilver inks business NanoMarkets now believes that only modest
growth will come from this segment until some clear advantage of application emerges in the
marketplace.

E.4 The Solar Industry: Do No More Subsidies Mean No More Silver?
The answer to this question is, of course, “no.” Printed silver in the PV market is here to stay,
but silver ink and paste firms should worry. The solar panel industry was for several years one
of the fastest growing sectors for printed silver, primarily because crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar
panels use large quantities of silver paste to create both electrodes and tabbing strips.
However, a lot is happening to discourage manufacturers of silver inks and pastes in this sector:

      Silver pastes for back electrodes and for tabbing pastes in c-Si PV are seeing increased
       competition from lower-cost substitutes, like aluminum for back electrodes/reflectors,
       and non-silver soldering pastes in tabbing applications.

      The newer thin-film PV technologies—especially CdTe PV—are taking an ever greater
       share of the solar panel industry and are less likely to use silver for electrodes.

      The badly depressed construction industry in much of the world has reduced the size of
       many major addressable markets for solar panels, and although 2010 was a banner year
       for PV production despite the global recession, growth rates are not expected to stay at
       2010 levels. In addition, a lot of the PV production occurred in China, and some PV
       industry observers believe that China is sitting on a large, unsold inventory of panels
       that will take some time to work off.

And most importantly, governmental support in the form of consumer subsidies and loan
guarantees are under considerable challenge around the world, as governments look for ways
to rein in spending. The opportunities available to suppliers of materials to the PV sector are
thus highly dependent on policy consideration rather than economics. This could have very




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serious consequences for silver ink and paste firms that rely on PV for a large portion of their
revenue, and should be judged as a significant risk factor.

Although we expect that silver ink and paste suppliers will not have it especially easy in the near
future, there are some signs of hope:                                                               Page | 6
      The end of subsidies, although certainly chilling in the near-term, could be good news in
       the longer term since it encourages market-oriented PV technologies to compete.

      Silver inks and pastes used in crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV electrode fabrication make up
       the largest share of the PV market. We expect this sector to retain a strong position in
       the solar panel market, especially in front electrodes where there are few suitable
       alternatives.

      Silver ink manufacturers have developed silver ink products specifically for TFPV that
       help to address TFPV-specific challenges. Next-generation PV technologies, not yet out
       of the lab, may use more silver.

In summary, PV of all kinds is very sensitive to materials costs, especially in the current era of
rapidly declining solar panel costs and reduced government incentives. Therefore, innovations
to reduce the cost of the printed silver electrodes will be welcomed by the marketplace in the
next few years. These innovations might include not only ways of making silver more effective
as a conductor—such as through the use of nanosilver inks—but also through ways of using less
silver in conventional inks and pastes.

E.5 Displays and Lighting: What the Decline of Plasma Displays and the Rise of Flexible
    Displays and OLEDs Mean for Silver
The market for silver inks and pastes in one important sector—plasma display panels (PDPs)—is
almost certainly in a period of slow and steady decline. We do not anticipate that this market
will completely disappear, but it is facing serious challenges. The latest LCDs rival the
performance of PDPs in almost every characteristic important to the consumer, and this means
that PDPs are now competing primarily on price.

This situation robs the silver ink and paste industry of a major consumer of printed silver.
Suppliers of silver inks and pastes will need to find alternative markets in which to sell their
products or face declining volumes. The good news is that we think there are sizeable,
emerging opportunities that will offer a way out. The bad news, however, is that these
emerging applications are not yet mature and are, in fact, probably at least several years out.




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It is too early to say with much certainty what opportunities will ultimately succeed in this
segment, but some possibilities are as follows:

Flexible displays have been talked about for many years, but now seem to be on the verge of
commercialization (thanks largely to Samsung). Commercialization of flexible displays implies Page | 7
the arrival of flexible backplanes—a huge challenge. Such backplanes will require flexible
interconnects that could be provided with silver traces of some kind. Flexible displays are
unlikely to appear on the market until 2012 or 2013, and no one can be sure if consumers will
like them. But if (say) they were to attract an iPad-like following, they might represent a
significant opportunity for silver inks going forward.

Another and, we think, even more promising future opportunity is the OLED lighting market.
OLED lighting is poised for very rapid growth, especially after 2015, which is when it is
anticipated that OLED lighting’s technical performance will be sufficient to meet market needs.
Currently, OLED lighting does not employ printed silver, but silver ink and paste suppliers
should make the case now to OLED panel manufacturers that printed silver grids can enable the
market to meet its full potential:

      Printed silver could be used beneficially in bus bars or grids to prevent visible brightness
       gradients and resistive heat losses caused by significant voltage drops across long spans
       of (less) conductive transparent electrodes, and

      Printed silver could be useful for interconnects for concatenated OLED lighting panels.

If OLED lighting ultimately attracts consumer attention, it could be another mass-market silver
ink and paste consumer. A good sign is that OLED lighting is attracting the attention of an
impressive list of electronics and lighting companies, some of whom are building pilot plants to
build OLED lighting panels.

E.6 Winners and Losers in the Silver Inks and Pastes Market
The winners in the silver inks and pastes market over the next eight years will be defined by
those companies that understand the new environment and figure out how to reorganize their
product lines to adjust to the new market realities. The losers, of course, will be those firms
that fail to understand the new paradigm. Some firms to watch are as follows:
      Heraeus has emerged in the past two years as a major force in the PV pastes business
       and claims to supply most of the top PV panel makers. The firm appears to have
       entered the market at exactly the right time, when PV was booming, and it managed to
       quickly develop and commercialize PV pastes that reduced silver usage and lowered


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    manufacturing costs. But how long can this last? As noted, the PV sector is in for a
    bumpy road in the next several years, and it is not clear to us how Heraeus will handle it,
    having few other outlets for its silver pastes. In all likelihood, the firm will do better than
    many other PV paste companies; its recent market successes signal to us that it will
    remain a preferred supplier and should be able to hold onto a significant market share. Page | 8
    But there is caveat: the story at Heraeus may be quite different if DuPont’s legal
    challenge to Heraeus’ IP is successful.

   Henkel is another interesting firm. It is already a giant in the silver inks and pastes
    business, and interestingly, it has not focused heavily on the PV sector for new
    developments. This move may have been less strategy than necessity—Henkel is more
    adept at developing lower temperature curing inks and pastes than the high-fire
    products used by (most of) the PV industry—but it may turn out to be a benefit. If the
    PV sector falters even more than expected, Henkel’s volumes should be largely
    unaffected. And it already well entrenched in the thick film and other silver ink/paste
    markets.

   The prospects at DuPont are mixed. On one hand, DuPont’s PDP paste business is going
    to decline. In addition, it is facing serious competition in inks and pastes for the PV
    sector from Heraeus and the large number of Chinese silver paste firms. Fortunately for
    DuPont, there is much else that the company has going for it that will soften the impact
    of this dual blow. It has a large legacy business in high-fire silver inks for electronics in
    which there are few suitable alternatives. It is also in a good position to hold onto
    market share wherever it can by relying on its status as a major global materials supplier
    with production, marketing, and logistics infrastructure throughout the world.

   Unless we are wrong about the future of the PV market, far too many firms in China are
    focused on inks and pastes specifically for PV. If the market share of c-Si PV loses
    ground, as is expected over the next decade, to alternative PV technologies that use
    much less silver, then what will these firms do? We do not think all of them will survive.

   There are also too many nanosilver firms to support the size of the nanosilver inks and
    pastes market. Larger materials firms that have nanosilver programs but that do not rely
    on nanosilver for revenue, such as Bayer MaterialScience and Methode, can simply shut
    down their programs. But smaller technology start-ups, whose business is significantly
    focused on printable nanosilver, like NanoMas, will face real problems. The market has
    simply not developed as expected, and there is only so long one can survive with
    balance sheets in the red. Unless some of the smaller firms can convincingly shift


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       toward other technologies, as Cima Nanotech is doing with transparent conductors, for
       example, we do not think all the nanosilver ink firms can survive the next decade. One
       potential exception is PChem Associates, which is betting on high-speed nanosilver
       printing inks (not ink-jet) and which are claimed to deliver cost-in-use savings of 75
       percent compared to conventional silver inks.                                          Page | 9

E.7 Will China Become a Major Player in Printed Silver?
As spelled out in its latest “Five-Year Plan,” China is making a concerted effort to shift its
economy from one based on exports to one driven by domestic demand from the Chinese
middle class. China recognizes that it is simply not possible to grow its real per capita income at
recent historic rates using its current low-cost manufacturing strategy; instead, it now needs to
internally capture more of the added value of the products it produces. Part of the Chinese
strategy involves investment in areas directly related to printed silver: alternative energy (PV),
displays, and the required enabling materials for these application areas.

Currently, the Chinese ink/paste suppliers have limited activities outside of the region, but we
do not expect the situation to remain static:

      Small Chinese firms have been producing generic silver pastes and inks for quite a long
       time with the apparent goal of selling these materials at low prices to the R&D
       community in relatively small quantities for applications that do not need high
       performances.

      Going forward, any success the country has in spurring domestic demand only
       accelerates the potential for growth in silver inks and pastes.

      Under the new policy, we expect that Chinese firms will ramp up to a point where they
       are competitive with American, Japanese, Korean and European materials firms. This
       implies both increasing quality and performance of products and developing new
       advanced materials.

While increased competition from Chinese suppliers in the near term may be troubling to
Western suppliers of printable silver materials, in the long run, we believe the shift described
above will be beneficial to the market overall. A more successful China—and especially a larger,
wealthier customer base for the electronics products produced in high-tech manufacturing—
will increase the size of the addressable market for silver inks and paste suppliers worldwide
and—absent import controls—should help to grow the market for inks and paste suppliers
around the world.



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Global suppliers with the right materials and right supply partnerships in China can prosper if
China’s strategy is successful. Specifically, the big silver ink and paste firms that already have a
strong presence in Asia—DuPont, Henkel, Heraeus, and so forth—will have an easier time
capitalizing on increased domestic demand in China than smaller firms.
                                                                                                               Page | 10
E.8 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Silver Inks and Pastes
A summary of NanoMarkets’ eight-year forecasts for silver inks and pastes is shown in Exhibit E-
1.

Exhibit E-1 GRAND TOTALS - Summary Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Printing Inks and Pastes
($ Millions)
                                    2012           2013           2014   2015   2016   2017   2018      2019
By Application:
Photovoltaics
PDPs
OLED Lighting
RFIDs
Sensors
Traditional Thick Film
GRAND TOTAL

By Ink Composition:
Conventional Silver
Inks and Pastes
Nanosilver Inks and
Pastes
GRAND TOTAL

By Printing Method:
Screen Pastes
Ink-Jet Inks
Flexo/Gravure/Other
Inks
GRAND TOTAL
© NanoMarkets 2011
Note: Rounding may cause minor discrepancies in last digit of totals.




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www.nanomarkets.net


          Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes by
                           Application ($ Millions)
 9000.0
 8000.0
 7000.0                                                                                                   Page | 11
                                                                   Traditional Thick Film
 6000.0
 5000.0                                                            Sensors
 4000.0                                                            RFIDs
 3000.0
                                                                   OLED Lighting
 2000.0
 1000.0                                                            PDPs
    0.0                                                            Photovoltaics
          2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
                                Year
 © NanoMarkets, LC



             Total Value of Silver Inks and Pastes Market ($ Millions)
 7800.0
 7600.0
 7400.0
 7200.0
 7000.0
 6800.0
 6600.0
 6400.0
 6200.0
            2012     2013    2014      2015          2016   2017   2018        2019
                                              Year
 © NanoMarkets, LC




To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets at sales@nanomarket.net or
via telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us at www.nanomarkets.net.




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www.nanomarkets.net


Chapter One: An Introduction to This Report

1.1 Ongoing Importance of Silver Inks and Pastes to Industrial Electronics Markets

       1.1.1 The Effect of the High Price of Silver on the Industrial Inks and                         Page | 12
             Pastes Market
Silver has always been an expensive metal and probably always will be. But the most obvious
change in the silver inks/pastes market since our last report is the seemingly persistent high
price of silver, with no relief in sight. Silver commodity prices have been pushed upward
because of the uncertain global economic environment in which investors have shifted
increasingly toward “hard” assets. Silver ETFs have accumulated large stores of silver in order to
handle the increased demand for precious metal investments.

At the time of writing, silver prices have somewhat stabilized, but they have done so at a level
nearly twice that of just two years ago (in inflation-adjusted dollars). And there are no good
reasons that the situation will change very much over the next five years or so.

None of this is especially good news for the silver inks and pastes business, since the price of
these materials is largely determined by the price of silver and these materials are often sold
into moderately price sensitive environments. Despite these negatives, however, there are
some reasons for executives in the silver inks and pastes business not to feel too depressed:

      The high price of silver is now a fact of life for the electronics industry. On the one hand,
       its unique conductivity characteristics ensure that silver is hard to dispense with in many
       applications.

      Where silver inks and pastes can be dispensed with their high price will enable supplier
       firms to develop silver inks and pastes substitutes with an assurance that the market for
       them will persist. In the past, silver ink/paste substitutes have appeared and then
       disappeared when the price of silver fell again. Given the current economic climate, it
       seems that the manufacturers of silver ink/paste substitutes are in for the long haul this
       time around.

      Counteracting ongoing worldwide economic sluggishness will be increased
       industrialization and urbanization of the developing world; which is likely to increase the
       per capita expenditures on the kinds of products in which silver inks and pastes are
       used. And, of course, silver inks and pastes are now used in so many consumer products
       that the increase in the world population is itself a spur to demand for silver inks and
       pastes.


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      There are a number of interesting applications for silver inks and pastes that are just
       emerging. They include, for example, OLED lighting, and sensors. NanoMarkets
       believes that there are real opportunities here, but we also caution that some
       traditional applications that use quite a lot of silver paste at the present time are likely
       to experience at best modest growth, and this could hurt the silver inks and pastes Page | 13
       business in the next few years. Examples here are plasma TVs (in long-term decline) and
       crystalline silicon solar panels (a market likely to see a decline in government support).

       1.1.2 Where is the Growth for Silver Inks?
Despite high silver prices (indeed, partially because of them), NanoMarkets expects that
revenues from silver inks and pastes will remain substantial in a number of applications.

Traditional thick-film electronics: Thick-film electronics, which comprises a vast number of
printed circuit board applications as well as printed membrane switches and the like, has
traditionally been the largest user of conventional silver inks and pastes (mostly pastes), and we
expect it—absent a serious worldwide financial crisis—to remain a relatively stable high-volume
market with even a few genuine opportunities appearing from time to time:

      We think that with so many mature processes in place and so much accumulated
       manufacturing experience in the thick-film sector, it is going to be very hard for firms to
       get rid of silver pastes and inks in a wholesale manner, unless very close substitutes can
       be found. As to replacing printed silver with some entirely different process, this would
       also be hard to achieve. “Printed silver” provides not only higher resolution and fewer
       process steps than subtractive processes such as etched copper, but also the option of
       applying conductive traces at different times.

      Substitution of traditional thick film pastes with silver inks, including potentially
       nanosilver inks, in this segment will be driven by the trend toward miniaturization of
       consumer electronics and the need for finer lines and higher resolution of conductive
       traces. Here, again, is an opportunity of sorts for the silver inks and pastes business.

      Even without high volume growth—and with some negative growth in certain sub-
       sectors like membrane switches—increases in silver prices will drive substantial revenue
       growth. An open question for suppliers of inks and pastes is how they are going to
       capture some of the new value encapsulated in silver metal.

Suppliers of silver inks and pastes (except maybe, boutique suppliers of nanosilver products)
cannot afford to ignore the thick-film sector, simply because it is so large; traditional thick-film



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paste sales will still make up nearly half of the total silver inks and pastes market for the
foreseeable and thus present significant opportunities. Still, we think that silver paste suppliers
should not expect too much from this sector. It is, after all, highly mature. In this market,
customers for inks and pastes will continue to balance the risks of switching to a new material
against attempting to ride out the high silver commodity prices while sticking with conventional Page | 14
silver pastes. For materials suppliers of all kinds in this sector, the business development
struggle for the next few years is going to center around these switching economics issues and
arguments that either turn customers to a new material or calm their concerns about the high
price of silver.

Displays, OLEDs, and solid-state lighting (SSL): Silver inks and pastes are used to create
electrodes and interconnects in a broad array of displays and lighting products:

      Here the good news for the silver inks and pastes business is that new types of
       technologies are apparently coming to market quite quickly in this sector and could
       emerge as sizeable markets for silver inks and pastes over the next five years.

      The bad news is that one sector—plasma displays (PDPs)—that has been a large user of
       silver in the past seems to be in slow and steady decline. We think it will be hard for the
       newer applications that fall into this segment to offset the declining demand from PDPs
       for quite a few years; these newer applications aren’t mature enough yet.

It is too early to say with much certainty what opportunities will appear in this segment. But
there are a couple of such opportunities that seem to be looming:

      Flexible displays have been talked about for many years, but now seem to be at the cusp
       of commercialization (thanks largely to Samsung). This implies the arrival of flexible
       backplanes; a huge challenge. Such backplanes would seem to require flexible
       interconnects that could be provided with silver traces of some kind. Flexible displays
       are unlikely to appear on the market until 2012 and nobody can be really sure if
       consumers will like them. But if (say) they were to attract an iPad-like following they
       might represent a significant opportunity for silver inks going forward.

      The OLED lighting market seems poised for very rapid growth, especially after 2015
       when it is anticipated that the technical performance of this kind of lighting will be
       sufficient to meet market needs. In addition, the demise of the historically dominant
       incandescent bulb is creating a market opening in the general lighting market, which
       may partially filled by OLED lighting panels. OLED lighting may employ printed silver,



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       mainly in the form of (1) bus bars, to prevent visible brightness gradients due to the
       significant voltage drops and resistive heat losses across long spans of (less) conductive
       transparent electrodes and (2) interconnects for concatenated OLED lighting panels. If
       OLED lighting ultimately attracts consumer attention this could be another mass market
       silver ink user. A good sign is that OLED lighting is attracting the attention of an Page | 15
       impressive list of electronics and lighting companies, some of whom are constructing
       pilot plants to build OLED lighting panels.

Silver inks: The long-term trajectory of such products and markets is still very uncertain, but it
is quite possible, as we have already noted, that they will end up using plenty of silver. In
particular, we see the thin silver traces that OLED lighting and flexible displays might need as an
opportunity for nanosilver inks. One reason for this is that historically nanosilver inks were
developed specifically with these applications in mind. (This was the area that Cabot actively
pursued when this company heavily marketed its silver inks for printed electronics a few years
back.) It seems to be the applications not the inks that failed to emerge.

If some of the applications listed and hinted at above, take off, then a variety of opportunities
open up for ink makers, including inks that are designed to work specifically with inkjet, gravure,
flexographic, etc. Unfortunately, this is not exactly news. There are quite a few firms that have
emerged in the past five to seven years with ambitions to supply novel silver inks fine-tuned to
emerging applications. For the most part they have not found the market very encouraging.
Some of these firms have already gone out of business and OLED lighting, flexible displays and
the like might turn out to be their last best opportunity.

       1.1.3 Prospects for Silver Inks and Pastes in Photovoltaic Panels
The solar panel industry was, for several years, one of the fastest growing sectors for printed
silver; primarily because crystalline silicon solar panels use silver paste to create the front
electrode. However, in the past few years a lot has happened to discourage manufacturers of
silver inks and pastes in this sector:

      The newer thin-film PV technologies that are taking an ever greater share of the solar
       panel industry are less likely to use silver for electrodes;

      The badly depressed construction industry in much of the world has reduced many
       major addressable markets for solar panels generally;

      Governmental support in the form of consumer subsidies and loan guarantees is under
       considerable challenge around the world as governments look for areas to cut back on.


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       This could have very serious consequences for firms selling materials into the PV sector.
       When Spain ended PV subsidies, the market in Spain lost 90 percent of its value.

All of this suggests that the opportunities available for suppliers of silver and silver products into
the PV space are highly dependent on policy consideration, which should be judged a significant Page | 16
risk factor in view of the current worldwide financial problems. It also suggests that silver inks
and pastes firms are not going to have it especially easy in the near future. There are some
signs of hope though:

      The end of subsidies could be good news in the long run since it encourages market
       oriented PV technologies (although the near-term effects are certainly chilling).

      Silver inks and pastes used in crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV electrode fabrication make up
       the largest share of the PV market. We expect this sector to retain a strong position in
       the solar panel market, but expect growth rates in this sector to cool significantly.

      Silver ink manufacturers have developed silver ink products specifically for TFPV that
       help to address TFPV-specific challenges. It is also possible that next-generation PV
       technologies, not out the lab, may use silver.

PV of all kinds is very sensitive to materials costs, especially in the current era of collapsing solar
panel prices. Therefore innovations to reduce the cost of the printed silver electrodes are going
to be welcomed by the marketplace in the next few years. These innovations might include not
only ways of making silver more effective as a conductor—such as through the use of
nanosilver inks—but also through ways of using less silver in conventional inks and pastes.

       1.1.4 Up-and-Coming Materials–Hybrids, Nanosilver and Silver Substitutes
Inexpensive alternatives: Hybrid inks and pastes—combining silver and carbon or silver and
copper, for instance—can offer modest savings when a high level of performance is not critical.
In the paste sector materials of this kind have been available for decades.

This kind of material generally disappears from the market as soon as silver prices start to come
down. But, as we explained earlier, this is precisely what seems unlikely to happen in the near
term. As a result, as we also mentioned earlier, it seems likely that there may be more of an
opportunity for these inexpensive alternatives than in the past.

Printed nanosilver: A more strategic alternative to conventional silver inks and pastes is
nanosilver. As we have mentioned, this may have a future in printed electronics, but this has




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yet to be proven and nanosilver ink makers have had a hard time of it as they have chased after
new markets that don’t really exist yet.

Printed nanosilver makers claim other advantages over more conventional materials, too.
These include lower temperature processing and less usage/wastage of precious silver. These Page | 17
advantages would seem highly compelling. But nanosilver-based inks and pastes have been
around for nearly a decade now, and they have yet to take off in the market. What is behind
the lack of progress?

      That nanosilver can accomplish what conventional silver can but at much lower loading,
       thereby reducing costs substantially—has come into serious question. Savings from using
       less silver are still largely eaten up by the higher cost of the nanosilver itself, let alone
       the changes in design and equipment that are needed to use it. This remains at least
       partially true despite the recent spike in silver prices that should have led to a bigger
       narrowing of the cost-in-use gap between conventional silver and nanosilver.

      Economic uncertainty leads to risk aversion and causes device manufacturers to stick
       with the conventional silver materials with which they are already comfortable.

      The outlook for printed nanosilver is complicated by a murky regulatory environment
       for silver specifically and nanomaterials.

There is some good news:

      High silver commodity prices over $30 per troy ounce are a relatively recent
       phenomenon that will—at the margin—encourage more customers to switch to higher-
       performance nanosilver. High silver commodity prices have narrowed the cost-in-use
       gap between nanosilver and silver in a meaningful way, even though more can be done.

      Today, a large fraction of nanosilver ink costs is still tied up in processing, scale-up, and
       production costs, and these costs should decline further as the material matures.

      There is growth in high-resolution printing inks, especially in emerging printed
       electronics, where traditional silver pastes are generally not suitable. High resolution
       printing is tailor-made for nanosilver, and these new applications may be able to
       support nanosilver’s higher price, at least for a few more years.

In this new market, nanosilver inks (and nanosilver pastes) may finally have a chance to grow
beyond niche status, although this is a long way from saying they are going to be big business.



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After years of watching not much happen in the nanosilver inks business NanoMarkets now
believes that only modest growth will come from this segment until some clear advantage of
application emerges in the marketplace. For the time being, nanosilver firms have done just
about all they can do in terms of market development; they are going to have to wait until the
silver ink users catch up!                                                                     Page | 18

1.2 Objectives and Scope of This Report
The primary objective of this report is to identify and quantify the opportunities for silver inks
and pastes. NanoMarkets has been covering the electronics markets for silver for over five
years, and is widely regarded as the premier supplier of industry information in this segment.
With this in mind, the goal of this report is to adjust and expand our previous forecasts and
strategic analysis with the constantly changing markets for these materials in mind.

In addition, as part of this analysis, we critically examine the strategies of the key players in the
silver inks/pastes markets, and identify what we believe to be the trends indicating likely
success (or not) at different firms. Finally, as always in NanoMarkets reports, we include eight-
year market forecasts for silver inks and pastes by application and by material.

The scope of the materials covered in this report is silver and nanosilver inks and pastes. We
have excluded from coverage here transparent nanosilver inks (covered in other NanoMarkets
reports and involving different players and markets than the materials covered here); printed
antimicrobial silver (better covered as part of a broader consideration of antimicrobial silver),
and silver-based conductive adhesives. The applications covered are the ones in which printed
silver of various kinds is a major factor including the traditional thick-film electronics
applications, solar panels, and next-generation printed electronics (especially displays).

This report is international in scope. The forecasts are worldwide forecasts and we have not
been geographically selective in the firms that we have covered in the report or interviewed in
order to collect information. Where there are geographical factors at work—as is the case in
the display sector—we discuss this more fully in the report.

1.3 Methodology
The methodology for this report is explained in more detail in Chapter Five of this report which
deals with forecasts. Here we note that in general the approach we take, broadly speaking, is
to apply economic analysis to the information that NanoMarkets continues to collect on the
silver inks and pastes market and other related sectors.




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The information for this work is derived from a variety of sources, but principally comes from
primary sources, including NanoMarkets' ongoing interview program of entrepreneurs,
business development and marketing managers, and technologists involved with silver
materials and emerging electronics of all kinds. We also drew on the technical literature,
relevant company Web sites, trade journals, government resources, and various collateral items Page | 19
from trade shows and conferences.

Some of the applications-related market information in this report comes from our most recent
reports on the covered applications areas. Reports from which some data have been shared
include: “Nanosilver Markets – 2011,” “Silver Powders and Flakes – 2011” and “Silver in
Photovoltaics – 2010.” In addition, some of the historical information on silver and silver
inks/pastes has been carried over from the last version of this report, "Silver Inks and Pastes
2011," from December 2010. Where information has been used in an earlier report, it has been
reconsidered in light of current developments and updated accordingly.

The forecasting approach used in this report is to identify and quantify the underlying
applications markets, the materials needs that are or can be served by silver inks/pastes, and
the technological and market pressures that affect ink/paste usage in those markets. The stated
plans of the key firms are, of course, of special interest, although NanoMarkets critically
considers these claims in light of all available data.

1.4 Plan of This Report
In Chapter Two, we examine the silver inks and pastes that are used in the electronics industry;
the strategies to reduce cost, increase performance, and customize materials to specific uses;
and the materials that are used or likely to emerge as partial substitutes for silver in inks and
pastes.

In Chapter Three, we discuss the applications and markets for silver inks and pastes. We discuss
printed silver in the traditional thick-film applications and identify opportunities that may still
exist for suppliers to make money is this mature market. We also examine the other
applications for silver inks and pastes in displays, solid-state lighting, photovoltaics, RFIDs and
security printing, and sensors. We identify trends in these sub-sectors that will affect silver ink
and paste suppliers’ abilities to sell into them, and we identify key areas that show promise for
making money.

In Chapter Four we discuss the profiles and strategies of the major suppliers of silver inks and
pastes of various types, and Chapter Five contains our eight-year forecasts of silver inks and




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www.nanomarkets.net

pastes used in the electronics industry. These forecasts are presented by market segment and
by type of silver ink/paste wherever possible.



                                                                                                    Page | 20




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Silver Inks and Pastes Markets – 2012

  • 1. www.nanomarkets.net Silver Inks and Pastes Markets—2012 Nano-451 Published December 2011 © NanoMarkets, LC NanoMarkets, LC PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Tel: 804-360-2967 Web: www.nanomarkets.net NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 2. www.nanomarkets.net Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment. The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companies and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms. Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permission of NanoMarkets, LC. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 3. www.nanomarkets.net Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1 E.1 The Future of Silver Inks and Pastes When Silver Prices are So High .............................. 1 Page | i E.2 Thick-Film Electronics: New Opportunities in this Old Market? ...................................... 3 E.3 Will the Nanosilver Ink Revolution Ever Happen? .......................................................... 3 E.4 The Solar Industry: Do No More Subsidies Mean No More Silver? ................................. 5 E.5 Displays and Lighting: What the Decline of Plasma Displays and the Rise of Flexible Displays and OLEDs Mean for Silver .................................................................................... 6 E.6 Winners and Losers in the Silver Inks and Pastes Market ............................................... 7 E.7 Will China Become a Major Player in Printed Silver? ..................................................... 9 E.8 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Silver Inks and Pastes ......................................... 10 Chapter One: An Introduction to This Report ........................................................................ 12 1.1 Ongoing Importance of Silver Inks and Pastes to Industrial Electronics Markets .......... 12 1.1.1 The Effect of the High Price of Silver on the Industrial Inks and Pastes Market .......................................12 1.1.2 Where is the Growth for Silver Inks? .........................................................................................................13 1.1.3 Prospects for Silver Inks and Pastes in Photovoltaic Panels ......................................................................15 1.1.4 Up-and-Coming Materials–Hybrids, Nanosilver and Silver Substitutes .....................................................16 1.2 Objectives and Scope of This Report ........................................................................... 18 1.3 Methodology.............................................................................................................. 18 1.4 Plan of This Report ..................................................................................................... 19 Chapter Two: Silver Inks and Paste Materials ....................................................................... 21 2.1 Developments Since Our Last Report .......................................................................... 21 2.1.1 The Impact of Continuing High (and Volatile) Silver Prices ........................................................................21 2.1.2 New Products and New Companies ...........................................................................................................22 2.1.3 New Regulations on Nanosilver: Impact on Silver Inks and Pastes ............................................................23 2.2 The Growing Competitive Challenges to Silver from Other Materials ........................... 26 2.1.1 Copper Solutions ........................................................................................................................................27 2.2.2 Carbon-Based Inks and Pastes ...................................................................................................................27 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 4. www.nanomarkets.net 2.2.3 Nanotubes, Conductive Polymers, and Other Emerging Threats ..............................................................28 2.3 Is the Nanosilver Inks Revolution Postponed, or Will It Never Happen? ....................... 29 2.3.1 What the Nanosilver Ink Firms Say They are Doing Now ...........................................................................29 2.3.2 Nanosilver Inks and the Future of Jetted Electronics ................................................................................31 2.4 Key Points from This Chapter ...................................................................................... 33 Page | ii Chapter Three: Applications for Silver Inks and Pastes .......................................................... 36 3.1 Are There Emerging Niche Applications in Traditional Thick-Film Electronics? ............. 36 3.1.1 Printed Circuit Boards ................................................................................................................................37 3.1.2 Membrane Switches ..................................................................................................................................37 3.1.3 Resistive Heaters ........................................................................................................................................38 3.1.4 Capacitors and Other Discrete Components .............................................................................................39 3.2 Solar Panels................................................................................................................ 40 3.2.1 Reduced Government Subsidies for Solar: Should the Silver Inks and Pastes Firms Worry? ...................41 3.2.2 What to Expect from the Crystalline Silicon PV Sector ..............................................................................42 3.2.3 New Opportunities for Printed Silver in TFPV ............................................................................................46 3.2.4 Will New Forms of PV—OPV and DSC—Need Printed Silver in the Future? .............................................49 3.3 Displays, Lighting, and Silver ....................................................................................... 50 3.3.1 Prospects for Silver Inks and Pastes in LCDs ..............................................................................................50 3.3.2 Plasma Displays: A Big Silver User, But Until When? .................................................................................50 3.3.3 The Rise of OLED Displays and Lighting: Are There Opportunities for Silver Inks and Pastes?..................51 3.3.4 Electrophoretic Displays: How Might They Use Silver Inks and Pastes? ....................................................52 3.4 RFIDs and Printed Silver .............................................................................................. 53 3.4.1 Is Printed Silver in RFIDs an Opportunity Whose Time has Passed? ..........................................................53 3.4.2 Nanosilver in RFID Antennas ......................................................................................................................54 3.5 Sensors ...................................................................................................................... 55 3.5.1 Printed Silver and the Biosensors and Medical Diagnostics Markets ........................................................56 3.5.2 Silver in the Motion and Security Sensors Market .....................................................................................57 3.5.3 Sensors and Nanosilver Inks ......................................................................................................................58 3.6 Key Points from this Chapter ...................................................................................... 58 Chapter Four: Recent Developments in the Supplier Industry Structure for Silver Inks and Pastes and their Implications ............................................................................................... 61 4.1 An Overview of the Supplier Base ............................................................................... 61 4.1.1 New and Notable Start-Ups? .....................................................................................................................61 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 5. www.nanomarkets.net 4.1.2 China’s Goal to Become a High-Tech Powerhouse and the Impact on the Silver Inks and Pastes Markets ............................................................................................................................................................................62 4.2Analysis of the Latest Product and Marketing Strategies by Leading and Influential Suppliers .......................................................................................................................... 64 4.2.1 Advanced Nano Products ...........................................................................................................................66 Page | iii 4.2.2 Cima NanoTech ..........................................................................................................................................69 4.3.3 Creative Materials ......................................................................................................................................70 4.3.4 Sun Chemical Group (U.S.)/DIC Global (Japan) ..........................................................................................72 4.3.5 DuPont (U.S.)..............................................................................................................................................74 4.3.6 Ferro Corporation (U.S.) .............................................................................................................................76 4.3.7 Harima Chemical (Japan) ...........................................................................................................................80 4.3.8 Henkel Electronics (Germany)....................................................................................................................81 4.3.9 Heraeus (Germany) ....................................................................................................................................84 4.3.10 InkTec (Korea) ..........................................................................................................................................86 4.3.11 Methode Electronics (U.S.) ......................................................................................................................87 Chapter Five: Eight-Year Forecasts for Silver Inks and Pastes ................................................ 90 5.1 Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions ................................................................ 90 5.1.1 Changes in Assumptions and Methodology Since the Last Report ............................................................92 5.1.2 Pricing of Silver Inks and Pastes .................................................................................................................93 5.2 Forecasts by Application ............................................................................................. 95 5.2.1 Photovoltaics .............................................................................................................................................95 5.2.2 Plasma Displays ........................................................................................................................................103 5.2.3 OLED Lighting ...........................................................................................................................................106 5.2.3 RFIDs and Sensors ....................................................................................................................................109 5.2.4 Traditional Thick-Film Applications ..........................................................................................................116 5.3 Forecasts by Material ............................................................................................... 120 5.3.1 Silver Screen-Printing Pastes – Conventional vs. Nanosilver ...................................................................120 5.3.2 Silver Ink-Jet Inks in Electronics – Conventional vs. Nanosilver ...............................................................124 5.3.3 Silver Inks: Gravure, Flexographic, and Other .........................................................................................127 5.4 Summary of Silver Inks and Pastes Markets .............................................................. 130 5.5 Alternative Scenarios................................................................................................ 134 Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report ........................................................... 136 About the Author ........................................................................................................... 137 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 6. www.nanomarkets.net List of Exhibits Exhibit E-1 GRAND TOTALS - Summary Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Printing Inks and Pastes .................................10 Exhibit 4-1 Overview of Product Portfolios of Selected Silver Ink and Paste Suppliers ..............................................64 Page | iv Exhibit 4-2 ANP Nanosilver Pastes ...............................................................................................................................67 Exhibit 4-3 ANP Nanosilver Inkjet Inks ........................................................................................................................67 Exhibit 4-4 Creative Materials: Silver Ink Product Range ...........................................................................................71 Exhibit 4-5 Selected Sun Chemical Silver Ink and Paste Products ..............................................................................73 Exhibit 4-6 Selected Silver-Only Screen Printing Paste Products in the Ferro Portfolio ..............................................77 Exhibit 4-7 Selected Silver And Nanosilver Printing Products From Harima ...............................................................81 Exhibit 4-8 Henkel Electronics: Selected Acheson Silver Inks and Pastes ..................................................................82 Exhibit 4-9 Overview of Selected Silver Pastes from Heraeus for Thick Film Electronics Applications .......................84 Exhibit 4-10 Overview of Selected Silver Pastes for PV Applications from Heraeus ...................................................85 Exhibit 4-11 InkTec Silver and Nanosilver Printing Inks and Pastes ............................................................................86 Exhibit 4-12 Selected Methode Silver Conductive Paste and Ink Products .................................................................88 Exhibit 5-1 Pricing of Silver and Silver Inks/Pastes 2012-2019 ....................................................................................94 Exhibit 5-2 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) PV ............................................96 Exhibit 5-3 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes for TFPV (all types), DSC, and OPV....................................99 Exhibit 5-4 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in PV Applications by Printing Method ...........................101 Exhibit 5-5 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in Plasma Display Panels (PDPs) .....................................104 Exhibit 5-6 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in OLED Lighting Applications .........................................107 Exhibit 5-7 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes in RFIDs (Antennas and Chips) ........................................110 Exhibit 5-8 Eight Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes for Sensor Applications ...................................................114 Exhibit 5-9 Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes for Traditional Thick-Film Applications ...........................117 Exhibit 5-10 Eight-Year Forecasts of Conventional Silver and Nanosilver Screen Printing Pastes by Application ....121 Exhibit 5-11 Eight-Year Forecasts of Conventional Silver and Nanosilver Inkjet Printing Inks by Application ..........124 Exhibit 5-12 Eight-Year Forecasts of Conventional Silver and Nanosilver Flexographic, Gravure, and Other Printing Inks by Application ...........................................................................................................................................128 Exhibit 5-13 GRAND TOTALS - Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Printing Inks and Pastes .........................131 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 7. www.nanomarkets.net Executive Summary E.1 The Future of Silver Inks and Pastes When Silver Prices are So High NanoMarkets estimates that the total market for silver inks and pastes will grow to a value of Page | 1 about $7.6 billion in 2012, but that it will contract over the forecast period to about $6.8 billion by 2018. Several factors are behind our prediction that the value of the silver inks and pastes market will drop:  Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the silver inks and pastes industry is the persistent environment of relentlessly high silver prices—well over $30 per troy ounce, with no relief in sight. And given the increasing popularity of silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) combined with global economic unease, we do not expect that prices will come down any time soon. In this environment, manufacturers of silver inks and pastes are faced with a new paradigm for their cost basis, which means new business strategies are needed.  The photovoltaics (PV) market, which saw a big increase in both global PV cell production and in consumption of silver inks and pastes in the last couple of years, will not grow at the same pace going forward. Instead, growth rates for PV, while still good, seem certain to decline, in no small part due to a decrease in governments’ support for PV installations. And to make matters worse, more and more PV is going to thin-film which does not use nearly as much silver as the traditional crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV that dominates the market today. Our forecasts suggest that as early as 2013, the value of silver inks and pastes consumed by the PV sector will start to decline.  Plasma display panels, historically large consumers of silver printing pastes, are in long- term decline in the face of serious competition from liquid crystal displays (LCDs).  While traditional silver users—membrane switches, printed circuit boards, capacitors, etc.—will still be major silver users, it is also clear that they will be in need of finding more profitable markets and products. This indicates a strong trend towards higher value-added inks that target specific niches. These new inks will take some time to develop, and will probably not immediately offset lost revenues from substitutes or soft demand.  Customers across the applications spectrum will be looking very hard for ways to reduce silver usage—or replace it altogether—wherever they can, even if the opportunities to NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 8. www.nanomarkets.net do so are limited. In this environment, silver ink and paste manufacturers will need to work equally hard to maintain their market share, and they will need to offer new products that convincingly mitigate rising silver costs. Historically, alternatives to silver inks and pastes have always done well when silver prices spiked, but they have also always disappeared when silver prices settled down again. But since today’s high silver Page | 2 prices look as if they are here to stay for a while, the situation may be different, and manufacturers of alternatives may face a much more stable market for their products. There is, however, some good news that might soften the negative impact of the high silver prices. Silver is simply too conductive, too compatible with printing, and too entrenched in too many applications for lower-cost/lower-performance alternatives to make a very large dent. Specifically:  The high price of silver is a longstanding unpleasant fact for the electronics industry, perhaps more so at today’s prices, but still not catastrophic to sellers of silver materials. Silver’s unique conductivity characteristics make it very difficult to find alternatives, so higher precious metal costs, in most cases, are simply passed along to the customers.  A number of interesting applications are just emerging that may turn out to be the next big “waves” that the silver inks and pastes industry can ride the way it has ridden PV for the last five years. They include, for example, flexible displays and lighting based on organic light emitting diodes (OLED), both of which could turn out to eventually be large consumers of printed silver circuitry. The sensors market is also very promising, both in the (bio)medical sensors area and in everyday, ubiquitous consumer electronics applications that seek to create a world of pervasive computing.  More good news is that despite ongoing worldwide economic sluggishness, increased industrialization and urbanization of the developing world should increase the per capita expenditures on the kinds of products in which silver inks and pastes are used. And, of course, silver inks and pastes are now used in so many consumer products that the increase in the world population is itself a spur to demand for silver inks and pastes. In summary, high silver prices lead electronics manufacturers—the consumers of silver inks and pastes—to seek to create greater added value in their products, in the hope of gaining better margins, or at least preserving their margins. This means that there is clearly room for innovation in the silver ink and paste industry. New silver ink and paste formulations are needed, and the needs of the electronics industry are producing a fertile field for silver ink and paste product development. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 9. www.nanomarkets.net E.2 Thick-Film Electronics: New Opportunities in this Old Market? Traditional thick-film electronics, which comprises a vast number of printed circuit board applications as well as printed membrane switches and the like, has traditionally been one of the largest users of conventional silver inks and pastes (mostly pastes). We expect it—absent a serious worldwide financial crisis—to remain a relatively stable high-volume market with a few Page | 3 genuine opportunities for silver suppliers:  With so many mature processes in place and so much accumulated manufacturing experience in the thick-film sector, it will be especially hard for firms to eliminate silver inks and pastes altogether, unless very close substitutes can be found. And very close substitutes are, as previously noted, hard to find. Furthermore, replacing printed silver with some entirely different process—such as etched copper or another subtractive process—would be hard to achieve in many production lines. New production may consider using alternatives, but existing production lines are unlikely to install completely new equipment.  There may be some substitution of traditional thick film pastes with other silver-based products, like silver or nanosilver inks. This shift will be driven by the trend toward miniaturization of consumer electronics and the need for finer lines and higher resolution of conductive traces. Here again is an opportunity of sorts for the silver inks and pastes suppliers. Innovative suppliers that can provide new inks or pastes that address specific needs of customers, with either conventionally sized silver or nanosilver, can eke out gains in market share. In fact, suppliers of silver inks and pastes cannot afford to ignore the thick-film sector, simply because it is so large. Getting into (or more deeply into) this market with new products will not be easy, though. It is, after all, highly mature. In this market, customers will continue to balance the risks of switching to a new material against attempting to ride out the high silver commodity prices while sticking with conventional silver pastes. For materials suppliers of all kinds in this sector, the business development struggle for the next few years will center on these switching economics issues and arguments that either turn customers to a new material or calm their concerns about the high price of silver. E.3 Will the Nanosilver Ink Revolution Ever Happen? Will nanosilver ever become a major factor in the printed circuitry market? It has long been touted as having a big future in (currently nonexistent) novel “printed electronics” applications, but this has yet to be proven. The market pull for printed electronics has just never materialized NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 10. www.nanomarkets.net in a meaningful way. Nanosilver ink makers have had a hard time of it as they have chased after new markets that do not really exist yet. Printable nanosilver makers claim other seemingly compelling advantages over conventional silver inks and pastes, too. These include lower temperature processing and less usage of Page | 4 precious silver. But nanosilver-based inks and pastes have been around for nearly a decade now, and they have yet to take off in the conventional printed silver markets. What is behind the lack of progress?  The notion that nanosilver can accomplish what conventional silver can but at much lower loading, thereby reducing costs substantially, has come into serious question. Savings from using less silver are still largely eaten up by the higher cost of the nanosilver itself, let alone the changes in design and equipment that are needed to use it. This remains at least partially true despite high silver prices that should have led to a bigger narrowing of the cost-in-use gap between conventional silver and nanosilver.  Economic uncertainty leads to risk aversion and causes device manufacturers to stick with the conventional silver materials with which they are already comfortable.  The outlook for printed nanosilver is complicated by a murky regulatory environment for silver specifically and nanomaterials in general These factors have led NanoMarkets to reduce our expectations for nanosilver over the next decade. We are feeling decidedly less optimistic about nanosilver’s future than we were a couple of years ago, and have reduced growth rates considerably. We are now estimating that the printed nanosilver market will grow from its very small base today of about $85 million to only about $145 million by 2019. We hope we are wrong, but we have no reason to be more bullish about nanosilver at this point. In the midst of this pessimism, there is at least some good news:  High silver commodity prices will—at the margin—encourage more customers to evaluate moving to higher-performance nanosilver. High silver commodity prices have narrowed the cost-in-use gap between nanosilver and silver in a meaningful way, even though more can be done.  Today a large fraction of nanosilver ink costs is still tied up in processing, scale-up, and production but these costs should decline as the material matures. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 11. www.nanomarkets.net  There is growth in high-resolution printing inks, especially inkjet nanosilver inks, and especially in sensors for emerging printed electronics, where traditional silver pastes are generally not suitable. High-resolution printing is tailor-made for nanosilver, and these new applications may be able to support nanosilver’s higher price, at least for a few more years. Page | 5 In this new market, nanosilver inks (and nanosilver pastes) may finally have a chance to grow beyond niche status, although probably not into a big business. After years of watching not much happen in the nanosilver inks business NanoMarkets now believes that only modest growth will come from this segment until some clear advantage of application emerges in the marketplace. E.4 The Solar Industry: Do No More Subsidies Mean No More Silver? The answer to this question is, of course, “no.” Printed silver in the PV market is here to stay, but silver ink and paste firms should worry. The solar panel industry was for several years one of the fastest growing sectors for printed silver, primarily because crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar panels use large quantities of silver paste to create both electrodes and tabbing strips. However, a lot is happening to discourage manufacturers of silver inks and pastes in this sector:  Silver pastes for back electrodes and for tabbing pastes in c-Si PV are seeing increased competition from lower-cost substitutes, like aluminum for back electrodes/reflectors, and non-silver soldering pastes in tabbing applications.  The newer thin-film PV technologies—especially CdTe PV—are taking an ever greater share of the solar panel industry and are less likely to use silver for electrodes.  The badly depressed construction industry in much of the world has reduced the size of many major addressable markets for solar panels, and although 2010 was a banner year for PV production despite the global recession, growth rates are not expected to stay at 2010 levels. In addition, a lot of the PV production occurred in China, and some PV industry observers believe that China is sitting on a large, unsold inventory of panels that will take some time to work off. And most importantly, governmental support in the form of consumer subsidies and loan guarantees are under considerable challenge around the world, as governments look for ways to rein in spending. The opportunities available to suppliers of materials to the PV sector are thus highly dependent on policy consideration rather than economics. This could have very NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 12. www.nanomarkets.net serious consequences for silver ink and paste firms that rely on PV for a large portion of their revenue, and should be judged as a significant risk factor. Although we expect that silver ink and paste suppliers will not have it especially easy in the near future, there are some signs of hope: Page | 6  The end of subsidies, although certainly chilling in the near-term, could be good news in the longer term since it encourages market-oriented PV technologies to compete.  Silver inks and pastes used in crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV electrode fabrication make up the largest share of the PV market. We expect this sector to retain a strong position in the solar panel market, especially in front electrodes where there are few suitable alternatives.  Silver ink manufacturers have developed silver ink products specifically for TFPV that help to address TFPV-specific challenges. Next-generation PV technologies, not yet out of the lab, may use more silver. In summary, PV of all kinds is very sensitive to materials costs, especially in the current era of rapidly declining solar panel costs and reduced government incentives. Therefore, innovations to reduce the cost of the printed silver electrodes will be welcomed by the marketplace in the next few years. These innovations might include not only ways of making silver more effective as a conductor—such as through the use of nanosilver inks—but also through ways of using less silver in conventional inks and pastes. E.5 Displays and Lighting: What the Decline of Plasma Displays and the Rise of Flexible Displays and OLEDs Mean for Silver The market for silver inks and pastes in one important sector—plasma display panels (PDPs)—is almost certainly in a period of slow and steady decline. We do not anticipate that this market will completely disappear, but it is facing serious challenges. The latest LCDs rival the performance of PDPs in almost every characteristic important to the consumer, and this means that PDPs are now competing primarily on price. This situation robs the silver ink and paste industry of a major consumer of printed silver. Suppliers of silver inks and pastes will need to find alternative markets in which to sell their products or face declining volumes. The good news is that we think there are sizeable, emerging opportunities that will offer a way out. The bad news, however, is that these emerging applications are not yet mature and are, in fact, probably at least several years out. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 13. www.nanomarkets.net It is too early to say with much certainty what opportunities will ultimately succeed in this segment, but some possibilities are as follows: Flexible displays have been talked about for many years, but now seem to be on the verge of commercialization (thanks largely to Samsung). Commercialization of flexible displays implies Page | 7 the arrival of flexible backplanes—a huge challenge. Such backplanes will require flexible interconnects that could be provided with silver traces of some kind. Flexible displays are unlikely to appear on the market until 2012 or 2013, and no one can be sure if consumers will like them. But if (say) they were to attract an iPad-like following, they might represent a significant opportunity for silver inks going forward. Another and, we think, even more promising future opportunity is the OLED lighting market. OLED lighting is poised for very rapid growth, especially after 2015, which is when it is anticipated that OLED lighting’s technical performance will be sufficient to meet market needs. Currently, OLED lighting does not employ printed silver, but silver ink and paste suppliers should make the case now to OLED panel manufacturers that printed silver grids can enable the market to meet its full potential:  Printed silver could be used beneficially in bus bars or grids to prevent visible brightness gradients and resistive heat losses caused by significant voltage drops across long spans of (less) conductive transparent electrodes, and  Printed silver could be useful for interconnects for concatenated OLED lighting panels. If OLED lighting ultimately attracts consumer attention, it could be another mass-market silver ink and paste consumer. A good sign is that OLED lighting is attracting the attention of an impressive list of electronics and lighting companies, some of whom are building pilot plants to build OLED lighting panels. E.6 Winners and Losers in the Silver Inks and Pastes Market The winners in the silver inks and pastes market over the next eight years will be defined by those companies that understand the new environment and figure out how to reorganize their product lines to adjust to the new market realities. The losers, of course, will be those firms that fail to understand the new paradigm. Some firms to watch are as follows:  Heraeus has emerged in the past two years as a major force in the PV pastes business and claims to supply most of the top PV panel makers. The firm appears to have entered the market at exactly the right time, when PV was booming, and it managed to quickly develop and commercialize PV pastes that reduced silver usage and lowered NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 14. www.nanomarkets.net manufacturing costs. But how long can this last? As noted, the PV sector is in for a bumpy road in the next several years, and it is not clear to us how Heraeus will handle it, having few other outlets for its silver pastes. In all likelihood, the firm will do better than many other PV paste companies; its recent market successes signal to us that it will remain a preferred supplier and should be able to hold onto a significant market share. Page | 8 But there is caveat: the story at Heraeus may be quite different if DuPont’s legal challenge to Heraeus’ IP is successful.  Henkel is another interesting firm. It is already a giant in the silver inks and pastes business, and interestingly, it has not focused heavily on the PV sector for new developments. This move may have been less strategy than necessity—Henkel is more adept at developing lower temperature curing inks and pastes than the high-fire products used by (most of) the PV industry—but it may turn out to be a benefit. If the PV sector falters even more than expected, Henkel’s volumes should be largely unaffected. And it already well entrenched in the thick film and other silver ink/paste markets.  The prospects at DuPont are mixed. On one hand, DuPont’s PDP paste business is going to decline. In addition, it is facing serious competition in inks and pastes for the PV sector from Heraeus and the large number of Chinese silver paste firms. Fortunately for DuPont, there is much else that the company has going for it that will soften the impact of this dual blow. It has a large legacy business in high-fire silver inks for electronics in which there are few suitable alternatives. It is also in a good position to hold onto market share wherever it can by relying on its status as a major global materials supplier with production, marketing, and logistics infrastructure throughout the world.  Unless we are wrong about the future of the PV market, far too many firms in China are focused on inks and pastes specifically for PV. If the market share of c-Si PV loses ground, as is expected over the next decade, to alternative PV technologies that use much less silver, then what will these firms do? We do not think all of them will survive.  There are also too many nanosilver firms to support the size of the nanosilver inks and pastes market. Larger materials firms that have nanosilver programs but that do not rely on nanosilver for revenue, such as Bayer MaterialScience and Methode, can simply shut down their programs. But smaller technology start-ups, whose business is significantly focused on printable nanosilver, like NanoMas, will face real problems. The market has simply not developed as expected, and there is only so long one can survive with balance sheets in the red. Unless some of the smaller firms can convincingly shift NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 15. www.nanomarkets.net toward other technologies, as Cima Nanotech is doing with transparent conductors, for example, we do not think all the nanosilver ink firms can survive the next decade. One potential exception is PChem Associates, which is betting on high-speed nanosilver printing inks (not ink-jet) and which are claimed to deliver cost-in-use savings of 75 percent compared to conventional silver inks. Page | 9 E.7 Will China Become a Major Player in Printed Silver? As spelled out in its latest “Five-Year Plan,” China is making a concerted effort to shift its economy from one based on exports to one driven by domestic demand from the Chinese middle class. China recognizes that it is simply not possible to grow its real per capita income at recent historic rates using its current low-cost manufacturing strategy; instead, it now needs to internally capture more of the added value of the products it produces. Part of the Chinese strategy involves investment in areas directly related to printed silver: alternative energy (PV), displays, and the required enabling materials for these application areas. Currently, the Chinese ink/paste suppliers have limited activities outside of the region, but we do not expect the situation to remain static:  Small Chinese firms have been producing generic silver pastes and inks for quite a long time with the apparent goal of selling these materials at low prices to the R&D community in relatively small quantities for applications that do not need high performances.  Going forward, any success the country has in spurring domestic demand only accelerates the potential for growth in silver inks and pastes.  Under the new policy, we expect that Chinese firms will ramp up to a point where they are competitive with American, Japanese, Korean and European materials firms. This implies both increasing quality and performance of products and developing new advanced materials. While increased competition from Chinese suppliers in the near term may be troubling to Western suppliers of printable silver materials, in the long run, we believe the shift described above will be beneficial to the market overall. A more successful China—and especially a larger, wealthier customer base for the electronics products produced in high-tech manufacturing— will increase the size of the addressable market for silver inks and paste suppliers worldwide and—absent import controls—should help to grow the market for inks and paste suppliers around the world. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 16. www.nanomarkets.net Global suppliers with the right materials and right supply partnerships in China can prosper if China’s strategy is successful. Specifically, the big silver ink and paste firms that already have a strong presence in Asia—DuPont, Henkel, Heraeus, and so forth—will have an easier time capitalizing on increased domestic demand in China than smaller firms. Page | 10 E.8 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for Silver Inks and Pastes A summary of NanoMarkets’ eight-year forecasts for silver inks and pastes is shown in Exhibit E- 1. Exhibit E-1 GRAND TOTALS - Summary Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Printing Inks and Pastes ($ Millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 By Application: Photovoltaics PDPs OLED Lighting RFIDs Sensors Traditional Thick Film GRAND TOTAL By Ink Composition: Conventional Silver Inks and Pastes Nanosilver Inks and Pastes GRAND TOTAL By Printing Method: Screen Pastes Ink-Jet Inks Flexo/Gravure/Other Inks GRAND TOTAL © NanoMarkets 2011 Note: Rounding may cause minor discrepancies in last digit of totals. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 17. www.nanomarkets.net Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Silver Inks and Pastes by Application ($ Millions) 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 Page | 11 Traditional Thick Film 6000.0 5000.0 Sensors 4000.0 RFIDs 3000.0 OLED Lighting 2000.0 1000.0 PDPs 0.0 Photovoltaics 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year © NanoMarkets, LC Total Value of Silver Inks and Pastes Market ($ Millions) 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0 6600.0 6400.0 6200.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year © NanoMarkets, LC To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets at sales@nanomarket.net or via telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us at www.nanomarkets.net. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 18. www.nanomarkets.net Chapter One: An Introduction to This Report 1.1 Ongoing Importance of Silver Inks and Pastes to Industrial Electronics Markets 1.1.1 The Effect of the High Price of Silver on the Industrial Inks and Page | 12 Pastes Market Silver has always been an expensive metal and probably always will be. But the most obvious change in the silver inks/pastes market since our last report is the seemingly persistent high price of silver, with no relief in sight. Silver commodity prices have been pushed upward because of the uncertain global economic environment in which investors have shifted increasingly toward “hard” assets. Silver ETFs have accumulated large stores of silver in order to handle the increased demand for precious metal investments. At the time of writing, silver prices have somewhat stabilized, but they have done so at a level nearly twice that of just two years ago (in inflation-adjusted dollars). And there are no good reasons that the situation will change very much over the next five years or so. None of this is especially good news for the silver inks and pastes business, since the price of these materials is largely determined by the price of silver and these materials are often sold into moderately price sensitive environments. Despite these negatives, however, there are some reasons for executives in the silver inks and pastes business not to feel too depressed:  The high price of silver is now a fact of life for the electronics industry. On the one hand, its unique conductivity characteristics ensure that silver is hard to dispense with in many applications.  Where silver inks and pastes can be dispensed with their high price will enable supplier firms to develop silver inks and pastes substitutes with an assurance that the market for them will persist. In the past, silver ink/paste substitutes have appeared and then disappeared when the price of silver fell again. Given the current economic climate, it seems that the manufacturers of silver ink/paste substitutes are in for the long haul this time around.  Counteracting ongoing worldwide economic sluggishness will be increased industrialization and urbanization of the developing world; which is likely to increase the per capita expenditures on the kinds of products in which silver inks and pastes are used. And, of course, silver inks and pastes are now used in so many consumer products that the increase in the world population is itself a spur to demand for silver inks and pastes. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 19. www.nanomarkets.net  There are a number of interesting applications for silver inks and pastes that are just emerging. They include, for example, OLED lighting, and sensors. NanoMarkets believes that there are real opportunities here, but we also caution that some traditional applications that use quite a lot of silver paste at the present time are likely to experience at best modest growth, and this could hurt the silver inks and pastes Page | 13 business in the next few years. Examples here are plasma TVs (in long-term decline) and crystalline silicon solar panels (a market likely to see a decline in government support). 1.1.2 Where is the Growth for Silver Inks? Despite high silver prices (indeed, partially because of them), NanoMarkets expects that revenues from silver inks and pastes will remain substantial in a number of applications. Traditional thick-film electronics: Thick-film electronics, which comprises a vast number of printed circuit board applications as well as printed membrane switches and the like, has traditionally been the largest user of conventional silver inks and pastes (mostly pastes), and we expect it—absent a serious worldwide financial crisis—to remain a relatively stable high-volume market with even a few genuine opportunities appearing from time to time:  We think that with so many mature processes in place and so much accumulated manufacturing experience in the thick-film sector, it is going to be very hard for firms to get rid of silver pastes and inks in a wholesale manner, unless very close substitutes can be found. As to replacing printed silver with some entirely different process, this would also be hard to achieve. “Printed silver” provides not only higher resolution and fewer process steps than subtractive processes such as etched copper, but also the option of applying conductive traces at different times.  Substitution of traditional thick film pastes with silver inks, including potentially nanosilver inks, in this segment will be driven by the trend toward miniaturization of consumer electronics and the need for finer lines and higher resolution of conductive traces. Here, again, is an opportunity of sorts for the silver inks and pastes business.  Even without high volume growth—and with some negative growth in certain sub- sectors like membrane switches—increases in silver prices will drive substantial revenue growth. An open question for suppliers of inks and pastes is how they are going to capture some of the new value encapsulated in silver metal. Suppliers of silver inks and pastes (except maybe, boutique suppliers of nanosilver products) cannot afford to ignore the thick-film sector, simply because it is so large; traditional thick-film NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 20. www.nanomarkets.net paste sales will still make up nearly half of the total silver inks and pastes market for the foreseeable and thus present significant opportunities. Still, we think that silver paste suppliers should not expect too much from this sector. It is, after all, highly mature. In this market, customers for inks and pastes will continue to balance the risks of switching to a new material against attempting to ride out the high silver commodity prices while sticking with conventional Page | 14 silver pastes. For materials suppliers of all kinds in this sector, the business development struggle for the next few years is going to center around these switching economics issues and arguments that either turn customers to a new material or calm their concerns about the high price of silver. Displays, OLEDs, and solid-state lighting (SSL): Silver inks and pastes are used to create electrodes and interconnects in a broad array of displays and lighting products:  Here the good news for the silver inks and pastes business is that new types of technologies are apparently coming to market quite quickly in this sector and could emerge as sizeable markets for silver inks and pastes over the next five years.  The bad news is that one sector—plasma displays (PDPs)—that has been a large user of silver in the past seems to be in slow and steady decline. We think it will be hard for the newer applications that fall into this segment to offset the declining demand from PDPs for quite a few years; these newer applications aren’t mature enough yet. It is too early to say with much certainty what opportunities will appear in this segment. But there are a couple of such opportunities that seem to be looming:  Flexible displays have been talked about for many years, but now seem to be at the cusp of commercialization (thanks largely to Samsung). This implies the arrival of flexible backplanes; a huge challenge. Such backplanes would seem to require flexible interconnects that could be provided with silver traces of some kind. Flexible displays are unlikely to appear on the market until 2012 and nobody can be really sure if consumers will like them. But if (say) they were to attract an iPad-like following they might represent a significant opportunity for silver inks going forward.  The OLED lighting market seems poised for very rapid growth, especially after 2015 when it is anticipated that the technical performance of this kind of lighting will be sufficient to meet market needs. In addition, the demise of the historically dominant incandescent bulb is creating a market opening in the general lighting market, which may partially filled by OLED lighting panels. OLED lighting may employ printed silver, NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 21. www.nanomarkets.net mainly in the form of (1) bus bars, to prevent visible brightness gradients due to the significant voltage drops and resistive heat losses across long spans of (less) conductive transparent electrodes and (2) interconnects for concatenated OLED lighting panels. If OLED lighting ultimately attracts consumer attention this could be another mass market silver ink user. A good sign is that OLED lighting is attracting the attention of an Page | 15 impressive list of electronics and lighting companies, some of whom are constructing pilot plants to build OLED lighting panels. Silver inks: The long-term trajectory of such products and markets is still very uncertain, but it is quite possible, as we have already noted, that they will end up using plenty of silver. In particular, we see the thin silver traces that OLED lighting and flexible displays might need as an opportunity for nanosilver inks. One reason for this is that historically nanosilver inks were developed specifically with these applications in mind. (This was the area that Cabot actively pursued when this company heavily marketed its silver inks for printed electronics a few years back.) It seems to be the applications not the inks that failed to emerge. If some of the applications listed and hinted at above, take off, then a variety of opportunities open up for ink makers, including inks that are designed to work specifically with inkjet, gravure, flexographic, etc. Unfortunately, this is not exactly news. There are quite a few firms that have emerged in the past five to seven years with ambitions to supply novel silver inks fine-tuned to emerging applications. For the most part they have not found the market very encouraging. Some of these firms have already gone out of business and OLED lighting, flexible displays and the like might turn out to be their last best opportunity. 1.1.3 Prospects for Silver Inks and Pastes in Photovoltaic Panels The solar panel industry was, for several years, one of the fastest growing sectors for printed silver; primarily because crystalline silicon solar panels use silver paste to create the front electrode. However, in the past few years a lot has happened to discourage manufacturers of silver inks and pastes in this sector:  The newer thin-film PV technologies that are taking an ever greater share of the solar panel industry are less likely to use silver for electrodes;  The badly depressed construction industry in much of the world has reduced many major addressable markets for solar panels generally;  Governmental support in the form of consumer subsidies and loan guarantees is under considerable challenge around the world as governments look for areas to cut back on. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 22. www.nanomarkets.net This could have very serious consequences for firms selling materials into the PV sector. When Spain ended PV subsidies, the market in Spain lost 90 percent of its value. All of this suggests that the opportunities available for suppliers of silver and silver products into the PV space are highly dependent on policy consideration, which should be judged a significant Page | 16 risk factor in view of the current worldwide financial problems. It also suggests that silver inks and pastes firms are not going to have it especially easy in the near future. There are some signs of hope though:  The end of subsidies could be good news in the long run since it encourages market oriented PV technologies (although the near-term effects are certainly chilling).  Silver inks and pastes used in crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV electrode fabrication make up the largest share of the PV market. We expect this sector to retain a strong position in the solar panel market, but expect growth rates in this sector to cool significantly.  Silver ink manufacturers have developed silver ink products specifically for TFPV that help to address TFPV-specific challenges. It is also possible that next-generation PV technologies, not out the lab, may use silver. PV of all kinds is very sensitive to materials costs, especially in the current era of collapsing solar panel prices. Therefore innovations to reduce the cost of the printed silver electrodes are going to be welcomed by the marketplace in the next few years. These innovations might include not only ways of making silver more effective as a conductor—such as through the use of nanosilver inks—but also through ways of using less silver in conventional inks and pastes. 1.1.4 Up-and-Coming Materials–Hybrids, Nanosilver and Silver Substitutes Inexpensive alternatives: Hybrid inks and pastes—combining silver and carbon or silver and copper, for instance—can offer modest savings when a high level of performance is not critical. In the paste sector materials of this kind have been available for decades. This kind of material generally disappears from the market as soon as silver prices start to come down. But, as we explained earlier, this is precisely what seems unlikely to happen in the near term. As a result, as we also mentioned earlier, it seems likely that there may be more of an opportunity for these inexpensive alternatives than in the past. Printed nanosilver: A more strategic alternative to conventional silver inks and pastes is nanosilver. As we have mentioned, this may have a future in printed electronics, but this has NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 23. www.nanomarkets.net yet to be proven and nanosilver ink makers have had a hard time of it as they have chased after new markets that don’t really exist yet. Printed nanosilver makers claim other advantages over more conventional materials, too. These include lower temperature processing and less usage/wastage of precious silver. These Page | 17 advantages would seem highly compelling. But nanosilver-based inks and pastes have been around for nearly a decade now, and they have yet to take off in the market. What is behind the lack of progress?  That nanosilver can accomplish what conventional silver can but at much lower loading, thereby reducing costs substantially—has come into serious question. Savings from using less silver are still largely eaten up by the higher cost of the nanosilver itself, let alone the changes in design and equipment that are needed to use it. This remains at least partially true despite the recent spike in silver prices that should have led to a bigger narrowing of the cost-in-use gap between conventional silver and nanosilver.  Economic uncertainty leads to risk aversion and causes device manufacturers to stick with the conventional silver materials with which they are already comfortable.  The outlook for printed nanosilver is complicated by a murky regulatory environment for silver specifically and nanomaterials. There is some good news:  High silver commodity prices over $30 per troy ounce are a relatively recent phenomenon that will—at the margin—encourage more customers to switch to higher- performance nanosilver. High silver commodity prices have narrowed the cost-in-use gap between nanosilver and silver in a meaningful way, even though more can be done.  Today, a large fraction of nanosilver ink costs is still tied up in processing, scale-up, and production costs, and these costs should decline further as the material matures.  There is growth in high-resolution printing inks, especially in emerging printed electronics, where traditional silver pastes are generally not suitable. High resolution printing is tailor-made for nanosilver, and these new applications may be able to support nanosilver’s higher price, at least for a few more years. In this new market, nanosilver inks (and nanosilver pastes) may finally have a chance to grow beyond niche status, although this is a long way from saying they are going to be big business. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 24. www.nanomarkets.net After years of watching not much happen in the nanosilver inks business NanoMarkets now believes that only modest growth will come from this segment until some clear advantage of application emerges in the marketplace. For the time being, nanosilver firms have done just about all they can do in terms of market development; they are going to have to wait until the silver ink users catch up! Page | 18 1.2 Objectives and Scope of This Report The primary objective of this report is to identify and quantify the opportunities for silver inks and pastes. NanoMarkets has been covering the electronics markets for silver for over five years, and is widely regarded as the premier supplier of industry information in this segment. With this in mind, the goal of this report is to adjust and expand our previous forecasts and strategic analysis with the constantly changing markets for these materials in mind. In addition, as part of this analysis, we critically examine the strategies of the key players in the silver inks/pastes markets, and identify what we believe to be the trends indicating likely success (or not) at different firms. Finally, as always in NanoMarkets reports, we include eight- year market forecasts for silver inks and pastes by application and by material. The scope of the materials covered in this report is silver and nanosilver inks and pastes. We have excluded from coverage here transparent nanosilver inks (covered in other NanoMarkets reports and involving different players and markets than the materials covered here); printed antimicrobial silver (better covered as part of a broader consideration of antimicrobial silver), and silver-based conductive adhesives. The applications covered are the ones in which printed silver of various kinds is a major factor including the traditional thick-film electronics applications, solar panels, and next-generation printed electronics (especially displays). This report is international in scope. The forecasts are worldwide forecasts and we have not been geographically selective in the firms that we have covered in the report or interviewed in order to collect information. Where there are geographical factors at work—as is the case in the display sector—we discuss this more fully in the report. 1.3 Methodology The methodology for this report is explained in more detail in Chapter Five of this report which deals with forecasts. Here we note that in general the approach we take, broadly speaking, is to apply economic analysis to the information that NanoMarkets continues to collect on the silver inks and pastes market and other related sectors. NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 25. www.nanomarkets.net The information for this work is derived from a variety of sources, but principally comes from primary sources, including NanoMarkets' ongoing interview program of entrepreneurs, business development and marketing managers, and technologists involved with silver materials and emerging electronics of all kinds. We also drew on the technical literature, relevant company Web sites, trade journals, government resources, and various collateral items Page | 19 from trade shows and conferences. Some of the applications-related market information in this report comes from our most recent reports on the covered applications areas. Reports from which some data have been shared include: “Nanosilver Markets – 2011,” “Silver Powders and Flakes – 2011” and “Silver in Photovoltaics – 2010.” In addition, some of the historical information on silver and silver inks/pastes has been carried over from the last version of this report, "Silver Inks and Pastes 2011," from December 2010. Where information has been used in an earlier report, it has been reconsidered in light of current developments and updated accordingly. The forecasting approach used in this report is to identify and quantify the underlying applications markets, the materials needs that are or can be served by silver inks/pastes, and the technological and market pressures that affect ink/paste usage in those markets. The stated plans of the key firms are, of course, of special interest, although NanoMarkets critically considers these claims in light of all available data. 1.4 Plan of This Report In Chapter Two, we examine the silver inks and pastes that are used in the electronics industry; the strategies to reduce cost, increase performance, and customize materials to specific uses; and the materials that are used or likely to emerge as partial substitutes for silver in inks and pastes. In Chapter Three, we discuss the applications and markets for silver inks and pastes. We discuss printed silver in the traditional thick-film applications and identify opportunities that may still exist for suppliers to make money is this mature market. We also examine the other applications for silver inks and pastes in displays, solid-state lighting, photovoltaics, RFIDs and security printing, and sensors. We identify trends in these sub-sectors that will affect silver ink and paste suppliers’ abilities to sell into them, and we identify key areas that show promise for making money. In Chapter Four we discuss the profiles and strategies of the major suppliers of silver inks and pastes of various types, and Chapter Five contains our eight-year forecasts of silver inks and NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259
  • 26. www.nanomarkets.net pastes used in the electronics industry. These forecasts are presented by market segment and by type of silver ink/paste wherever possible. Page | 20 NanoMarkets, LC | PO Box 3840 | Glen Allen, VA 23058 | TEL: 804-360-2967| FAX: 804-360-7259