Finished in the top 5 teams, presented this slideshow to a panel of equity research analysts and associates, and fielded questions about Mobileye's capital structure, its share price's sensitivity to excitement in the media, and projections including a DCF analysis, comparables analysis, and multiple sensitivity analyses.
Was one of five teams to present in front of a panel of equity research analysts and associates. Pitched Mobileye (MBLY) stock as a buy with a 12 month price target of $70.00 with a 67% upside from its current share price. As of 9/9/2016, MBLY is up 31% since our pitch.
3. 3
Investment Thesis
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
Mobileye is a technological leader in the autonomous vehicle industry poised to capitalize on future
regulations and increasing demand for autonomous features.
❖ The United States Department of Transportation and IIHS recently announced a plan to
require automatic emergency braking systems on all new vehicles by 2022.
❖ Mobileye has a number of substantial OEM contracts with companies such as General
Motors, Mitsubishi, Honda, Nissan, and is set to take advantage of the increase in demand for
autonomous features.
❖ Mobileye has created a competitive advantage due to being first to market at supplying
effective and proprietary vision based ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems).
We recommend Mobileye (NYSE:MBLY) as a Buy with a 12 month price target of $70.00, a 67%
upside from the current share price.
4. 4
Company Overview
Company Description
❖ Mobileye N.V. provides image sensing and processing
technology for automotive applications
❖ The firm serves customers worldwide
❖ Corporate headquarters located in Jerusalem, Israel
❖ NYSE: MBLY
Company Outlook
Key Statistics Stock Performance
❖ Mobileye pioneered the use of mono-cameras to enhance
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
❖ The firm is continuing to revolutionize ADAS technology,
adding features such as intelligent headlight control, lane
departure warnings, and collision warnings
❖ 347 car models will integrate Mobileye’s EyeQ chips in 2016
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
5. 5
Management Direction
Future Goals
❖ Attain full autonomous driving features while retaining the
positives of the human element in vehicle operation
❖ Reduce human capital costs that arise from motor vehicle
crashes
❖ Retain current contracts with large automobile
manufacturers and Tier1 competitors to remain competitive
Technological Advancement
Strategies Usage Diversification
❖ The ability for ADAS systems to have 360 degree sensors,
increasing performance and reducing the risk of collision
❖ Utilize radars and lidars in addition to mono-cameras in order
to improve performance and progress further towards fully
autonomous vehicles
❖ Use low bandwidth mapping technology for vehicles to
integrate GPS technology into autonomous driving
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ Using crowdsourcing to power mapping for autonomous
driving, integrate low bandwidth processing (REM) into
GM and Volkswagen vehicles
❖ Effectively neutralizes the somewhere/everywhere tradeoff
(Google mapping uses 1gb/km, REM uses 10kb/km; 102x
more efficient)
❖ Expansion of safety features and ADAS into construction and
industrial vehicles
❖ ADAS systems pursued by insurance companies for
improved driver risk analysis
6. 6
Industry Overview
Current Trends
❖ Increasing regulations on fuel efficiency, influence on cruise
control technologies
❖ Consumer data availability due to the use of sensor
technology
❖ Higher cost of technology in vehicles (~35%) due to
increased demand for autonomous features
❖ Integration between telematics features and insurance
companies to increase good driver incentives
ADAS Adoption
Market Share (based on market cap) Willingness to Repurchase
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
7. 7
Autonomous Features
Increasing Affordability Effects
Tier1 Providers Tier2 Providers
❖ Autonomous features in vehicles open doors for many
industries to increase revenues
❖ Mobile service providers, software firms, financial services,
government
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ Tier2 providers such as Mobileye supply the core intelligence
that is used to integrate autonomous systems into vehicles
❖ Tier2 competitors: Hella, Busch Ltd, NVIDIA
❖ Barriers to entry: Mobileye has an advantage from secured
future contracts, early entry (Mobileye systems have been in
vehicles since 2007), and superior R&D
❖ Tier1 Providers are indirect competitors with Tier2 providers
❖ Some Tier1 and Tier2 manufacturers partner together for a
collective benefit
❖ Tier2 manufacturers experience rapid increases in risk when
market becomes competitive due to the nature of their
business models
8. 8
Drivers
Powerful Technology
Capital Structure Sustaining Growth
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ Mobileye’s Shield is the most effective ADAS camera
system on the market, designed for large commercial
vehicles
❖ Utilizes proprietary algorithms, software, and visual cameras
to reduce risks of collisions
❖ Mobileye’s products are the flagship products of the industry,
and through R&D, they stay in a competitive position
❖ Mobileye is debt free, as it does not carry short-term or long-
term debt
❖ Bloomberg lists the likelihood of Mobileye’s default on
liabilities as 0.02%
❖ Firm specific risk is higher than most (98.02%), but carries
little to no risk of bankruptcy
9. 9
Sustaining Growth
Legal Tailwinds Future OEM Contracts & Launches
OEM AM
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ United States Department of Transportation made agreement
with 20+ automobile manufacturers
❖ All new vehicles mandated to have automated emergency
braking by 2022
❖ AEB is highly dependent on effective ADAS systems
❖ EyeQ1, EyeQ2, EyeQ3 single camera systems are in
development for launch later this year, each tier will have
additional features
❖ 9 innovative new features total
❖ Contracted with Audi, BMW, Citroen, Ford, GM, & more
10. 10
Somewhere/Everywhere Tradeoff
“Somewhere” “Everywhere”
Mobileye Solution Solution Launch
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ “Somewhere” with full functionality, tradeoff is a large range
of mapping
❖ Problem seen in Google and Baidu’s autonomous vehicle
technology
❖ 3D detailed maps, inefficient bandwidth usage (1gb/km)
❖ “Everywhere” with partial functionality, tradeoff is quality of
mapping
❖ Problem seen in general car industry
❖ Low-res (nav) maps u
❖ Roadside experience management (REM)
❖ Utilizes crowd-sourcing of real time data for precise
localization
❖ Extremely efficient, utilizes only 10kb/km of driving
❖ Mobileye to launch REM in new Nissan vehicles in 2016
❖ Also working with Volkswagen and GM
❖ If crowd-sourced mapping is a success, Mobileye would gain
a further competitive edge in terms of autonomous
technology, and increasing future economic benefits.
11. 11
Supply Chain
Suppliers
❖ Sunny Optical Technology Group, STMicroelectronics
❖ Strong relationship with suppliers; STMicroelectronics and
Mobileye hit the 1,000,000th unit sold back in 2012
❖ Bloomberg reported very low levels of COGS (0.20%)
Future Products
Mobileye Customers Revenue & Gross Profit
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ Audi, BMW, Citroen, Ford, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar,
Nissan, Volvo are just a few of the major manufacturers that
Mobileye is launching with
❖ Mobileye also services independent businesses on vehicle
tracking to improve quality control and accountability
❖ EyeQ1
❖ Lane departure warning, intelligent headlight control
❖ EyeQ2 & EyeQ3
❖ Lane keeping and support, traffic sign recognition,
forward collision warning, headway monitoring, fusion
to radar, pedestrian detection warning, video only
adaptive cruise control, low speed automatic braking
12. 12
Inventory
Rise of Inventory Against Sales Revenue Issues/Benefits of Rising Inventory
EyeQ Chip Growth Ratios
❖ Mobileye tends to update its technology relatively often, so if
inventory is allowed to accumulate too high, there may be
losses due to obsolescence
❖ With an increasing amount of contracts and increased
consumer demand, a rising inventory will help Mobileye
fulfill sales
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ EyeQ Chip volume increased 83% year over year
❖ This increase in sales volume occurred despite an increase in
average selling price
❖ Helped generate a $96 million free cash flow in 2015
❖ Return on assets: 9.58%
❖ Return on equity: 15.04%
13. 13
AM
Aftermarket Add-ons
❖ Mobileye sells individual mono-cameras that attach to
dashboards for consumers
❖ Incorporates some of the features of the EyeQ (pedestrian
collision warning, lane departure, forward collision warning,
headway monitoring, intelligent high beam, speed limit
indication)
Smartphone Integration
Mobileye 5-Series Growth
❖ 187 million people own a smartphone
❖ By integrating some of the features into smartphone apps,
Mobileye is gaining an additional stream of revenue and
possible sustained growth
❖ The firm can release features for sale through the app store,
which results in a lower COGS and larger operating profits
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ Aftermarket revenues are relatively small compared to OEM
revenues, but growth can be sustained through finding new
sales channels such as the smartphone market
❖ Utilizes a single camera
❖ Connects via Bluetooth to smartphones
❖ Enables consumers to experience benefits of Mobileye’s
products without buying a new vehicle
14. 14
Projections
Revenues Meeting the Projections
Projected Revenues Projected Net Income
❖ If the automatic emergency braking regulation passes in the
automotive industry, then its long term growth rate is realistic
❖ However, if a competitor rises and is on par with Mobileye,
the growth rate is unrealistic as increased competition means
that less of the industry growth will go to Mobileye
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ Mobileye’s projections state that the managers believe that it
will experience 40% and 47% growth rates in 2016 and
2017, respectively
❖ The firm also estimates its long term growth rate to be 15%,
which is unusually high
15. 15
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
❖ Competitors are partners; if they create quality ADAS
systems themselves, Mobileye would lose revenue
❖ Doesn’t own a real barrier against other firms entering
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ Debt-free capital structure
❖ Flagship ADAS product
❖ Contracts with large automobile companies
❖ No current quality competition
❖ Competitors are also partners
❖ Automatic Emergency Brake regulation in the future
❖ Smartphone connectivity
❖ Crowdsourcing – mapping method
❖ Tier1 firms developing their own ADAS systems and not
needing Mobileye anymore
❖ Competition arising as growth is too strong not to attract
attention
❖ Fully autonomous vehicles by companies such as Google
16. 16
Valuation
Comparables Analysis Football Field Valuation
DCF (Perpetuity & Exit EBITDA Multiple) Sensitivity Analysis
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
❖ EV/EBITDA multiple used to derive an implied share price
❖ Implied share price ranged from $45.67 - $91.50 (17.1%-
134.6% upside)
❖ WACC of 8.2% utilized
❖ Perpetuity growth assumed to be 3.5%
❖ EBITDA Exit Multiple calculated as 9.5x
17. 17
Valuation (cont.)
Perpetuity Growth Method EBITDA Exit Multiple Method
Calculation of WACC Comparables Analysis
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
18. 18
Final Thoughts
Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics
Drivers & Growth
Opportunities
Valuation &
Final Thoughts
Appendix
Mobileye N.V. is a technological leader in the area of software algorithms and ADAS chip technology that is
taking advantage of the rapidly growing usage of self-driving features in automobiles, and is positioned well
for future growth due to future AEB regulations.
❖ Mobileye has a number of substantial OEM contracts with companies such as General
Motors, Mitsubishi, Honda, Nissan, and is set to take advantage of the increase in demand for
autonomous features.
❖ The United States Department of Transportation and IIHS recently announced a plan to make
automatic emergency braking a standard on all new vehicles by 2022.
❖ Mobileye has a competitive advantage due to the quality of its product and R&D, and has the
opportunity to increase revenues through many different markets, such as construction
vehicles.
We recommend Mobileye as a Buy with a 12 month price target of $70.00, a 67% upside from the
current share price.