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The End of Growth?

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“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist”   Kenneth Boulding

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The End of Growth?

  1. 1. The end of growth? Nicolas Meilhan Member of les Econoclastes and of ASPO France
  2. 2. “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist” Kenneth Boulding 2 World GDP - Trillions of 2014 US$, 0 to 2014- 0 20 40 60 80 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Source: Angus Maddison 2004 1994 1972 1870 2014
  3. 3. Oil is by far the main source of energy (and economic growth) Sources: Shilling et al., 1977, et BP Statistical Review, 2013 Evolution of world primary energy consumption - Million tons of oil equivalent , 1860 to 2012 - 3 30% 27% 22% 8% 6% 4% 2% 80% Biomass Nuclear Natural gas Coal Oil Hydro Wind, solar & geothermal
  4. 4. Four of the last five global recessions were preceded by an oil shock Economic Recession vs. Oil Prices Source: Steven Kopits, June 2009, Douglas Westwood, Oil: What price can America afford?, EIA, NBER 4
  5. 5. 5 Can our economy still grow without oil? Source: Nicolas Meilhan, modèle développé par Ian Schindler GDPGrowth (TrillionsofUS$2014) Gross Worldwide Product growth – real vs. modelled by oil extraction - 1970 to 2005- 0 1 2 3 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 GWP Growth (real) GWP Growth (model)
  6. 6. How much oil (and growth) is left to fuel our economy? 6 Source : Jean Laherrère et Colin Campbell, “The End of Cheap Oil”, Scientific American, Mars 1998 Crude oil extraction - 1930 to 2050 - Crudeoilextraction (billionsbarrelsperyear)
  7. 7. We still have a lot of oil left in the ground, but it is getting more and more expensive to extract it … 7 Source: Rystad Energy, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Global Investors Total liquids production in 2020 (millions barrels per day) Breakeven prices for non-producing oil fields Breakevenprice (US$/barel)
  8. 8. …while our willingness to pay for it is likely to decline, which will engender an oil extraction and consumption peak 8 Oil price vs. Crude oil extraction - 1969 à 2014 - Oil extraction (millions barrels per year) Source : Ian Schindler Oilprice (USDollarperbarrel)
  9. 9. We will get all the oil extractable for less than $120 per barrel and leave all the more expensive oil under our feet Source : Patrick Brocorens, ASPO Belgique 9 All liquid fuels extraction - 1900 to 2100 - Oilextraction (billionsbarrelsperyear)
  10. 10. Peak “all oil” is already a reality since December 2015 Crude oil extraction - January 2010 to September 2016 - Oilextraction (millionsbarrelsperday 10 Source : EIA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 World - North America North Amercia 2016
  11. 11. And peak « all oil » most likely means the growth party is over… 11 Source : Graham M. Turner 2012 – « On the Cust of Global Collapse? Updated Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Historical Data » GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, Volume 21, Number 2, June 2012, pp.116-124
  12. 12. Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant Energy & Transportation Practices (+33) 1 42 81 23 24 nicolas .meilhan@frost.com

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