Presentation by Charles Baubion, Risk Governance Expert, Public Governance, OECD, at the 6th Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management in Geneva on 12-13 June 2017. The event was organised by the OECD and the Swiss Federal Chancellery, bringing together government crisis managers and practitioners from international organisations, industry and leading think-tanks to share strategic insights and cutting-edge policy responses. For further information please see http://www.oecd.org/governance/6th-workshop-strategic-crisis-management.htm

1. PROGRESS AND
CHALLENGES FOR
STRATEGIC CRISIS
MANAGEMENT
Charles Baubion

2. • 2012: Inter-agency crisis management
• 2013: From early-warning to sense-making
• 2014: Strategic crisis management exercises
• 2015: Anticipation in crisis
• 2016: From crisis communication to meaning-making
• 2017: Managing Critical Infrastructure crisis
FOCUS: - International cooperation
- Partnership with the private sector
- Involving leadership
The OECD Network of Strategic
Crisis Managers
Federal Chancellery (FCh)

3. Crisis management: Preparing for
the unthinkable
 A key role for strategic leadership
 Fundamental to maintain trust
CLASSIC APPROACH
Scenario-based planning
NOVEL CRISIS
Facing the unexpected
Standard Operating Procedures Agile partnership / network
Early-warning Sense-making
Crisis Communication Meaning-making
NOVELTY COMPLEXITY UNCERTAINTY
TENSION POLITISATIONVALUES

4. Fundamentals for strategic crisis
management
OECD Recommendation on the
governance of critical risks (2014)
 Establish strategic crisis management
capacities
 Strengthen crisis leadership, early
detection and sense making
 Scale-up emergency response capabilities
OECD Risk Governance Report (2017)
 OECD Survey on Risk Governance
 35 country responses

5. Country Crises Year Novelty – Complexity – National significance
Australia Queensland floods 2011
Unprecedented scale and duration of the floods caused by an
exceptional la Niña event.
Canada Fort Mac Murray fires 2016
Massive forest fires surrounding an entire city forcing its full evacuation
and stopping oil production
France Paris terrorist attacks 2015
Simultaneous jihadi attacks with massive shooting in large gathering
and public space
Germany Migration crisis 2015
Large migrant flow crossing European borders to Germany
Iceland
Eyjafjallajökull volcanic
eruption
2010
Ash cloud dispersing particles across Europe affecting global air
transportation a week long
Italy Costa Concordia accident 2012
Accident of a large-size cruse boat with multinational victims and
technical complexities
Japan Great east Japan earthquake 2011
Very high magnitude earthquake and devastating tsunami affecting the
Fukushima nuclear reactors
Korea Sinking of ferry Sewol 2014
600 children killed in the sinking of a ferry disrespecting safety and
security procedures
Mexico Hurricanes Odile and Edward 2014
Simultaneous hurricanes affecting both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts
at the same time
Netherlands MH17 plane explosion 2014
Plane departing from Amsterdam exploded over Ukraine with
numerous Dutch citizens killed
Norway July 2011 terrorist attacks 2011
Simultaneous bombing of center of government and youth mass-killing
by a lone-wolf extremist
New Zealand Christchurch earthquake 2011
Unprecedented damages to the third largest city of the country
United States Hurricane Katrina 2005
Levees breaking causing large-scale socio-economic damages to the city
of New-Orleans
New strategic approaches to manage
complex crises

6. National frameworks for crisis
management evolved in the last decade
 Engaging the Centre of Government in SCM
 Engaging the whole-of-government across levels and sectors
 Engaging civil society and the private sector
6
8
12
19
0 5 10 15 20
Reports to a group of government appointed
experts
Reports to a Parliamentary committee
Rreports directly to the Head of Government
Reports through a minister to the Head of
Government
Number of countries

7. Managing multi-stakeholders response networks
Different logics and values
 Building a response network
 Coordination and leadership
 Up-scaling mechanisms
 Ensuring inter-operability

8. • Progress in science, technology, information systems
– Monitoring, detecting, forecasting hazards and threats
– Warning thresholds # false alarms
• What about unforeseen/complex events ?
– Unbundling complexity
– Mobilising multi-disciplinary expertise
– Trusted knowledge management systems
– Rapid reflexion force
Preparing for the ‘unknowns’
Identifying - early-warning - sense-making
Fukushima Deepwater HorizonAsh cloud

9. Mechanisms for situation awareness
and complex crisis anticipation
Yes, 30
No, 3
Yes, 17
No, 15
Mechanisms for situation awareness Complex crisis anticipation tools
GOOD PRACTICES
• UK Scientific Advisory Group in Emergencies (SAGE)
• Denmark Pandora Cell (DEMA)
• Mixed progress in developing ability to respond
to black swan events

10. Exercising and training leaders is
fundamental – local, national, international
2014 the Hague Nuclear Security Summit

11. Self-assessment of the achievement of the
Recommendation on crisis management
15
17
0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Yes, fully Yes, but partially No, but is taking steps in this
direction
Not yet
AxisTitle
Despite the many ongoing and completed improvements of crisis response
mechanisms, crisis managers continue to see challenges for further
improving their capabilities to face the unexpected

12. Progress in implementing the
Recommendation
• New crisis management doctrines engaging national leadership:
– mobilising the whole-of-government
– establishing partnerships with the private sector and civil society
organisations
• Progress in science and technology improved:
– capacities to forecast, detect and anticipate hazardous events and their
evolutions
– early warning systems
– sense-making capacities in crisis cells to face more unexpected crises
• More regular strategic crisis management drills and exercises in
recent years with an increased consideration to:
– critical infrastructure failures
– cross-border impacts
– hybrid threats

13. WHAT’S NEXT FOR OECD IN
STRATEGIC CRISIS MANAGEMENT?

14. OECD project on “Transnational science
advice during major crisis”
• Partnership between the OECD Global Science Forum & OECD High-Level Risk Forum
• Expert Group members chaired by:
– Dr. Robin Grimes, UK Foreign Office Chief Scientific Advisor
– Dr. Khotso Mokhele, Special Advisor of South African Minister of Science and Technology
OBJECTIVES:
• Strengthening the scientific basis of crisis management decisions made in countries
around the world
• Improving the sharing of data and information
OUTPUT:
• Compendium of national crisis response advisory mechanisms (and contact points)
• Framework for the timely international exchange of scientific data and information

15. Survey questionnaire

16. OECD science advice workshop
7-8 September 2017, Wilton Park, UK
◦ What types of mechanisms are appropriate for
ensuring provision of scientific and technical
advice to the governments during
transnational crises?
◦ How can we ensure that the science advice is
based on the most up-to-date information?
◦ What are the major challenges for sharing
information internationally when responding
to transnational crises? How can we improve or
solve them?