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Global
Population
growth
Young adults
population
growth
Urban
population
growth
The Bangladesh Government
expects to have 20 million
migrants around 2050, if the
worst-case sea level rise
scenarios become a reality.
Small islands in
the Pacific Ocean
are particularly
vulnerable to sea
level rise.
Moderate
High
Very high
Potential levels of migration
Hotspots of potential
migration due to
1 metre sea level rise
People living below sea level + 1 metre
Drylands Rest of the worldGlobal population distributionStrong population
growth and urbanisation
in drylands
The population growth
rate in drylands exceeds
the global rate. The dryland
population is projected to
grow from 2.7 billion today
to over 4 billion by 2050, an
increase of 40% to 50%.
Source: PBL
Potential levels of migration
Dryland hotspots of
potential migration
associated with water
stress
Between 2000 and 2010,
an estimated 40 million
people migrated out of
drylands, mostly in South
America, Africa and Asia.
Moderate
High
Very high
No data
A high likelihood of water stress, strong population growth with
a large share of young adults, and low income per capita, can be
associated with water-stress-related migration. By 2050, these
factors may all affect migration in many Sub-Saharan dryland
regions.
Drylands African drylands
Millions of people live in coastal
areas within the reach of 1m sea
level rise. Sea level rise, therefore,
will eventually become a potential
driver of migration in areas without
the capacity to help people adapt.
Hotspots of migration may be found
especially in Southeast Asia, the
Small Island Developing States and in
Africa, based on projected coping
capacity and number of people at risk.
2015
2050
36%
64%
59%
41%
33%
2%
76%
42%
9%
96%
83%
64%
168%
Drylands compared
to global averages
Strong population growth,
especially in combination
with a large share of
young adults, affects
migration processes.
This is projected to be
particularly the case for
the African drylands.
Source: PBL
Source: PBL
Source: PBL
Migration from rural areas to cities is among other variables associated
with a lack of rural economic perspective, population growth and increased
water stress. For 2050, water availability and soil quality are particularly
expected to deteriorate in the drier and poorer areas of the world.
HOTSPOTS OF MIGRATION
THE GEOGRAPHY OF FUTURE WATER CHALLENGES 2 MAPPING HOTSPOTS 7776
THE GEOGRAPHY OF
FUTURE WATER CHALLENGES

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