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Session 3 - Jim Ebdon - Ireland

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Climate Change and Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability
Green Budgeting Virtual Meeting - 17 March 2020

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Session 3 - Jim Ebdon - Ireland

  1. 1. Climate Change and Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability Jim Ebdon March 2020
  2. 2. OBR publications so far • First biennial Fiscal risks report in July 2017: – recognised climate change risks as ‘potentially huge’ – with fiscal risks from both sudden shocks and slower-building pressures, but – we lacked a framework to analyse the risks • Second FRR in July 2019: – developments in qualitative analysis – a Bank of England framework for assessing climate change risks – nature and relative scale of the fiscal risks – next steps towards quantitative analysis
  3. 3. Bank of England framework From extreme weather events From gradual global warming Investment Uncertainty about climate events 'Crowding out' from climate policies Consumption Increased risk of flooding to residential property 'Crowding out' from climate policies Trade Disruption to import/export flows Distortions from asymmetric climate policies Labour supply Loss of hours worked due to natural disasters Loss of hours worked due to extreme heat Energy, food and other inputs Food and other input shortages Risks to energy supply Capital stock Damage due to extreme weather Diversion of resources from productive investment to adaptation capital Diversion of resources from productive investment to mitigation activities Technology Diversion of resources from innovation to reconstruction and replacement Diversion of resources from innovation to adaptation capital Uncertainty about the rate of innovation and adoption of clean energy technologies Demand Supply Type of shock/impact Physical risks Transition risks From: Bank of England Staff Working Paper: Climate change and the macro-economy: a critical review, Jan 2018
  4. 4. NGFS scenario matrix Network for Greening the Financial System, First comprehensive report, A call for action: Climate change as a source of financial risk, April 2019
  5. 5. BoE exploratory scenario: illustrative pathways Bank of England, Discussion paper: The 2021 biennial exploratory scenario on the financial risks from climate change, December 2019
  6. 6. Likely OBR fiscal analysis • Scenario projections: – impacts of economy on fiscal position – not fiscal/policy impacts on the economy • Size of the fiscal risks from the scenarios: – order of magnitude – relative to other risks e.g. demography, recessions – relative to each other
  7. 7. Next steps • March 18 2020. BoE consultation closes • April 2020, NGFS publish global scenarios • July 2020, OBR progress update in Fiscal sustainability report • 2nd half 2020 BoE publish scenarios • Summer 2021, OBR examine fiscal risks using BoE scenarios