Adult Skills Survey Reveals Importance of Literacy, Numeracy Proficiency
1. ANDREAS SCHLEICHER
Special advisor to the Secretary-General on Education Policy
Deputy Director for Education and Skills
Skilled for Life?
KEY FINDINGS FROM THE SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
0
Brussels, 8 October 2013
2. Survey of Adult Skills
Participating countries
1
2013
(**see notes A and B in the Reader’s Guide).
3. 2016
Survey of Adult Skills
Participating countries
2
(**see notes A and B in the Reader’s Guide).
4. Survey of Adult Skills
in brief
4
(**see notes A and B in the Reader’s Guide).
4
in literacy, numeracy and problem
solving in technology-rich
environments.
166 thousand adults…
Representing 724 million 16-65 year-
olds in 24 countries/economies
Took an internationally
agreed assessment…
Also surveyed were generic skills such as
collaborating with others and organising
one’s time, and how adults use their skills
5. Literacy
The ability to...
Understand, evaluate, use and engage with written texts.
In order to..
Achieve one’s goals, and to develop one’s knowledge and potential.
Literacy encompasses a range of skills from..
The decoding of written words and sentences
The comprehension, interpretation and evaluation of complex texts.
Numeracy
The ability to…
Access, use, interpret and communicate mathematical information and ideas
In order to..
Engage in and manage the mathematical demands of a range of situations in adults.
Numeracy involves
Managing a situation or solving a problem in a real context, by responding to
mathematical content/information/ideas represented in multiple ways.
Technology
Rich Problem
Solving
The ability to…
Use digital technology communication tools and networks to acquire and
evaluate information, communicate with others and perform practical tasks.
The assessment focuses on the abilities to…
Solve problems for personal, work and civic purposes by setting up appropriate goals
and plans, and accessing and making use of information through computers and
computer networks.
“Key information-processing skills”
5
Survey of Adult Skills
Skills assessed
6. 1968-1977 1978-1987 1998-2007 2008-20161988-1997
1972-1980 1981-1990 2001-2010 2011-20201991-2000
55-65 45-54 35-44 25-34 16-24
Age distribution of the
Survey of Adult Skills
6
Age
range:
University graduation year
High-School graduation year
7. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Skills Transform Lives
and Drive Economies
What people know and what they can do with what
they know has a major impact on their life chances
7
8. Likelihood of positive social and economic
outcomes among highly proficient adults
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Good to
excellent
health
Being
Employed
High levels of
trust
Participation
in volunteer
activities
High levels of
political
efficacy
High wages
Literacy Numeracy
8
(scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below)
Odds ratio
9. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Inequality in skills
relates to how wealth is
shared in nations
11
10. Inequality in the distribution of
income and literacy skills
12
Australia
Austria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Japan
KoreaNetherlands
Norway
Poland
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
United States
Flanders (Belgium)
England/N. Ireland (UK)
0.2
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.3
0.32
0.34
0.36
0.38
0.4
1.41.451.51.551.61.651.7
Literacy skills inequality (9th/1st decile)
Income inequality (Gini coefficient)
Low income inequality
Low skills inequality
Low income inequality
High skills inequality
High income inequality
High skills inequality
High income inequality
Low skills inequality
Average
Average
11. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
The level and distribution of skills
differs markedly across countries
Much of the variation in skills proficiency is observed
within countries, so most countries have significant
shares of struggling adults
16
12. 240 250 260 270 280 290 300
Spain
Italy
United States
France
Ireland
Northern Ireland (UK)
Poland
England/N. Ireland (UK)
England (UK)
Korea
Cyprus**
Canada
Australia
Average
Russian Federation³
Germany
Estonia
Austria
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Denmark
Norway
Sweden
Netherlands
Flanders (Belgium)
Finland
Japan
25th
Mean and .95
confidence
interval for
mean 75th 95th5th
Score
Skills of adults
Numeracy
7 points are roughly equal to one
year of education
13. 240 250 260 270 280 290 300
Italy
Spain
France
Ireland
Poland
Northern Ireland (UK)
Cyprus**
Austria
United States
Germany
Denmark
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Korea
England (UK)
Average
Canada
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Russian Federation³
Flanders (Belgium)
Estonia
Norway
Sweden
Australia
Netherlands
Finland
Japan
25th
Mean and .95
confidence
interval for
mean 75th 95th5th
Score
Skills of adults
Literacy
7 points are roughly equal to one
year of education
14. 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Italy
Spain
France
Ireland
Poland
Northern Ireland (UK)
Cyprus**
Austria
United States
Germany
Denmark
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Korea
England (UK)
Average
Canada
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Russian Federation³
Flanders (Belgium)
Estonia
Norway
Sweden
Australia
Netherlands
Finland
Japan
25th
Mean and .95
confidence
interval for
mean 75th 95th5th
Score
Skills of adults
Literacy
15. 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Italy
Spain
France
Ireland
Poland
Northern Ireland (UK)
Cyprus**
Austria
United States
Germany
Denmark
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Korea
England (UK)
Average
Canada
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Russian Federation³
Flanders (Belgium)
Estonia
Norway
Sweden
Australia
Netherlands
Finland
Japan
25th
Mean and .95
confidence
interval for
mean 75th 95th5th
Score
Skills of adults
Literacy
16. 0.7
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.0
1.8
4.2
1.5
0.4
1.4
0.3
1.2
0.9
0.3
0.6
0.0
5.2
0.4
2.2
0.0
1.9
2.3
0.0
1.2
80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Italy
Spain
France
Ireland
Poland
Austria
United States
Germany
Denmark
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Korea
Average
Canada
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Russian Federation³
Flanders (Belgium)
Estonia
Norway
Sweden
Australia
Netherlands
Finland
Japan
Level 2 Level 1 Below Level 1 Level 3 Level 4/5 No information
%
Adults at Level 4/5 can
• Perform multiple-step operations to
integrate, interpret, or synthesise information from
complex or lengthy texts that involve conditional
and/or competing information.
• Make complex inferences and appropriately apply
background knowledge as well as interpret or
evaluate subtle truth claims or arguments.
Adults at Level 3 can
• Understand and respond appropriately
to dense or lengthy texts.
• Understand text structures and
rhetorical devices.
• Identify, interpret, or evaluate one or
more pieces of information and make
appropriate inferences.
• Perform multi-step operations and
select relevant data from competing
information in order to identify and
formulate responses.
•Technicians, Professionals
Adults at Level 2 can
• Integrate two or more pieces of
information based on criteria
• Compare and contrast or reason about
information and make low-level inferences.
• Navigate digital texts to access and
identify information from various parts of a
document.
•Shop assistants, machine operators
Adults at Level 1 can
• Read relatively short digital or print
continuous, non-continuous, or
mixed texts to locate a single piece
of information.
• Complete simple forms, understand
basic vocabulary, determine the
meaning of sentences, and read
continuous texts with a degree of
fluency.
29
What adults can do
Literacy
17. Evolution of employment in occupational groups
defined by level of skills proficiency
31
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Occupations with
scores in or near
upper half of
Level 3
Occupations with
scores in or near
lower half of
Level 3
Occupations with
scores in or near
upper half of
Level 2
Occupations with
scores in or near
lower half of
Level 2
Percent
18. 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Poland
Ireland
Slovak Republic
Estonia
Korea
United States
Austria
Czech Republic
Average
Flanders (Belgium)
Japan
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Germany
Canada
Australia
Denmark
Norway
Netherlands
Finland
Sweden
Level 2 Level 3
Young adults (16-24 year-olds) All adults (16-65 year-olds)
Proficiency in problem solving in
technology-rich environments
%
35
Adults at Level 3 can
• Complete tasks involving multiple
applications, a large number of
steps, impasses, and the discovery
and use of ad hoc commands in a
novel environment.
• Establish a plan to arrive at a
solution and monitor its
implementation as they deal with
unexpected outcomes and impasses.
Adults at Level 2 can
complete problems that
have explicit criteria for
success, a small number of
applications, and several
steps and operators. They
can monitor progress
towards a solution and
handle unexpected
outcomes or impasses.
19. New technologies
Percentage of workers who reported the introduction of new process or technologies in their
current workplace during the previous three years that affected their work
39
Source: European Working Conditions Survey, 2010. See Tables A1.7a and A1.7b.
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sweden
Finland
Norway
Denmark
UnitedKingdom
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Cyprus1
Ireland
Belgium
Germany
Korea
Latvia
Austria
Average
Estonia
Croatia
SlovakRepublic
France
Portugal
Lithuania
Italy
Spain
Slovenia
CzechRepublic
Hungary
Greece
Montenegro
Macedonia
Turkey
Poland
Romania
Bulgaria
Albania
Low-skilled clerical High-skilled clerical Low-skilled manual High-skilled manual Total
Percent
20. 225 275 325
Italy
Flanders (Belgium)
Spain
Ireland
Northern Ireland…
Poland
Slovak Republic
England/N.…
England (UK)
Denmark
United States
Norway
Average
Estonia
Germany
Canada
Australia
Czech Republic
Austria
Korea
Sweden
Netherlands
Finland
Japan
Score
General (secondary)
225 275 325
Score
Vocational (secondary)
Literacy skills of youth
By programme orientation
25th
percentile
Mean and .95
confidence
interval for
mean
75th
percentile
Average
score for
general
orientation
Average
score for
general
orientation
Average
score for
vocational
orientation
21. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Successful integration is not simply a matter of time.
In some countries, the time elapsed since immigrants
arrived appears to make little difference to their proficiency
in literacy and numeracy, suggesting either that the
incentives to learn the language of the receiving country are
not strong or that policies that encourage learning the
language of the receiving country are of limited effectiveness
Foreign-language immigrants
with low levels of education
tend to have low skills
45
25. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Some countries have made
significant progress in
improving skills proficiency
51
26. 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300Score
Literacy skills in younger
and older generations
Average16-24year-olds
KOREA
Germany
Norway
Average55-65year-olds
Spain
Finland
France
US
UK
27. Adults at Level 4/5 in literacy
12.6 million
16-24 year-
olds scoring
at Level 4/5
Estonia, 0.2%
Flanders
(Belgium)
, 1%
Ireland, 0.2%
Korea,1%
7.9 million
55-65 year-
olds scoring
at Level 4/5
Denmark, 0.5%
Those entering the job market Those nearing retirement
28. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Formal education plays a
key role in developing
foundation skills…
55
29. 70 50 30 10 10 30 50 70
Estonia
Poland
Korea
Ireland
Canada
Slovak Republic
Northern Ireland (UK)
Japan
Austria
United States
Average
Germany
England/N. Ireland (UK)
England (UK)
Denmark
Australia
Flanders (Belgium)
Finland
Czech Republic
Norway
Sweden
Netherlands
Level 2 Level 3
Below upper secondary Tertiary
PercentPercent
Problem solving proficiency
by educational attainment
30. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
…but more education
does not automatically
translate into better skills
62
31. Mean literacy proficiency and distribution
of literacy scores, by educational
attainment
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400
Lower than upper
secondary
Upper secondary
Tertiary
Italy
Score
25th
percentile
Mean
75th
percentile
Lower than upper
secondary
Upper secondary
Tertiary
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400
Japan
Score
63
Qualifications don’t always
equal skills
Level 2Level 1 and below
32. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Success is increasingly
about building skills
beyond formal education
64
34. Likelihood of participating in adult education and
training, by level of literacy proficiency
76
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5
Reference
group: Below
Level 1
Odds Ratio
35. Lessons
from strong
performers
High quality initial
education and
lifelong learning
• Investing in high quality
early childhood education
and initial
schooling, particularly for
children from
disadvantaged
backgrounds
• Financial support
targeted at disadvantage
• Opportunities and
incentives to continued
development of
proficiency, both outside
work and at the
workplace.
36. Lessons
from strong
performers
Make learning
everybody’s
business
• Governments, employers,
workers and parents
need effective and
equitable arrangements
as to who does and pays
for what, when and how
• Recognise that
individuals with poor
skills are unlikely to
engage in education on
their own and tend to
receive less employer-
sponsored training .
37. Lessons
from strong
performers
Effective links
between learning
and work
• Emphasis on workbased
learning allows people to
develop hard skills on
modern equipment and
soft skills through real-
world experience
• Employer engagement in
education and training
with assistance to SMEs
• Strengthen relevance of
learning, both for
workplace and workers
broader employability .
38. Lessons
from strong
performers
Allow workers to
adapt learning to
their lives
• Flexibility in content
and delivery (part-
time, flexible
hours, convenient
location)
• Distance learning and
open education
resources .
39. Lessons
from strong
performers
Identify those who
can benefit from
learning most
• Disadvantaged adults
need to be offered and
encouraged to improve
their learning
• Foreign-language
migrants
• Older adults
• Show how adults can
benefit from improved
skills, both
economically and
socially .
40. Lessons
from strong
performers
Improve
transparency
• Easy-to-find
information about
adult education
activities
• Combination of easily
searchable, up-to-date
online information and
personal guidance and
counselling services
• Less educated workers
tend to be less aware
of the opportunities
• Recognise and certify
skills proficiency .
41. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Putting skills to effective use
Skills will only translate into better
economic and social outcomes if they
are used effectively
87
42. Use of skills at work
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Reading at
work
Writing at
work
Numeracy at
work
ICT at work Problem
solving at
work
Average
United States
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
Most frequent use = 4
Least frequent use = 0
Indexofuse
43. The use of information-processing
skills at work, by establishment size
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Reading at
work
Writing at
work
Numeracy at
work
ICT at work Problem
solving
1-10 employees
11-50 employees
51-250 employees
251-1000 employees
1000+ employees
Most frequent use = 4
Least frequent use = 0
Indexofuse
44. 0 10 20 30 40
Austria
Spain
Czech…
Ireland
Germany
Slovak…
Italy
Korea
Average
Japan
Cyprus**
Australia
United States
Norway
UK
Flanders…
Denmark
Poland
Estonia
England
Northern…
Netherlands
Canada
Finland
Sweden Under-skilled
Over-skilled
%
Percentage of workers who are over/under
qualified over/under-skilled in literacy
40 30 20 10 0
Under-
qualification
Over-
qualification
%
%
45. Labour productivity
and the use of reading skills at work
Australia
Austria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Slovak Republic
Spain Sweden
United States
England/N. Ireland (UK)
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3
(log)Labourproductivity
Use of reading skills at work
Slope = 1.118 (0.407)
R2 = 0.296
Adjusted prediction
Slope = 1.643 (0.504)
R2 = 0.371
98
46. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Equal skills don’t always
imply equal opportunities
Gender differences in the use of literacy and numeracy
skills are partly due to the fact that men appear to be
slightly more proficient but also that they are more
commonly employed in full-time jobs, where skills are used
more intensively.
103
47. Gender gap in wages and in the use of problem-
solving skills at work
104
Australia
Austria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
United States
Flanders (Belgium)
England/N. Ireland (UK)Cyprus1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Percentagedifferencebetweenmen’sand
women’swages(menminuswomen)
Percentage difference in the use of problem-solving skills at work
(men minus women)
Slope 0.840
(0.199)
R2 = 0.472
Adjusted prediction
Slope 0.068 (0.123)
R2 = 0.015
48. Lessons
from strong
performers
Guidance
• Timely data about
demand for and supply
of skills
• Competent personnel
who have the latest
labour-market
information at their
fingertips to steer
learners
• Qualifications that are
coherent and easy to
interpret .
50. Lessons
from strong
performers
Help employers
make better use of
workers skills
• Flexible work
arrangements that
accommodate workers
with care obligations
and disabilities
• Encourage older
workers to remain in
the labour market
• Encourage employers
to hire those who
temporarily withdrew
from the labour
market .
51. Lessons
from strong
performers
Help economies
move up the value
chain
• Governments can
influence both employer
competitiveness
strategies and product-
market strategies, which
determine in what
markets the company
competes
• Strengthen 21st century
skills
• Foster entrepreneurship.
52. Find Out More at:
http://skills.oecd.org/skillsoutlook.htm
All national and international publications
The complete micro-level database
Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
…and remember:
Email
Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org
109
54. Trust and literacy proficiency
112
0
1
2
3
4
5
Level 2 Level 3 Level 1 or below
Odds Ratio
Statistically
significant differences
are in a darker tone
Reference group:
Level 4/5
55. Volunteering and literacy proficiency
113
0
1
2
3
4
5
Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5
Odds Ratio
Statistically
significant differences
are in a darker tone
Reference group:
Level 1 or below
56. Political efficacy and literacy proficiency
114
0
1
2
3
4
5
Level 2 Level 3 Level 1 or below
Odds Ratio
Statistically
significant differences
are in a darker tone
Reference group:
Level 4/5
57. Reported health and literacy proficiency
115
0
1
2
3
4
5 Level 2 Level 1 or below
Odds Ratio
Statistically
significant differences
are in a darker tone
Reference group:
Level 4/5
64. Australia
Austria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Poland Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
United States
Flanders (Belgium)
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320
Mean numeracy proficiency in PISA and in the
Survey of Adult Skills (17-19 year-olds)
122
Averageat17-19
OECD average for PISA 2009
PISA Score
Survey of Adult Skills score
Mean reading score in PISA 2009 and literacy score in the Survey of Adult Skills 2012
+
–
+
+
–
–
–
+
Editor's Notes
I would like to thank Nick Chambers and Employers&Education for putting this event together, and for the BOA to host it. This is a great venue for the launch of our Survey of Adult Skills.The significance of our Survey of Adult Skills lies in telling us for the first time about the skills that people actually have, rather than just looking at the formal qualifications they attained in the past. Its like a ‘PISA for adults’But let me emphasisethat the results are still under embargo until Tuesday 8 October. Its an experiment to launch this survey under embargo one day in advance and I have full confidence in you to keep to the embargo, so that we can do this again next year.
We have got data from a good group of countries in this first report…
…and there are more to follow in just a couple of years, among them Turkey.
A couple of facts about the survey itself…We have interviewed 166 thousand adults, who were randomly selected from the 24 countries that participated so far.They took an internationally agreed testIn literacy, numeracy and problem-solving skillsAnd we also surveyed their generic skills such as collaborating with others and organising their time; and we looked at adults actually use their skills.
We chose to focus the survey on the ability of people to understand, use and engage with written information; On their ability to use, interpret and communicate mathematical ideasAnd their capacity to use digital technologies and resources to get and evaluate knowledge.
The survey covered everyone from 16 to 65 years, so when you look for example at the 25-34-year-olds, they did their high school degree in the early 2000s, and their college degree in the mid 2000sAnd by looking at the skills of older adults, we are also getting an impression of education from the late 60s onwards.
If there is one central message from the Skills Survey, it is that what people know and what they do with what they know has a major impact on their life chances, much greater than what we would anticipate from looking at peoples qualifications alone.
You see that highly skilled adults are twice as likely to report good health, or to be employed, than poorly skilled. You also see they are more likely to trust others or to participate in volunteering activities. They are also seeing themselves as actors rather than as objects of political process, and they are getting much higher wages. Numeracy tends to have an even higher predictive power on economic outcomes.To look at it the other way round, poor skills severely limit people’s access to better-paying and more-rewarding jobs. It seems we also can’t develop fair and inclusive policies and engage with all citizens if a lack of proficiency in basic skills prevents them from fully participating in society. DefinitionsIncreased likelihood (odds ratio) of adults scoring at Level 4/5 in literacy reporting high earnings, high levels of trust and political efficacy, good health, participating in volunteer activities and being employed, compared with adults scoring at or below Level 1 in literacy (adjusted) Odds ratios adjusted for age, gender, educational attainment and immigrant and language backgroundTrust “There are only a few people you can trust completely”Political efficacy “People like don’t have any say about what the government does”High wage “workers hourly earnings above the country’s mean”Volunteering “In the last 12 months, how often, if at all, did you dovoluntary work, including unpaid work for a charity,political party, trade union or other non-profit organisation?
You see that highly skilled adults are twice as likely to report good health, or to be employed, than poorly skilled. You also see they are more likely to trust others or to participate in volunteering activities. They are also seeing themselves as actors rather than as objects of political process, and they are getting much higher wages. To look at it the other way round, poor skills severely limit people’s access to better-paying and more-rewarding jobs. It seems we also can’t develop fair and inclusive policies and engage with all citizens if a lack of proficiency in basic skills prevents them from fully participating in society. DefinitionsIncreased likelihood (odds ratio) of adults scoring at Level 4/5 in literacy reporting high earnings, high levels of trust and political efficacy, good health, participating in volunteer activities and being employed, compared with adults scoring at or below Level 1 in literacy (adjusted) Odds ratios adjusted for age, gender, educational attainment and immigrant and language backgroundTrust “There are only a few people you can trust completely”Political efficacy “People like don’t have any say about what the government does”High wage “workers hourly earnings above the country’s mean”Volunteering “In the last 12 months, how often, if at all, did you dovoluntary work, including unpaid work for a charity,political party, trade union or other non-profit organisation?
You see that highly skilled adults are twice as likely to report good health, or to be employed, than poorly skilled. You also see they are more likely to trust others or to participate in volunteering activities. They are also seeing themselves as actors rather than as objects of political process, and they are getting much higher wages. To look at it the other way round, poor skills severely limit people’s access to better-paying and more-rewarding jobs. It seems we also can’t develop fair and inclusive policies and engage with all citizens if a lack of proficiency in basic skills prevents them from fully participating in society. DefinitionsIncreased likelihood (odds ratio) of adults scoring at Level 4/5 in literacy reporting high earnings, high levels of trust and political efficacy, good health, participating in volunteer activities and being employed, compared with adults scoring at or below Level 1 in literacy (adjusted) Odds ratios adjusted for age, gender, educational attainment and immigrant and language backgroundTrust “There are only a few people you can trust completely”Political efficacy “People like don’t have any say about what the government does”High wage “workers hourly earnings above the country’s mean”Volunteering “In the last 12 months, how often, if at all, did you dovoluntary work, including unpaid work for a charity,political party, trade union or other non-profit organisation?
It works the same way for nations. The Skills Survey shows that the distribution of skills has significant implications for how the benefits of economic growth are shared within societies.
This chart shows you that greater inequality in skills proficiency – here on the horizontal axis - goes together with greater inequality in the distribution of income, on the vertical axis. Put simply, where large shares of adults have poor skills, it becomes difficult to introduce productivity-enhancing technologies and new ways of working. And that can stall improvements in living standards
Relationship between GDP per capita and percentage of adults aged 16-65 at or below Level 2 and at Level 4 or higher in numeracy proficiency
Relationship between GDP per capita and percentage of adults aged 16-65 at or below Level 2 and at Level 4 or higher in numeracy proficiency
Relationship between GDP per capita and percentage of adults aged 16-65 at or below Level 2 and at Level 4 or higher in numeracy proficiency
So lets see where countries stands on this test.DefinitionsThe data from the Russian Federation are preliminary and may be subject to change. Readers should note that the sample for the Russian Federation does not include the population of the Moscow municipal area. The data published, therefore, do not represent the entire resident population aged 16-65 in Russia but rather the population of Russia excluding the population residing in the Moscow municipal area. More detailed information regarding the data from the Russian Federation as well as that of other countries can be found in the Technical Report of the Survey of Adult Skills (OECD, 2013, forthcoming).
Here is the picture for the results in numeracy. On the horizontal axis you see the score of countries, and 7 points on this scale are roughly equivalent to one year of education.
3. The data from the Russian Federation are preliminary and may be subject to change. Readers should note that the sample for the Russian Federation does not include the population of the Moscow municipal area. The data published, therefore, do not represent the entire resident population aged 16-65 in Russia but rather the population of Russia excluding the population residing in the Moscow municipal area. More detailed information regarding the data from the Russian Federation as well as that of other countries can be found in the Technical Report of the Survey of Adult Skills (OECD, 2013, forthcoming).
Percentage of 16-65 year-olds scoring at each proficiency level in numeracy3. The data from the Russian Federation are preliminary and may be subject to change. Readers should note that the sample for the Russian Federation does not include the population of the Moscow municipal area. The data published, therefore, do not represent the entire resident population aged 16-65 in Russia but rather the population of Russia excluding the population residing in the Moscow municipal area. More detailed information regarding the data from the Russian Federation as well as that of other countries can be found in the Technical Report of the Survey of Adult Skills (OECD, 2013, forthcoming).
Percentage of 16-65 year-olds scoring at each proficiency level in numeracy
And here is the same picture for literacy, you see there is some movement, some countries do better in literacy than in numeracy, but overall the picture is rather similar, again, you you can see Japanese and Finnish adults around 6 years ahead of Italian and Spanish adults.But I want to bring a second dimension into the picture……and to do that, I am now going to compress the scale…
And then I am adding the distribution of proficiency in every country. What you see here is that even highly literate nations have significant shallow areas in their talent pools. In all countries except Japan, at least one in ten adults doesn’t make it beyond our baseline level in literacy or numeracy.
And then I am adding the distribution of proficiency in every country. What you see here is that even highly literate nations have significant shallow areas in their talent pools. In all countries except Japan, at least one in ten adults doesn’t make it beyond our baseline level in literacy or numeracy.
Percentage of adults scoring at each proficiency level in literacy 3. The data from the Russian Federation are preliminary and may be subject to change. Readers should note that the sample for the Russian Federation does not include the population of the Moscow municipal area. The data published, therefore, do not represent the entire resident population aged 16-65 in Russia but rather the population of Russia excluding the population residing in the Moscow municipal area. More detailed information regarding the data from the Russian Federation as well as that of other countries can be found in the Technical Report of the Survey of Adult Skills (OECD, 2013, forthcoming).
We can look at the skills of nations in more refined ways, looking not just at how countries do relative to each other, but at what exactly adults can and cannot do.
Why are these distributions so important? Look at how employment has evolved for different skill categories. Strong growth isevident in the share of employment in occupations associated with the highest average levels of key information processingskills. Employment in occupations corresponding to the lowest average levels of information-processing skills has been rather stable. In between, the results are more mixed. Occupations corresponding to the next-highest average levels of literacy and numeracy have been stable, but those corresponding to the next-lowest average levels have experienced a sharp decline in employment share between 1998 and 2008. The country-by-country patterns, in most cases, are similar to the overall trend.Of course, there are many policy devices through which you can enhance equity, tax policies, for example, can give money from the rich to the poor. But that’s all about dealing with the symptoms. Here you see the source of inequalities. Our labour-markets show as significant level of skills polarisation that will drive an every deeper wedge between those who are highly skills and those who are not.
Another way of looking at the evolution of demand for skills is provided by Autor, Levy and Murnane (2003), whoclassify jobs into routine and non-routine tasks. They argue that the share of non-routine analytic and interactive jobtasks (tasks that involve expert thinking and complex communication skills) performed by American workers hasincreased steadily since 1960. The share of routine cognitive and manual tasks began to decline in theearly 1970s and 1980s, respectively – coinciding with the introduction of computers and computerised productionprocesses. These are tasks that are more readily automated and put into formal algorithms. The share of non-routinemanual tasks also declined, but stabilised in the 1990s, possibly due to the fact that they cannot be easily computerisedor outsourced.
Competitive pressures and technological change mean that the modern workplace is in a state of constant change. Workis regularly re-organised either to support the introduction of technology or to reduce costs or improve productivity. Asubstantial proportion of workers are in workplaces that have introduced new technologies and/or undergone significantrestructuring. Irrespective of their origin, changes to the way work is organised contributeto a changing demand for skills and require that individuals adapt and learn new things (e.g. Green, 2012; Caroli andvan Reenen, 2001).
Percentage of 16-65 year-olds scoring at each proficiency level in problem solving in technology-rich environments
Percentage of 16-65 year-olds scoring at each proficiency level in problem solving in technology-rich environments
Competitive pressures and technological change mean that the modern workplace is in a state of constant change. Workis regularly re-organised either to support the introduction of technology or to reduce costs or improve productivity. Asubstantial proportion of workers are in workplaces that have introduced new technologies and/or undergone significantrestructuring. Irrespective of their origin, changes to the way work is organised contributeto a changing demand for skills and require that individuals adapt and learn new things (e.g. Green, 2012; Caroli andvan Reenen, 2001).
Lets look at young people with different types of educational pathways come out, who have upper secondary level as their highest level of attainment. Lets put the average of academic qualifications also on the left side. And now I add the distribution of literacy skills among vocational graduates. What you see clearly is that, in all countries, there is a significant gap in foundation skills between people with academic and vocational qualifications. Minister Hancock asked whether this chart destroys the myth that in Austria and Germany, vocational education attracts the best and brightest. And yes, it does. But you can turn that argument around and say that vocational programmes in these countries start with a lower transversal skill base, but get people highly labour-market relevant qualifications with a good chance to succeed in the labour market, which makes them all the more impressive.
Mean literacy proficiency and distribution of literacy scores for adults aged 16 to 29 whose highest level of education is upper secondary, by orientation of education
The Skills Survey also shows that, in some countries, social or migrationbackgrounds also have a major impact on skills, which means that we are not yet good enough at leveraging all of our potential, particularly that of immigrants.
Socio-economic gradient, 16-24 year-olds
Adjusted odds ratio of scoring at or below Level 2 in literacy, by respondent’s and parents’ level of education
The Skills Survey also shows that, in some countries, migrationbackgrounds also have a major impact on skills, which means that we are not yet good enough at leveraging all of our potential, particularly that of immigrants.
Lets look at the performance of adults without an immigrant background first. You can see them here doing quite well in most countries, largely at level 3, in some countries at level 2.
If you compare that with the performance of recent immigrants, you can see a big gap in some countries.
What is more surprising is that, in countries like Spain, Germany, France, the Netherlands or the US even immigrants who have spent 5 or more years in the country don’t do much better, which tells you that time alone does not make the challenges go away.But look at Finland or Sweden here. If you are more than 5 years in these countries as an immigrant, you have a fair chance of moving forward.
Adjusted odds ratios of scoring at or below Level 2 in literacy, by immigrant, language and socio-economic background
But lets get to some positive aspects, the Skills Survey also shows that some countries have made amazing progress in equipping more people with better skills.
Young Koreans, for example, are outperformed only by their Japanese counterparts, while Korea’s 55 to 64 year-olds are among the three lowest-performing groups of this age across all participating countries. Every decade, Korea has been the equivalent of two years in quality, wihtout raising quantity.The results from Finland tell a similar story. But progress has been uneven. Young Brits and Americans are entering a much more demanding job market with similar literacy and numeracy skills as their compatriots who are retiring. The talent pool in these countries could shrink significantly over the next decades unless urgent action is taken both to improve schooling and to provide adults with better opportunities to develop and maintain their skills
These changes have had major implications on the composition of the global talent pool. Among those nearing retirement, more than 40% of adults are Americans. Among those entering the workforce, it is less than 30%. Korea was not on the map two generations ago. Young Koreans make up 6% of the highly skills talent pool. So the future workforce in the OECD area is going to look very differently than in the past.
As you would expect, formal education is one of the main mechanisms through which proficiency in literacy, numeracy and problem solving is developed and maintained.
Percentage of low- and high-educated adults scoring at Level 2 or 3 in problem solving in technology-rich environmentsEven among tertiary graduates, you just have about half of the population you can consider reasonably comfortable with new technologies. Not talking about developing countries here, these are the most advanced economies.
Adjusted odds ratios of 16-24 year-olds scoring at or below proficiency Level 2 on the literacy scale, by education and work status
Adjusted odds ratios of 16-24 year-olds scoring at or below proficiency Level 2 on the literacy scale, by education and work status
Mean score differences on the literacy scale between low- and high- educated adults
Percentage of adults who have not attained upper secondary education and of those who have attained tertiary education, by literacy proficiency score
Percentage of adults who have not attained upper secondary education and of those who have attained tertiary education, by literacy proficiency score
But our data also show that more education does not automatically translate into better skills, better jobs and better lives. Actual literacy levels often differ markedly from what formal education qualifications suggest. For example, Italy, Spain and the United States rank much higher internationally in the share of young people with tertiary degrees than in the level of literacy or numeracy proficiency among people that age.
Look at this chart, where you see the middle half of the skill distribution of Italian graduates at different levels. You can see that Italians who did not complete school are not all low skilled. Significant overlap.It is also striking that, on average, young Japanese and Dutch high school graduates easily outperform university graduates in some other countries. In fact, in most countries at least a quarter of university graduates do not score higher than Level 2 on our literacy test, and are thus insufficiently equipped for what their jobs demand of them. Conversely, in Australia, Finland, Japan, the Netherlands and Norway, more than one in four adults without a high school degree have made it to Level 3 in literacy, which shows that people can, indeed, recover from poor initial schooling. Surely there are many reasons why skills and qualifications differ; but these data suggest that we may need to update and re-define our education qualifications. Countries like Italy or Spain also need to think whether their universities are telling their students the truth when they are certifying their skills.
Beyond formal education, learning occurs in a range of other settings, including within the family, at the workplace and through self-directed individual activity. For skills to retain their value, they must be continuously developed throughout life.
Average trend scores by age, adjusted for educational attainment and language background, foreign-born adults excluded
Average trend scores by age, adjusted for educational attainment and language background, foreign-born adults excluded
Average trend scores by age, adjusted for educational attainment and language background, foreign-born adults excluded
Trend scores in literacy, by age, foreign-born adults excluded
Trend scores on the literacy scale, by age, adjusted for educational attainment and language background, foreign-born adults excluded
Trend scores on the literacy scale, by age (ageing effect), for selected countries, foreign-born adults excluded
Trend scores on the literacy scale, by age (ageing effect), for selected countries, foreign-born adults excluded
Trend scores on the literacy scale, by age (ageing effect), for selected countries, foreign-born adults excluded
Percentage of adults who participated in adult education and training during year prior to the survey, by level of proficiency in literacy
Percentage of adults who participated in adult education and training during year prior to the survey, by level of proficiency in literacy
Adjusted odds ratios of adults participating in adult education and training during year prior to the survey, by level of proficiency in literacy
So what can we learn form the most successful skills systems. We are at the very beginning with understanding the results from the survey, but some things are apparent.
Fig 6.5 Odds ratios showing the effect of education and proficiency in literacy on the likelihood of participating in the labour market among adults not in formal education. Results are adjusted for gender, age, marital and foreign-born status. The odds ratios correspond to a one-standard-deviation increase in proficiency/years of education. Statistically significant values are shown in darker tones. Years of education have a standard deviation of 3.05, literacy has a standard deviation of 45.76.
Fig. 6.6. Adjusted odds ratios showing the effect of education and literacy on the likelihood of being employed among adults not in formal education. Results are adjusted for gender, age, marital and foreign-born status. The odds ratios correspond to a one-standard-deviation increase in literacy/years of education. Statistically significant values are shown in darker tones. Years of education have a standard deviation of 3.05, literacy has a standard deviation of 45.76.
Fig. 6.7. Percentage change in wages associated with a one-standard-deviation change in years of education and proficiency in literacy.Coefficients from the OLS regression of log hourly wages on years of education and proficiency, directly interpreted as percentage effects on wages. Coefficients adjusted for age, gender, foreign-born status and tenure. The wage distribution was trimmed to eliminate the 1st and 99th percentiles. All values are statistically significant. The regression sample includes only employees. Years of education have a standard deviation of 3.05, literacy has a standard deviation of 45.76.
All this said, skills are only valuable when they are used effectively, and the Skills Survey shows that some countries are far better than others in making good use of their talent. While the US and England have a limited skills base, they are extracting good value from it. The reverse is true for Japan, where rigid labour-market arrangements prevent many high-skilled individuals, most notably women, from reaping the rewards that should accrue to them. At times, over-reliance on qualifications also makes it harder for those who have the right skills, but who did not have the same access to education as others, to gain entry into jobs where those skills can be put to full use. The data show that this is particularly true among migrant workers.
Percentage of workers in jobs requiring primary education (ISCED-1) or less and in jobs requiring tertiary education (ISCED-5 or higher)
For instance SME enterprises tend to use skills less frequently than larger establishments (e.g. reason for low use in countries like Italy).
The sample includes only workers.
Definitions Overqualification: A worker is classified as over-qualified when the difference between his or her qualification leveland the qualification level required in his or her job is positive.Underqualification: A worker is classified as under-qualified when the difference between his or her qualificationlevel and the qualification level required in his or her job is negative.Required qualification: Based on respondents’ answers to the question “If applying today, what would be the usualqualifications, if any, that someone would need to get this type of job?”Over-skilling in literacy, numeracy or problem solving: When a worker’s proficiency is above the maximum required by his or her job.Under-skilling: When a worker’s proficiency is below the minimum required by his or her job.Skill requirements: The minimum and maximum skill levels required correspond to the minimum and maximumobserved proficiency of workers who answer negatively to the questions: “Do you feel that youhave the skills to cope with more demanding duties than those you are required to perform inyour current job?”; and “Do you feel that you need further training in order to cope well withyour present duties?”
Does skill match matter? This chart shows that it does. You see that people who use their skills more, produce more per hour worked. In fact, differences in the average use of reading skills explain around 30% of the variation in labour productivity across countries. Interestingly, our data show that some less-proficient workers use their skills even more intensively than more proficient workers do. Under-use of skills is particularly common among young and foreign-born workers and among those employed in small enterprises, in part-time jobs or on fixed-term contracts. And it shows in their wages.
Effects of qualification mismatch controlling for skills mismatch.From OLS regressions including controls for years of education, age groups, gender, marital status, working experience, tenure, foreign-born status, establishment size, contract type, hours worked, public sector dummy, proficiency in numeracy and use of skills at work. The sample includes only employees. Statistically (at the 10% level) significant values are shown in darker tones. Hourly wages. The wage distribution was trimmed to eliminate the 1st and 99th percentiles. Over-/under-qualification is defined relative to the qualification needed to get the job, as reported by the respondents.
Effects of skills mismatch controlling for qualification mismatch.From OLS regressions including controls for years of education, age groups, gender, marital status, working experience, tenure, foreign-born status, establishment size, contract type, hours worked, public sector dummy, proficiency in numeracy and use of skills at work. The sample includes only employees. Statistically (at the 10% level) significant values are shown in darker tones. Hourly wages. The wage distribution was trimmed to eliminate the 1st and 99th percentiles.
Effects of skills mismatch controlling for qualification mismatch.Effects of qualification mismatch controlling for skills mismatch.From OLS regressions including controls for years of education, age groups, gender, marital status, working experience, tenure, foreign-born status, establishment size, contract type, hours worked, public sector dummy, proficiency in numeracy and use of skills at work. The sample includes only employees. Statistically (at the 10% level) significant values are shown in darker tones. Hourly wages. The wage distribution was trimmed to eliminate the 1st and 99th percentiles. Over-/under-qualification is defined relative to the qualification needed to get the job, as reported by the respondents.
The bottom axes correspond to the unadjusted series and the top axes to the adjusted series. The tertiary wage premium is computed as the percentage difference between the average hourly wages, including bonuses, of tertiary-educated (ISCED 5 or more) and less-educated (from less than ISCED 1 to ISCED 4) workers. The wage distribution was trimmed to eliminate the 1st and 99th percentiles. Adjusted estimates are based on OLS regressions including controls for average literacy and numeracy proficiency scores, dummies for occupations (9) and industry (10). Lines are best linear predictions. The sample includes full-time employees only. Standard errors in parentheses.
Gender differences in the use of literacy and numeracy skills are partly due to the fact that men appear to be slightly more proficient but also that they are more commonly employed in full-time jobs, where skills are used more intensively.
Notes : The gender gap in wages is computed as the percentage difference between men's and women's average hourly wages, including bonuses. The wage distribution was trimmed to eliminate the 1st and 99th percentiles. Adjusted estimates are based on OLS regressions including controls for average literacy and numeracy scores, dummies for highest qualification (4), occupations (9) and industry (10). Lines are best linear predictions. The sample includes only full-time employees. Standard errors in parentheses.
So what can we do to ensure that the skills we develop match those most in need? Again, there are a couple of policy lessons we can learn from countries with strong skills systems.
Odds ratio showing the likelihood of adults reporting low levels of trust, by level of proficiency in literacy (adjusted)
Odds ratio showing the likelihood of adults participating in volunteer activities, by level of proficiency in literacy (adjusted)
Odds ratio showing the likelihood of adults reporting low levels of political efficacy, by level of proficiency in literacy (adjusted)
Odds ratio showing the likelihood of adults reporting fair or poor health, by level of proficiency in literacy (adjusted)