Urban Resilience
© Ad Meskens/Wikimedia Commons

Urban Resilience: Short Run Disasters and
Long-Term Effects
• A long literature documents that cities bounce back after physical shocks
(Davis and Weinstein on Japanese bombing in WWII).
• Still plenty of short run damage.
• The impact of disaster is always and everywhere mediated by the strength
of civil society at the moment that the disaster strikes (Kahn, 2005) true
for impact of plagues as well.
• Quality of government; education level.
• True for the plagues as well.
• Shocks to human capital (entrepreneurship) seem to have a larger long
term effect.
• Attracting and retaining smart people seems critical for long-term
resilience – but protecting cities from climate harm requires something
else.

The Cyprian Plague of the Third Century

The Decline of the Costs of Moving Goods
Dollars
per
Ton
Mile
(Real)
Railroad Revenue per Ton Mile
year
1890 2000
.02323
.185063

Sprawl in the New World and Old
Photo by Simon P Photo by David Monniaux

0
.02
.04
.06
.08
.1
Average
Population
Growth
by
County,
2000-2010
1 2 3 4 5
Average Population Growth by Average January Temperature
(Quintiles)

Cheap Transport killed Urban Industry,
Like NYC Garments

City 1950 Pop. 2000 Pop. Change
New York 7,891,957 8,008,278 +1.5 %
Chicago 3.620,962 2,896,016 -20%
Philadelphia 2,071,605 1,517,550 -27%
Los Angeles 1,970,358 3,694,820 +87%
Detroit 1,849,568 951,270 -52%
Baltimore 949,708 651,154 -32%
Cleveland 914,808 478,403 -48%
St. Louis 856,796 348,189 -60%
Washington 802,178 572,059 -29%
Boston 801,444 589,141 -26%

Will the last person to leave Seattle (and
Boston) please turn out the lights?
Photo by Postdil Image by M2545

Share of Adults with B.A.s 2000
Per Capita GDP 2010 .
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
o
Bakersfi
o o
o
Las Vega
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
Detroit
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
New York
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Atlanta
o
Boston
o
o
o
o
o
o
San Jose
oSan Fran

0
.05
.1
.15
Average
Population
Growth
by
County,
2000-2010
1 2 3 4 5
Average Population Growth by Share with BA in 2000
(Quintiles)

The rise of urban knowledge industries
Image by Runner1928

Chinitz: Contrasts in Agglomeration: New York
and Pittsburgh

0
.5
1
1.5
2
Average
Percent
Growth
in
Employment,
1977-2010
1 2 3 4 5
Smallest firms are in Quintile 1
MSA Employment Growth (1977-2010)
by Average Firm Size (1977) Quintiles
Economic Growth and Firm Size

Zoom Means More Competition for Global
Talent
Image by perzon seo