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Africa and the global crisis: Can Africa continue to grow?

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OECD Development Centre, Paris
OECD Development Centre, Paris

African countries need the full support of donors to continue investing in infrastructure and structural reforms through the crisis.

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Léonce Ndikumana Director, Research Department African Development Bank 23 April 2009 Africa and the global crisis: Can Africa continue to grow? 9th Intenational Economic Forum on Africa, Paris, 5 June, 2009
Growth Africa still growing but slowdown is significant Source : OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank. 2008 Real GDP Growth (%)
Global Crisis Taking a toll on Africa’s growth prospects GDP Growth projections – then and now Source : OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank. 2008 April 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09
Growth Regional disparities (May forecasts) Southern Africa hit severely: Oil (Angola) Minerals (Botswana) 2007 2008(e) 2009(p) 2010(p)       February May February May GDP Growth Rate in percentage             Central Africa 4.0 5.0 2.8 2.0 3.6 3.2 Eastern Africa 8.8 7.3 5.5 5.1 5.7 5.5 Northern Africa 5.3 5.8 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.1 Southern Africa 7.0 5.2 0.2 -1.0 4.6 3.6 Western Africa 5.4 5.4 4.2 3.3 4.6 3.4 AFRICA 6.1 5.7 2.8 2.3 4.5 4.0 Memorandum items             Sub-Saharan Africa 6.4 5.5 2.4 1.4 4.7 3.8 Oil-exporting countries 6.8 6.6 2.4 2.5 4.5 4.1 Oil importing countries 5.4 4.6 3.3 2.1 4.5 3.8
Trade The global trade collapse is now hitting Africa ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source : African Economic Outlook, based on World Bank, 2009 Hard commodities Soft Commodities Source : Datastream, 2009 - 94% Source : African Economic Outlook, 2009 - 112%
Private financial flows A global retrenchment of capital Source : OECD Development Centre , based on UNCTAD 2009 Source : OECD Development Centre , based on World Bank, 2009 Remittances Foreign Direct investment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Stock Markets (MSCI price index local currency) Source : Thomson Datastream 2009
Global Crisis A patchwork of impacts Source: African Economic Outlook, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],- 2 to- 3 % Zero to – 1.9 % Greater than 3 % Increased growth between 2008-09 Growth deceleration 2008 - 2009 African growth has taken a serious hit: 2008: near 6% 2009: below 3%
Oil Exporters The price of having all eggs in one basket Source : OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank *: African Economic Outlook forecasts … and little room left for manoeuvre ,[object Object],[object Object],Taking a clear hit from the oil price fall…
Oil Importers Proving resilient… so far Source : OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank *: African Economic Outlook forecasts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Holding up against the crisis so far… … yet challenges rising
Crisis Main messages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Léonce Ndikumana Director, Research Department African Development Bank 23 April 2009 Africa and the global crisis: Can Africa continue to grow? 9th Intenational Economic Forum on Africa, Paris, 5 June, 2009

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Africa and the global crisis: Can Africa continue to grow?

  • 1. Léonce Ndikumana Director, Research Department African Development Bank 23 April 2009 Africa and the global crisis: Can Africa continue to grow? 9th Intenational Economic Forum on Africa, Paris, 5 June, 2009
  • 2. Growth Africa still growing but slowdown is significant Source : OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank. 2008 Real GDP Growth (%)
  • 3. Global Crisis Taking a toll on Africa’s growth prospects GDP Growth projections – then and now Source : OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank. 2008 April 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09
  • 4. Growth Regional disparities (May forecasts) Southern Africa hit severely: Oil (Angola) Minerals (Botswana) 2007 2008(e) 2009(p) 2010(p)       February May February May GDP Growth Rate in percentage             Central Africa 4.0 5.0 2.8 2.0 3.6 3.2 Eastern Africa 8.8 7.3 5.5 5.1 5.7 5.5 Northern Africa 5.3 5.8 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.1 Southern Africa 7.0 5.2 0.2 -1.0 4.6 3.6 Western Africa 5.4 5.4 4.2 3.3 4.6 3.4 AFRICA 6.1 5.7 2.8 2.3 4.5 4.0 Memorandum items             Sub-Saharan Africa 6.4 5.5 2.4 1.4 4.7 3.8 Oil-exporting countries 6.8 6.6 2.4 2.5 4.5 4.1 Oil importing countries 5.4 4.6 3.3 2.1 4.5 3.8
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  • 11. Léonce Ndikumana Director, Research Department African Development Bank 23 April 2009 Africa and the global crisis: Can Africa continue to grow? 9th Intenational Economic Forum on Africa, Paris, 5 June, 2009