1. Prof. Joeri ROGELJ
Questioning climate progress
three dimensions of climate overconfidence
Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change
12-13 September 2023, Paris, France

2. Three dimensions of climate overconfidence
relevant to the Global Stocktake
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: ENB, Ken Sklute, R. Butler
Progress in pledges Climate projections Overshooting as viable alternative

3. We are way off track
Contrasting messages about what current climate action brings
We are almost there
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj

4. Contrasting messages of pledges versus policies
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets
leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248
Three metrics to transparently
assess net-zero pledge credibility:
• Is target legally binding?
• Is there a credible
implementation plan?
• Are near-term policies already
putting a country’s emissions
on a downward path?

5. Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets
leaves world at high risk
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets
leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248
Three metrics to transparently
assess net-zero pledge credibility:
• Is target legally binding?
• Is there a credible
implementation plan?
• Are near-term policies already
putting a country’s emissions
on a downward path?

6. Three dimensions of climate overconfidence
relevant to the Global Stocktake
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: ENB, Ken Sklute, R. Butler
Progress in pledges Climate projections Overshooting as viable alternative

7. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets
leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248

8. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets
leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248

9. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets
leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248

10. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets
leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248

11. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets
leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248

12. Three dimensions of climate overconfidence
relevant to the Global Stocktake
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Source: ENB, Ken Sklute, R. Butler
Progress in pledges Climate projections Overshooting as viable alternative

13. Overconfidence about ease of overshooting
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Figure source: Rogelj et al (2021) ‘Net-zero emissions targets are
vague: three ways to fix’, Nature, doi: 10.1038/d41586-021-00662-3

14. Overconfidence about ease of overshooting
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Figure source: Rogelj et al (2021) ‘Net-zero emissions targets are
vague: three ways to fix’, Nature, doi: 10.1038/d41586-021-00662-3
Overshooting overconfidence in:
• Amount of CO2 removal required for
overshoot due to uncertainty in peak
warming
• Technological ability of scaling up
permanent CO2 removal technologies
• Effectiveness of CO2 removal in
reversing global warming

15. Overshooting is a flawed concept for harm prevention
Questioning climate progress
12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
Overshoot concept
= aim to fail and hope for the best
Peak and decline
= focus on minimizing damages until
problem is under control and return to
safer pastures thereafter

16. Thank you
Questioning climate progress: three dimensions of climate overconfidence
Contact: j.rogelj@imperial.ac.uk