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2050 LONG-TERM EMISSION DEVELOPEMT
STRATEGY FOR NIGERIA: AN INVESTMENT
AND FINANCIAL FLOW (I&FF) PERSPECTIVE
Dr. Victor Os...
CONTENT OF THE PRESENTATION
Background / Policy Alignment
Implementation of NDC – An IF&F
drive / start point
Linking NDC ...
Background
GLOBAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS
CLIMATE CHANGE
➢The United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
➢A...
Nigeria’s Policy Alignment and
Integration
National Policy on Climate Change
The Strategic Framework for Voluntary
Nationa...
Nigeria’s NDC at a Glance
Nigeria’s NDC is focusing on Mitigation &
Adaptation
Type of
Mitigation
contribution
• Economy-wide mitigation targets
• R...
Nigeria NDC implementation is focusing on the development of 5
Sectoral Section Plans.
Power (On-grid power generation; Of...
National Adaptation Strategy
&plan of Action for Climate
Change Nigeria
SDGs
NDC Sectoral Action
Plan
National Policy on
C...
NIGERIA’S NDC: EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS OF 20-45% BY 2030 IS A
FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT TOWARDS LT GROWTH PATHWAY
With economic growt...
➢ Develop financial strategy for funding the country’s NDC sectoral
climate action
➢ Increase private sector involvement i...
➢ Use information on past & current Investment and Financial Flows
from both public & private sector to establish future (...
Steps in undertaking the I&FF
Sector 1 Team, e.g.
energy
Sector 2 Team, e.g.
agriculture
Sector 3 Team, e.g. oil and
gas
Project Management Unit (PMU)
S...
Actions taken so far for IF&F assement:
 Engage key ministries & identify key sectors – 2018 / 2019
 Organize National I...
 Paris Agreement – Article 4.19 (2015) - Conduct National Inter-
Ministerial Dialogue: All parties should strive to formu...
Long-term strategies – from long-term
ambition to near-term changes
Business-as-usual
NDC1
Long-term low-carbon pathway
Ba...
Intended process for a long term strategy
 How will decarbonization and climate resilience agenda support the
countries socio-economic objectives from an LT-LEDs c...
Email: victor.osu@rea.gov.ng or victorrichard23@yahoo.com
Thank you!
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CCXG Oct 2019 2050 long-term emission development strategy for Nigeria: An investment and financial flow perspective - Victor Richard Osu

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CCXG Oct 2019 2050 long-term emission development strategy for Nigeria: An investment and financial flow perspective - Victor Richard Osu

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CCXG Oct 2019 2050 long-term emission development strategy for Nigeria: An investment and financial flow perspective - Victor Richard Osu

  1. 1. 2050 LONG-TERM EMISSION DEVELOPEMT STRATEGY FOR NIGERIA: AN INVESTMENT AND FINANCIAL FLOW (I&FF) PERSPECTIVE Dr. Victor Osu Climate Change Expert Forum – Paris, France October 1st – 2nd 2019
  2. 2. CONTENT OF THE PRESENTATION Background / Policy Alignment Implementation of NDC – An IF&F drive / start point Linking NDC and LT-LEDs? Intended process for LT development – challenges or opportunities? Nigeria’s NDC - A path towards LT-LEDs?
  3. 3. Background GLOBAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE ➢The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ➢Adopted in 1992 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held at Rio de Janeiro Brazil ➢The Kyoto Protocol in 2004 ➢ The Paris Agreement - adopted at COP21 in 2015 at Paris France ➢Katowice Rule Book – adopted at COP 24 in 2018 at Poland.
  4. 4. Nigeria’s Policy Alignment and Integration National Policy on Climate Change The Strategic Framework for Voluntary Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA ) The National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action (NASPA-CCN) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) LT LEDs?
  5. 5. Nigeria’s NDC at a Glance
  6. 6. Nigeria’s NDC is focusing on Mitigation & Adaptation Type of Mitigation contribution • Economy-wide mitigation targets • Reduction of emission from ‘business as usual” BAU Type of Mitigation contribution • Strategies, plans and actions for low GHG development across all sub- national development agenda. Type of Mitigation contribution • Sectoral, sub-sectoral reduction targets
  7. 7. Nigeria NDC implementation is focusing on the development of 5 Sectoral Section Plans. Power (On-grid power generation; Off-grid power generation Transpor t Agriculture Oil and GasIndustry
  8. 8. National Adaptation Strategy &plan of Action for Climate Change Nigeria SDGs NDC Sectoral Action Plan National Policy on Climate Change EGRP Nigeria Climate Resilience Pathways Climate Change implementa tion roadmap Nigerian Approach Gender Mainstreaming Private & Public Sector Engagement
  9. 9. NIGERIA’S NDC: EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS OF 20-45% BY 2030 IS A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT TOWARDS LT GROWTH PATHWAY With economic growth of 5% per year, emissions are expected to grow to about 900 million tonnes per year in 2030 Trajectory under Business-as-Usual Mitigation measures could reduce emissions by around 45% compared to business as usual Key Mitigation Measures MEASURE POTENTIAL GHG REDUCTION (million tonnes per year in 2030) Economy wide energy efficiency 179 Efficient gas power stations 102 Work towards ending of gas flaring 64 Climate smart agriculture 74 Reduce transmission losses 26 Renewable energy 31
  10. 10. ➢ Develop financial strategy for funding the country’s NDC sectoral climate action ➢ Increase private sector involvement in meeting the country’s NDC target either by participating in climate actions strategies and implementation within their current practices and LT –LEDs ➢ Establish a registry of adaptation and mitigation actions that are contributing to the achievement of NDC targets in order to start measuring progress ➢ Increase the visibility of the NDC through an effective communication strategy and a full integration in the SDG and LT-LEDs programme (net zero emission by 2050). Investment and Financial Flow (IF&F) Assessment for Implementing NDC – rationale
  11. 11. ➢ Use information on past & current Investment and Financial Flows from both public & private sector to establish future (climate action) scenarios on financial needs to implement climate action /programmatic measures and plan for LT-LEDs. ➢ The assessments not only look at full costs of climate - mitigation/adaptation - action/strategies, but support Nigeria determine disaggregated information on necessary investment sources & entities, as well as investment timing and policy options. ➢ Policy instruments that might be used to induce those entities to invest in the proposed measures and its potential impact on LT-LEDs ➢ Involves eight (8) key process / steps Investment and Financial Flow (IF&F) Assessment – concept and content
  12. 12. Steps in undertaking the I&FF
  13. 13. Sector 1 Team, e.g. energy Sector 2 Team, e.g. agriculture Sector 3 Team, e.g. oil and gas Project Management Unit (PMU) Sectoral team leader Sectoral team leader Sectoral team leader Mitigation expert(s) Energy expert(s) Finance expert(s) Economic/statistics expert(s) Govt/NGO/academic expert(s) Private sector expert(s) Adaptation expert(s) Agriculture expert(s) Finance expert(s) Economic/statistics expert(s) Govt/NGO/academic expert(s) Private sector expert(s) Adaptation expert(s) Oil and gas expert(s) Finance expert(s) Economic/statistics expert(s) Govt/NGO/academic expert(s) Private sector expert(s) IF&F Governance
  14. 14. Actions taken so far for IF&F assement:  Engage key ministries & identify key sectors – 2018 / 2019  Organize National Inter-Ministerial Dialogue – July 2019  Organize training on I&FF methodology – July 2019  Conduct I&FF assessments: Ongoing – August 2019 – February 2020  Project baseline scenario & mitigation/adaptation scenario  Cost scenarios: attributing Investment & Financial Flows to each activity: Information broken down to investment entities, years, activities.  Subtract values of baseline scenario from mitigation/adaptation scenario to identify necessary investment changes.  Develop policy recommendations on how to incentivize the necessary changes.  Conduct National Inter-Ministerial Dialogue.
  15. 15.  Paris Agreement – Article 4.19 (2015) - Conduct National Inter- Ministerial Dialogue: All parties should strive to formulate and communicate long term low GHG emission development strategies …  G20 – Climate and Energy Action Plan for growth (2017): … we recognize that long term low GHG emission development strategies may inform investment towards mainstreaming climate action with efforts to promote inclusive economic development  UN Secretary General Summit (2019) – Annoucements of countries to submit long term strategies with concrete steps and interim targets towards achieving net zero emission by 2050.
  16. 16. Long-term strategies – from long-term ambition to near-term changes Business-as-usual NDC1 Long-term low-carbon pathway Back-casting emissions GHGEMISSIONS TIME In accordance with Art. 4.1 of the Paris Agreement 2030 2040 2050 NDC2
  17. 17. Intended process for a long term strategy
  18. 18.  How will decarbonization and climate resilience agenda support the countries socio-economic objectives from an LT-LEDs context?  Thus, will it lead to comprehensive analysis of economic and sovial benefits and if yes;  What is the implication on global shift to low carbon economy – mid and long-term scenario reflecting fossil fuel sectoral changes  How do we now link back LT-LEDs to near term development policy  How do we set the process in motion including regular review of the LT-LEDs  Will it be an inclusive and deliberate process? Challenges or opportunities?
  19. 19. Email: victor.osu@rea.gov.ng or victorrichard23@yahoo.com Thank you!

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