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CCXG Oct 2019 2050 long-term emission development strategy for Nigeria: An investment and financial flow perspective - Victor Richard Osu
2050 LONG-TERM EMISSION DEVELOPEMT
STRATEGY FOR NIGERIA: AN INVESTMENT
AND FINANCIAL FLOW (I&FF) PERSPECTIVE
Dr. Victor Osu
Climate Change Expert Forum – Paris, France
October 1st – 2nd 2019
CONTENT OF THE PRESENTATION
Background / Policy Alignment
Implementation of NDC – An IF&F
drive / start point
Linking NDC and LT-LEDs?
Intended process for LT
development – challenges or
Nigeria’s NDC - A path towards
GLOBAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS
➢The United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
➢Adopted in 1992 at the United Nations
Conference on Environment and
Development held at Rio de Janeiro Brazil
➢The Kyoto Protocol in 2004
➢ The Paris Agreement - adopted at COP21
in 2015 at Paris France
➢Katowice Rule Book – adopted at COP 24 in
2018 at Poland.
Nigeria’s Policy Alignment and
National Policy on Climate Change
The Strategic Framework for Voluntary
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action
The National Adaptation Strategy
and Plan of Action (NASPA-CCN)
Contributions (NDC) LT LEDs?
Nigeria’s NDC is focusing on Mitigation &
• Economy-wide mitigation targets
• Reduction of emission from ‘business as
• Strategies, plans and actions for low GHG
development across all sub- national
• Sectoral, sub-sectoral reduction targets
Nigeria NDC implementation is focusing on the development of 5
Sectoral Section Plans.
Power (On-grid power generation; Off-grid
National Adaptation Strategy
&plan of Action for Climate
NDC Sectoral Action
National Policy on
Resilience Pathways Climate
Private & Public Sector Engagement
NIGERIA’S NDC: EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS OF 20-45% BY 2030 IS A
FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT TOWARDS LT GROWTH PATHWAY
With economic growth of 5%
per year, emissions are
expected to grow to about 900
million tonnes per year in 2030
Mitigation measures could
reduce emissions by around
45% compared to business as
Key Mitigation Measures
year in 2030)
Efficient gas power
Work towards ending
of gas flaring
Renewable energy 31
➢ Develop financial strategy for funding the country’s NDC sectoral
➢ Increase private sector involvement in meeting the country’s NDC target
either by participating in climate actions strategies and implementation
within their current practices and LT –LEDs
➢ Establish a registry of adaptation and mitigation actions that are
contributing to the achievement of NDC targets in order to start
➢ Increase the visibility of the NDC through an effective communication
strategy and a full integration in the SDG and LT-LEDs programme (net
zero emission by 2050).
Investment and Financial Flow (IF&F) Assessment for
Implementing NDC – rationale
➢ Use information on past & current Investment and Financial Flows
from both public & private sector to establish future (climate action)
scenarios on financial needs to implement climate action
/programmatic measures and plan for LT-LEDs.
➢ The assessments not only look at full costs of climate -
mitigation/adaptation - action/strategies, but support Nigeria
determine disaggregated information on necessary investment sources
& entities, as well as investment timing and policy options.
➢ Policy instruments that might be used to induce those entities to invest
in the proposed measures and its potential impact on LT-LEDs
➢ Involves eight (8) key process / steps
Investment and Financial Flow (IF&F) Assessment –
concept and content
Sector 1 Team, e.g.
Sector 2 Team, e.g.
Sector 3 Team, e.g. oil and
Project Management Unit (PMU)
Sectoral team leader Sectoral team leader Sectoral team leader
Private sector expert(s)
Private sector expert(s)
Oil and gas expert(s)
Private sector expert(s)
Actions taken so far for IF&F assement:
Engage key ministries & identify key sectors – 2018 / 2019
Organize National Inter-Ministerial Dialogue – July 2019
Organize training on I&FF methodology – July 2019
Conduct I&FF assessments: Ongoing – August 2019 – February
Project baseline scenario & mitigation/adaptation scenario
Cost scenarios: attributing Investment & Financial Flows to each activity:
Information broken down to investment entities, years, activities.
Subtract values of baseline scenario from mitigation/adaptation scenario to
identify necessary investment changes.
Develop policy recommendations on how to incentivize the necessary changes.
Conduct National Inter-Ministerial Dialogue.
Paris Agreement – Article 4.19 (2015) - Conduct National Inter-
Ministerial Dialogue: All parties should strive to formulate and
communicate long term low GHG emission development strategies …
G20 – Climate and Energy Action Plan for growth (2017): … we
recognize that long term low GHG emission development strategies
may inform investment towards mainstreaming climate action with
efforts to promote inclusive economic development
UN Secretary General Summit (2019) – Annoucements of countries to
submit long term strategies with concrete steps and interim targets
towards achieving net zero emission by 2050.
Long-term strategies – from long-term
ambition to near-term changes
Long-term low-carbon pathway
In accordance with Art. 4.1
of the Paris Agreement
2030 2040 2050
How will decarbonization and climate resilience agenda support the
countries socio-economic objectives from an LT-LEDs context?
Thus, will it lead to comprehensive analysis of economic and sovial
benefits and if yes;
What is the implication on global shift to low carbon economy – mid
and long-term scenario reflecting fossil fuel sectoral changes
How do we now link back LT-LEDs to near term development policy
How do we set the process in motion including regular review of the
Will it be an inclusive and deliberate process?
Challenges or opportunities?
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