1.
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
POLICIES TO FOSTER
RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE
87th APM Session – Item 5
Kelly Cobourn (kelly.COBOURN@oecd.org)

2.
Motivation
• Planned adaptation by governments can
strengthen agriculture’s resilience to adverse
climatic events by developing:
– Absorptive capacity: ability to cope with a
shock in the short run
– Adaptive capacity: ability to adjust in the
medium run through incremental
changes
– Transformative capacity: ability to create a
fundamentally new system in the long
run

3.
Example: kiwifruit in New Zealand
• Production
– Green (“Hayward”)
fruit
– Bay of Plenty region
• Challenges
– Reduced winter
chilling
– Delayed budbreak
– Yield loss
Vanneste et al. (2013)

4.
Example: kiwifruit in New Zealand
• Traditional approach: Hydrogen
Cynamide (HC) to stimulate
budbreak (absorptive capacity)
• Alternatives:
– Relocation further south
(transformative capacity)
– New cultivars with lower chilling
requirements (adaptive capacity)
– Trunk girdling, use of artificial
shelters above & below canopy
(adaptive capacity)
Kenny (2008)

5.
Objectives
1. Identify ways in which OECD member states are investing in
climate change adaptation programmes for agriculture
– To what extent are concerns about agriculture reflected in adaptation
planning?
– What vulnerabilities do current programmatic efforts target?
2. Determine how investments potentially support the development
of absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities

6.
Approach
• Stocktake of national-level adaptation programmes in OECD
member states
– Self-reported activities from UNFCCC reports (n = 69)
• Paris Agreement (NDCs, adaptation communications)
• National communications (ch. 6 or equivalent of 7th or most recent)
– Programmes specific to agriculture
• Mixed-methods qualitative content analysis

7.
Results: adaptation & resilience by document type
• All refer to adaptation
• Heterogeneity in extent of
discussion
– Annex I/Non-Annex I
– Document type
• References to resilience
relatively rare

8.
Results: agriculture by document type & context
• Agriculture most
discussed in national
communications
• Context varies with
document type
– NDCs: mitigation
– ACs: adaptation
– NCs: vulnerabilities,
adaptation

9.
Results: percent coverage adaptation vs. agriculture
• Weak positive correlation
between coverage of
adaptation and
agriculture
• Quadrants
– High ag, low adapt:
concern about ag
vulnerabilities
– Low ag, high adapt: well
developed programmes
but less coverage of
agriculture specifically
High ag,
low adapt
High ag,
high adapt
Low ag,
high adapt
Low ag,
low adapt

10.
Results: programmatic development
• Strength in aggregate to address key
vulnerabilities
– Water resources: management & planning
– Crop production: soil & nutrient management;
cultivar selection & breeding
– Decision support tools
• Areas with less specific programmatic
development
– Livestock production: heat stress; pasture quality
& yield
– Human capital: extension & outreach
– Pest & disease management

11.
Results
• Current programmes
emphasize adaptive capacity
• Emerging actions to support
transformative capacity
– Cultivate partnerships
– Collaborative planning
– Multidisciplinary research funding
– Decision-support tools for
transformative change in production
systems

12.
Conclusions
• Agricultural adaptation is addressed in UNFCCC documents; but
significant heterogeneity across countries
• Opportunities to enhance information sharing
– Depth of programme development in aggregate for water resources & crop
production
– Opportunities for greater investment in programming for livestock,
extension, pests & disease spread
• Greatest emphasis on adaptive capacity
– Discussion of transformative measures is more general/vague
– Future efforts may focus on addressing barriers to transformative change

13.
THANK YOU