On 10 July 2019, the OECD released the first Green Growth Policy Review of Indonesia. It examines progress towards sustainable development and green growth, with a special emphasis on the nexus of land use, ecosystems and climate change.
2. Main objectives of the GGPR
• Provide a diagnosis of the state of environment
• Help the Indonesian government evaluate
progress on green growth goals
• Identify and share good practices and
innovative solutions in Indonesia
• Identify most pressing challenges holding back
green growth
• Provide targeted policy recommendations
to overcome these
2
3. Economic growth has been
impressive
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2005=100
Real GDP in selected ASEAN countries, China and OECD, 2005-17
China (P.R.) Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand OECD
Source: OECD (2018), OECD National Accounts Statistics (database); World Bank (2018), World Development Indicators (database).
4. Decoupling of energy use and GHG
emissions from economic growth
40
80
120
160
200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2005=100
Source: OECD (2016), “Greenhouse gas emissions by source”, OECD Environment Statistics (database); MfE (2016) Inventory Submission to
the UNFCCC; OECD (2016), OECD National Accounts statistics (database).
GDP
GHG emissions
(excl. land use)
Total GHG
emissions
(incl. land use)
Energy supply
5. Indonesia is prone to natural
disasters
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
China
United States
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Viet Nam
Japan
Pakistan
Haiti
Mexico
Top 10 countries with the highest number of
reported natural disaster events
Climatological Geophysical Hydrological Meteorological
Source: CRED (2017), Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2016.
7. Air pollution is above WHO guidlines
7
9
6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
8 8
10 10 10 10 10
12 12 12 12 12
13 13 13
14 14
16 16 16 16 16 16 17
18
21 21 21
22
25 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mean population exposure to PM2.5
OECD and BRIICS countries (2016), µg/m3
53
WHO guideline value
90
Source: IEA (2018), IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances (database).
8. Selected recommendations
• Continue to develop air quality
monitoring systems
• Make information on air emissions
publicly available & develop a national
emissions inventory
• Update standards for industries
8
10. Waste management remains a
challenge
Landfilled
66%
Not
managed
20%
Composted
7%
Waste
bank
2%
Other
5%
Waste management in urban
areas, 2016
Source: MEF (2017), Peran Pemerintah Daerah Dalam Pelaksanaan Mitigasi Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca Sektor Limbah [The role of the regional
government in the implementation of GHG reduction targets in the waste sector], presentation, Jakarta 24 August 2017.
47%
53%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Status of landfills, 2017
Controlled landfills
Open-dump landfills
11. Selected recommendations
• Close open dumps and expand public
waste services to 100% of the
population
• Strengthen enforcement to ensure that
the environmental standards are met in
the landfills
• Implement extended producer
responsibility
11
13. Access to water and sanitation is
improving
13
0
20
40
60
80
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
%ofhouseholds
Access to improved water sources and sanitation, 2006-17
Improved sources of drinking, bathing and cooking water Improved sanitation services
Source: BPS (2018), Environmental Pillar: Indicators of Sustainable Development 2018.
14. Selected recommendations
• Develop long-term strategies to ensure
water security
• Enhance monitoring of groundwater levels
and enforcement of permits.
• Enhance water pollution prevention and
mitigation by improving sanitation facilities
and expanding centralised sewerage
networks in metropolitan areas
14
16. Indonesia plays an important role in
addressing climate change
Note: GHG emissions include emissions and removals from land use, land-use change and forestry.
Source: CAIT Climate Data Explorer, Country Greenhouse Gas Emissions, World Resources Institute. MoEF (2018), Laporan
Inventarisasi Gas Rumah Kaca dan MRV Nasional 2017 [GHG Inventory Report and National MRV 2017].
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
GHG emissions, top 20 world's emitters,
2014 and change in 2000-14
17. GHG emissions are on the rise
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mt CO2 eq
GHG emissions by sector (2000-16) and targets
Energy Industrial processes
Agriculture Waste
Forestry and other land use Peat fires
BAU
2020
BAU
2030
-26%
- 41%
- 29%
- 41%
BAU
-29%
-41%
Source: Ministry of Environment and Forestry (2018), Laporan Inventarisasi Gas Rumah Kaca dan MRV Nasional 2017 [GHG Inventory Report
and National MRV 2017].
18. 18
The electricity mix relies on coal,
increasing GHG emissions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Korea
Indonesia
Australia
Estonia
Mexico
SaudiArabia
Netherlands
China
Israel
SouthAfrica
OECD
Japan
CzechRepublic
Germany
UnitedStates
Poland
Finland
Russia
Italy
SlovakRepublic
Ireland
Greece
Chile
Belgium
Spain
Turkey
Hungary
Argentina
Slovenia
Luxembourg
France
Austria
Switzerland
Denmark
UnitedKingdom
Brazil
NewZealand
Latvia
Canada
India
Sweden
Portugal
Norway
Iceland
gofCO2/kWh
Carbon intensity of electricity production, OECD and G20 countries, 2017
Source: IEA (2018), IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances (database).
19. 19
Investment in renewables needs to
accelerate
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
%
Share of renewables in primary energy supply (2007-25)
Biofuel Geothermal Hydropower Total renewables
Note: Excludes energy supply of biomass (mainly firewood and charcoal) and negligible quantities of solar and wind energy.
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (2018), Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics of Indonesia 2017.
Projected increase based
on past growth rates
Increase needed to
reach target
Target: 23%
21. 21
There is room for better use of
environmental taxes
1.6%
0.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
% of GDP
Revenue from environmentally related taxes,
selected emerging economies, 2016
Source: OECD (2018), OECD calculations based on OECD Environment Statistics (database).
22. Most GHG emissions from energy use
face no carbon price
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CHE
LUX
NOR
FRA
GBR
IRL
ISL
SVN
NLD
KOR
GRC
ITA
AUT
ESP
DNK
DEU
FIN
PRT
SVK
SWE
BEL
CAN
ISR
HUN
LVA
POL
MEX
JPN
CZE
EST
TUR
USA
NZL
ARG
AUS
CHL
IND
ZAF
CHN
BRA
IDN
RUS
Carbon pricing gap at EUR 30 in 2015, OECD and G20 countries
Note: The carbon pricing gap measures how much countries fall short fall short of pricing CO2 emissions in line with a benchmark value for carbon
prices of EUR 30 (a low-end estimate of the climate damage from 1 tonne of CO2 emissions). Data refer to CO2 emissions from energy use only.
Source: OECD (2018), Effective Carbon Rates; IEA (2018), IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Statistics (database).
86% of CO2 emissions
from energy use face are
not priced
23. Great progress in reducing subsidies
for fossil fuel consumption…
3.6%
0.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
IDR trillion
Government expenditure on energy consumption subsidies
Electricity LPG Kerosene Diesel Petrol
* Planned budget.
Source: Government of Indonesia (2017), Country submission to the G20 Fossil Fuel Subsidies Reform Initiative.
% of GDP
25. • 10-15% of global flora and fauna
• One of the world’s largest tropical
forests
• 20% of mangroves
• 20% of coral reefs
One of the world’s most biodiverse
countries
25
26. Deforestation is high, but declining
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
million ha
Ten countries with the largest average annual reduction in
forest cover
2010-15 2005-10
Source: FAO (2018), FAOSTAT (database).
27. Deforestation has decreased since 2015
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million ha
Net deforestation in Indonesia, 2012-17
-56%
Source: OECD (2018), OECD calculations based on OECD Environment Statistics (database).
28. Protected areas need to expand to
reach the Aichi target
Source: OECD (2018), "Biodiversity: Protected areas", OECD Environment Statistics (database).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
% of
territory
Terrestrial protected areas in
selected G20 countries, 2018
Aichi target
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
% of the
EEZ
Marine protected areas in selected
G20 countries, 2018
Aichi target
Welcome and thanks
Dear friends, good morning.
It is a great pleasure for me be here this morning to launch the OECD Green Growth Policy Review of Indonesia. On behalf of the OECD, I would like to extend a warm welcome to all you of you. And I would like to express our gratitude and thanks to those of you who have participated in the development of this report – a process of nearly two years!
The fact that we have gathered high-level presentatives and experts of so many different ministries (MoEF, Finance, BAPPENAS, MENKO) showcases what we consider to be at the heart of green growth: to integrate environmental considerations into all economic sectors and spheres of government. The integration of environmental goals in Indonesia’s national development plans and the Ministry of Finance’s engagement in green finance are good practices that other countries can learn from.
Please allow me to present to you the key messages that emerge from the GGPR, before we entre into discussion of some specific items.
For those of you who are less familiar with the OECD: The OECD is a forum where countries can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co‑ordinate domestic and international policies.
In this spirit, the GGPR’s objectives are to:
Provide a diagnosis of Indonesia’s state of environment (areas covered: climate change, air quality, water management, waste management, biodiversity protection, and integration of environmental concerns into economic sectors)
Help the Indonesian government evaluate progress in achieving its environmental and green growth goals
Identify good practices and innovative tools used in Indonesia and share these with other countries facing similar challenges
Identify the most pressing challenges holding back economic and environmental performance
Provide concrete and targeted policy recommendations to help Indonesia achieve its sustainable development goals
Allow me to share with you some of the main takeaways from the review.
[Note: Could be dropped]
Two decades after the Asian Financial Crisis, Indonesia’s economy is larger, stronger and more inclusive than ever before.
GDP grew at 5% annually, lifting millions of people out of poverty.
Indonesia has decoupled some environmental pressures from economic growth: Between 2005 and 2016, GHG emissions and energy supply have grown at a slower pace than GDP.
However, environmental pressures remain high in Indonesia. Energy demand and GHG emissions will continue to rise in absolute terms with economic and population growth. Air pollution is above international guidelines; clean freshwater is becoming scarcer; and pollution and land use change are putting under pressures on Indonesia’s unique biodiversity. Transport, waste, and water infrastructure has not kept pace with the rapid population growth and urbanisation. These pressures create high environmental, economic and health costs, especially for the vulnerable and poor.
At the OECD, we also like to plot other environmental indicators on this chart, for instance air emissions, water and material consumption and waste generation. However, data on these dimensions are generally limited in Indonesia. While we recognize that there have been important improvement, the GGPR urges Indonesia to keep investing in the collection, harmonization and analysis of environmental data. It is the first step for informed decision making and evaluation of the effectiveness of public policies.
Indonesia is also among the countries in the world with the highest risk from environmental hazards and climate change impacts.
This highlights the need to put resilient, low-emission infrastructure at the heart of Indonesia’s sustainable growth strategy.
COVER
Air pollution
The average population exposure to air pollution is lower than in many other emerging economies (marked in dark blue), but it is still above the WHO guideline value.
Indonesia made progress in addressing air pollution, for instance by adopting the EURO 4 standards for passenger vehicles. Cities like Jakarta have seen massive investment in public transport and introduction of traffic management policies (such as the odd-even system, car-free days). Data collection has considerably improved, with about 40 cities now having permanent monitoring stations.
However, the country is missing a comprehensive and systematic air emission inventory; air emission standards for certain stationary sources (e.g. coal power plants) are low by international comparison and enforcement of standards needs to be improved.
The GGPR therefore recommends to:
Continue to expand monitoring systems for air quality
Make information on air emissions publicly available & work towards a national emissions inventory
Update standards for large industries
COVER
Indonesia has a good legal basis for sound waste management. But more efforts are needed to put these into reality.
20% of urban solid waste is not collected and managed. Nearly half of landfills are open/uncontrolled dumps, a number which is however declining. Needless to say, this creates significant air, soil and water pollution that comes at high environmental, health and economic costs.
The GGPR welcomes Indonesia’s initiatives to improve its waste management, including the scaling up of “waste banks”. This is an innovative tool that will be interesting for other emerging and developing economies.
The GGPR welcomes the new National Solid Waste Management Policy and Strategy, which aims to reduce waste generation by 30% by 2025 and to properly manage the remainder, and recommends to implement it with priority.
COVER
Access to improved water and sanitation improved steadily.
But, the expansion of water supply and sewerage networks has not kept pace with population growth and urbanisation. This, combined with pollution of surface waters, has forced people to rely on groundwater, leading to over-extraction in several areas.
The water quality of rivers and lakes is poor and has declined over the past decade. Half of Java’s rivers are considered polluted or heavily polluted.
Indonesia is among the world’s largest GHG emitters and has seen a relatively large increase in emissions since the turn of the century (both is shown on the chart). It therefore plays an important role in addressing global warming.
Emissions increased by 42% since 2000 and, under a BAU scenario, will growth even faster in the coming decade.
Indonesia has set GHG emission reduction target for 2020 and 2030 and it put in place several elements of an integrated framework for climate change to achieve them:
A remarkable achievement is the integration of climate change in the national development plan and notably the development of Indonesia’s first “low-carbon development plan” for 2020-24;
Indonesia also introduced budget tagging for climate change in 2015; and
launched initiatives to leverage climate finance, for example through green bonds.
I am sure we will hear more about these important initiatives during the discussion this morning.
Thanks to its policies put in place, Indonesia is on track to achieve its 2020 target. However, The GGPR warns that more efforts are needed to meet the 2030 target, particularly in the two sectors that account for the bulk of emissions: i) energy and ii) land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).
Indonesia’s power mix is one of the most carbon-intensive among OECD and G20 economies (and actually in the world).
This stresses the importance of accelerating the decarbonisation of power supply, especially in light of the rapidly growing demand for electricity.
Plans to raise coal use significantly to meet growing energy demand put coherence with climate change objectives into question.
The GGPR therefore calls for better alignment energy policy with climate change objectives.
It calls for targets and a strategy to reduce the carbon intensity of the energy sector.
-----
The development of Indonesia’s first “low-carbon development plan” for 2020-24 is an opportunity to achieve better policy alignment. It is an important endeavour that will hopefully inspire other fast-growing economies.
Indonesia has a large potential for renewable energy and set an ambitious target: to source 23% of energy supply from renewables by 2025.
However, current investment levels are low by international comparison. As you can see on the chart, a step increase is needed if Indonesia is to reach its 23% target.
The GGPR therefore calls for a comprehensive, transparent and achievable plan to accelerate the development of renewables.
----
Overall, we have seen that public investment in the green economy has increased considerably. Indonesia’s “budget tagging system” has shown that 5.4% of the state budget supported the green economy in 2018. While this is a success story, the GGPR highlights that more needs to be done to leverage private sector investment in the green economy.
Water, sanitation and waste management remains severely underfunded. Service charges and tariffs are often kept down out of affordability concerns, but this has discouraged investment in service expansion and improvement. The GGPR suggests that service fees should be raised, at least for those who can afford it.
One of the GGPR’s key messages is that better use of green taxes and cost-reflective pricing of services would make the green transition more cost-effective.
Revenue from environmentally related taxes reached 0.8% of GDP, a relatively low share compared to OECD countries and other emerging economies.
Most of this revenue stems from vehicle taxation (while transport fuel taxes account for the greatest part of environmentally related tax revenue in most OECD and G20 countries). In Indonesia, energy taxation is particularly low.
Energy prices are well below their true costs, due to a combination of low energy taxes and fossil fuel subsidies. This not only discourages energy savings, it also makes it hard for renewables to compete with fossil fuels.
This slide shows the carbon pricing gap, an indicator developed by the OECD that shows how much countries fall short fall short of pricing CO2 emissions at EUR 30 (= the low-end benchmark of the climate damage from 1 tonne of CO2 emissions). You can see that Indonesia’s carbon pricing gap is the second largest among OECD and G20 countries. Only 86% of total energy use in Indonesia faces a carbon price; and those 14% that are prices, face a relatively low price
The review recommends to move towards more cost-reflective energy pricing that reflect the true cost of energy use. More concretely, this implies raising transport fuel taxes and introducing energy taxes or an explicit carbon price for other sectors. The GGPR recommends Indonesia to implement an explicit carbon price, even if at low levels. This should go hand in hand with the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies – an area in which Indonesia has already made grade progress in recent years.
This slides shows how expenditure for fossil fuel consumption subsidies have declined. This is an area that Indonesia is to be commended for.
However, you can see that subsidies went up again in 2018 and 2019.
The GGPR encourages Indonesia to follow its success in 2015 and 2016 and continue to reduce energy consumption subsidies, which mostly benefit the rich. Social policies are better placed to support poor households than energy subsidies.
Indonesia’s biodiversity is of global importance. Ten to fifteen percent of global flora and fauna, one of the world’s largest tropical forests, 20% of mangroves and 20% of coral reefs are home to Indonesia.
However, its ecosystems face pressures from habitat loss due to deforestation and forest degradation, pollution, over-exploitation and climate change.
The expansion of agriculture and timber plantations (legal and illegal) has been a major source of habitat loss.
Between 2005 and 2015, Indonesia has lost 7% of its forests (which adds up to the size of the United Kingdom). This is the second largest area in absolute terms, after Brazil.
However, there a positive signs: deforestation dropped by half since a peak in 2015.
Protected areas cover 12% of land area, and 2% of marine area – below the respective Aichi targets of 17% and 10%.
As in many countries, protected areas are often fragmented. Effective biodiversity conservation in protected areas is hampered by insufficient funding and capacity gaps.
The GGPR congratulates Indonesia for the steps it has taken to address the issues that have historically hampered more sustainable land use.
A key policy is the adoption of moratoriums to slow conversion of peatland to agriculture, which as you know, is one of the main sources of GHG emissions and a driver of biodiversity loss.
We also welcome the increased resources and better inter-agency collaboration and the increased resources allocated to monitor and enforce laws related to forestry.
Institutional reforms, such as the establishment of Forest Management Units, are helping improve forest management at the site level
The One Map initiative is a key step to clarify the legal status of land, a major barrier to sustainable land management in the past.
The Social Forestry programme is helping improve community access to land.
All these are important initiatives. Looking forwards, it will be important to monitor these programmes to ensure that they lead to more sustainable management on the ground. It is a question of securing sufficient financial and human resources to build capacity, align sector policies and effectively co‑ordinate action across government levels.
The GGPR recognizes the establishment of the Environmental Fund Management Agency as an important step in accessing the USD 1 billion, which Norway has pledged to support reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). We believe that this Fund can act a an important player in establishing carbon markets, and to make it economically attractive for people and businesses to preserve the natural capital they own or use.
To conclude, Indonesia has significant opportunities for accelerating the transition towards a low-carbon, greener and more inclusive economy.
We hope the evaluation and the recommendations in this report will help Indonesia develop a shared vision and a comprehensive green growth strategy for a low-carbon economy. Indonesia’s impressive economic performance over the last 20 years leaves no-one in any doubt that it knows how to generate solid economic growth. The question for the next quarter century is whether it will be able to continue to deliver that growth in a way that protects its natural asset base.
OECD stands ready to support Indonesia in the implementation of the recommendations outlined in this review.
I look forward to open and lively fruitful discussion.