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Republic of Lithuania                                                   Ministry of Energy




     Ignalina NPP Closure and Decommissioning

                         Meeting the Cost




                        Decommissioning Funding Group – 16 March 2011
…   the decommissioning of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant with

two 1500 MW RBMK-type reactor units inherited from the former

    Soviet Union is of an unprecedented nature and represents for

     Lithuania an exceptional financial burden not commensurate

            with the size and economic strength of the country …




                                          Accession Treaty, Protocol 4
Republic of Lithuania                                                      Ministry of Energy




 Plant Overview
• Largest and most
                                               Plant Type             RBMK-1500
  advanced RBMK design
  (also with later safety                      Number of units        2 (of 4 planned)




                                   Basics
  upgrading)                                   Power per unit         1250 MWe
                                               Nearest settlement     Visaginas
• Intended to serve NW
                                               Staff in 2011          2000 (approx.)
  region of Soviet Union
                                                                          Unit 1          Unit 2
• Supplied 70-80% of LT            Operation   First operation          Dec 1983         Aug 1987
  national demand                              Final closure            Dec 2004         Dec 2009

• Closed at around mid-life                    Load factor
                                                                          45.5%           57.4%
                                               (since independence)
• Low load factor
    (lack of consumers in 1990s)
Republic of Lithuania                                   Ministry of Energy




 Impact on National Energy Supply

                        2007                                           2010




                               Primary Energy Sources
Republic of Lithuania                                                                                  Ministry of Energy




   Impact on National Energy Supply
                           Export

                                                      EE   GB   DK   AT   SE   NL   SK   GR   PT   NI   IT   HU   FI   LV   IE   LU   LT
    LT     SI   CZ   BG   FR   RO ES   DE   BE   PL
    2009




                                                                                         Import



                                 Import/Export of Electricity Supply for EU Countries (2010)


Source:         ENTSO-E (European Network of
                Transmission System Operators for Electricity)
Republic of Lithuania           Ministry of Energy




 Strategic initiatives: electricity
Republic of Lithuania         Ministry of Energy




 Strategic initiatives: natural gas
Republic of Lithuania                            Ministry of Energy




 Impact on Visaginas
 • Purpose-built town (pop. ~30,000)
 • Wholly reliant on INPP
 • Largely Russian-speaking with poor
   socio-economic integration
 • Hard-hit by closure
       – reduction of employment opportunities
       – loss of status
       – massive rises in heating prices
 • Ministry of Energy funding social
   mitigation measures
 • PHARE study estimated 440 m Euro in
   social costs for best-case scenario
Republic of Lithuania                                            Ministry of Energy




 Decommissioning Strategy
  Immediate Dismantling

  Advantage                                   Drawback

  Use of existing workforce:                  Costs incurred earlier
  (a) social mitigation (b) staff knowledge   Higher radiation levels

  Use of operational infrastructure

  Defined regulatory framework

  Better cost definition

  No legacy to future generations
Republic of Lithuania                                           Ministry of Energy




 RBMK plant decommissioning




 Technical difficulties:   •   huge primary masses of buildings
                           •   large proportion of contaminated masses
                           •   large volumes of operational waste
                           •   irradiated graphite – no established disposal method
Republic of Lithuania                                                                                   Ministry of Energy




 Comparison with Greifswald NPP (1)
                                                                                                  6 x 440 MWe VVER
             Greifswald NPP                            Ignalina NPP


          Operational Solid Waste                                         15,000 m3
     (to be retrieved and managed)
                                                                                                             30,000 m3

       Operational Spent Resins            2,000 m3
                (for cementation)
                                                  5,800 m3

      Required Spent Fuel Casks                              61
              (for interim storage)
                                                                                                               190 (additional)


                                                                     59%
   Steel from Equipt. Dismantling                                                                  116,000 tons
                     contaminated
                                                                                                          130,000 tons
                                                                                                  91%
                                       Steel    2,660 tons
         Reactor Core Structures
                                       Steel    Graphite          Shielding (serpentine / sand)           17,100 tons
                                      2,300 t    3,800 t                        11,000 t
Republic of Lithuania                                         Ministry of Energy




 Comparison with Greifswald NPP (2)
  •   International experience exists in dismantling pressurised water reactors
  •   Ignalina NPP is pioneering the immediate dismantling of an RBMK
        more difficult to define technology and costs




                 Smaller reactor size
            permits integral removal
          and storage of main vessel

             Not possible for RBMK
Republic of Lithuania                                                                                      Ministry of Energy




     Overall schedule
Opening waste
                                              ISFSF
  management
         routes
                                                    SWMSF
      (Design &
   construction)                                    Landfill Facility

                                                           Near Surface Repository



                                     Fuel in core            Fuel in pools               Fuel fully removed

       Unit 1                   Post-operation
                   Operation
    activities                                          Dismantling & Decontamination


                                                        Fuel in core    Fuel in pools    Fuel fully removed

       Unit 2                                          Post-operation
                           Operation
    activities                                                          Dismantling & Decontamination




 General site                       Site Operation & Maintenance                                                  D&D      Demolition
   activities


                               2001-2010                                     2011-2020                               2021-2030
Republic of Lithuania                                                                Ministry of Energy




     Sequence of starting dismantling


                             2

                                                                        5




                                            6
                                 3                           4


                     1




1.   emergency core cooling system water storage tanks (Building 117)
2.   turbine generators with auxiliary systems, feed facilities and heat supply facilities (Block G)
3.   reactor gas circuit and special venting system (Block V)
4.   low salt water and main coolant circuit bypass water treatment facilities (Block B)
5.   control room, electrical equipment and deaerator (Block D) heat pipe service / fire fighting (Unit 1 only)
6.   reactor building (Block A)
Republic of Lithuania                            Ministry of Energy




 Current Status
 • Dismantling outside units since 2009
      (e.g. service water pump house)

 • Dismantling unit facilities since 2010
      (Unit 1 emergency core cooling system)

 • 2 major facilities in construction
       (a) Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility
       (b) Solid Waste Management &
           Storage Facility

 • 2 major facilities under design
       – Landfill (constructing Buffer Store)
       – Near Surface Repository
Republic of Lithuania                                            Ministry of Energy




 Decommissioning Costs
 Methodology
 • Simplified “Global Decommissioning Programme”
       – based on Final Decommissioning Plan
       – takes account of activities performed up to now
       – fully up-to-date and consistent with current planning
       – enables long-term cost factoring

 • Macroeconomic study
       – performed by chief economist of leading commercial bank
       – focussed on parameters relevant to decommissioning
           (general inflation, energy costs, labour costs)
Republic of Lithuania                                          Ministry of Energy




 Adjustments applied (1)
   General inflation
                                         Consumer Price Index (normalised to 2002)




    • Since 2002 (preparation of Final Decommissioning Plan) = ~30%
    • Forecast for 2012 to 2029 (annual rate of 2.5 to 3.2%) = ~110%
Republic of Lithuania                         Ministry of Energy




    Adjustments applied (2)
    Energy prices                         %

•   Broadly based study based
    on several sources:
     –   International Energy Agency
     –   EC DG ENER
     –   Russian Ministry of Energy
     –   EPRI
     –   World Nuclear Association
•   Adapted to specific
    circumstances of Lithuania
     –   existing situation
     –   strategic initiative in energy
         sector (e.g. interconnections
         and new nuclear)
Republic of Lithuania                                                    Ministry of Energy




 Adjustments applied (3)
   Wages and salaries
                                         Average of public and private sector salaries (Litas)
     2600
     2400
     2200
     2000
     1800
     1600
     1400
     1200
     1000
         2002       2003   2004   2005        2006       2007       2008       2009       2010

    • Significant rise in salaries since 2002
    • Forecast for 2012 to 2029: from 7%, slowing to 5% in later years
Republic of Lithuania                                                                Ministry of Energy




Breakdown by Generic Activities
                                            Final Site
      Total cost:
                                            Clearance      Preparatory Actions
     2290 m Euro                               5%                  4%
    (at 2011 prices)                                                      Fuel Removal
                                                                               9%
                                                     110    100
                       General Site                  m€     m€
                        Operation                                 210m€           Post-operation
                          27%                                                           9%

                                                                     200m€
                                          610m€



                                                                   550m€
                                                510m€
                                                                                 D&D
                                                                                 24%


                                       Waste
                                      Removal
                                        22%
Republic of Lithuania                                                 Ministry of Energy




 Breakdown by Generic Costs
                             Other Investments &
                                Procurements
        Total cost:              38% (2011)                     Adjustments
       2290 m Euro
      (at 2011 prices)                                          (2012-2029)


                                   870m€                                      Staffing
                                                                 +160m€       23% (adjusted)



                                                     450m€                    Energy
          Major          640m€                                   +150m€       17% (adjusted)
         Facilities
        28% (2011)                                                            Major Facilities,
                                                                              Investments &
                                                                 +140m€       Procurements
                                 320m€     460m€
                                                                              60% (adjusted)


                                                     Staffing
                           Energy                  20% (2011)
                         14% (2011)
Republic of Lithuania                                                                               Ministry of Energy




 Ignalina NPP Staffing

             4600
                      3900


                                       2800                                             Staff attributable to the cost of
                                                                                        post-operation and dismantling
                                                      2250
                                              2000                2000
                                                                          1800
                                                                                             1400
                                                                                                     1100

                          500          600                                                                      500


          2001-2003        2004-2009          2010-2012    2013-2016             2017-2023          2024-2026 2027-2029


                 Unit 1             Unit 2         New          End of                End of unit     End of    End of
               closure            closure         skills     defuelling              dismantling     all D&D demolition
Republic of Lithuania                                     Ministry of Energy




 Energy costs

    25 m Euro
                             Electricity                        Heat & Gas
    20 m Euro


    15 m Euro


    10 m Euro


     5 m Euro




                  2011                     320 m Euro  460 m Euro
                  Adjusted                   (2011)      (adjusted)
Republic of Lithuania                                             Ministry of Energy




   Major Facilities




Facility:                  ISFSF         SWMSF          Landfill               NSR

Status:                  Construction   Construction     Design               Design
                                                       (Buffer Store
                                                       Construction)


Cost:                    200 m Euro     120 m Euro     30 m Euro           290 m Euro


                                                        TOTAL             640 m Euro
Republic of Lithuania                                                               Ministry of Energy



 Other investments & procurements
                                Field                           Cost to 2011   Cost 2012-2029     TOTAL
 Reliable heat & steam supply after closure (B5)                  40 m Euro        0 m Euro       40 m Euro

 Projects derived from the Final Decommissioning Plan
 Projects B6-B36 excl. D&D consultancy (B9), Reactor              25 m Euro       85 m Euro      110 m Euro
 Dismantling equipt. (B30), PMU (B31) and Melting Unit (B18†)

 Reactor Dismantling Related Investments (B30, B37, B38)           0 m Euro       40 m Euro       40 m Euro

 Consultancy Services
                                                                  40 m Euro        5 m Euro       45 m Euro
 (IIDSF PMU - B31)

 D&D Consultancy (B9)                                             15 m Euro        5 m Euro       20 m Euro

 Physical Protection and Fire Service Cover                       10 m Euro      100 m Euro      110 m Euro

 Site infrastructure for decommissioning                          10 m Euro       15 m Euro       25 m Euro

 Dismissal compensation, low price contracts, training,
 insurance, business travel, etc.                                 55 m Euro       40 m Euro       95 m Euro
 (Costs now paid from National Decommissioning Fund)

 Support of post-operation                                        10 m Euro       45 m Euro       55 m Euro

 Support of D&D implementation                                     0 m Euro      220 m Euro      220 m Euro

 Final clean up of buildings, demolition and site restoration      0 m Euro      110 m Euro      110 m Euro

                     TOTAL (at 2011 prices)                     205 m Euro      665 m Euro      870 m Euro
Republic of Lithuania                                                                      Ministry of Energy




 Major Exclusions (1)
 Direct Costs of Ignalina NPP Decommissioning

 Field                     Exclusion                                              Justification
                                                                                  No technical solution currently
 Graphite                  All final disposal costs
                                                                                  available

                                                                                  No technical solution currently
                           All final disposal costs
                                                                                  available
 Spent nuclear fuel
                           All costs of physical protection and surveillance
                                                                                  Long-term cost
                           beyond 2029

                           All costs of physical protection and surveillance of
 Radioactive waste                                                                Long-term cost
                           storages and repositories beyond 2029

                           All costs associated with divestment of non-
 Divestment                                                                       Not currently quantified
                           decommissioning activities of Ignalina NPP

                           All costs associated with the operation of
 Regulatory institutions                                                          Not currently quantified
                           regulatory institutions for decommissioning
Republic of Lithuania                                                                     Ministry of Energy




 Major Exclusions (2)
 Indirect Costs of Ignalina NPP Decommissioning

 Field                  Exclusion                                           Justification

                        Unemployment benefits, social support,              Not currently quantified. PHARE Study
 Local impact           mitigation and redevelopment measures in            estimated social costs of 440 m Euro at
                        Visaginas                                           2001 prices.


                        Loss of revenue to the State Budget                 Not currently quantified


 National impact
                        Economic impact of loss of industrial
                                                                            Not currently quantified
                        competiveness due to increased electricity prices
Republic of Lithuania                                                                           Ministry of Energy




 Assumptions
  Field                    Assumption                                  Justification

                                                                       GDP was built-up from estimates developed and refined
                           Global Decommissioning Plan (GDP)           successively in successive planning documents (PDP,
 Overall decommissioning
                           has identified all possible costs           FDP, U1DP0, etc.). GDP accounts for real costs over
                                                                       2000-2010 and further development of ongoing projects.

                                                                       FDP concluded that dismantling of reactors is possible
 Reactor dismantling
                           GDP assumes immediate dismantling           and foresees long-term interim storage of associated
                                                                       “orphan” waste.

                           Rises in salaries, energy costs and other
                                                                       Macroeconomic study commissioned by Ministry of
 Macroeconomic             prices do not exceed the values
                                                                       Energy based on best available data.
                           presented
Republic of Lithuania                                                                        Ministry of Energy




 Risks
  Field                            Risk                                      Quantification of impact

 Design & Build Major Investment   Additional works, changes in regulatory             20% (60 m Euro approx.)
 Projects (ongoing)                requirements                              Excludes indirect impact of any further delays.

 Build-only Major Investment       Additional works, changes in regulatory
                                                                                       15% (50 m Euro approx.)
 Projects (planned)                requirements

                                   Revisions of scope and unforeseeable
 Reactor dismantling                                                                   50% (20 m Euro approx.)
                                   variations

                                   Upgrading of interim storage into long-                50 m Euro (approx.)
                                   term near surface disposal (foreseen in
 Bitumized waste                                                               14,000 m3 to be retrieved conditioned and
                                   GDP based on preliminary study) is not
                                   possible.                                              disposed of in NSR

 Other Investments derived
                                   Revisions of scope and unforeseeable
 from Final Decommissioning                                                            10% (10 m Euro approx.)
                                   variations
 Plan

                                                                     Total           190 m Euro (approx.)


 Other?
Republic of Lithuania                                                                                   Ministry of Energy



 Comparison with Greifswald NPP (3)
             Greifswald NPP                              Ignalina NPP

          Operational Solid Waste                                         15,000 m3
     (to be retrieved and managed)
                                                                                                             30,000 m3

       Operational Spent Resins            2,000 m3
                (for cementation)
                                                  5,800 m3

      Required Spent Fuel Casks                              61
              (for interim storage)
                                                                                                               190 (additional)


                                                                     59%
   Steel from Equipt. Dismantling                                                                  116,000 tons
                     contaminated
                                                                                                          130,000 tons
                                                                                                  91%
                                       Steel    2,660 tons
         Reactor Core Structures
                                       Steel    Graphite          Shielding (serpentine / sand)           17,100 tons
                                      2,300 t    3,800 t                        11,000 t



                                                                                         3.2 billion Euro
               Decommissioning
               Funding Identified                     1.4 billion Euro
Republic of Lithuania                                                      Ministry of Energy




 Resources: EU & international

          1999 - 2003      2004 - 2006                   2007 - 2013
             210 m€               320 m€                                       837 m€


                                                                   2011                    2013
         IIDSF interest: 50 m€                     EU: 995.5 m€             EU: 1367 m€
        Bilateral donors: 33 m€                 Total: 1078.5 m€          Total: 1450 m€




 • Legal basis of IIDSF and Ignalina Programme (from Accession
   Treaty) include decommissioning and consequential measures in
   the energy sector
 • Relevant to examine use of funds to date:
       – proportion of funding in each sector
       – current funding available
Republic of Lithuania                                                      Ministry of Energy




 Resources: EU & international
                               Unallocated 10%

                        Administration 1%    111m
                           10 m Euro                               Energy Sector 29%
                                             Euro


                                                         306.5 m
                                                          Euro


                                                 651 m
                                                  Euro

                           Decommissioning
                                60%
                                                                   Total: 1078.5 m Euro
Republic of Lithuania                                                  Ministry of Energy




 National Decommissioning Fund
 • Limited by:                                                                  Social
                                         Unallocated
       –   Soviet period                    28%
                                                                               Mitigation
                                                                                 18%
       –   safety power reduction                                 29 m Euro
                                                     45 m Euro
       –   low load factor
       –   early closure
                                                                        32 m Euro       Energy
 • Former funding                   Administration                                      Sector
                                                                                         20%
       – levy on INPP electricity   4% (6 m Euro)            49 m Euro
        no present income

 • Future funding                                    Decommissioning
                                                          30%
       – surcharge on electricity
         sales (also limited)
Republic of Lithuania                           Ministry of Energy




 Other national sources

 • Ignalina NPP own resources
       – present cash assets: 100 m Euro

       – future sales of materials: 30 m Euro

 • State Budget
       – taxes and ineligible income costs

        460 m Euro to 2029 (at 20% tax)
Republic of Lithuania                                                                        Ministry of Energy




     Conclusion
Resources
                                                             1450 m Euro        FUNDING GAP                    2740 m Euro
                                                                                                               (adjusted)
        EU and international donors until 2013   Lithuania                       1290 m Euro
             650m€              480m€ (max)       320m€                          1480 m Euro


               700m€                                              2040m€                                       190m€

       Direct costs to 2011                 Future direct costs 2012 to 2029                                    Risk
                                2011                                            2290 m Euro              2930 m Euro
Direct Costs                                                                   (2011 prices)      (adjusted incl. risk)




 •    Costs well-founded (cf. FDP & Greifswald) but significant funding gap
 •    Benefit to EU MS and ENP of Ignalina NPP experience
 •    Lithuania is contributing to the expected level
 •    Seeking EU funds to meet funding gap (with inherent risks)
Thank you
Republic of Lithuania                                   Ministry of Energy




 Impact on National Energy Supply

                              Belarus 6%
                        Latvia 8%




         Estonia 22%


                                                  Russia 64%




           Breakdown of Electricity Imports by Country 1-3Q 2010

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Ignalina NPP Closure And Decommissioning

  • 1. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Ignalina NPP Closure and Decommissioning Meeting the Cost Decommissioning Funding Group – 16 March 2011
  • 2. the decommissioning of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant with two 1500 MW RBMK-type reactor units inherited from the former Soviet Union is of an unprecedented nature and represents for Lithuania an exceptional financial burden not commensurate with the size and economic strength of the country … Accession Treaty, Protocol 4
  • 3. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Plant Overview • Largest and most Plant Type RBMK-1500 advanced RBMK design (also with later safety Number of units 2 (of 4 planned) Basics upgrading) Power per unit 1250 MWe Nearest settlement Visaginas • Intended to serve NW Staff in 2011 2000 (approx.) region of Soviet Union Unit 1 Unit 2 • Supplied 70-80% of LT Operation First operation Dec 1983 Aug 1987 national demand Final closure Dec 2004 Dec 2009 • Closed at around mid-life Load factor 45.5% 57.4% (since independence) • Low load factor (lack of consumers in 1990s)
  • 4. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Impact on National Energy Supply 2007 2010 Primary Energy Sources
  • 5. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Impact on National Energy Supply Export EE GB DK AT SE NL SK GR PT NI IT HU FI LV IE LU LT LT SI CZ BG FR RO ES DE BE PL 2009 Import Import/Export of Electricity Supply for EU Countries (2010) Source: ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity)
  • 6. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Strategic initiatives: electricity
  • 7. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Strategic initiatives: natural gas
  • 8. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Impact on Visaginas • Purpose-built town (pop. ~30,000) • Wholly reliant on INPP • Largely Russian-speaking with poor socio-economic integration • Hard-hit by closure – reduction of employment opportunities – loss of status – massive rises in heating prices • Ministry of Energy funding social mitigation measures • PHARE study estimated 440 m Euro in social costs for best-case scenario
  • 9. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Decommissioning Strategy Immediate Dismantling Advantage Drawback Use of existing workforce: Costs incurred earlier (a) social mitigation (b) staff knowledge Higher radiation levels Use of operational infrastructure Defined regulatory framework Better cost definition No legacy to future generations
  • 10. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy RBMK plant decommissioning Technical difficulties: • huge primary masses of buildings • large proportion of contaminated masses • large volumes of operational waste • irradiated graphite – no established disposal method
  • 11. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Comparison with Greifswald NPP (1) 6 x 440 MWe VVER Greifswald NPP Ignalina NPP Operational Solid Waste 15,000 m3 (to be retrieved and managed) 30,000 m3 Operational Spent Resins 2,000 m3 (for cementation) 5,800 m3 Required Spent Fuel Casks 61 (for interim storage) 190 (additional) 59% Steel from Equipt. Dismantling 116,000 tons contaminated 130,000 tons 91% Steel 2,660 tons Reactor Core Structures Steel Graphite Shielding (serpentine / sand) 17,100 tons 2,300 t 3,800 t 11,000 t
  • 12. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Comparison with Greifswald NPP (2) • International experience exists in dismantling pressurised water reactors • Ignalina NPP is pioneering the immediate dismantling of an RBMK  more difficult to define technology and costs Smaller reactor size permits integral removal and storage of main vessel Not possible for RBMK
  • 13. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Overall schedule Opening waste ISFSF management routes SWMSF (Design & construction) Landfill Facility Near Surface Repository Fuel in core Fuel in pools Fuel fully removed Unit 1 Post-operation Operation activities Dismantling & Decontamination Fuel in core Fuel in pools Fuel fully removed Unit 2 Post-operation Operation activities Dismantling & Decontamination General site Site Operation & Maintenance D&D Demolition activities 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030
  • 14. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Sequence of starting dismantling 2 5 6 3 4 1 1. emergency core cooling system water storage tanks (Building 117) 2. turbine generators with auxiliary systems, feed facilities and heat supply facilities (Block G) 3. reactor gas circuit and special venting system (Block V) 4. low salt water and main coolant circuit bypass water treatment facilities (Block B) 5. control room, electrical equipment and deaerator (Block D) heat pipe service / fire fighting (Unit 1 only) 6. reactor building (Block A)
  • 15. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Current Status • Dismantling outside units since 2009 (e.g. service water pump house) • Dismantling unit facilities since 2010 (Unit 1 emergency core cooling system) • 2 major facilities in construction (a) Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility (b) Solid Waste Management & Storage Facility • 2 major facilities under design – Landfill (constructing Buffer Store) – Near Surface Repository
  • 16. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Decommissioning Costs Methodology • Simplified “Global Decommissioning Programme” – based on Final Decommissioning Plan – takes account of activities performed up to now – fully up-to-date and consistent with current planning – enables long-term cost factoring • Macroeconomic study – performed by chief economist of leading commercial bank – focussed on parameters relevant to decommissioning (general inflation, energy costs, labour costs)
  • 17. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Adjustments applied (1) General inflation Consumer Price Index (normalised to 2002) • Since 2002 (preparation of Final Decommissioning Plan) = ~30% • Forecast for 2012 to 2029 (annual rate of 2.5 to 3.2%) = ~110%
  • 18. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Adjustments applied (2) Energy prices % • Broadly based study based on several sources: – International Energy Agency – EC DG ENER – Russian Ministry of Energy – EPRI – World Nuclear Association • Adapted to specific circumstances of Lithuania – existing situation – strategic initiative in energy sector (e.g. interconnections and new nuclear)
  • 19. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Adjustments applied (3) Wages and salaries Average of public and private sector salaries (Litas) 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 • Significant rise in salaries since 2002 • Forecast for 2012 to 2029: from 7%, slowing to 5% in later years
  • 20. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Breakdown by Generic Activities Final Site Total cost: Clearance Preparatory Actions 2290 m Euro 5% 4% (at 2011 prices) Fuel Removal 9% 110 100 General Site m€ m€ Operation 210m€ Post-operation 27% 9% 200m€ 610m€ 550m€ 510m€ D&D 24% Waste Removal 22%
  • 21. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Breakdown by Generic Costs Other Investments & Procurements Total cost: 38% (2011) Adjustments 2290 m Euro (at 2011 prices) (2012-2029) 870m€ Staffing +160m€ 23% (adjusted) 450m€ Energy Major 640m€ +150m€ 17% (adjusted) Facilities 28% (2011) Major Facilities, Investments & +140m€ Procurements 320m€ 460m€ 60% (adjusted) Staffing Energy 20% (2011) 14% (2011)
  • 22. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Ignalina NPP Staffing 4600 3900 2800 Staff attributable to the cost of post-operation and dismantling 2250 2000 2000 1800 1400 1100 500 600 500 2001-2003 2004-2009 2010-2012 2013-2016 2017-2023 2024-2026 2027-2029 Unit 1 Unit 2 New End of End of unit End of End of closure closure skills defuelling dismantling all D&D demolition
  • 23. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Energy costs 25 m Euro Electricity Heat & Gas 20 m Euro 15 m Euro 10 m Euro 5 m Euro 2011 320 m Euro  460 m Euro Adjusted (2011) (adjusted)
  • 24. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Major Facilities Facility: ISFSF SWMSF Landfill NSR Status: Construction Construction Design Design (Buffer Store Construction) Cost: 200 m Euro 120 m Euro 30 m Euro 290 m Euro TOTAL 640 m Euro
  • 25. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Other investments & procurements Field Cost to 2011 Cost 2012-2029 TOTAL Reliable heat & steam supply after closure (B5) 40 m Euro 0 m Euro 40 m Euro Projects derived from the Final Decommissioning Plan Projects B6-B36 excl. D&D consultancy (B9), Reactor 25 m Euro 85 m Euro 110 m Euro Dismantling equipt. (B30), PMU (B31) and Melting Unit (B18†) Reactor Dismantling Related Investments (B30, B37, B38) 0 m Euro 40 m Euro 40 m Euro Consultancy Services 40 m Euro 5 m Euro 45 m Euro (IIDSF PMU - B31) D&D Consultancy (B9) 15 m Euro 5 m Euro 20 m Euro Physical Protection and Fire Service Cover 10 m Euro 100 m Euro 110 m Euro Site infrastructure for decommissioning 10 m Euro 15 m Euro 25 m Euro Dismissal compensation, low price contracts, training, insurance, business travel, etc. 55 m Euro 40 m Euro 95 m Euro (Costs now paid from National Decommissioning Fund) Support of post-operation 10 m Euro 45 m Euro 55 m Euro Support of D&D implementation 0 m Euro 220 m Euro 220 m Euro Final clean up of buildings, demolition and site restoration 0 m Euro 110 m Euro 110 m Euro TOTAL (at 2011 prices) 205 m Euro 665 m Euro 870 m Euro
  • 26. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Major Exclusions (1) Direct Costs of Ignalina NPP Decommissioning Field Exclusion Justification No technical solution currently Graphite All final disposal costs available No technical solution currently All final disposal costs available Spent nuclear fuel All costs of physical protection and surveillance Long-term cost beyond 2029 All costs of physical protection and surveillance of Radioactive waste Long-term cost storages and repositories beyond 2029 All costs associated with divestment of non- Divestment Not currently quantified decommissioning activities of Ignalina NPP All costs associated with the operation of Regulatory institutions Not currently quantified regulatory institutions for decommissioning
  • 27. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Major Exclusions (2) Indirect Costs of Ignalina NPP Decommissioning Field Exclusion Justification Unemployment benefits, social support, Not currently quantified. PHARE Study Local impact mitigation and redevelopment measures in estimated social costs of 440 m Euro at Visaginas 2001 prices. Loss of revenue to the State Budget Not currently quantified National impact Economic impact of loss of industrial Not currently quantified competiveness due to increased electricity prices
  • 28. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Assumptions Field Assumption Justification GDP was built-up from estimates developed and refined Global Decommissioning Plan (GDP) successively in successive planning documents (PDP, Overall decommissioning has identified all possible costs FDP, U1DP0, etc.). GDP accounts for real costs over 2000-2010 and further development of ongoing projects. FDP concluded that dismantling of reactors is possible Reactor dismantling GDP assumes immediate dismantling and foresees long-term interim storage of associated “orphan” waste. Rises in salaries, energy costs and other Macroeconomic study commissioned by Ministry of Macroeconomic prices do not exceed the values Energy based on best available data. presented
  • 29. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Risks Field Risk Quantification of impact Design & Build Major Investment Additional works, changes in regulatory 20% (60 m Euro approx.) Projects (ongoing) requirements Excludes indirect impact of any further delays. Build-only Major Investment Additional works, changes in regulatory 15% (50 m Euro approx.) Projects (planned) requirements Revisions of scope and unforeseeable Reactor dismantling 50% (20 m Euro approx.) variations Upgrading of interim storage into long- 50 m Euro (approx.) term near surface disposal (foreseen in Bitumized waste 14,000 m3 to be retrieved conditioned and GDP based on preliminary study) is not possible. disposed of in NSR Other Investments derived Revisions of scope and unforeseeable from Final Decommissioning 10% (10 m Euro approx.) variations Plan Total 190 m Euro (approx.) Other?
  • 30. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Comparison with Greifswald NPP (3) Greifswald NPP Ignalina NPP Operational Solid Waste 15,000 m3 (to be retrieved and managed) 30,000 m3 Operational Spent Resins 2,000 m3 (for cementation) 5,800 m3 Required Spent Fuel Casks 61 (for interim storage) 190 (additional) 59% Steel from Equipt. Dismantling 116,000 tons contaminated 130,000 tons 91% Steel 2,660 tons Reactor Core Structures Steel Graphite Shielding (serpentine / sand) 17,100 tons 2,300 t 3,800 t 11,000 t 3.2 billion Euro Decommissioning Funding Identified 1.4 billion Euro
  • 31. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Resources: EU & international 1999 - 2003 2004 - 2006 2007 - 2013 210 m€ 320 m€ 837 m€ 2011 2013 IIDSF interest: 50 m€ EU: 995.5 m€ EU: 1367 m€ Bilateral donors: 33 m€ Total: 1078.5 m€ Total: 1450 m€ • Legal basis of IIDSF and Ignalina Programme (from Accession Treaty) include decommissioning and consequential measures in the energy sector • Relevant to examine use of funds to date: – proportion of funding in each sector – current funding available
  • 32. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Resources: EU & international Unallocated 10% Administration 1% 111m 10 m Euro Energy Sector 29% Euro 306.5 m Euro 651 m Euro Decommissioning 60% Total: 1078.5 m Euro
  • 33. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy National Decommissioning Fund • Limited by: Social Unallocated – Soviet period 28% Mitigation 18% – safety power reduction 29 m Euro 45 m Euro – low load factor – early closure 32 m Euro Energy • Former funding Administration Sector 20% – levy on INPP electricity 4% (6 m Euro) 49 m Euro  no present income • Future funding Decommissioning 30% – surcharge on electricity sales (also limited)
  • 34. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Other national sources • Ignalina NPP own resources – present cash assets: 100 m Euro – future sales of materials: 30 m Euro • State Budget – taxes and ineligible income costs  460 m Euro to 2029 (at 20% tax)
  • 35. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Conclusion Resources 1450 m Euro FUNDING GAP 2740 m Euro (adjusted) EU and international donors until 2013 Lithuania 1290 m Euro 650m€ 480m€ (max) 320m€ 1480 m Euro 700m€ 2040m€ 190m€ Direct costs to 2011 Future direct costs 2012 to 2029 Risk 2011 2290 m Euro 2930 m Euro Direct Costs (2011 prices) (adjusted incl. risk) • Costs well-founded (cf. FDP & Greifswald) but significant funding gap • Benefit to EU MS and ENP of Ignalina NPP experience • Lithuania is contributing to the expected level • Seeking EU funds to meet funding gap (with inherent risks)
  • 37. Republic of Lithuania Ministry of Energy Impact on National Energy Supply Belarus 6% Latvia 8% Estonia 22% Russia 64% Breakdown of Electricity Imports by Country 1-3Q 2010