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Future Health Care
   ...largely unseen, but on
   the radar !


           Peter Cochrane
                         ca-global.org
                     cochrane.org.uk

                  COCHRANE
                    a s s o c i a t e s


Wednesday, 14 March 12
Context, context! My
                         kingdom for Context!



                            With apologies to William Shakespear

                            Richard The Third Act 5, scene 4, 7ā€“10


Wednesday, 14 March 12
The rules of the
                         game have changed...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Healthcare worldwide
                         is struggling to cope...in
                         the future it will be
                         much worse...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Solutions will be
                         technology driven and
                         come from the home
                         and local facilitues...

                         ...only the timing is the
                         issue...



Wednesday, 14 March 12
A recent example...a
                         family member is
                         now suffering this
                         and canā€™t speak...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
The NHS supplied this...




                         But I thought we could
                         do a lot better with an
                         iPad and a Free
                         App...and I was right!


Wednesday, 14 March 12
We will be the last
                         generation to know
                         so little about our
                         health and the state
                         of our bodies...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Home testing, diagnosis
                         and treatment will
                         (have to ?) grow...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Much of it will be built
                         in...subliminal...and
                         those who elect to opt
                         out or ignore the data,
                         and warning signs / fail
                         to take action will die
                         early...



Wednesday, 14 March 12
Technology has moved
                         the centre of
                         gravity...and it wonā€™t
                         stop...it will only
                         accelerate...and we have
                         to do much better than
                         just hanging on...



Wednesday, 14 March 12
And there is no going
                         back...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
This is the new norm,
                         the new stability...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
ā€œIt takes all the running
                         you can do, to keep in
                         the same placeā€
                         The Red Queen hypothesis, Alice in Wonderland: Lewis Carroll




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Networks of people and
                         things have changed
                         the way we see our
                         world, think and
                         act...with social nets
                         and distributed working
                         now centre stage...



Wednesday, 14 March 12
Users now call the
                         shots, with creativity,
                         problem solving and
                         innovation moving to
                         the edge...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Old people, systems,
                         lawyers,managers,
                         companies, societies,
                         governments...are
                         finding it hard to cope,
                         and even harder to
                         change...



Wednesday, 14 March 12
The only human that
                         likes change...

                         ...and even they cry and
                         scream thoughout the
                         process !




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Changing an established company !




                                    ā€œā€¦can be almost impossible, and it is
                                    generally far easier to build a new oneā€




NiccolĆ² Machiavelli 1469 - 1527




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Changing an established company !




                                    ā€œā€¦can be almost impossible, and it is
                                    generally far easier to build a new oneā€


                                             This is what you have

NiccolĆ² Machiavelli 1469 - 1527




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Changing an established company !




                                    ā€œā€¦can be almost impossible, and it is
                                    generally far easier to build a new oneā€


                                             This is what you need
                                                              have

NiccolĆ² Machiavelli 1469 - 1527




Wednesday, 14 March 12
But giant leaps are risky!



                         Exciting - and very deļ¬nitely
                         dangerous !!




Wednesday, 14 March 12
And yet some
       companies seem to
       get it right !




Wednesday, 14 March 12
How do they do it?




Wednesday, 14 March 12
By understanding...

                         What is available

                         What it can do now

                         What it will do in future



Wednesday, 14 March 12
By understanding
                         and satisfying
                         markets

                           Make it easy
                           Make it simple
                           Make it obvious
                           Make it convenient

                           Solve a problem
                           Satisfy a need

                           Deliver value

Wednesday, 14 March 12
By understanding &
                         s a t i s f y i n g
                         customers...



                         ...which is now quite a
                         span !!



Wednesday, 14 March 12
Timing !


                         Has to be spot on




Wednesday, 14 March 12
During the reformation
  eve r y t h i n g b e c a m e
  stove-piped...initially
  t h i s b ro u g h t h u g e
  beneļ¬t, but it is now a
  major inhibitor...

  ...there is only science...


Wednesday, 14 March 12
We really do have to start taking a much wider
    perspective to see what must be done, when and by
    what mechanisms...nothing is disconnected
    anymore; the ecology, economy, technology and all of
    life on this planet shares a mutual dependency...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
So what is the big future
                         opportunity !



                         The world of atoms and bits
                         is coming together...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Sustainability cannot
   be realised with old
   technologies and old
   industry models...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Changing all the light
     bulbs and tinkering at
     the edges wonā€™t cure
     this problem..




Wednesday, 14 March 12
We have to stop
   doing things like this
   and ļ¬nd planet (and
   people) friendly
   alternatives...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Underused video
    conference is a sign of
    the lack of network
    bandwidth and
    connectivity...

    ...it does not signify a
    lack of need, demand,
    or suitable technology !


Wednesday, 14 March 12
Tele-operations in
 t h e N H S c i rc a
 1992...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
And 20 years on it
  is still seen as on
  the leading edge...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
People are always the
   ultimate road block to our
   progress... the biggest risk
   to success...and now we
   are far slower to change
   than our technology...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Our future and that
       of the planet lies in
       the hands of new
       technologies and new
       models for industry
       and society...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
So, whats on, and just
  over the horizon ?




Wednesday, 14 March 12
It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot....
                                   ...and the next industrial revolution




                         Nano             Bio


                                IT + AI




Wednesday, 14 March 12
It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot....
                                         ...and the next industrial revolution




                               Nano             Bio


                                      IT + AI
          This is where all
          the real action is
          going to be


Wednesday, 14 March 12
Moving on from bulk
  materials and the
  destruction of
  resources...
  ...3D printing is going
  mainstream in industry... and
  soon it will be in every ofļ¬ce
  and home




Wednesday, 14 March 12
It is revolutionising
   the way we think of
   design & production...

   ...enabling new ways to realize
   c o m p l e x s t r u c t u re s , a n d
   integrated components...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
In the extreme it will
 change everything...

 ...and we have to think in terms
 of shipping designs and not
 goods...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
For those who donā€™t
                         see how 3D printers
                         will change the way
                         we live...

                         ...how about a printed jaw and
                         other body parts...scaffolding
                         for bone growth and repair
                         where cure is impossible




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Vertrebal Disc 2002




                          Tissue Injection
                          Molding..


                          Trachea 2002



Wednesday, 14 March 12
Cranofacial Implants
                         2003




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Bridging the organic
 and the biological to
 create new materials
 and capabilities...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Programming materials
  to form 3D objects of
  predeļ¬ned shape &
  function...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
We can afford to have
                         a gene decode @
                         $600 & 0.5day...


                         ...and within 5 years it
                         will be $10 and 10min...



Wednesday, 14 March 12
Nano-sensors and
 decoding the genome
 will change medicine
 and care...

 ...whilst the decoding the
 protein will lead to a new
 chapter for the human
 race...


Wednesday, 14 March 12
All the science we
  need to make a tri-
  corder is now
  available...


  ...all that is left is the
  engineering of a
  product...


Wednesday, 14 March 12
Scanadu - NASA Research Park Moffett Field CA




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Total Body Scan -
                                  bio samples to
                                         storage


                                                    Continual
       This all leads to an                         Monitoring
       expectation of
       technology assisted
                                    Injury or Ill
       personal survival...              Health



                                                    Repair and
                                                    Regeneration

Wednesday, 14 March 12
And perhaps a
                         little ļ¬ne tuning!




Wednesday, 14 March 12
But there is much
                         much more rapidly
                         approaching!




Wednesday, 14 March 12
We can now manipulate
individual atoms and
program cell by cell...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
And our machines are
designing machines...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part
   reality...mutating matter....




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Really interesting
                         exper iences this
                         year so far!




Wednesday, 14 March 12
A new breed, and a
                         new model operating
                         at the edge...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
A global network of
 home bio-labs is now
 producing useful results
 and contributing to the
 professional world...

 ...the happened before in
 the 1940 - 2010 with
 electronics, hi-ļ¬, radio,
 computer s , software ,
 apps...

Wednesday, 14 March 12
And what of the
  connected world
  and mainstream ?




Wednesday, 14 March 12
For most professionals
                         the amount of data and
                         info is doubling in less
                         than 2 years !




Wednesday, 14 March 12
They canā€™t cope, but
  the patients can...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
A solution is coming
                         from the direction of a
                         game show out of the
                         USA - Jeopardy...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
This application of AI is really powerful and will soon
   be available via The Cloud...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Life and death decisions
  are a fact of life...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
To say the least this
  poses some ver y
  serious issues...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
And this is only the
                         beginning of a whole
                         new line of self
                         generating technology...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
The world is no longer
                         simple, linear and well
                         behaved....it never has
                         been...but now it really
                         shows...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
The complexities of
                         Mother Nature have
                         now been compounded
                         by those we have
                         engineered!




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Outcomes are very
                         often counterintuitive
                         and small things can
                         often have very big
                         consequences...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Stress and mental illness
                         amongst the professional
                         classes is becoming an
                         epidemic!




Wednesday, 14 March 12
We are not going to get
                         any smarter and the
                         situation can only get
                         worse !




Wednesday, 14 March 12
We need help and there
 is only one direction to
 look !




Wednesday, 14 March 12
We need a different
                         perspective and new
                         ways of thinking...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Computer modelling, scenario testing, risk
          assessment, decision support...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
And there is so much more...
                         ā€¢ Social nets use GPS to go real
                         ā€¢ Machine to machine + robotics
                         ā€¢ Telepresence for maintenance
                         ā€¢ Logistics and RFID + tracking
                         ā€¢ Vehicle and people tracking
                         ā€¢ Appliance and device tracking
                         ā€¢ Dynamic energy management
                         ā€¢ Interactive books & newspapers
                         ā€¢ Interactive media
                         ā€¢ The death of radio,TV, print +++
Wednesday, 14 March 12
New economies
    fuelled by data and
    meta-data




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Where you are ?
    New economies         Where you have been ?
                          Where you are likely to be going to ?
    fuelled by data and   Who you have met ?
                          Who you are going to meet ?
    meta-data             Who you call ?
                          Who calls you ?
                          Who you TXT - IM - Link ?
                          All your contacts
                          All your urls
                          All you passwords
                          What you are doing now ?
                          What have you done in the past ?
                          What games you play ?
                          What apps you use ?
                          What music you listen to...?
                          What you watch...?
                          What you read...?
                          ++++++++++

Wednesday, 14 March 12
Big government & big
   companies ā€˜think big
   centralized solutionsā€™...

   ...and the almost always
   fail...complexity kills !




Wednesday, 14 March 12
But local small scale
                         system almost always
                         do a far better job...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Tagging for life




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Tagging for life



                                                    Cradle
                              Chunky
                              Limited              to Pretty
                                                      Grave
                              technology
                              information             Jewelry
                                                     Data




             Chips and tags on and in everything
             including goods, animals & people

Wednesday, 14 March 12
Challenges - My Big 3 !




Wednesday, 14 March 12
Artiļ¬cial Intelligence




                 Bio/Nano Sensors




           Manufactured Parts

Wednesday, 14 March 12
Life will be governed by
     our data, but our
     survival will be decided
     by our MetaData...




Wednesday, 14 March 12
ca-global.org
             cochrane.org.uk




              Thank You


                COCHRANE
                   a s s o c i a t e s


Wednesday, 14 March 12

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Future health care

  • 1. Future Health Care ...largely unseen, but on the radar ! Peter Cochrane ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 2. Context, context! My kingdom for Context! With apologies to William Shakespear Richard The Third Act 5, scene 4, 7ā€“10 Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 3. The rules of the game have changed... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 4. Healthcare worldwide is struggling to cope...in the future it will be much worse... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 5. Solutions will be technology driven and come from the home and local facilitues... ...only the timing is the issue... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 6. A recent example...a family member is now suffering this and canā€™t speak... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 7. The NHS supplied this... But I thought we could do a lot better with an iPad and a Free App...and I was right! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 8. We will be the last generation to know so little about our health and the state of our bodies... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 9. Home testing, diagnosis and treatment will (have to ?) grow... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 10. Much of it will be built in...subliminal...and those who elect to opt out or ignore the data, and warning signs / fail to take action will die early... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 11. Technology has moved the centre of gravity...and it wonā€™t stop...it will only accelerate...and we have to do much better than just hanging on... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 12. And there is no going back... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 13. This is the new norm, the new stability... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 14. ā€œIt takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same placeā€ The Red Queen hypothesis, Alice in Wonderland: Lewis Carroll Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 15. Networks of people and things have changed the way we see our world, think and act...with social nets and distributed working now centre stage... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 16. Users now call the shots, with creativity, problem solving and innovation moving to the edge... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 17. Old people, systems, lawyers,managers, companies, societies, governments...are finding it hard to cope, and even harder to change... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 18. The only human that likes change... ...and even they cry and scream thoughout the process ! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 19. Changing an established company ! ā€œā€¦can be almost impossible, and it is generally far easier to build a new oneā€ NiccolĆ² Machiavelli 1469 - 1527 Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 20. Changing an established company ! ā€œā€¦can be almost impossible, and it is generally far easier to build a new oneā€ This is what you have NiccolĆ² Machiavelli 1469 - 1527 Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 21. Changing an established company ! ā€œā€¦can be almost impossible, and it is generally far easier to build a new oneā€ This is what you need have NiccolĆ² Machiavelli 1469 - 1527 Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 22. But giant leaps are risky! Exciting - and very deļ¬nitely dangerous !! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 23. And yet some companies seem to get it right ! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 24. How do they do it? Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 25. By understanding... What is available What it can do now What it will do in future Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 26. By understanding and satisfying markets Make it easy Make it simple Make it obvious Make it convenient Solve a problem Satisfy a need Deliver value Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 27. By understanding & s a t i s f y i n g customers... ...which is now quite a span !! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 28. Timing ! Has to be spot on Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 29. During the reformation eve r y t h i n g b e c a m e stove-piped...initially t h i s b ro u g h t h u g e beneļ¬t, but it is now a major inhibitor... ...there is only science... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 30. We really do have to start taking a much wider perspective to see what must be done, when and by what mechanisms...nothing is disconnected anymore; the ecology, economy, technology and all of life on this planet shares a mutual dependency... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 31. So what is the big future opportunity ! The world of atoms and bits is coming together... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 32. Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies and old industry models... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 33. Changing all the light bulbs and tinkering at the edges wonā€™t cure this problem.. Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 34. We have to stop doing things like this and ļ¬nd planet (and people) friendly alternatives... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 35. Underused video conference is a sign of the lack of network bandwidth and connectivity... ...it does not signify a lack of need, demand, or suitable technology ! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 36. Tele-operations in t h e N H S c i rc a 1992... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 37. And 20 years on it is still seen as on the leading edge... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 38. People are always the ultimate road block to our progress... the biggest risk to success...and now we are far slower to change than our technology... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 39. Our future and that of the planet lies in the hands of new technologies and new models for industry and society... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 40. So, whats on, and just over the horizon ? Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 41. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AI Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 42. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AI This is where all the real action is going to be Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 43. Moving on from bulk materials and the destruction of resources... ...3D printing is going mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every ofļ¬ce and home Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 44. It is revolutionising the way we think of design & production... ...enabling new ways to realize c o m p l e x s t r u c t u re s , a n d integrated components... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 45. In the extreme it will change everything... ...and we have to think in terms of shipping designs and not goods... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 46. For those who donā€™t see how 3D printers will change the way we live... ...how about a printed jaw and other body parts...scaffolding for bone growth and repair where cure is impossible Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 47. Vertrebal Disc 2002 Tissue Injection Molding.. Trachea 2002 Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 48. Cranofacial Implants 2003 Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 49. Bridging the organic and the biological to create new materials and capabilities... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 50. Programming materials to form 3D objects of predeļ¬ned shape & function... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 51. We can afford to have a gene decode @ $600 & 0.5day... ...and within 5 years it will be $10 and 10min... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 52. Nano-sensors and decoding the genome will change medicine and care... ...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 53. All the science we need to make a tri- corder is now available... ...all that is left is the engineering of a product... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 54. Scanadu - NASA Research Park Moffett Field CA Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 55. Total Body Scan - bio samples to storage Continual This all leads to an Monitoring expectation of technology assisted Injury or Ill personal survival... Health Repair and Regeneration Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 56. And perhaps a little ļ¬ne tuning! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 57. But there is much much more rapidly approaching! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 58. We can now manipulate individual atoms and program cell by cell... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 59. And our machines are designing machines... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 60. Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality...mutating matter.... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 61. Really interesting exper iences this year so far! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 62. A new breed, and a new model operating at the edge... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 63. A global network of home bio-labs is now producing useful results and contributing to the professional world... ...the happened before in the 1940 - 2010 with electronics, hi-ļ¬, radio, computer s , software , apps... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 64. And what of the connected world and mainstream ? Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 65. For most professionals the amount of data and info is doubling in less than 2 years ! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 66. They canā€™t cope, but the patients can... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 67. A solution is coming from the direction of a game show out of the USA - Jeopardy... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 68. This application of AI is really powerful and will soon be available via The Cloud... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 69. Life and death decisions are a fact of life... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 70. To say the least this poses some ver y serious issues... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 71. And this is only the beginning of a whole new line of self generating technology... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 72. The world is no longer simple, linear and well behaved....it never has been...but now it really shows... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 73. The complexities of Mother Nature have now been compounded by those we have engineered! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 74. Outcomes are very often counterintuitive and small things can often have very big consequences... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 75. Stress and mental illness amongst the professional classes is becoming an epidemic! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 76. We are not going to get any smarter and the situation can only get worse ! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 77. We need help and there is only one direction to look ! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 78. We need a different perspective and new ways of thinking... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 79. Computer modelling, scenario testing, risk assessment, decision support... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 80. And there is so much more... ā€¢ Social nets use GPS to go real ā€¢ Machine to machine + robotics ā€¢ Telepresence for maintenance ā€¢ Logistics and RFID + tracking ā€¢ Vehicle and people tracking ā€¢ Appliance and device tracking ā€¢ Dynamic energy management ā€¢ Interactive books & newspapers ā€¢ Interactive media ā€¢ The death of radio,TV, print +++ Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 81. New economies fuelled by data and meta-data Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 82. Where you are ? New economies Where you have been ? Where you are likely to be going to ? fuelled by data and Who you have met ? Who you are going to meet ? meta-data Who you call ? Who calls you ? Who you TXT - IM - Link ? All your contacts All your urls All you passwords What you are doing now ? What have you done in the past ? What games you play ? What apps you use ? What music you listen to...? What you watch...? What you read...? ++++++++++ Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 83. Big government & big companies ā€˜think big centralized solutionsā€™... ...and the almost always fail...complexity kills ! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 84. But local small scale system almost always do a far better job... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 86. Tagging for life Cradle Chunky Limited to Pretty Grave technology information Jewelry Data Chips and tags on and in everything including goods, animals & people Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 87. Challenges - My Big 3 ! Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 88. Artiļ¬cial Intelligence Bio/Nano Sensors Manufactured Parts Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 89. Life will be governed by our data, but our survival will be decided by our MetaData... Wednesday, 14 March 12
  • 90. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Wednesday, 14 March 12