Why Strategic Decision Making Goes Wrong

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The decision making processes of business and government have changed little over the past 200 years, but technology has advanced, the world got connected, businesses are now networked, and everything is moving faster. Making decisions in a ‘slow environment’ is far easier and far simple than a fast one, and today the ‘starting conditions’ and assumptions are highly unlikely to be fixed or stable for long. It is no longer sufficient to identify the 3 most important parameters to work as a close approximation to the truth. It is also insufficient to rely on past experience and intuition. We have moved into the non-linear domain with 10s or even 100s of variables to consider. Not only do the old way and methods not work, they are downright dangerous, and often with disastrous consequences. No military commander would plan a battle without attention to detail, comprehensive modeling, and gaming the situation to assess risk. But in government and business managers do just that, they still rely upon the knee jerk reaction, intuition, and past experiences!

Business Technology

Why Strategic Decision
Making Goes Wrong
in companies & government
Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.biz
Monday, 26 August 13

* An incomplete understanding
* Dynamic data/information
* Unappreciated complexity
* Unintended consequences
* Changing environment
* Misplaced motivation
* Management hubris
* Personal reward
* The unexpected
* Novel situation
* Short termism
* Inexperience
* Short termism
* + + + + + + + + +
Monday, 26 August 13

C O M P A N I E S A R E
AWASH WITH DATA
Monday, 26 August 13

C O M P A N I E S A R E
AWASH WITH DATA
...thas is
stored..
...and may be
examined
Monday, 26 August 13

...and
speciﬁc
features
extracted
Monday, 26 August 13

...to be discussed
at length
Monday, 26 August 13

...and identiﬁable
parameters
classiﬁed
Monday, 26 August 13

. . . t o c re a t e
reasonable
& sensible
options
Monday, 26 August 13

...and by far the most
popular method
or technique
for choosing ?
I n t u i t i o n !
Monday, 26 August 13

...This often seems to work well
in the short term, but then turns
into a long term failure - often
with dire consequences!
Monday, 26 August 13

And worse, the impact
then spreads across
the entire
company !
Monday, 26 August 13

C O M P A N I E S A R E
AWASH WITH DATA
How
come
Monday, 26 August 13

...and ancient
m a n a g e m e n t
m e t h o d s n o
longer work
Everything and everyone
is now connected
The world is no longer
a simple, linear, well
b e h av e d a n d w e l l
understood place
It all got complex, dynamic
and non-linear !
Monday, 26 August 13

In a non-linear and
chaotic world a minor
error can result in a
very big outcome....
So what is needed and
what should we be
doing ?
Monday, 26 August 13

An effective
model of the
company and
market is a
m i n i m u m
requirement
Monday, 26 August 13

F I N D I N G T H E
RIGHT DATA
IS VITAL
Monday, 26 August 13

Take into account the stochastic nature of
business and the rate of informational change
Monday, 26 August 13

Build a computer
model - conduct
Monte Carlo
simulations for
all scenarios
many many
times to
reduce the
variance &
the overall
risk to some
level of acceptability
σ
Monday, 26 August 13

...thereby reducing
risk and chance
even further
Monday, 26 August 13

W A R G A M E
Every aspect and area of
doubt around the core
values identiﬁed by the
computer model.....
.test and check...
..test and check...
...test and check...
Monday, 26 August 13

Press GO and then
mitigate the risk in real
time by feeding actuality
back into the model as
decisions are enacted...
...the change you invoke will change
the environment and the optima of
the model.....which will dynamically
move in near real time...
Monday, 26 August 13

GO
Starting
Conditions
Output/
Change
Continuous
output/change
feedback to
m o d i f y t h e
initial/starting
conditions of
the model
Monday, 26 August 13

Complexity dictates that
we ‘navigate’ our way
through a rapidly changing
environment....
...continual mid
course corrections
are the new norm
Monday, 26 August 13

As of today this is the best the
military and business can do!
Monday, 26 August 13

The
future
will be
different
ca-global.biz
cochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Our machine
dependence
will grow as
our intuition
increasingly
fails to account
for complexity...
Monday, 26 August 13

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Smart Materials and Structures

University of Hertfordshire

We are engaged in an exponentially growing cyber war that we are visibly losing. Within the next 3 years it has been estimated that the global cost will equal, or overtake, the UK GDP, and it is clear that our defences are inadequate and often ineffective. Malware and ransomer-ware continue to extort more money, and cause damage and inconvenience to individuals, organisations and society, whilst hacker groups, criminals and rogue states continue to innovate and maintain their advantage. At the same time, our defences are subverted and rendered ineffective as we operate in a reactive and prescriptive, after the fact, mode with no foresight or anticipation. In any war it is essential to know and understand as much about the enemy as possible, it is also necessary to establish the truth and validity of any situation or development. Doing this in the cyber domain is orders of magnitude more difficult than the real world, but some of the relevant tools are now available or at an advanced stage of development. For example; fully automated fact checkers and truth engines have been demonstrated, whilst situational awareness technologies are commercially available. However, what is missing is some level of context assessment on a continual basis. Without this we will continue to be ‘blind-sided’ by the actions and developments of the attackers as they maintain their element of surprise along every line of innovation. What do we need? In short ; a Context Engine that continually monitors networks, servers, routers, machines, devices and people for anomalous behaviours that flag pending attacks as behavioural deviations that are generally easy to detect. In the case of attacker groups we have observed precursor events and trends in network activity days ahead of some big offensive. However, this requires a shift in the defenders thinking and operations away for the reactive and short term, to the long term continual monitoring, data collection and analysis in order to establish threat assessments on a real time. The behavioural analysis of people, networks and ITC, is at the core of our ‘Context Engine’ solution which completes the triangle of: Truth; Situation; Context Awareness to provide defenders with a fuller and transformative picture. Most of the known precursor elements of this undertaken have been studied in some depth, with some behavioural elements identified on real networks and some physical situations. The unknown can only add more accuracy!

TRUTH, SITUATION, & CONTEXT AWARENESS

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Why Strategic Decision Making Goes Wrong

1. Why Strategic Decision Making Goes Wrong in companies & government Peter Cochrane COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s cochrane.org.uk ca-global.biz Monday, 26 August 13

2. * An incomplete understanding * Dynamic data/information * Unappreciated complexity * Unintended consequences * Changing environment * Misplaced motivation * Management hubris * Personal reward * The unexpected * Novel situation * Short termism * Inexperience * Short termism * + + + + + + + + + Monday, 26 August 13

3. C O M P A N I E S A R E AWASH WITH DATA Monday, 26 August 13

4. C O M P A N I E S A R E AWASH WITH DATA ...thas is stored.. ...and may be examined Monday, 26 August 13

5. ...and speciﬁc features extracted Monday, 26 August 13

6. ...to be discussed at length Monday, 26 August 13

7. ...and identiﬁable parameters classiﬁed Monday, 26 August 13

8. . . . t o c re a t e reasonable & sensible options Monday, 26 August 13

9. ...and by far the most popular method or technique for choosing ? I n t u i t i o n ! Monday, 26 August 13

10. ...This often seems to work well in the short term, but then turns into a long term failure - often with dire consequences! Monday, 26 August 13

11. And worse, the impact then spreads across the entire company ! Monday, 26 August 13

12. C O M P A N I E S A R E AWASH WITH DATA How come Monday, 26 August 13

13. ...and ancient m a n a g e m e n t m e t h o d s n o longer work Everything and everyone is now connected The world is no longer a simple, linear, well b e h av e d a n d w e l l understood place It all got complex, dynamic and non-linear ! Monday, 26 August 13

14. In a non-linear and chaotic world a minor error can result in a very big outcome.... So what is needed and what should we be doing ? Monday, 26 August 13

15. An effective model of the company and market is a m i n i m u m requirement Monday, 26 August 13

16. F I N D I N G T H E RIGHT DATA IS VITAL Monday, 26 August 13

17. Take into account the stochastic nature of business and the rate of informational change Monday, 26 August 13

18. Build a computer model - conduct Monte Carlo simulations for all scenarios many many times to reduce the variance & the overall risk to some level of acceptability σ Monday, 26 August 13

19. ...thereby reducing risk and chance even further Monday, 26 August 13

20. W A R G A M E Every aspect and area of doubt around the core values identiﬁed by the computer model..... .test and check... ..test and check... ...test and check... Monday, 26 August 13

21. Press GO and then mitigate the risk in real time by feeding actuality back into the model as decisions are enacted... ...the change you invoke will change the environment and the optima of the model.....which will dynamically move in near real time... Monday, 26 August 13

22. GO Starting Conditions Output/ Change Continuous output/change feedback to m o d i f y t h e initial/starting conditions of the model Monday, 26 August 13

23. Complexity dictates that we ‘navigate’ our way through a rapidly changing environment.... ...continual mid course corrections are the new norm Monday, 26 August 13

24. As of today this is the best the military and business can do! Monday, 26 August 13

25. The future will be different ca-global.biz cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Our machine dependence will grow as our intuition increasingly fails to account for complexity... Monday, 26 August 13

Why Strategic Decision Making Goes Wrong

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