1. To
Na0onal
Religious
Broadcasters
Nashville
–
February
24,
2014
The
Great
Disrup.on
Three
Digital
Revolu0ons
and
Those
Yet
to
Come
Lee
Rainie
-‐
@lrainie
Director,
PRC
Internet
Project
2.
3. Big
points
• We
live
in
a
world
of
“networked
individuals”
prac0cing
“networked
individualism”
• Three
technology
revolu0ons
have
pushed
along
pre-‐exis0ng
trends
towards
NI
• People’s
experience
of
media
is
orchestrated
by
their
social
networks
and
expanded
by
social
media
• The
next
technology
revolu0ons
are
clearly
evident
now
…
so
be
prepared
4. 1)
We
live
in
a
world
of
“networked
individuals”
prac0cing
“networked
individualism”
6. Personal
networks
are:
More
important
–
trust,
influence
awareness
Differently
composed
–
segmented,
layered
Perform
new
func.ons
–
sentries,
evaluators,
audience
7. But
it
is
not
just
technological
story
Other
drivers
are
changes
in
…
Iden.ty
shiIs
–
star.ng
with
religion
&
poli.cs
Family
life
changes
Business
structures
&
labor
shiIs
Transporta.on
&
living
paMerns
…
then
comes
technology
8. 2)
Three
technology
revolu0ons
have
pushed
along
pre-‐exis0ng
trends
towards
networked
individualism
10. First:
Internet
and
broadband
Broadband
adop0on
2000-‐2013
Dial-‐up
Broadband
100%
70%
80%
60%
40%
3%
20%
0%
June
2000
April
March
March
April
March
March
March
April
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
April
2009
May
2010
Aug
2011
April
2012
May
2013
11. Second:
Wireless
connec0vity
Mobile
–
90%
…
smartphone
58%
…
tablets
42%
326.4
Total
U.S.
popula.on:
319
million
2013
12. Third:
Social
media
61%
of
all
adults
18-‐29
100%
30-‐49
50-‐64
65+
%
of
internet
users
89%
78%
80%
60%
60%
43%
40%
20%
9%
7%
0%
6%
2005
1%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
13. 3)
People’s
experience
of
media
is
orchestrated
by
their
social
networks
and
expanded
by
social
media
14. Impacts
• Informa0on
flows
change
–
my
network,
my
playlist
• Shibing
0me
and
acen0on
• Changed
rela0onships
to
larger
ins0tu0ons
(including
media
organiza0ons)
– Every
organiza0on
a
media
company
and
a
node
– Every
individual
a
brand
• Amateurs
rise
to
sit
alongside
and
some0mes
challenge
experts
• Conversa0ons
and
disputes
are
much
more
drawn
out
15.
16. 4)
The
next
technology
revolu0ons
are
clearly
evident
now
…
so
be
prepared
17. th
revolu0on
+++
4
• Internet
fades
into
the
environment
as
the
“internet
of
things”
expands
and
“big
data”
mushrooms
• Interfaces
change
–
gesture,
voice
• Personal
connec0vity
grows
• Search
expands
to
all
media
• Surveillance
takes
new
forms
• Personal
empowerment
develops
(3D
prin0ng)
–
Maker
culture