Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund January 2010 Us
1. 1
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Ermitage Global Dynamic
Trading Fund – February ‘10
For professional/sophisticated investors only
These presentation materials and the information contained herein, and any oral or other written
information disclosed or provided is strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed,
in whole or in part, nor may its contents be disclosed to any other person under any circumstances
without the express written consent of Ermitage Asset Management Jersey Limited. An investment in
the Fund is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. The Fund may, through its investments,
employ certain trading techniques that may include short selling, options, and the use of leverage
which may increase the risk of investment loss. As a result, performance may be volatile and an
investor may lose some or all of his or her investment. Furthermore, the ability to withdraw
investments or redeem shares or to transfer such shares or interests will be limited. It is anticipated
that there will not be a secondary market for interests or shares in the Fund nor is any expected to
develop. Fees and expenses may offset trading profits. Please refer to the Confidential Private
Offering Memorandum when available for all risks associated with investments in the Fund. Certain
information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements. Due to various uncertainties
and actual events, including those discussed herein and in the offering documents, actual results or
performance of the Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (the "Fund"); a Cayman Islands limited
liability company, may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking
statements. As a result, investors should not rely on such forward-looking statements in making their
investment decisions. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives described herein will
be achieved. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment.
2. 2
Global Dynamic Trading Fund – summary
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
High conviction discretionary fund trading liquid futures
markets Cumulative performance – Global Dynamic Trading Fund USD*
vs MSCI World Index USD and HFRX Macro Index - Oct 07 to Jan 10
Uses technical inputs based on pattern, time and price
1800
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund USD
Highly adaptive to market conditions – returns can be MSCI World Index
1600
generated irrespective of market direction HFRX Macro Index
1400
Non-correlated to macro systematic or trend followers +22.65%
1200
22.65% average annual return since October 2007*
1000
Experienced investment team with 60 years combined
expertise in investment / trading global markets 800
Performance not dampened by diversification or thematic 600
focus (fund remains in cash when market conditions are 400
sub-optimal)
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Sep-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Transparent process and robust risk management with
clear, quantifiable profit and loss levels
Source: Ermitage Group and Bloomberg *The investment programme of Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (The "Fund") has been actively running since
October 2007 as an overlay allocation (the "Overlay allocation") for Ermitage Global Wealth Management Strategies Fund Limited. The monthly performance (%)
figures quoted above prior to August 2008, relate to the performance of the Overlay allocation. Performance from August 2008 to March 2009 relate to the Ermitage
SPC – Global Dynamic Trading Fund Segregated Portfolio. All performance figures quoted are net of a performance fee of 20% and an annual management fee of 1.5%
and expenses. Past performance of the Overlay Allocation is not indicative nor a guarantee of future returns of the Fund.
Please refer to page 18 of this document for the description of all Indices.
3. 3
Investment team
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Ian Cadby is Ermitage Group’s Chief Executive Officer. An Investment professional with over 23 years industry experience, Ian joined Ermitage in
Ian Cadby 2001 initially to head up Ermitage's Strategic Investment and Hedge Fund seeding programme. He then went on to become Ermitage’s CIO
Group CEO and (handed over FoHF CIO responsibilities to Jonathon Wauton in 2008) and finally CEO in 2004. Ian is also head of the firm’s CTA trading programme
Investment Trading and as such chairs the Global Trading Committee. He left UBS Philips & Drew in 1990 to set up a Hedge Fund in London specialising in Asian equity
Director arbitrage and in 1998 became Head of Hedge Fund Trading for what was then one of Asia’s largest Hedge Funds. Ian has extensive experience in
Joined 2001 options trading and equity arbitrage. For several years Ian was a registered Commodity Trading Adviser and is a Fellow of the Securities &
Investment Institute. Ian is a Harvard Business School alumni, having completed the Harvard Advanced Management Programme in 2008.
Elliot Refson Elliot Refson is Portfolio Manager – Global Dynamic Trading Fund. Elliot joined Ermitage in 2006 and has over 20 years international experience in
Portfolio Manager – capital markets including an accomplished record as a technical analyst and fund / hedge fund manager (having also lectured extensively on his
specialist area of market timing). Alongside his trading mandate, Elliot assists Ermitage’s Investment Management Committee and Global Wealth
Global Dynamic
Management division to identify and benefit from key trend changes in major markets and currencies. Prior to joining Ermitage, Elliot worked
Trading Fund with Ian Cadby in Hong Kong managing a futures fund with a similar profile.
Joined 2006
Andrew Whelan is a Group Executive Director and Managing Director of Ermitage Global Wealth Management Jersey Limited (GWMS). Andrew is
Andrew N Whelan Chairman of the Wealth Management Portfolio Committee. He joined in 2001 from Kleinwort Benson (CI) Investment Management Limited, part
MD – Global Wealth of the Dresdner Private Banking Group, where he was head of the Channel Islands' Portfolio Management Division, which had funds under
Management management of $2.5 billion. He was also a member of Kleinwort Benson's London Private Bank Investment Committee, which formulated
investment strategy for both the onshore and offshore businesses with combined funds under management of circa $9 billion. In addition
Services Andrew was the Fund Manager of the award winning Dresdner Private Banking Strategic Investment Fund, investing in core Dresdner RCM
Joined 2001 collective investment schemes. Andrew has 21 years’ experience as an investment professional and is a Fellow of the Securities & Investment
Institute.
4. 4
Fund history
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
August 2008:
Global Dynamic Trading Fund Programme AUM $157.6m***
Segregated Portfolio launched (Jan 2010)
Fund Av. Annual Return: 22.65%
Performance* Risk: 18.19%**
Ermitage’s Global Dynamic Trading
Programme AUM comprises two funds
and a number of managed accounts.
October 2007:
March 2009:
Global Dynamic Trading
Global Dynamic Trading Fund launched
Programme starts
Source: Ermitage Group and Bloomberg. *The investment programme of Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (The "Fund") has been actively running since October
2007 as an overlay allocation (the "Overlay allocation") for Ermitage Global Wealth Management Strategies Fund Limited. The monthly performance (%) figures
quoted above prior to August 2008, relate to the performance of the Overlay allocation. Performance from August 2008 to March 2009 relate to the Ermitage SPC –
Global Dynamic Trading Fund Segregated Portfolio. All performance figures quoted are net of a performance fee of 20% and an annual management fee of 1.5% and
expenses. Past performance of the Overlay Allocation is not indicative nor a guarantee of future returns of the Fund **Risk is measured by standard deviation.
Please refer to page 18 of this document for the description of all Indices. ***Fund AUM relates to the Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading programme.
5. 5
GDTF versus Discretionary and Systematic Funds
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
vs. Discretionary CTA’s / Macro Funds vs. Systematic CTA’s
GDTF has low to negative correlation vs. discretionary GDTF has low to negative correlation vs. systematic trend
hedge funds* and non-trend hedge funds* - reflects GDTF’s adaptive
characteristics to market conditions
High conviction style, combined with benefits of time
cycle analysis If potential for trend reversal or range bound markets
grows, GDTF can go 100% to cash
GDTF will not ‘build’ into trades and tolerate wider losses
per trade (max trade loss for each position is up to 3% or GDTF can react to and profit from short term trends or
less of invested NAV). Normal trading in a ranging market ranging markets and is not constrained by long term
is 1% of NAV and 2% in a trending market trends
GDTF does not need a diversified ‘portfolio construction’
approach – or need to rely on complex risk management
models to identify and control risk
GDTF offers a hybrid strategy, between Discretionary and Systematic Trend/Non-Trend Managers
*Source: Ermitage Group. Refer to pages 12, 13, 14
6. 6
Analysis / idea generation
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Discretionary strategy aims to identify and benefit from distinct trends in a wide range of liquid futures markets –
without being tied to any particular time frame
Trading ideas are discussed daily amongst the investment team, supported by our proprietary analysis. The
investment team meets monthly to review performance and determine key opportunities the Fund may exploit.
Research focuses solely on leading indicators: starting point for analysis is Time (not Price)
All market analysis begins with the long term Monthly chart and progresses to Weekly, Daily and Hourly charts to
determine the market status in an historical context and identify points at which changes or continuation to existing
trends can be expected
The time frame for a trade is determined whether a market is ranging or trending
While we believe our proprietary time based analysis gives an edge, our trading does not rely solely on this
We believe time cycle analysis is a crucial edge over other directional based trading strategies
7. 7
Investing in liquid futures markets
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Equity Exchange Currencies Exchange Bonds Exchange
S&P 500 CME Japanese Yen CME Gilt LIFFE
DJ Euro Stoxx EUREX British Pound CME Long Bond CBT
FTSE LIFFE Swiss Franc CME Bund EUREX
Nikkei SGX Euro CME
Hang Seng HKFE Australian Dollar CME
Metals Exchange Precious Metals Exchange Energy Exchange
Aluminium LME Gold COMEX Crude Oil NYM
Lead LME Silver COMEX
Zinc LME Platinum COMEX
Copper LME
Tin LME
Nickel LME
Softs Exchange Grains Exchange
Cocoa ICE Corn CBOT
Coffee ICE Wheat CBOT
8. 8
Risk management disciplines
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Transparent and repeatable process, with robust risk management (clear, quantifiable profit & loss levels)
Positions only taken in keeping with main trend of a market
Every position has a stop loss when the position is opened, placed ‘Good Till Cancelled’ (and where appropriate,
‘Good All Markets’)
All positions carry an equal risk to stop loss
Each position sizing based on ‘risk to stop loss’ of up to 3% or less of invested NAV
Pyramid trades only implemented when the stop loss of original position becomes profitable and a fresh signal to
enter a trade is generated
Further pyramids are based on the same rule, taking into account the proximity of the profit stop
9. 9
Cumulative performance*
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund USD Performance* Net of Fees: Oct 07 – Jan 10
1800 Average Annual
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund USD Return
MSCI World Index
1600 HFRX Macro Index +22.65%
1400
1200
1000 +0.05%
800
-14.92%
600
400
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Dec-07
May-08
Dec-08
May-09
Dec-09
Sep-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Source: Ermitage Group, Bloomberg, HFR. Index: MSCI World Index USD, HFRX Macro Index.
*The investment programme of Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (The "Fund") has been actively running since October 2007 as an overlay
allocation (the "Overlay allocation") for Ermitage Global Wealth Management Strategies Fund Limited. The monthly performance (%) figures
quoted above prior to August 2008, relate to the performance of the Overlay allocation. Performance from August 2008 to March 2009 relate to
the Ermitage SPC – Global Dynamic Trading Fund Segregated Portfolio. All performance figures quoted are net of a performance fee of 20% and
an annual management fee of 1.5% and expenses. Past performance of the Overlay Allocation is not indicative nor a guarantee of future returns
of the Fund. Please refer to page 18 of this document for the description of all Indices.
10. 10
Performance – quantitative analysis*
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund USD Performance* – October 2007 to January 2010
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2010 3.29 3.29
2009 3.22 0.06 1.01 (2.25) 0.63 (0.98) 0.75 (4.68) 5.64 (1.40) 0.59 (0.94) 1.29
2008 10.52 (2.56) 9.07 (0.83) (3.20) 2.63 4.89 (0.60) 0.64 5.02 0.40 0.92 29.22
2007 (3.30) 21.73 1.29 19.24
Risk Fund MSCI Return Fund MSCI
Sharpe Ratio 1.14 (0.60) Average Annual Return 22.65 (14.92)
Standard Deviation 18.19 24.01 Average Monthly Return 1.84 (1.10)
Sortino Ratio 4.15 (0.80) Largest Monthly Return 21.73 10.90
Downside-Deviation (below 0%) 5.14 20.23 Largest Monthly Loss (4.68) (19.04)
Maximum Drawdown (6.46) (55.37) Compounded Return 61.19 (31.47)
Months in Maximum Drawdown 5 16 % of Positive Months 64.00 43.00
Correlation - (0.34)
Source: Ermitage Group and Bloomberg Index: MSCI World Index USD
*The investment programme of Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (The "Fund") has been actively running since October 2007 as an overlay allocation (the "Overlay
allocation") for Ermitage Global Wealth Management Strategies Fund Limited. The monthly performance (%) figures quoted above prior to August 2008, relate to the
performance of the Overlay allocation. Performance from August 2008 to March 2009 relate to the Ermitage SPC – Global Dynamic Trading Fund Segregated Portfolio. All
performance figures quoted are net of a performance fee of 20% and an annual management fee of 1.5% and expenses. Past performance of the Overlay Allocation is not
indicative nor a guarantee of future returns of the Fund. Please refer to page 18 of this document for the description of all Indices.
11. 11
Performance – trading overview
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund USD Performance* – August 2008 to October 2009
4.00%
3.00%
JPY CABLE
EUR CABLE
BRITISH POUND
SWISS FRANC
TRADE P&L AS % OF NAV
2.00%
GOLD-COMEX
JAPANESE YEN
NIKKEI 225 YEN
1.00%
EMINI S&P 500
IMM EMINI NSDQ
NEW FTSE 100
0.00% IMM EURO FX
13-Nov-08
11-Mar-09
13-Mar-09
14-May-09
28-May-09
07-Aug-08
03-Sep-08
16-Sep-08
01-Oct-08
08-Oct-08
15-Oct-08
29-Oct-08
12-Jan-09
22-Jan-09
03-Feb-09
09-Feb-09
24-Feb-09
01-Apr-09
08-Jul-09
14-Jul-09
07-Aug-09
10-Sep-09
17-Sep-09
05-Oct-09
14-Oct-09
27-Oct-09
EURO CCY GLOBEX
EURX EUR-BUND
EURX EUR STX 50
-1.00%
-2.00%
*The investment programme of Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (The "Fund") has been actively running since October 2007 as an overlay allocation (the
"Overlay allocation") for Ermitage Global Wealth Management Strategies Fund Limited. The monthly performance (%) figures quoted above prior to August 2008,
relate to the performance of the Overlay allocation. Performance from August 2008 to March 2009 relate to the Ermitage SPC – Global Dynamic Trading Fund
Segregated Portfolio. All performance figures quoted are net of a performance fee of 20% and an annual management fee of 1.5% and expenses. Past performance of
the Overlay Allocation is not indicative nor a guarantee of future returns of the Fund. Please refer to page 18 of this document for the description of all Indices.
12. 12
Performance – correlation analysis*
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund Correlation* – Trend Following Oct 2007 to Dec 2009
Source: Ermitage Group and
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (Class A - USD)
Bloomberg
Altis Global Futures Portfolio Inc. Cell (Class A - USD)
*The investment programme of
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund
(The "Fund") has been actively running
Winton Futures Fund Ltd (Class B - USD)
NuWave Combined Futures Portfolio Ltd
since October 2007 as an overlay
Mulvaney Global Markets Fund, Limited
allocation (the "Overlay allocation")
Welton Global Directional Portfolio
for Ermitage Global Wealth
Millburn Multi-Markets Fund L.P.
Aspect Diversified Fund - USD
Global Diversified Programme
Oct 07 to Dec 09 Management Strategies Fund Limited.
The monthly performance (%) figures
Beach Horizon Fund Ltd
quoted above prior to August 2008,
EMC Classic Program
relate to the performance of the
AHL Alpha plc Overlay allocation. Performance from
August 2008 to March 2009 relate to
the Ermitage SPC – Global Dynamic
Trading Fund Segregated Portfolio. All
performance figures quoted are net of
AHL Alpha plc 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 a performance fee of 20% and an
Altis Global Futures Portfolio Inc. Cell (Class A - USD) 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 -0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.7 annual management fee of 1.5% and
Aspect Diversified Fund - USD 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 -0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.8 expenses. Past performance of the
Beach Horizon Fund Ltd 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 -0.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 Overlay Allocation is not indicative nor
EMC Classic Program 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 -0.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.7 a guarantee of future returns of the
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (Class A - USD) 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 Fund.
Global Diversified Programme 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 This correlation chart has been
Millburn Multi-Markets Fund L.P. 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 -0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.7 0.8 constructed from our own database
Mulvaney Global Markets Fund, Limited 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 -0.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.7
(in the absence of a published peer
group), of a selection of established
NuWave Combined Futures Portfolio Ltd 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.2
single manager hedge funds that
Welton Global Directional Portfolio 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.0 0.8
follow a trend following trading
Winton Futures Fund Ltd (Class B - USD) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.8 1.0
technique.
13. 13
Performance – correlation analysis*
Fund Overview Investment Approach Performance Analysis Summary Appendix
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund Correlation* – Non Trend Following Oct 2007 to Dec 2009
Source: Ermitage Group and
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (Class A - USD)
Bloomberg
*The investment programme of
Thor Systematic Alpha Futures Fund Ltd - Class A
Amplitude Dynamic Trading Fund (Class C - USD)
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund
(The "Fund") has been actively running
CCP Quantitative Fund (Aristarchus Class)
since October 2007 as an overlay
allocation (the "Overlay allocation")
Dynamic Offshore Fund Ltd (Class B)
for Ermitage Global Wealth
R.G. Niederhoffer Global Fund LP I
Management Strategies Fund Limited.
Mapleridge Fund Ltd (Class A)
Oct 07 to Dec 09 The monthly performance (%) figures
Kaiser Trading Fund 2X SPC
Quantitative Global Program
quoted above prior to August 2008,
relate to the performance of the
Overlay allocation. Performance from
August 2008 to March 2009 relate to
the Ermitage SPC – Global Dynamic
Trading Fund Segregated Portfolio. All
performance figures quoted are net of
a performance fee of 20% and an
annual management fee of 1.5% and
Amplitude Dynamic Trading Fund (Class C - USD) 1.0 0.1 -0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.1 expenses. Past performance of the
CCP Quantitative Fund (Aristarchus Class) 0.1 1.0 0.0 -0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Overlay Allocation is not indicative nor
Dynamic Offshore Fund Ltd (Class B) -0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.2 a guarantee of future returns of the
Fund.
Ermitage Global Dynamic Trading Fund (Class A - USD) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.5
This correlation chart has been
Kaiser Trading Fund 2X SPC 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 constructed from our own database
Mapleridge Fund Ltd (Class A) 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 (in the absence of a published peer
Quantitative Global Program 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.2 group), of a selection of established
1.0
single manager hedge funds that
R.G. Niederhoffer Global Fund LP I 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2
follow a trend following trading
Thor Systematic Alpha Futures Fund Ltd - Class A 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0
technique.