柏瑞週報 20190419

1. 19 April
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
2.5596% 3
10
•
0.21%
0.13%
408.6
•
0.06%
0.08%
0.04% 0.30%
0.32%
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
0.22
0.03
0.54
0.81
0.57
0.93
0.98
0.94
1.37
1.10
0.74
0.94
1.67
1.12
1.68
-0.44
-0.32
-0.18
-0.13
-0.08
-0.04
0.04
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.11
0.13
0.21
0.30
0.48
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
(Medicare for All)
S&P 500 0.58%
•
600 0.92%
•
225
1.74% NTT Docomo
• GDP
1.89% 13
• 10 6
0.31%
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
-4.12
-5.42
1.07
2.18
2.01
2.54
1.24
2.73
2.19
0.80
4.03
2.74
4.27
2.34
4.97
4.85
-1.84
-0.19
0.31
0.46
0.57
0.58
0.59
0.68
0.92
1.30
1.37
1.38
1.42
1.74
1.89
2.41
MSCI
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
500
MSCI
MSCI
600
H
RTS
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
DAX
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
OPEC+
• 4 12
139.6 ( ) 230
117.4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/4/18
-2.74
-0.50
-2.70
-2.79
-2.14
-3.50
1.23
-2.79
2.71
8.31
0.79
6.56
-3.53
-3.42
-2.34
-1.65
-1.29
-0.42
-0.10
0.38
0.43
0.66
1.06
1.61
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 11 19
25 11
6
• 80 48
14
12 15 14
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/4/17

8. PAGE 7
• 2016 WTO
WTO
5
( 1)
• 2
1 511 494 ( 2)
301 Trump
•
• Trump Mueller
Trump
Trump
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
( 1) 500
( 2)

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Natural Resource Partners
• S&P 500
15% 78%
( 2) 48%
1 S&P 500
-1.7%
• 3 2
1.6% 1% 2
0.2%
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
( 2) ( )
( 1)

10. PAGE 9
• 4
(PMI) 47.8( 1) 47.5
3
PMI 50
PMI 51.3
• 200
• GDP
1% 0.5%
2018 1.4%
• 4 PMI
49.2 49.5( 2) 3
50 3
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
( 1) PMI
( 2) PMI

11. PAGE 10
•
GDP
6.4%( 1) 6.3%
3
• 3 M2
8.6%
8.2% 3 2.86
1.69
•
Joko Widodo
Prabowo Subianto 7
5 22
•
( 2) Guedes
2 4
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
( 1) GDP
( 2) BOVESPA

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
4/22 3 2.55 -0.29
4/22 3 ( ) -3.80% 11.80%
4/23 2 FHFA ( ) 0.60% 0.60%
4/23 4 10 10
4/23 4 -7 -7.2
4/23 3 ( ) -3.00% 4.90%
4/24 4 IFO 99.9 99.6
4/24 1.75% 1.75%
4/25 1 24.00% 24.00%
4/25 3 ( ) 0.70% -1.60%
4/25 4 9 10
4/25 -- -0.10%
4/25 7 6.00% 6.00%
4/26 3 2.40% 2.30%
4/26 3 ( ) 0.10% 0.70%
4/26 7.75% 7.75%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 110.0 (4/18) 5 : 126.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.66 (4/18)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.60 (4/18)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 304.24 (4/18) 5 : 319.1

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.18 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 408.6 (4/18) 5 : 455.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.17 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 354.0 (4/18) 5 : 439.4
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.99 (4/18)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 359.0 (4/18) 5 : 372.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.46 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 498.0 (4/18) 5 : 507.7

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.02 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 339.25 (4/18) 5 : 341.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.70 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 320.17 (4/18) 5 : 332.8

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.66 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 517.0 (4/18) 5 : 564.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.01 (4/18)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 253.05 (4/18) 5 : 255.2

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.0 (4/18) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.5 (4/18) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.4 (4/18) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.2 (4/18) 5 : 17.4

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.8 (4/18) 5 : 12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.9 (4/18) 5 : 12.8
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.0 (4/18) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.3 (4/18) 5 : 12.8

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.09 (4/18) 5 : 14.94
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 49.2 (4/18) 5 : 64.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.1 (4/18) 5 : 70.4
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 325.7 (4/18) 5 : 366.6

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18
5 1
35.8% 0.3%
29.4% 0.1%
5 1
21.7% 0.2%
31.5% 0.1%
5 1
28.8% 0.2%
30.4% 0.1%
5 1
19.9% -0.1%
26.5% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108085
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
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