How to predict the demand for your customer facing services in April 2021

How to predict the demand
for your customer-facing
services in April 2021
Wednesday 14 October
Policy in Practice
webinar

Housekeeping
www.policyinpractice.co.uk
● Audio check
● Please ask questions throughout
● Download, polls and a survey
● Aim to finish by 11:30 with optional 15 min demo
● Slides and recording will automatically follow
● Follow us on Twitter via @policy_practice

Today’s speakers
Zoe Charlesworth
Director of Policy and
Operations
Policy in Practice
@ZoeCharleswort1
Louise Murphy
Senior Policy and
Data Analyst
Policy in Practice
@_louisemurphy
Clive Jones
Head of Revenues
and Benefits
Luton Borough
Council
@lutoncouncil
Fabiana Macor
Policy and Data
Analyst
Policy in Practice
@m__fabiana

Give the best support
you can to help people
on their way
policy
software
analytics

A team of professionals with extensive knowledge of the welfare
system. We’re passionate about making social policy work
We help over 100 local authorities use their household level
data to identify vulnerable households, target support and track
their interventions
Our benefit calculator engages over 10,000 people each day.
We identify the steps people can take to increase their income,
lower their costs and build their financial resilience
Policy in Practice: What we do

Agenda
● In a changing world, why plan ahead?
● Understand the future better using modelling
● Understand changes to caseload - Luton's experience
● A positive look ahead
● Questions and answers
● Optional 15 min demo of the software shown

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Poll: Which uncertainty most concerns
you?

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Over to Zoe

COVID-19 presents new challenges
The pace of the COVID-19 crisis has meant adjusted forecasts - a shift from
relative stability to ever-changing ‘possible scenarios’
● Out of work benefits doubled to 2.7m by July 2020
● 15% of the 9.6M on furlough are estimated to become unemployed soon
● Labour market stats: redundancies have doubled in the last quarter
Key upcoming changes:
● End of furlough
○ new Lockdown Job Support Scheme and Part-time Job Support Scheme
● COVID-19 benefit changes to expire
● Brexit
Councils will need to take uncertainty into account when making decisions
about front-line services and budgets for 2021

● Council Tax collection has suffered
○ 1.3 million households in arrears, worth £500 million (25 June)
○ Reduction to income is primary (although not the only) reason for arrears
■ Being a key worker and having to shield were also factors
● The homelessness ‘landscape’ has changed
○ 14,500 street homeless placed in emergency accommodation by June
○ 5,400 people in temporary accommodation as part of “Everyone In”
■ Funding for the initiative has since stopped
○ £13M for winter support
○ Moratorium on evictions has ended but 6m notice and lockdown
measures
○ Impact of the benefit cap
The story so far ...

Future changes
What we know:
● November 2020 - Minimum Income Floor to be reinstated
● April 2021 - other COVID-19 measures to expire:
○ £20/week increase to UC Standard Allowance, Housing Benefit income
disregard and Tax Credits
○ LHA rates reflect cheapest 30% of rents
What we know might vary:
● The unemployment impact of furlough
● Impact of local lockdowns
● Will there be a last-minute u-turn on welfare uplift? Party pressure for the
Chancellor to keep the £20/week uplift

Why plan ahead?
Immediate impacts
● Benefits caseload and resource impacts
● Demographics of the new low-income cohort (unemployed or working
reduced hours) - who will need support?
With implications
● For the council:
○ Council Tax Reduction - caseload, cost and arrears
■ Cost per household increasing since more households out of work
○ Local service delivery
○ Budgets and financial planning
● For households:
○ Wider issues around debt and arrears
○ Homelessness
○ Financial resilience and poverty

151515
Poll: What’s the biggest change you
are making to your frontline services
in view of COVID-19?

161616
Over to Louise

2020 is not what we expected
● Previously we were modelling into 2023:
○ Before COVID-19, councils wanted to look to the future when UC was
rolled out, the National Minimum Wage was increased, etc.
● 2023 now seems like a long time away!
● Our clients wanted:
○ To know what will happen if the COVID-19 benefits measures are
stopped in April 2021
○ To know what will happen when the furlough scheme ends
○ Flexibility to make the future modelling reflect their local situation
○ Information about the impact on the council (eg CTS caseload and cost)
as well as on individual households (poverty rates etc.)
● We can model best and worst case scenarios to give councils a range of
possible scenarios to work from

Modelling future changes in LIFT
Preview

Caseload changes
● Complicated situation: interaction of COVID-19, move to UC, CTR scheme
change
● Total HB and CTR caseload has dropped between Feb and Oct 2020

What we can model: demographics
Preview
Feb 2020
Aug 2020
April 2021 - best case
April 2021 - worst case

What we can model: cost
We are modelling the cost of CTR in 2021 based on:
● Actual CTR awards of the current CTR cohort
● Average awards for the projected 2021 cohort based on:
○ Average CTR awards for in work, unemployed and out of work
(carer/disabled/lone parent) households in current cohort
○ Projected number of in work, unemployed and out of work households in
2021 (using the demographic distribution of the new CTR cohort that
joined after April 2020)
● We also merge benefits data with CT arrears data to predict impact on
arrears in 2021
● Amidst all the uncertainty, it is important to get as much as possible out
of the data you have.

222222
Questions with Clive

232323
What changes have you seen in your
caseload over the last few months?

242424
How are you using your data to help
you plan for the future?

252525
What are you doing in response to the
changes 2020 has brought?

262626
What advice would you give to other
local authorities and the organisations
they work with to plan for the future?

272727
Conclusion

You can make a difference
● Create a sustainable CTR scheme
● Update your debt recovery policy
● Encourage people to claim all the central-government
benefits they're eligible for. If people receive more money
(DWP and HMRC) their financial situation will improve.
They will be more likely to be able pay Council Tax bills,
and less reliant on discretionary support from local
authorities.Often missed benefits include:
○ Free School Meals, Warm Homes Discount, Healthy
Start vouchers, free prescriptions …
● Target your discretionary support effectively
● Use data to help you support your residents

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Questions and answers

● LIFT Platform
● Benefit and Budgeting Calculator
● For up to date information on the welfare support available see
www.policyinpractice.co.uk/coronavirus
● Download our new product brochure
● Follow up email with webinar recording and slides, with links
● Short survey to follow now
● Next webinars:
○ Wed 11 Nov: How to find the right debt solution for everyone
○ Wed 9 Dec: 2020: A policy review of the year, and look forward to 2021
Practical tools that can help
www.policyinpractice.co.uk/events

313131
Poll: Join us for a look at the software
in more detail

323232
Over to Fabiana for a quick look at the
software

1. Focus on one cohort with LIFT

2. Identify to street level with LIFT
12
4
3

3. Engage with tailored support (LIFT)

3. Engage with tailored support (BBC)
This family can save money
on heating
They’re £600 a month better
off in work
They’re better off on
Universal Credit

4. Understanding the household journey

5. Track outcomes over time with LIFT

393939
Thank you
Clive Jones, Luton Borough Council
Zoe Charlesworth, Policy in Practice
Louise Murphy, Policy in Practice
Fabiana Macor, Policy in Practice
hello@policyinpractice.co.uk
0330 088 9242

How to predict the demand for your customer facing services in April 2021

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