8th Executive Leaders Forum 28.02.2018 r.

1. Macroeconomic perspective
for Poland
Witold M.Orłowski
Chief Economic Advisor
8th Executive Leaders Forum
www.pwc.com

2. PwC
Links with the Western Europe…
Źródło: Eurostat
Poland
Euroland
-5,0
-3,0
-1,0
1,0
3,0
5,0
7,0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
GDP growth rate

3. PwC
Quite good global prospects
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP growth: data and IMF forecasts
World
United States
Euro area
Source: IMF

4. PwC
Solid growth…
Source: GUS, NOBE
- 12,0
- 10,0
- 8,0
- 6,0
- 4,0
- 2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
1Q2009
3Q2009
1Q2010
3Q2010
1Q2011
3Q2011
1Q2012
3Q2012
1Q2013
3Q2013
1Q2014
3Q2014
1Q2015
3Q2015
1Q2016
3Q2016
1Q2017
3Q2017
1Q2018
3Q2018
1Q2019
3Q2019
Main trends in GDP and demand
Private consumption
Fixed investment
Forecast
GDP

5. PwC
2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Net exports
Investment
Inventories
Consumption
2016 2017
-4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
Q4
GDP
Consumption plays a predominant role in supporting
growth…
Contribution to GDP Growth
Source: GUS

6. PwC
Source: GUS
Investment to GDP ratio
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (est.)
Firms
Public sector
Result: the falling investment ratio…

7. PwC
What is happening with the fixed investment?!
Source: NBP
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
Investment decisions of Polish firms
Idle capacities
Firms without
liquidity problems
Firms expecting
increase of demand
Firms declaring
new investment
Utilized capacities

8. PwC
More investment of the firms urgently needed
• Shrinking idle capacities
• Risk of inflation
• Disappearing unemployment and increasing labour costs
• Fourth Industrial Revolution
• Morawiecki Plan

9. Current tax audit landscape
in Poland
Tax and personal safety in challenging tax
environment
28th Feb 2018

10. PwC
Tax audits tools and information sources
Companies registry
Tax returns and
other information
Intrastat, Eurostat
Online cash register
Aplikacje Krytyczne
sp. z o. o.
SAF-T Storehouse,
SAF-T bank
accounts, SAF-T
invoices, SAF-T
Books
National Statistics
Register (GUS)
The introduction of
the Register of
public debts
Banks cooperation
Cyberaudits –
hackathon
STIR National regaisters
SAF-T VAT
Amadeus,
Infocredyt, Royalty
Source Database,
Royalty Stats
Database
24/7 audits of
business bank
accounts
Central registers
Others…
Binding rulings

11. PwC
Tax audits carried out and completed by Customs Fiscal
Offices and Tax Offices in 2017
customs fiscal audits (UCS)
4,718
In 2017
tax audits were completed (US)
26 869
In 2017

12. PwC
Trends in tax audits
VAT frauds
Restructuring
TP
Salaries schemes
Intangible services
WHT
Reporting obligations

13. PwC
Tightening the tax system – steps planned
by MF
CIT
MF’s plans and ideas on transfer pricing for 2018
• New special department for transfer pricing and valuation in MF
• New regulations to increase powers of tax officials and TP trainings for
tax officials
• New CIT-TP form – more information about transactions
• More restrictive regulations, better analytical tools, well-trained staff and
more effective controls in TP area
13

14. PwC
Tightening the tax system – steps planned
by MF
VAT
MF’s project of amendments to the VAT Act
• New rules for issuing invoices based on fiscal receipts – indicating the
purchaser's tax identification numer (NIP) on a receipt
• Upgrading the so-called fuel package
• Exclusion of VAT exemptions for e-commerce companies (i.a. electronics
and household appliances)
• Unjust enrichment
14

15. PwC
Tightening the tax system – steps planned
by MF
VAT
Online cash registers as MF’s priority
• E-cash registers will send real-time data on fiscal receipts to the Central
Repository of the Cash Registers (CRCR)
• CRCR – central database on retail sales, maintained by the National Tax
Administration (KAS)
• Introduction planned gradually from 2019
15

16. PwC
Tightening the tax system – steps planned
by MF
VAT
EU plans on e-commerce, supported by MF
• Agreement on the introduction of a VAT e-commerce package, which
aims to limit VAT fraud in the area of e-commerce
• One of the goals – forcing online selling platforms to ensure that VAT is
collected on transactions between suppliers from third countries (e.g.
Aliexpress) selling goods to EU consumers
• New regulations are to enter into force in 2021
• MF is considering such changes in polish regulations
16

17. PwC
Fiscal Criminal Cases
VAT depletion of high value
17
Since March 2016
633
Completed cases
696
Ongoing cases
225
Indictments
PLN 1 838 276 337
VAT amount
505
Convictions
34
Prison sentences

18. PwC
Prevention
• Verification of contractors
• Tax policy
• Tax process management
• Forensic audits
• Training for employees
Other
• Ongoing professional support (law
firms, tax consultancy)
• Binding rulings
• Internal audit and/or
implementation of compliance
function
• Defense file preparation
• Professional support in litigation
Compliance
• Tax reviews
• Moot tax audit
• SAF-T tests
• Goods classification
• Verification of TP compliance
How to be prepared?
18

19. © 2017 PwC Polska Sp. z o.o.
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Jan Tokarski
Director
+48 502 184 651
jan.tokarski@pwc.com