Finding Distressed Listing Leads in 2013

2013 SHORT SALE & REO TRENDS
With Foreclosure Inventory Analysis

What we’ll cover today

• What is RealtyTrac?

• Where & Why Foreclosure Starts are Surging

• How Short Sales Are Moving Further Upstream

• When & Where REO Listings May Rebound

• Analysis of foreclosure inventory

• Practical resources

©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 2

A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO REALTYTRAC

WHAT REALTYTRAC IS

• RealtyTrac publishes the country’s largest database of
foreclosure and bank-owned properties
– Data from over 2,200 counties, covering over 92% of U.S.
housing units

• #1 Foreclosure site – 1.5 million foreclosure and bank-owned
properties nationwide
– More coverage, more detailed information than any
other national provider

• Unmatched property evaluation and transactional tools
– HomeScore, Equity & Loan Info, Comp Sales, Online
Offers, Foreclosure-MLS Match, and much more


WHAT REALTYTRAC IS NOT

• The RealtyTrac foreclosure database is not an “MLS for
foreclosure records”

• Most of the properties in the RealtyTrac database are NOT
on the MLS anywhere

– Less than 20% of the homes in foreclosure are listed

– Only 15% of REOs are listed

– Many MLS organizations prohibit including any REO or
foreclosure information in the property listings
– RealtyTrac gives you advanced notice that it will likely be
‘For Sale’ in the near future.


WHO RELIES ON REALTYTRAC DATA


WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS SURGING

The Big Picture


NATIONAL TRENDS

More than 10 million
More than 10 million
starts and nearly 55
starts and nearly
million completions
million completions
(REO) since January
(REO) since January
2006
2006


NATIONAL TRENDS

66Percent Bump in Q2
Percent Bump in Q2
2012 corresponding
2012 corresponding
with National
with National
Robo-signing controversy came
Robo-signing controversy came Mortgage Settlement
Mortgage Settlement
to light in late 2010,
to light in late 2010,
accelerating downward trend
accelerating downward trend


STATES WITH BIG INCREASES


METROS WITH INCREASES


WHY THE INCREASE

• Many states coming off artificial lows from last year
thanks to foreclosure processing delays.

• Those delays were caused by a variety of issues that
impacted some states more than others
• Fallout from robo-signing (paperwork and documentation)
• Intervention by the courts
• Lack of court resources to handle foreclosure volume
• Attorneys general investigation into five major lenders, with a
settlement finally reached in April


Longer Foreclosure Timelines N.Y.
N.Y.
timeline
timeline
longest in
longest in
country
country

Texas is
Texas is
shortest in
shortest in
country
country


A Tale of Two Foreclosure Markets


IMPLICATIONS

• Home prices in some of these markets may break
through a false bottom as these foreclosures are listed
and sold in 2013.

• More properties foreclosed (REO) in the next six to 12
months and more REO listed for sale in the next 12 to
18 months.

• More distressed homeowners interested in listing their
homes as short sales in the next six to 12 months in
these markets.


PRE-FORECLOSURE SALES ACTIVITY
Increased 22 percent
in Q3 2012 to highest
in Q3 2012 to highest
level since Q2 2011
level since Q2 2011


PRE-FORECLOSURE SALES PRICES
But average prices
But average prices
down 55percent from
down percent from
year ago
year ago


OUTNUMBERING REO SALES

Both hardest-hit sates
Both hardest-hit sates
like California, Florida
like California, Florida
and Arizona
and Arizona

And states with
And states with
longest foreclosure
longest foreclosure
processes like NY & NJ
processes like NY & NJ


OUTNUMBERING REO SALES


SHORT SALES MOVING FURTHER UPSTREAM

Q3 U.S. RESIDENTIAL SALES


STATE TRENDS

31 states posted annual
31 states posted annual
increases in non-
increases in non-
foreclosure short sales
foreclosure short sales
in Q3 2012
in Q3 2012


METRO TRENDS

Legislation forcing
Legislation forcing
lenders’ hands in
lenders’ hands in
metros like Las Vegas,
metros like Las Vegas,
Seattle and Portland
Seattle and Portland


POTENTIAL POOL OF SHORT SALES


BUT A SHRINKING POOL

Nationwide 1.6 million
Nationwide 1.6 million
fewer underwater than
fewer underwater than
aayear ago
year ago


REOS SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE

REO activity has
REO activity has
flattened out and even
flattened out and even
jumped in November
jumped in November
after falling off aacliff
after falling off cliff
following robo-signing
following robo-signing
in October 2010.
in October 2010.


REO SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE

55percent increase in
percent increase in
November first
November first
annual increase in
annual increase in
REOs since Oct 2010
REOs since Oct 2010


REOS REBOUNDING IN SOME STATES


METROS WITH INCREASING REOS


IMPLICATIONS

• More bank-owned homes listed for sale in these states in
the next six months
• On average it takes 195 days from when a property becomes
an REO to when it is sold

• While banks are preferring short sales to REOs all things
being equal, not all properties can be sold via short sale.
• Banks are not completely done with purging their balance
sheets of non-performing assets via REO.


REO SALES ACTIVITY
in Q3 2012 from
in Q3 2012 from
previous quarter
previous quarter


REO SALES ACTIVITY Average REO sales
Average REO sales
price up 77percent
price up percent
from year ago
from year ago


WHERE REO SALES ARE STILL ON TOP

Both states with aa
Both states with
short foreclosure
short foreclosure
process like GA, TX
process like GA, TX

And states with aa
And states with
large backlog of REOs
large backlog of REOs
like IL and OH
like IL and OH


WHERE REO SALES ARE STILL ON TOP


ANALYSIS OF FORECLOSURE INVENTORY

THE BIG PICTURE

• 10 million U.S. foreclosure starts since Jan
2006

• 5 million bank repossessions during same time
period

• 1.9 million pre-foreclosure (short sales)

• 1.5 million properties still in foreclosure
process or bank-owned

THE BIG PICTURE
Foreclosure inventory
Foreclosure inventory
rising again after hitting
rising again after hitting
57-month low of 1.3
57-month low of 1.3
million in May 2012
million in May 2012


THE BIG PICTURE

85% of REOs
85% of REOs
are NOT Listed
are NOT Listed 80% of
80% of
for Sale
for Sale Defaults and
Defaults and
Auctions not
Auctions not
yet listed for
yet listed for
sale
sale


STILL PLENTY OF DELINQUENCIES


Estimated Absorption Rates

Assuming that no additional properties come onto the
market (and foreclosures stop TODAY):
•20-month supply of bank-owned REOs
•21-month supply of default & auction properties
•20-month supply of delinquent properties

SOURCE: RealtyTrac


UNSOLD REO INVENTORY – WHERE?


FORECLOSURE INVENTORY BY VALUE

More than 70 percent of inventory is
More than 70 percent of inventory is
valued at $200,000 or less
valued at $200,000 or less


2012 ACTIVITY BY SQUARE FOOTAGE

More than 75 percent of activity was on
More than 75 percent of activity was on
properties with 2000 square feet or less
properties with 2000 square feet or less


INVENTORY BY YEAR BUILT

One-third of activity was on properties
One-third of activity was on properties
built after 1990
built after 1990


INVENTORY VARIES BY MARKET

42% of activity was on properties built
before 1981
before 1981


INVENTORY VARIES BY MARKET

after 1991
after 1991


LENDERS WITH MOST REO INVENTORY


MOST IN-FORECLOSURE INVENTORY


REALTYTRAC RESOURCES
• Local Stats & Trends (free and embeddable)
• http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/

• Real Estate News & Reports (free)
• http://www.realtytrac.com/content

• Professional subscription (address-level access)
• http://www.realtytrac.com/professionals

• Buyer leads (exclusive territories)
• Call 800.306.5930


Finding Distressed Listing Leads in 2013

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