Bahrain's previously strong economic growth has been trimmed somewhat by the global recession, though the economy should still expand in 2009. Falling oil revenues and tightening liquidity have had a considerable impact. With automotive sales closely linked to economic performance and consumer confidence, this has had an inevitable effect on the vehicle market. Nonetheless, Bahrain's flourishing financial sector has held firm, with the authorities winning praise from the IMF in May 2009. This has stood the country in good stead. BMI thinks that the small car segment in particular is likely to hold up well in the country as consumers become more cost conscious. Arabian Automobiles CEO Michael Ayat said in October 2009 that the global slowdown had generated demand for smaller cars, as credit was not available for more expensive larger cars. In 2009, Bahrain had GDP per capita of US$14,013, significantly lower than many other Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, and so value offerings are likely to have greater resonance. In addition, the economic crisis has made a sizeable dent in purchasing power. BMI forecasts that GDP per capita fell 31.8% in 2009 in Bahrain. However, low inflation may help the market somewhat in Q409. Year-on-year (y-o-y) inflation was only 1.5% in October, having peaked at 6% in mid-2008. Lower inflation means that real incomes are eroded less by price increases, giving individuals and households more scope for expenditure. Inflation may pick up in 2010 as the economy recovers, however, and the country has relatively limited scope to tackle the problem due to the currency peg to the US dollar, which effectively obliges the central bank to mirror interest rate movements by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). With the US economy still in difficulties, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates considerably in the short term. While this may mean that inflation in Bahrain is not kept tightly in check, it is also likely to mean that the cost of borrowing remains quite low, which should be a boost to the automotive market, which is in part driven by credit. On the commercial vehicle side, Bahrain's market has benefitted from the country's burgeoning economy in recent years, though growth will be curtailed by the downturn in 2009. The government has launched a crackdown on overloaded and un-roadworthy trucks, which have been seen as a major problem, Gulf Daily News reported in November 2009. As a consequence, hauliers and other commercial vehicle operators may look to upgrade their fleets. Meanwhile, Bahrain's FTA with the US is having an impact on passenger car imports into the country. Between 2002 and 2008, sales of US-made cars in Bahrain increased more than six-fold. They now account for 30% of all cars imported into Bahrain. This has primarily been due to Bahrain abolishing duties on imports of US cars as part of the FTA. The slide of the US dollar against the euro has also made US-made cars comparatively cheaper. As a result, we expect the US share of Bahrain's autos exports to continue to grow over the coming years as the US dollar will remain weak against the euro.
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Bahrain Autos Report Q1 2010
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Bahrain Autos Report Q1 2010
Published on December 2009
Report Summary
Bahrain's previously strong economic growth has been trimmed somewhat by the global recession, though the economy should still
expand in 2009. Falling oil revenues and tightening liquidity have had a considerable impact. With automotive sales closely linked to
economic performance and consumer confidence, this has had an inevitable effect on the vehicle market. Nonetheless, Bahrain's
flourishing financial sector has held firm, with the authorities winning praise from the IMF in May 2009. This has stood the country in
good stead. BMI thinks that the small car segment in particular is likely to hold up well in the country as consumers become more cost
conscious. Arabian Automobiles CEO Michael Ayat said in October 2009 that the global slowdown had generated demand for smaller
cars, as credit was not available for more expensive larger cars. In 2009, Bahrain had GDP per capita of US$14,013, significantly
lower than many other Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, and so value offerings are likely to have greater resonance. In
addition, the economic crisis has made a sizeable dent in purchasing power. BMI forecasts that GDP per capita fell 31.8% in 2009 in
Bahrain. However, low inflation may help the market somewhat in Q409. Year-on-year (y-o-y) inflation was only 1.5% in October,
having peaked at 6% in mid-2008. Lower inflation means that real incomes are eroded less by price increases, giving individuals and
households more scope for expenditure. Inflation may pick up in 2010 as the economy recovers, however, and the country has
relatively limited scope to tackle the problem due to the currency peg to the US dollar, which effectively obliges the central bank to
mirror interest rate movements by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). With the US economy still in difficulties, the Fed is unlikely to raise
rates considerably in the short term. While this may mean that inflation in Bahrain is not kept tightly in check, it is also likely to mean
that the cost of borrowing remains quite low, which should be a boost to the automotive market, which is in part driven by credit. On
the commercial vehicle side, Bahrain's market has benefitted from the country's burgeoning economy in recent years, though growth
will be curtailed by the downturn in 2009. The government has launched a crackdown on overloaded and un-roadworthy trucks, which
have been seen as a major problem, Gulf Daily News reported in November 2009. As a consequence, hauliers and other commercial
vehicle operators may look to upgrade their fleets. Meanwhile, Bahrain's FTA with the US is having an impact on passenger car
imports into the country. Between 2002 and 2008, sales of US-made cars in Bahrain increased more than six-fold. They now account
for 30% of all cars imported into Bahrain. This has primarily been due to Bahrain abolishing duties on imports of US cars as part of the
FTA. The slide of the US dollar against the euro has also made US-made cars comparatively cheaper. As a result, we expect the US
share of Bahrain's autos exports to continue to grow over the coming years as the US dollar will remain weak against the euro.
Table of Content
Executive Summary .....5
SWOT Analysis .7
Bahrain Autos Industry SWOT .7
Bahrain Political SWOT .. 8
Bahrain Economic SWOT .9
Bahrain Business Environment SWOT .......... 10
Regional Overview .....11
Change Ahead For The GCC . 11
Trouble In South Africa And Turkey, Uncertainty In Iran 14
Impact On Production .... 15
Business Environment Ratings ...16
Bahrain Autos Report Q1 2010 Page 1/4
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Table: Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings ... 18
Bahrain ' Business Environment Rating ....... 18
Limits Of Potential Returns .... 19
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns .... 19
Industry Forecast Scenario ...20
Bahrain ' Autos Industry Historical Data And Forecasts 22
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario ... 24
Bahrain ' Economic Activity . 27
Competitive Landscape ........28
Bahrain Autos Sector ' Key Players .. 31
Regional Developments .. 32
Regulation 37
Company Monitor .......38
Regional Case Study: Nissan Motor .. 38
Production 38
Table: Nissan MEA Production Facilities .... 40
Sales . 41
Table: Nissan MEA Distributors ........ 41
Company Profiles .......43
Al Zayani Investments ..... 43
National Motor .... 44
Country Snapshot: Bahrain Demographic Data ......45
Section 1: Population ...... 45
Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 45
Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 46
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 46
Education . 46
Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ..... 46
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 47
Employment Indicators ... 47
Consumer Expenditure, 1999-2004 (US$) .... 47
Average Annual Wages ... 47
BMI Methodology .......48
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model ... 48
Sources .... 49
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