BMI forecasts that the Romania will account for 2.24% of Central Eastern Europe (CEE) regional power generation by 2014, and remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,936TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 13.8% during the period 2010-2014. CEE thermal power generation in 2010 was around 1,294TWh, accounting for 50.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,441TWh, implying 11.4% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 49.1% ' in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Romania's thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 30.3TWh, or 2.34% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.36% of regional thermal generation. Gas is the dominant fuel source in Romania, accounting for an estimated 36.0% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED). Gas is followed by oil at 29.1%, coal at 18.2%, hydro at 10.3% and nuclear with a 6.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,472mn toe by 2014, representing 13.5% growth over the period 2010-2014. Romania's estimated 2010 market share of 2.62% is set to rise to 2.68% by 2014. In 2010, Romania will have accounted for an estimated 2.71% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with a forecast market share of 2.67% by 2014. Romania now shares fourth place with Poland in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, having this quarter slipped behind Russia. The score reflects a relatively low level of import dependence, a high proportion of renewable energy, growing PED and an established competitive landscape. Over the medium term, Romania it is likely to be left behind by Poland, while Slovakia and Hungary below it pose little threat. BMI expects Romanian real GDP growth to average 3.4% a year between 2010 and 2014, with an assumed 2010 decline of 1.9%. The population is set to contract from 21.4mn in 2007 to 21.1mn in 2014, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to rise 72% and 21% respectively. The country's electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 45.6TWh in 2010 to 54.3TWh by the end of the forecast period, while theoretical surplus generation should rise from an estimated 10.4TWh in 2010 to a forecast 11.4TWh in 2014, assuming 2.7% average annual growth in generation in 2010-2014. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Romanian electricity generation of 38.9%, which is towards the upper end of the projected range for the CEE region. This equates to 18.2% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 17.3% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 16.2% in 2010-2014 to 18.8% in 2014-2019, representing 38.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 33% in hydropower use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth, with nuclear use set to rise by 58%. Thermal power generation is forecast to increase by 32% between 2010 and 2019. More detail of BMI's long-term forecasts can be found later in the report.

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Romania Power Report Q4 2010
Published on October 2010
Report Summary
BMI forecasts that the Romania will account for 2.24% of Central Eastern Europe (CEE) regional power generation by 2014, and
remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt
hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,936TWh
by 2014, representing a rise of 13.8% during the period 2010-2014.
CEE thermal power generation in 2010 was around 1,294TWh, accounting for 50.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2014 is 1,441TWh, implying 11.4% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 49.1% ' in
spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Romania's thermal generation in
2010 will have been an estimated 30.3TWh, or 2.34% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.36% of
regional thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel source in Romania, accounting for an estimated 36.0% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED). Gas is
followed by oil at 29.1%, coal at 18.2%, hydro at 10.3% and nuclear with a 6.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast
to reach 1,472mn toe by 2014, representing 13.5% growth over the period 2010-2014. Romania's estimated 2010 market share of
2.62% is set to rise to 2.68% by 2014. In 2010, Romania will have accounted for an estimated 2.71% of regional nuclear energy
consumption, with a forecast market share of 2.67% by 2014.
Romania now shares fourth place with Poland in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, having this quarter slipped
behind Russia. The score reflects a relatively low level of import dependence, a high proportion of renewable energy, growing PED
and an established competitive landscape. Over the medium term, Romania it is likely to be left behind by Poland, while Slovakia and
Hungary below it pose little threat.
BMI expects Romanian real GDP growth to average 3.4% a year between 2010 and 2014, with an assumed 2010 decline of 1.9%.
The population is set to contract from 21.4mn in 2007 to 21.1mn in 2014, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita
are forecast to rise 72% and 21% respectively. The country's electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated
45.6TWh in 2010 to 54.3TWh by the end of the forecast period, while theoretical surplus generation should rise from an estimated
10.4TWh in 2010 to a forecast 11.4TWh in 2014, assuming 2.7% average annual growth in generation in 2010-2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Romanian electricity generation of 38.9%, which is towards the upper end
of the projected range for the CEE region. This equates to 18.2% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 17.3% in 2010-2014. PED growth
is set to increase from 16.2% in 2010-2014 to 18.8% in 2014-2019, representing 38.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of
33% in hydropower use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth, with nuclear use set to rise by 58%. Thermal power
generation is forecast to increase by 32% between 2010 and 2019. More detail of BMI's long-term forecasts can be found later in the
report.
Table of Content
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis .... 7
Romania Power Business Environment SWOT .... 7
Romania Political SWOT .. 8
Romania Economic SWOT 8
Industry Overview .... 9
Romania Power Report Q4 2010 Page 1/5

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Global . 9
Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014 9
Central And Eastern Europe 10
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) 11
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) 12
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe) . 13
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm) . 14
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe) . 15
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh) .. 16
Market Overview ' Romania . 17
Primary Energy Demand 17
Power Generation . 17
Power Consumption ... 18
Regulation And Competition 18
Pricing ... 20
Power Transmission .. 20
Business Environment .... 22
Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings . 22
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings .... 22
Overview Of Romania's Power Rating .... 23
Rewards . 23
Risks . 23
Legal Framework.. 24
Infrastructure ... 26
Labour Force ... 27
Foreign Investment Policy ... 27
Tax Regime . 28
Security Risk .... 28
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 29
Romania's Power Outlook ... 29
Generation .. 29
Gas-Fired ... 29
Oil-Fired 30
Coal-Fired .. 30
Nuclear Energy 30
Hydro-Electric . 31
Renewable Energy 31
Power Costs 32
Transmission .... 33
Table: Romania's Power Sector, 2007-2014 34
Table: Romania's Thermal Power, 2007-2014 .. 35
Table: Romania's Non-Thermal Power, 2007-2014 .... 36
Table: Romania's Power Costs, 2007-2014 .. 37
Assumptions And Methodology . 37
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .... 37
Long-Term Power Outlook .. 38
Macroeconomic Outlook . 38
Romania ' Economic Activity ... 40
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 41
Global Snapshot.... 41
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Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019 ... 41
Regional Outlook .. 41
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) ... 42
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe) . 43
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) 44
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) . 45
Table: Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) .... 46
Romania Country Overview . 46
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 47
Competitive Landscape ... 48
Transelectrica .. 50
Enel ... 50
E.ON . 51
Termoelectrica . 51
Hidroelectrica .. 51
'EZ ... 52
Company Profiles ... 53
Hidroelectrica .. 53
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data ... 55
Section 1: Population . 55
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 55
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 56
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 56
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 56
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 57
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ... 57
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$) ... 57
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010 ... 58
BMI Methodology ... 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 59
Power Industry 59
Cross Checks ... 60
Sources .. 60
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