'
A Study of Climatological
Re;earch
as it PertainstoIntelligence
Problemr
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ThUI do<umonl Is o working papor prepared by tho
om .. o! R.,..a,oh ond De.elopmont ol lhe Cent,ol In,
leKi~enoe /igoncy tor I!!! ln,.rnal planning putpo.. ,.
Th,refore, 1.ho views ond .. no1u,lon, contained h.,..ln are
th ... or llt• eulhor and ohould nol be int,rp"'1e~ as nue,-
.. ,lly oepN""1tting lhe olli,lo po,ilion, ellhe< o•pl'fl&<d
111"tmpl!ed, of the Centro) lntelll1onoo Agency,
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
SUMMARY
WHAT ARE THE INfELLIGENCE ISSUES?
CLIMATIC PHENOMENA AND THE STATE Of THI! ART
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The Sta to of the Art of Cllmatology
Thern;lal Pl1!rlbutlon of llnorgy
Energy Reaching the Earth
Earlh's Atmo1phere
Current Approaches to Cllmatolo!IY
Lamblan Schoo!
Smagorlnsky•!ar School
Budyko-!an School
RECENT MILESTONES
• The Wi,cons!n Study
People. Place, and Approad1e1
San Diego Conforenco
National Climate Plan
CONCLUSIONS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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SUMMARY
Tho we,1em world's leading climatologists have confirn,ed recent reports of a
detrimemal global climatic change. Tho stabilJty of most nations i, based upon a
dependable sour<e of food, but this ,tabUlty will nol be possible under the new climatic
era. A foreca•Iby the Unlversily of Wl1consin project,; that the earth's climate 11
return-
ing lo thal of the neo-bo,oal era (I 600-i 8S0)-a.n er• of,drought, famine, and political
i.:nl'listin the western world.
A ro,pon,lbUlt)' of lhc Intell!gonce Communily i, to a,sos.se nelion's capabll!ty and
s!abU!ty under varying lntomat or e~tomal pressures. The .,,ossments nonnally Include an
anaTy,li nf the country's .social, economic, polil!cal, and military ,ecton, Tho implied
economic and polllical lnt<)lllj;encelssu61resulting from climatic change range far beyond
the tradltlnn•I concept of Intelligence. Tho anaty,ls of 111
.. e issues I~bued u))-On
two key
questions:
Can the All"ncy depend on climatolo8Y a, a science to accurarcly proj!l<llthe
fulure?
What knowledgo and uuder.tandlng Is available aboul woJld food production
and can lho consequences of a large climatic change bo a,,..,ed1
Cllmate hes not been a prime con,ldoratlon of !ntcllijlence analy1i• becau,e, unUI
recently. H hllS nol cauied any ,igniticant Pllrturba!lons to the slatu, of major natlons.
This ls so bc,.. use during SOor tho la,t '60 years the Earth has, on tho average, elljoyod
lhc best agricultural climate ii nee the olevonth century. Anearly twentieth century world
food 1urplus hl]Wcred U.S. efforts 10 maintain and eque!iu farm production and in·
comes. Cllmalo and Its effect on world food production was considered to be only a
minor factor not worth consideration ln the complicated equalion or oountry ""ossment.
Food production, to moel lhc growing demand, or a geomctlically ospandlng world
popula11on. wa, alway• oon,tdcrod to bo a q"e,tion of metchiTI~technology and tclence
lo lhc problem.
The world Js rotumlilg t"! lhe type of ellmele which has esisted over the last
400 years. That I,, lhe abTionnal climate of agrlo"lt"ral-optlmum is being replaced by a
normal climate of lhe noo-boreal era.
The climate change began !n 1960, but no one lnelu~!ng (he cllmatologish; recog-
ni-.ed l!, Crop failure, In the So,iet Union and lndla during the flrst part of tit• ,i,tie,
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were otlri~uted to the natural fluctuation of tho weather, h1d!owas ,upported by massive
U.S. grain shipment, tho! fed over JOOmillion people. To eat, the Soviets slaughtered
their Jiveslock, and Premier Nikita Khrushchev was quietly deposed.
Popu!atlons and lhe cost per hecrare for lechno!oglcal investment grew eKponen-
ifaUy.The world quietlyIgnored Uw,·,arning provided by the l 964 crop failure and raced
to keep ahead of a growing world population througli massive inveitments in energy,
t~cltno!ogy, and biology. During the remainder of the J960s,the climate change remained
hidden in those back washes of the world where death through starvation and dhea,e
wore already s common occurrence. The ,ix West African countries south of the Sahara,
known a, !he Suhel,!ncludlng Mauretania, Senegal, Moil, Upper Volta, Niger, and Chad,
became lhe flm viclim~ of the cllmele chanso, The failure of the African monsoon
beginning in !968 has drinn IMic countrie, lo tho edge of economic end poll!lcal ruin.
'Ibeyarenow effoctlvely wards or the United Nations and depend upon the United States
for~ majority of their food supply,
Later, in !he !970. one naUon aft@Ianother experlenoed the impact of tho cHmatk
cllango, The headlines from around tho world told a slory still not foll;- undentood or
one we don't went lo fae@,such as:
llurma (March 1973)-llttle rko for export duo to drought
North Korea (March l97l)-record high grain Jmport JOf!ccted poor ;972
h.,..,e6l
Costa Rica and Honduras (1973)-wor,t drought In 50 years
United Slates {April 1973)-"flood of the c,ntury along the Great Lakes"
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Japan (1973)-cold ,pell seriously damaged .:rop,
P•klstan (March 1973)-lslam plannod i,mp,irt of U.S. grain to off-set crop
fa!lure due !o ,lrought
Pakistan (Augusl 1973)-worat flood in 20 y~ars affected 2.8 m!ll!on acro1
N'orth Vfotnam (Septembe1 I<r/3)-lmportanl crop damaged by hoary rain,
Manila(March J974)-mllllon, in A,!a faoo erllical rioo shortage
Ecuador (April 1971)-shorta~ of rice reaching cri>!, proportion; polHica!
repercu,,,nm could threaten Hs stability
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USSR (June 1974)-poor weather threatens to reduce grain y!e!d, in the USSR
Chlna (June 1974)-droughtsan~ floodi
India (June 1974)-monwons late
United States (July 1974)-hoavy rain and drouBhts caut• record loH to poten·
tin! bumpercrop.
During tho IHI yoar evoryprominent country has launched a major new cLimatic
forecasting p1ogram.
USSR reorganiu.d theit cllmatk forec.. tln11poups and replaced the head or
thi Hydromoteorologlcel Service.
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Japan Is planning to launch a major earth synchronous (U.S. manufactured)
meterologlca.l sateU!te and hu secured complete coOectkm, processing, and
analysis systems from t~eU.S.
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China has made m; ,or purcha .. , of metwrological collection and analysis
equipment from weslein industriol ·sources.
India J; ,tudylng the app!lcation of climatic moditicatlon to eecure a more
homogenoou, distribution of moistuie from an erratic drougllt/!lood monwon.
The U.S. NationalAcademyof Solonce, J;prepari.ng Jt, recommendationfor a'
Notional Olmatic Re1e•ro'hProgram.
Tho Nol!onal Science Foundation (NSF) and th• N~tlonal Oceonopaphlc and
AtmOllphetkAgency(NOAA)have developed a NatlonclClimatePlan which
wil! be pni,ented to t!wOffice of Mangement and 13udgel(OMII) for funding in
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Clillljll• i, now a cri.tlcal factor. The PoLit!c,;of food wll! become the central Issue of
evoryKOvomment. On July !9, 1974, the Ki~• Domostic Service reported ma11lve rllins
and quoted an old provorb rrom Lvov OblHt, ''.The rains come not on the day ~or which
we l"•Y but only when we are making hay." The cUmate of the noo-boroal tione period
h~1
lllrived.
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WHATARE THE INTELLIGENCEISSUES7
In l972 the lntelllgence Community wos raced with ,wo issue! concernini;
climotology:
No melhodo!0Qle1available to alert policymakera or adverse·climatic change
No tool, to assessthe economic and rolitical impact of such a cltanee.
In th,t yoor the Soviet Union lost a significant portion of Its Nipter wheat crop
when the ,nows fallcJ to provldc adequate cover and a sharp freoze destroyed the ex-
po,cd vcgctaNon. Tho summer moisturo that normally is cnrrled by lhe westerlies did not
arrive in the Ukraine or tl,c nmtllern Oblo,ts (polilcial·economic dislricts) of the Soviet
Union, Hen""· the wheat harvest was delayed, and • significant portion of the ripened
crop found Itself blanketed by lhe wintennow, Tho rcsi is economk hls!ory,
Since 1972, tho llf•in crlsl• hss inlcnsined. l!Qchyear the worltl consume, ap1>roxl-
maMy J.2 billion metric tons. Since 1969 the storage of groin hu, dccroa,cd from
600 million metric tons lOleMthan I00 million metric tons-a JO.cl•yworld supply,
Wilh global cllmallc-induced agriculturJI fnilure, of the early !970.,, 1he,rnbmty of
mony government~ has been ,criou,ly lhreaienod. Many govemmcnls have 3on<1
103r<ot
lengllis Lohide their ai:rlcolturnl predicament! from othe, coontric, "';;,..,11
a, from thcl,
own people. It hu become increasingly imporatlw to dc!orminc whether 1972 wos nn
Isolated event or-·as the eimoologists predicted-• majot sh!fl In the world•, cllmato,
Tho economic and poll!lc,I impacl of a major climatic shift Is almost beyond com•
prchcnSlon. Any nation with 1clentlfic knowleUsc of the atmosphcrfc sciences will chal-
kngc lhl, natural climatic changl. The potential for intcrnationil connlct due to con-
trolled cl!mate modificalion c,,n bo • reality .inthe 1970s. History h•• dcmonslratcd !liat
people •nd J<>Vcmmcnt•wllh nothing to lose have tr•ditionally ,hown little regard fer
treaties 111dlntcrrolional conventions, Thu,, any country could puriuc a climate modifl-
eolion course highly delrimcntal to adjacent nations In order to cmu,e It• own e<onomic,
rolitical, or social survival.
ln November of 1974 the United State, will be participating In 1he Wmld Food
Conl'crcnee in Romc.'ltily. Somo major Jssou or this conference willbe the ability of the
world Lo fud itself; how shortages will be met: and who will provide the neerted food.
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Timely forecutlng of climate and its impact on any nation ls vital lo 1he planning and
exocutinn of U.S. policy on .roclel, economic, and politlca i,suos. The now climatic era
brings e prom!re of famine and star,ation to many area• of the world. The re,ulfant
unrest caused by the mass movement of peoples across bonier.. as well 3i the at!endant
Intelligence quostiono cannot ho met with existing analytical tools. to addition, !he
Agency will be faced with tracing and antidp.1!lng chmete mod!flcation undertaken by a
country to relieve Ill own situation at the detriment of the United States. The implication
of ,uch a modification must be carefully assessed.
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CLIMATICrHENOMENA ANDTHE STATEOF THE ARf
Since the late 1960,," number of fornboding climatic prediction, has appeired in
various cltmatic, metcrologjcal, and gaoloiiic,I periodicals, consistently following one of
two Iheme,.
A global climatic drnnga was underway
This climatic change would creale worldwide agriculture fuilurcs_in ihe 19/0s.
Mosl mctcorologisls argued that they could no! 11udiny jus(ffication for tile.sopredi,,
tions. The climalolo[:ists who argued for the propositioi, could not provide definitive
cmsal cxplrnations for their hypothesis.
brly in ihc J9'10, a !>Otieo
of "dvcrse dimallc anomalies oc,urred.
The wmld's snow and ice cover had incrc•sod by al least 10 W IS pcrccnl,
ln !he c;i~ternCan~dlun ar,,aJ,f 1hc ,retie Greenland, below normal lcmpor•·
lures were rcc-ordedfor 19 ~onsecutivr mm1lhs. Nothln~ like tl1lsl,ad lwppcncd
in thelost 100 yc,rs.
l11c Mo.s<'OlW
re~lon ,ulfored UsWOlllldrooghl In Oirec 10 llvc lrnndred years.
llrough! occurred in Ccntml Amerlc", tl,c sub.Soham. South Asi,, Chin,. ,nd
Au01t"li,.
Mis,lvc Ooods took plucc ln 1hcmldwcslcrn United State,.
Withina ilngle ycor, ,<lverslty hnd vlsited almost every i,ution on the glohc.
The arelrncologisls ond tho climatologists document a rather ~rim l1i,tory of the
wllural pres,ures instigated t,y change, in climalk regime. Recently. some archaeologi,l,
and historlon, have been revising old theories about the fall oi numerous elaborate and
powcrfu! aivili,alions of he pasl, such as !he Jndu1. the Hiltfles, t11cMycenaean, and tJ1c
Mall empire of Africa. There is considerable evidcnco Ilia! the.se"empires may l,ave been
undone not by barbarian lnvadorsbur by climatic ch•ll8"· Bryn Mawr arohscologis(, Rhys
Carpenter, hos tied several of those decline• 10 spcclnc g1obal cool periods, 111ajor
and
flllnor, !ha( affected the global e!mospheric circulalion ond brou~hl wave "POil wave of
<lroughtto formerly rlch os,icultural land, .
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Refugee, from tho.e coUap.siogcivilizatlons were often able to migra!e to better
land,, Reid Jhy,on, of tile llnivcrsil) of Wisconsin'sInstitute for E,,v!ronmental Srndie,,
sp"cula~ that a new rainfall pattern might actually HWlveugrlculmro in ,ome once.
llouridting regions such .s tho northern Sahara and the l,anian plateau where Dariu.s'
annles fod. Tlti• wu~IJ be of lit!le comfort, however, to people affiietcd by the sornh·
ward encroa.;hmcnt of the SaltarJ. 1110 world is loo densely popofo!ed ~nd politic•lly
divide<!to accommodat, ma,,
m,gration,.
Yet to ondcrst~nd the lj'•ults of climatic clrn11~e.
we must know something of (l,e
ba:dcsof climatology and the ponµlea,,ocfate<lwith this scionc"O.
Tue Slale of !he Artof0lm11tology
The climate of a region on the Earth 11said to he represented by a ,tuti,llca!
oulleclfon of its wc•tltcr condjtion, during a ,pcclfied Ilene !TI!utvol.Tl,is interval i,
usually ot least two or l11reedecades; for lhc /gency', purpose,, we will be dealing wtlh
months and year,. (limofolo~y. "'derived from the Greek word dima mionlng indinu·
tlo11of the 1un's my,, rcllccls the imporrnncc "ltributeJ by the eurly student, uf dlmatol·
ogy lo the innu,u,·c or the ,un. Fo, some unknown reason, !hi, importance wusvirlu,lly
i~norud hr dimolologisls until" decode ago.
The keys lo un<lc,,tan<lingdima1ology arc:
The ucccpmncc of lhc principal tho! m,lure obhors , hclcro~encom dl.l!r/!Jr,//,m
1!{!'11'"'l/Y·
l:m'l(Y t<'l11'1111,g
liw Earll! is mo<lda1cd by vori•lion, in the north', orbll. the
indim1tlon or tlw brt:i·s axis wl1II,In orbit, the miteri,ls in the Eorth's ulmos-
phcru (!lusi, moi,ture, etc./, and cncrb'Yn11ctuitlon, ,n the sun lt,olr,
"Jhe i:,ml, '.,ornro,.,plwre
absorbs only " ,inall 1>orco11tagc
or the cn<f!IY
.:ommg
,Uro,1lyfrom 1h,·sun.
Thermal Dl,lrlhul!on af Energy
Pammotcr, ,ueh as rcmpcllturn, rainfall, and wind velocity can be ~irccly related lo
lh, •erogcncous <li&lribulionor thermal cncfl!Yon !he ,urfsec or the Eur!h, T!rcy are
the 1>uy.sic"I
monifeslolion, or, global ,y,!con whlch auempt, to ottuin n thcrm;,I cq~;.
llhrlum Ihrnu]l), the inlernhanse or potential and kinctk cnCf!IY
between the ,tmnsphcrc
and lhc ocean,.
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Enersy Reaching the Earth
There are two major r,,:1,on.sfot the heterogeneous distribution of eno,gy on tile
surface of the Earth:
Clou<l
formation,
Surface albedo- ratio of ru,ergy rellect~d to energy received from the ,un.
Ei.h affects tho amount o!' solar energy absorbed by the Eo.rth,
The ~nergy required for the physlcol proces,e, taki11gplace in the Earth-atmo ..
phc,e-occan system Is almost lotally provided by the sun. Each minute the sun radiates
~pprnximate!y 56 ~ 10"6 calories of enc1gyof whkh 2 x io3 calories II"' squsr~ centi·
meter per minute arc incident u]>l)nour outer ~tmosphere, The exact amount of solar
radialim, Ihat actually is incident Mpcnds upon the lime of year, the time of day, and the
latitude, Bare bnh obsorbs ond transforms •~proximately 7S perctnl orall vi,iblo light
impinging upon it. The r~maindcr of the energy ls reflected back lnto space.
Figul'e I depicts the utmo,pheric energy as it;, rec6ived from the sun, The surface of
the Earth, he"!ed by the absorplion or vlsible or sl10rt·wovesolar radfotion, converts thi,
energy !o thermal or lon8·WUver•diation which, !n turn, convecUvely and conduclfvely
hc1ltslhc dlmosphere.
In" typical region of scaltrred cloud, 2 percent of the incident ,i,iblc solar energy 1,
ubsorboll in the ,ttsto,phere. FiOcen percent of the remoining energy i• typlcatly
obsorbcd in the lropospl1erc a:id rnnvertod to thermal energy.
Forty.seven per<."entof the l'isu,I radiation e,cmually reaches the ,urfacc--J I per.
cent directly and 16pcrcrnl lhrough almospheric diffusion. Note that 36 po,cent of tho
original energy isrdkc!cd back into sp,ec-23 percent from the tops of cloud,, 6 percent
!hrougl, <liITu,ionin the troposphere, and 7 peroo11tfrom tlw ,nrfacc.
His not obvious how the Earth malnlaln, Its enCl"l!Y
bolanco. The Earth's surface
. absorbs aboul ! 24 kilo·langleys of sol,r r~lotlon e,ch year. Energy per unit area is
·expressed in langleys (ly) or kilo·langlcys (kly). One longl~yis equwalent to l calorie per
square centimoter, The Earth effectively radiates 52 kly of long.wove energy to lhe
atmosphere. Tho dlfforoncc between incoming and ourgoing rodlat!on is 72 kly which is
tho not energy bnlonce, The global radiation balance ;, zero avern~d (approximately)
over Ilic year, bot Ir will not cgual ,ero either ,ousonally 01 annually ln o gJvenlatitude
wnc,
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The almo,phcre is uniformly a raJiotive OOal
.sinkal oil lo!iludes, while the Earth's
surfac-...-e~ccptncor !he pofo,..!, a lleol souroo. Energy must therefore be tran•forred
from the surface to he a!mosphcrc to keep the surface from warmin~nnd the atmos-
phere from coaling. The •Wical heat exd1ange occurs mainly by evaporation of water
from the surfa<'l' (heal loss) and condensation ln the atmosphere (heat gain) and by
., conduction of sensible hc~t from the surface and turbulent diffusion into the atmosphere
(con,cetion).
An cxump!c of energy balance is repreaeoted in Figure I, The atmosphere can goin
energy from a variety of sm,rcc,. The troposphere gains lS percent of its thermal energy
through direct conve"i<>nof v;·,ualenergy to thermoI ene_rgy.
or !11e
black body (thermal)
radMlon from 1he Earlh', surface (')8 percent), 91 rer~nl Is partially absorbed in the
a1mo,phcr<. om! cherem, lnil1$7 percent is mdloted into space, The stratosphere provides
on o,lditlon"I 2 percent lo 1he troposphere; convoction (22 percent) and conduction
(S percent) a,-...oun1
for about 27 percent.
lite surface, then. hos1wosources of energy, It ~ains47 percent in vlsuil,to·thcrmal
energy tron.fonnotion and 78 percent in bock radiation. The surface loses 98 percent to
the atmosphere through long (infrared) waves, and 22 percent throu~h convection &nd
5 percent through conduction. The 11•ns
and o,sc, Jn tho almo,phere-sllrfacc system are
time dependent.
A l•ycr of clouds, ,now and kc con rollcct 80 to 90 percent of UievisibleIlght back
intn space. Because climate depends primarily upon the amount or solar radiation that ls
ab,orbcd by tho Eortloand almo,pl1erc,albedo become, impmtunt. Albedo ls lhe ratio of
the cncr~y rocclved from the sun and 1ef1ecledby die Eorth, The greael lhe albedo, tho
colder tl1cE"rth.
Clouds ,:an seive to rnodcralc wlrn1evercllmate trend Is under way: if the Earth's
~urface lcmpcruture climbs for whatove1n,,son, more waler evapoiate, and may rise to
form more ,:loud cover. This lncrc•scs lhe albedo ond lower, the rnte of heating, Ice and
snow. on lhc other hand, provide po,iti•e feedback; if the awragc yoor-round tempera·
norc decrca,-c•, the c~lenl of kc and snow coverage increase, •nd relleets more of tho
Jncumin~ r,,nlloht bock lo ,p;,,:c. The result is 10 lower lhe r,te of heating s!lll more,
P"Ukulorly Inthe region, doses! lo the poles.
There 1, ycl another ,x,ol<l~utor to tho planet", olbedo--alrborne partfcle,, partlcu·
larly 1hc ""!rl'mely fine du,l p.trtlcle, lhot Jrnvobeen carried 100hish in the atmosphere
to be washed out by prcdpitation. Many o( ttte,e partielas remaln aloft for months or
yeors. TIHIS,i heterogcnoou, dislrihullon of clouds m,y eventually cause a heterogeneous
Ji,1ribu!ion of thermal energy around ,he E,r111,
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Ear1h's Almosphere
Many mechanisms are employed by the Earll, !o brrn~ i!sclf into thermo equilit,.
rium, When 1hcrmal radiation from laml s<urfac..,,
heats !he air direc!ly "bove it, the n,;.,g
air causes a chioge In Uteloc"! atmospheri,· orossure. The iplnning of the Earth ond !he
rosulrnnt pressure difforcntlal, are physically ,nanifo,ied by lhe ~aseous currents known
as "'wind." Thermal radla1ion fro,u. the Earth also cau,e, the evnpora!ioo•conden,atlon
cycle t!ial force,, moisture rro,~ land ond ocl'"ln sources lo enler the atmosphere
(Fl~u"' 2). Thus, the 11tmosphcre becomes one of the major meuns of equalizing the
lhc,mul e11orsydistribution ,round the world.
For c>vaporatlon10owur. both a drlvln~ fo,cc ond " source or eneri:Yin the tran,fof'-
m"lion phosc urc required. RodMion i, the muln •n•tBY source. In the presence ol"on
adequate supply or energy, n10s!preclpi'.utlon c•1poratcs before i! has a chance to run
off. The occnn, Jo.somoro wuter by cvaporntlon (M perecnl) than they guin by precipit,-
lion (?7 pcrcont). 1110dcr1cil is made "l' by run off from tlie continents (7 percent) over
wltich prncipitution exceeds eyapora!lon.
TI1coccins provide shout 84 percent of globol evaporation, whllc the continents
provide lhc remoining 16 percent, The change of ph,sc rrom a liquid state to" ••ror
re<1uim, lh1,t energy be provi~cd to overcome die lnrnrnwlccular "tlmctions between
w-atw mokculcs, 1110latent hoot required lo evaporate one !(mm of water ot O"C.L<
600 calorics. Condcn.a!ion I, rciponsihle for roloasing this energy. 11,us Uw 7 percent
horizontal •dvcclion or wale, vapor to !110lood mo.. eon1ributos significantly Lothe
Wh1;ror of energy to the contincn1,. The normal Jynamlc mo•cmcnt of air and vopor
mo,,,, Iscontinnously di1wlcd al tlte cquallt.atlon of energy inthe o0<1an,
"' woll "' l"nd
ma'™l>,
Sin,c ~O percent of the Earlh', ,urfo,c i, water, pr!ncipolly lhc oceons. it woold
'"""' '""sonoble thut mcchonisms J1adto c,1,1 In the oceans to offset the helcrogcncous
distribution of thermal cncr~y. Throuyh~ut· "11the major,o,ean,, ercat currenTSor waler
llow between enerro,·,ink• and ,umps. The winds crootcd hy 11,cocean's radiated energy
form olmospl1eric tide,. A, in e,aniplc. !ho l!fCate,t "'"" of waler on the Earlh- tho
Pocillc Oc.•on is constantly deprc,,cd OM meter on the cost side a,compared with Lhe
we,t ,tue to an almospllcric pro.. uro an,1moly '
F,~urc ~ ,hows that the mo,! dingcrous effect of the global coolin~ trend ha, been a
chauie 111
almosphcric circulation and rnlofoll.1'J1C
chonge c1!n!orson the bchavlor of the
drc,unpolar vorcex. the II'""'
cap ol' hiBh-ahltnde w)nd, revoMng "bout !he poles from
we,,! to cail. The bro"d hand ucru~, Iha Northern Hcn1lsphercmarks 1he upproxirnate
.1ou!hernedge of the wind ,y,1em a, It w~,during 1hosummertime In the early 1960,. Jt,
,oulhcrn edBCdctennlnes 1he loc"tion of the p,omlncot hlgh·pro,;,;uroregions, Indicated
!,ere hy norrow dockws,;,-,pirnlin~ arrow, 1e1,rcs,;,nting
win~, nowlni outward. The hl~h8
-12-

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result from dry winds !hat descend a~er traveling at high altitu~es from the equator,
They created !he wo1ld's great deserts and detemiine the northern limit of penetration l>y
ruin-bearing summor monooon, (indicated by heavy, northward-trending arrows), The
limit is known as tho "intcrtropical convergoncczone."
Bccaui.eof lhc global cooling trend, the Jr,weredge of the circumpolar vortex has in
recent years smycd forther sonth during 1hosummer, In Ll1c
position shown by the ,111nller
b-Jnd ne;r the c,1ua!Or.It ha, hpt the high p,cs,ure zone, farther south too, blocking tlie
man,00,1, out or r~gions where they ore vital co tho survival of hundreds of millions of
people. Al tbc ,omc time, tho vorto~'s S11mi,tal/onory wave pattorns have altered,
affocliog rait>falfpallerns in tempemle regiom and m•king the climote more variable. The
deeper wave over the U.S.. for example, Isbel!eved responsible for re"6nl cold wintors in
the We;t and mild one, in the East, The West ha, been subjected to north wind•: the Fla,t,
lhc return now. Allhough ,ome evidence cxls(s that tlte eoollng Liendhas affoctc<lwind
pall cm, in lhe Southern Hemisphere oswell, weat'hcrstolislics nre sconty.
Current Approaches to rnmatology
There arc three bum· school, or pllilmophles or climatology, The firat Is centered
uronnd Profo,.,or H. H. Lamb, who I• currenlly !he Dlrecto1 of the Cli1Tiatlc
Rcwarch
Uni( o! lhc Univcrslly oflinst An~Uain !he United Kln~;lom.1111•school contends thai If
u cli1na1ologj1tIs 10 project fut)'re climate,, he mu,t ~nderstand who( has oocu,rcd in lhe
past, 11e second is characlerlied by Dr. Jo,eph Sma~orlnsky, who is lhc Director of the
Gcuphy,Jcat Ptutd Dyn"mics Laboratory ol Princeton Univcrsily. This center beliovesth"t
" complete undcrslunding of utmo.sphcriccin:ulatioa is suflicicnt for climatic foroco,!ing,
The third i, best represented by Dr. M, I. Budyko, on eminent Soviet cllmatolo)ll;iJ
1heoMlclan. Ile purauc• the hypothesis that an understanding of the Lot:~di,lrlbulion of
lhermal energy i• necc.. ory for climalic forecaslin~.
The l.ambla11
.«·hm,I ls bli11Cd
on the es!abllsluncnl of cllma!ic statistical trend,. A
great Mal or cfforl ha,, been expended by the folo•versof this philosophy In quontil'yln~
tho quaUMlvc description, pro,idcd by h!,torlcal source, (ancient court scribes, ship's
logs, and scholars). TI1eir reconstruction of ellmaUc condU/ons has reached back 5,000
years. Thi, particular 011proachwos nlmost totally depondent upon man-made records. In
recent years, the use of geophysical indicator, such as tree rlnp, wd/mentary deposits,
und Alctle lcc laycrlng has added ,ub,lan!ially lo Lheglobal data pool,
Unique scientific methods have been developed which allow the cflmatologist !O
determine fhc hf,1orical (ntenBlty •nd distribution of,olar mfl,tion and precipitation on
~ worldwide ba,os, Defore these devclopmonts, it wa, necessary for the scienlist to lnfor
climatic variability based on many indirect factors. Though !his work is still quire Incom-
plete, preliminary raport, by Dr. John lmbrie (Brown University) have provided a fa,ci-
niting portrayal of the Earlh's climalology over the Ja,t SOmllllon year..
-I $-

•
Conent evidence lndicotes that UteconUnental areas whicl1ware once In the tro~ioal
cHmaUc regions of this planet, for aome reason, underwent a rapid dimotic chall/je,
Beginning appJ'Oximately 20 million yem ago (miooone period), large dimatlc Virlations
characterl,cd by whal is known as the Ice Ages began to make oppearanooi. Dr lmbrie's
group has been "hie lo establish that these kc Ages are cyclic in nature 31ld consist of
approximately a 90,000-yeur glacial period followed by a relatlvely brief warmlni; peak
for l0,000 to 12,500 years, called the interglacial periods. Thus, os we see ln Figure 4
bused upon a sample space of 20 million years, lhhl rather narrow period of lhe inte..-
glaciol span is a comlstcnt feature.
lnvc,tlgat!ons indlcale intCl'llacialperiods never extended beyond t2,500 yco•s nor
ho, lho period ever been loss than J0,000 years (Figure 5). The cfoclal periods may be
charactcrfaed by IOl'l<
continental leeshed, that extended oeross
vsst region, of Europe,
North America, and Asia. This phenomena b well documontcd on the North Amoricon
continent ond came to an end approximately 10,000 years ago.The present intelj!laclnl
era ls charactorirod by a thermal maximum which occurred about 5,000 to 3,000 B.C,
During this time, many mojm deserts in lilt world-us we know tl1cm-were formed, such
nsthe Soham,the ArabJon, and great Mongolian desert,.
Climate chanijO at the ond of these ntc(;ladal tlll'C periods is rnther ,harp and
dramatic. Exc,,llont hislorlcal cvii.lonce
oxi,ts from ~rea, on tho European plains whlch
once were ook forc,ts 11ndwore later tran,formed into poplar, lhen Into birch, and finolly
Into tundro within a !00-yea, spon. Thus, the researchers of 111cCLlMAP group
(CLlmatlc MAPing) hypotho<lro !hat 11,e clrnngc from "n interg]edol to glacial tlmo
period could toke plooo In less than 200 yeors. An c~ample of repid climatic changes ire
the remains of fmicn ma,todons completely preseT'lcd ln S!borfon and North AmcrlcQn
ice f!l(Cks,
Sclenti,1s are conlident that unless mon is able to cffc~Uvcly modify the climate, the
northern regions, such as C'unada, the Europoan pert of the Soviet Unlo11,and major arc,,
In norlhcrn Chin•, wlll ogain be covc"'d wllh 100 10 200 feet of ice ond ,now. Tlmt this
will occur witbin the next 2,50il years they are qH/tc positive; that it may occur sooner is
open to spccnlnlion.
11,e Smagorin•ky-lt1n,c!wt1/ of climatolo~y l• ba,ad upon the meteorologls's
attempts to extend the predlctlvc capobilitlcs of the equation, of ~uid motiwl, Meteor-
ology deals principally with the forecasting of atmospheric p,c.,ure differential, and tho
pro>On,l!y ror given ~~ttems to result IJlmin, ,now, ice, high wind,, etc. It doe, not take
Into account solar or Earth radi~tion nor hydrological (I.e., evaporation) variahlM.
Since the availability of aerial, numerical computers in Chela!!er half of the 1940s,
the r.ietcorologist has developed a system of models to predict near.term atmospheric
varlntio~,. The basic tool employed by U,Js
group i, the Genera! L1rcula!lon Model. The,e
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DOREAL DDREAL ATLANTIC
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SUMMER
July-Aug
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Air temperature, in the lowlands of central England. Trends
of the suppo,ed 1000-year and 100-yoar averages ,inco
10.000 B.C. (the latter calculated for the last millennium)
{af/lN L~mb, 1966). Shaded ovals indicate !he apprO'~!mete
range,withinwhich the tempemure,mrmatesl!eand er1or
margins o! ,:,e radiocarbon due,. Note that the pre·bornal
pha"' begins about B300 B.C. following the end of the
Glacial Period. ·
Plgw-e
5. Clior1111ol
Varinlon
in Cm.Ira!England
•18·

nwdels describe the effects of lame·scale almosphe,ic motion and arc treated oxplidtly
by numerical integration. For almost 30 years lhe meteorologist has tried unsuccessfully
to extend his p1edktive capability past a 24-hour forecast. The Smagorinsky-ian
approach, however, is the currently accepted methodology within the Urtited States
Gowrnmont and recolvo, more than 90 percent of all the 11liearchand development
funding available
therein,
The Burlyko·ian .c//ool b based upon the thcot~!lcal work of Dr. M. I. Budyko, who
is associotcd wilh the Global Meterologkal Institute in Leningrad. The basis of tills
approach to fhc climetologicol problem Is Dr, Budyko's 1955 popcr entitled, "The Heat
Balance of the Earth's Surface." This J>llpcradvanw, !he hypohesls that ell atmospheric
motion, ore dependent upoi> the thermodynamic effect of a nonhomogeneou, dlstrlbU·
Lionof energy on tho ~~rth's surface. Though th!Bwork originally rn~I with oppooltion
from the world's metoorolo(listS, It ls now accepted as a more reasonable basis for
developing a ,nc«ssful climatic prediction model, The earlloc, simplistic explanation or
dimntc was basically Budyko-inn.
'

RECENT MILESTONES
Explanation of the scfonUf!cphenomena and elaboration of the three methodolog-
lcal s,;hoob provide a background for more recant developments-developments which
have more relevancy to requirement, as they might emerge 1Lltho lntelllgence Com•
munity. The Universlty of Wisconsin's work appeafli to be providing the cohesion for
continuing research in this oreo.
The WisconsinStudy
The UnlverJiWof W!scons!nwa, the tirst accredited a<!l!domic
center to forecast tl,at
a major global climacic change was un~erway. Their analysis of the Icelandic temperature
data, whfch they contefld has hlslorlca!ly been a bellwether for northern hemlspllere
climatlc condlllons, indicated that the world wa~ returning lo the tyne of climate which
prevailed during the tirs( part of tile last century (l'lgure 6). This climatic change could
hove for-reaching oeonomlo and social Impact, They observed that the climate we have
enjoyed In recent decades wa, extremely favorable for agriculture, During this period,
from 19JO 10 1960. the world popufol!on doubl~d, na!ionol boundaries were redrawn,
Lhoindustrial revolution became a worldwide phenomenon, marginal lends began to be
used in on effort to feed • vastly incrcoli<dp01>ulatlon,and .<pedalcrop strains optimally
suited to prevallins weather condition, were developed and became parl of what wa,
e,ll~d the "green revolution:·
The climate or the l 800. wa, f•r loss favorabfc for ,grlculture In most areas of the
world. In the Uniled States during that ocnlury, the mldwcst Brnln-p1oduclngams were
coole, and wetter, and snow line• of the Rus.slon,tovpcs lasted for longer period• of time.
Mo1c extended period• of d·ought wore noted in the area, of the Soviet Unton now
known a, the new lands. Moreover, extensive monsoon failures were common around the
world. affectlng in particular ChJna, lhe Phlllpplnes, and the Indian subcontinent.
The Wlioonsln analysis <iuostioned whether a return to theic cllmatlc condlt!on,
could support a population !hot h" grown from I.I billion in )850 to 3.7S bllllon ln
1970. The Wiocon,ln group predicted that the climate could not support the world',
populalion since lcchnology offers no lmmcdlite aolution, Further, world grai), rruerves
·21•

•
cunontly amount to less than one month; thu,, any delay in avai!ablllty of ,upp!ies
implies ma,, starvation,, They also contended tlta! new crop .trains could not be dewl-
opod overnight, and marginal land, would be less suited or perhaps un,ul!ed to agr;cul·
tural production. Mor,over, they observed that •1!11culturowould become even more
ene'lll' dependent in a wo,ld of declining resourco,. Their "Food for Thought" chart
(Figure 1) conveys !<Orne
idea of the enormity of the problem and the precarious state in
whlch most of the world', nations could 11ndlhemselvos if /loe W/,co11s/11
forecast i,
corree1.
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7. Food for Thought

•
A, an eaamplo, Europe presently, with an annual mean temperature of 12°c. (about
530F.), ,uppotts three-persons per arable hectare. lf, however, the tenl(>erature declines
1°c. only o little over two persons per ltecfare could be supported and more fhan
20 pereelll of the J>Opul~!ioncould not ho fed from domostic source,. China now sup-
port, over ,even persons per arable hectare; a shjft of !°C. would mean ii could only
suppotl four persons per hectare ~i drop uf over 43 (IOrtCnf.
A unique a,pect of the Wi,consin onuly.,is was thcircsrimatc of the duration or this
climalic chuni:c. An amdysls by Or. J.E. Kutzbuch (Wisconsin) on the rotaof climatic
changes during lhc p11:ccdin~I60Qyear.. lmlicatcs an ominous consistency in the rate of
which !he drnnt!C take, place. ThC maximum !cmpernf11redrop normally occurred wilhi,1
40 years of lnclpllon. The eirlie.1 relurn oecurcd wilhfn ?Oyeall's,(Plgurc 8). The long·
c,1 period noted"'""' )80 yo,rs .
•••
NorU,ern
Hemi1phouc
T,n,p,raluro
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ANALYSIS. a,.J.E. K,t1!>ocl, un;, ,.,;,y o! Wl,eoa,in ,, Madlrnn
14eo"''"'" leOOyo.,<t
Figure 8. ~teanTemperature Variation
During a New Olm1Uc Era
·24·
.....

The study of tho imp.ct of climaHc change on pi,t and present cultures hos been a
cooperative Ycnmre between the .roclol ,eicnllst, the hlstmion, and the climo!ologl,t. U
has been shown {Figure 61 that over the lost J0,000 yenrs there have been many climatic
changes of regional ar.d global significance. Detailed description, exist ,howln~ how the"'
cnmatlc ~hangc, affected llw people or these roglons. The Wis,:onsin forecast suggests that
tho world is returnins to 1he cUmatk regime that existed from the 1600s to the 1850,.
normally, ca!lcd tile nco-boreal or "litfle kc Age." (Tllls climi!C wa; physlc:illy ch,,..
actcriLcd by brood strip., of excess and deficit rain IiiII in lhc middle latitudes ond ex ten·
slvc failure of the monsoons.) The political, hMorlc"I, and eeonomie consequence, of this
climatic era have ho,ctoforc been masked by Lhe historian·, preoc,;upatlon wilh the
technical progross. We have rcoont evidence of lhi, typo of faulty "nalysis which has
per,;1'"dcd the modem agrocconoml!t that man's agriculturnl growth during the lost
40 years was only due 10 technology and nol 1hc ogro-dimalk optimum of that period.
During the last noo-boreol em greot segments or tho world population were dee!·
mated, The great plasues of Europ,.,, lndla, Africa, ood Russia lhat occurred durlng !hi,
pcriud could have been Lliedirect re1ull of itarvat!on and malnutrhlon. ln the past year
data from Lhc Sahel. E!luopio. and India indicate that for each death caused by •tarw-
Hon, ten people died of epidemic diseases such as smallpox and cholera. Bodie, weak
fron, hun~er are ca~y prey to Ille normal pathoscnk cncmfos of man.
lh,· ~uv,:rnmcui, and people or norlhern Europe once ,1rul,lllled co ,urvl•c In an
eminmrnenl or p,•r,r,1cnl crop failure and dcdinln~ ropulotion, On Ille other hand.
Sp.11n.l'UTI
ugsl. ,1ud licily enJnycd a 9oldcn oge. "Tltelrdiinalc assured tlwm of" rclii ble
~·"" "" roml pru,fudmu. Th,· German .,la!e,, Ru,.ia, lhe <>lhc,Slavfc nalion,, and 10 a
,·er!,1111
''"''"! ,,,•en I·11~l,111tl
and Fronce. lived In Ihe !Wlllghl or 1)ernra11entwinier .
..1-,,, C~O1car, 11111,!
oi"111<·
world suffered major economic and politkul unre•l which
,-,,.,1j lo,· ,hrec!I) '" indiroc1ly "Uribmcd 10 the dlmo1c or the nco-borcul cm. The great
l'"'·'l" 1.urnn,· of I~4~ in lrcl,nd wu, 11,c1,,1 ~i,p or ll"' ..lillle 1,-cuse." Yet (or e•ciy
,k,111,"' lr<"l.t1Hl
1lo,,.-,,
w,•n, 1,·o in lhc A,l,n eoun1rlc.s.
Wh.11w"uhl a rernm h, thi, climate moon l~dny"! B•scd on 1he Wisconsin study. it
would mean 11>,1
lrnli, will h,>e; major drnu~hl every four ye•" and could only iuppo11
chree,fn11r1h, nl" her prnwnr populaUon. The wo1ld te.ww would ha,e lo $Upply 10 Lo
SO millino ,nettle fon, or ~rain """II year !O prc,cnt 1hc doa1h, of ISOmillion Indian,,
C"hiua.with a rnajor famine every five years, would ru4ulre ",uppfy of SOmillion meIrle
!on, of jloain. Th,• Su-.el Onion W<JUld
lose Kaiakh•tan for grnin rroducUon thereby
.i1,,wi"~ " yearly lo" of 4H ml!llon n1c1rlcton, of ~rain. Canada," major ex1,orler, would
lo,c over SO pe":cnt in rroduelion capablllly and JS ro«ent In exporting, Northern
Europe would lo<e ~5 to .10percent of ib pre,cnl producl cap-ability while the Commou
Markc1 countrk• would ,cro Iheir c,pof1s.
-2S·

People, Place, and Approaches
A limited n"mber of people within the United State, ar~ involved In dimatological
,.. earch. On the West Coa,1 there are two significant groups. The firsI is under Dr. Lury
G•tes et the RAND Corpol'll!lon In Senta Monica. Dr. Gales' work ha, been ,upported by
ARPA and ;, lheoretically Smagorinsky-ian. He has worked far three years under en
ARPA grant utilizing basically the UCLA two-level Geneml Cir,,ulotion Model. Thoush
the work ha, been theoretically intere,tlng and has dcveloP<'dmany new soflworc capo,
billlies, they have still not arrived 01 an oi>crelional system. Dr. Gales has b·ccn,trongly
lmprc.. ed by developments In tho Budyko-/en school and Is in the process of modifying
!hclr simulation program, to Incorporate some of the more recent thermodynamic devcl-
opmcnh.
The Sertpp, (n~tltuf!on ;uoup ut La Jolla, under the direction of Dr. John Isaacs. or.d
more res-en!ly with the inclusion of Dr. J<tome Noma/,, h.. followed both the Lombion
and lludyko-ian 3.nproachos to d!motological problems. Th,,ir m•in capabilities have been
In !he dovo!opmenl of cllmalological ob,cl'ablc,. Dr. Isaacs' ea1ly work, wltich has been
continued by Namai,' resear<h. w•s dircclod al the lhcrmodynamk lnnuMc• of lhe
oc'ians on wol'ld atmospheric circulation. At p,esont, no pragmatic climotologkol foro-
co,liog is Wing pursued al Serlpp,,
The atmospheric sciences group al lhc University of Ariwno is rolitlly Budyko-ian
Dr, WIiiiam Sellers who head, thl, group I, one of the s>ountry's londing technki,ns ir
lludyko-ion mc!hodulugy. His r,,-,1 publi.,hcd di111atk model in 1%8 was not well re·
ccived by lhc Smagorinsky-ion., or by !he Budyko,ian, willlln the world .:ommunlty,
They did ucknowlcdl!". howcvc,, th"l ii was th,:. first pragmatic systernatl>.lng of 1his
uppmuoh. Hi, lo!e,t model. developed In 197:. has hod a ,i8nmcao1 effect in cry,101illng
lhi, whole philosophy and dcmon,1rn1ing, prJgmall~ dhnatologlc"f model,
There arc 1wo climele i:roup.sin 1llcmidwc,l one heing NCAR (National ('enter for
Atmospheric Ro.. areh) at Boulder. tolorndo. Their "fforls have hcen lo explore highly
dlsaurcg:ited atmospheric mod,I,. Tho ,ccoud group. at the University of Wisconsin, is
under Reid Bry,on and John Kul1.bach. bol h n1,ntloncd ca,lfor. Their work at Wisconsin
rcp,c.,cnl, the forJ point for dim. 'ologico1 rcse•rch in !ho Unite~ States, Thiy arc tho
only poopk within the a,adcmic community in 1hc United Statos that ha,c a ,oa,onol
climotol<,gtcul forecasting system.
Th,• oaslern c,t.,hli,hmcnl. consisting of Princeton and tho Masaachusott1 Institute of
Tc,hnolo11Y. is primarily Smagoriniky-an, They are basically NOAA-funded and. lhough
primarily engaged in increasing the accuracy of meteorological forecasts, have attemp1cd
wlthoul ,uc,a,ss 10provide climalological forcc,sting oapabiliti ...
-26·

•
In summatfon, the ea,1em schools ha•c employed basically the Smagorinsky-ian
p~nclples ln ono way or an01hor. Tho llmi!alion of this approach, ahhclgh not yet
apparcn to the establishment. is rapidly being ab•ndonll<i by tho academic Community.
The r,rogmauc capabilities of !ho 8udyko-ians and the methodologies there!n e,e quickly
being ab,orbed by both the East and W",t Coast es!abli,hmcnt,. The Lambion, and their
primarily s!atbrlcal approach arc beginning !o lose favor. but their developmenl of
historical dimatologkal record, has pn.-id~d a virnl sel'lic, within •he climatological
community.
Sen Diego Conrerence
By tho fall of 1913 the OITke of Research and D"elopinent (ORD) had obtained
,uflkiom evidence lo alM lhc Agency analy,1,, tlia! !"ore
casts or"" ongoing global cli-
mate chnnge we"' reamnahlc ~ndwonhy of ancm1oa.ORDalso dc1crmincd that it was
feasible lo ~cgin the devclopmeol of forccasiing techniques and unpact assessment. How-
ever. Agency analysts remained ,kcplical. noting that the mix bf approaches (Wlsconsin.
Scripps, RAND, NCAR) and the scientific personalities pursuio~ them prevented a clear
expNsslon of what the rcc•ognize<I
authorities were•weeing on.
To resolve lhe,c i,.ue,, the prlnclpa ln•cstl1m1ors rcprcscntin~ the various research
approaches convened in San Diego in April 1974 lo df,cuis 1hcse three specific topics:
The stat• or climotological forc,·o,ling: iden!ificatioo of clements of tho mc!h·
odology wherein thcr~ i, some con,cn,u,. current trends in development, and
new approaches.
Prospects for dcvclopin~ 11eor·lerm opplicalions of chmo!Ology lo Agency
inTCl'llSIS.
Recommend,1fons for high- ond low-risk apprnachcs ror long-mo~ d1ma1ologi·
cal mndds dc,elopm:nt,
l'or lwo duy, lhey argur,d, Jiseussed. and defended their "pproache; to ellmaUe
forccaslin~ ,nd !he ;mpoct of dlmatk ehongc. By the second day a consensus wo, reoched
on tho following fundamcn1al is,ue,:
A Qlobal dims Uc change I, laking place.
We will not ,oon retum 1o !he climole pallern, of lhi recent pa11t.

•
For the future, lhere is a high prob"bll!ty of increa"'d Yot!oblllty In a number
of feal"''" of clim01ethat are of Importance to crop growth.
The most promising long-range (l-5 ye•rs) approach to climate rorecas!lng
appears to '1,cthe ,tatls!lc•I synoptic approach. The ,"Onsonsusexpressed cau·
!ion in using these proJcctions without an attempt to Jcvelop some physical
understanding of the underlyi1[8wea!hcr-fordn~ mcch,m<ms.
ln gcncrnl, !he coTifercn,,.,pu,rlclponts "''"'' skeptical of the prnspec·ls of making a
one- Lo live-year forecast ul this lime, staHn~ th,t only sco,on-l'*"""'on forc,·,,ts were
within the state of the art.
The conference purticipanr, unanimously rccom,uonJcd rhal the dear need for u
long-,aoge prediction dictated the cstab!ishm~n! of an Opcrnlion~I Diag110sticCen!~r
chorgedwith dcvelopi~g global forecasting lechnl4uc, and for servicing lhc Govemmcnl',
need, for one-lo-five year forecasts.
National aimole Pion
In the summer of 1973 the WJ,con,in Plan for C'llma!ic Research was presented lo
!he Natlonul &cu,Hy Council. NOAA ancl !he Nalionul Science l'ounda!iOJJ were re-
quc,tcil to review this plan ond to •Ulll!e•thow if should be implemoolcJ. The Vi,consin
Plan •Umulo!cJ activi!y in miny agencies.
ln the Lullof 1973 three lljlendcs in the government became active in the develop·
ment of climatic rc,carch plans: NSF. NOAA, und the N•tional Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Science, e,lahli.hed the Commlllee on ('lhnatlc Varfotion.
,haired by Dr. Lurry Gate,. The c"OmmiUccmembers comrleted their recommenclat(ons
for a Notional ("linrnlic Rc,corelt Plun in June of 1974. This plan i, presently under
"""ssmcnt by the National Acudcmy or Sclcnccs. It• fin"I "pprov•I is cxpcdc<l lalc !hi,
yc,r. Early In 1974, NOAA heson developing" plan which would include" Cenlet for
Climalle ,nd llnvlronmcnM As,cs.,mcnl "' su1111csted
by prelimlnory recommendation,
fro,n the Nat1on,I Ac"demy of Sciences Committee. Thi, plan would allow NOAA to
rcsrond rarldly to the n«ds or government a[!CncicsIha! arc concerned with !he imract
or climat!c foctois on both" nulionol ""d
global scale.
In the .<prlnM
of l'J74. lhe Direclo, or the Pol,r Studio• Dlvis;on <JfNSF dcvcloped a
plan to cs!ab!lih a Ccn1,•r for Climatic Research "' well "' lo provide funding to
•pprorriote """Jemie centers,

Doth of these pion, hove boon lnoorporated into what !, now called Ute National
Climato Plan, NOAA would be r"'ponslblo for developing method, for practical climate
,;- forec.. tlng •• well a,developing techniquOllappllcabfo for the o,se,sment of national and
international food production. NSF would provide ,upport to responsible acodemic
conteu and establish a Center for Climatic Resoarch. This Center would operate tn a
&lmilar manner ,, th~ pre,ent Nation•: Cenio, for .'1,fmospherlcRe,earch (NCAR) at
Bouldor, Colorado. The National Climat!c Plan ls pre,ently under review by NOAA and
the NSF, They expect to seek approval from the Office of Management and Bud8el ln the
fa!!of 1914for PY76 program fonding.
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CONCLUSIONS
Leaders in climatology and economics are rn asreement that a cllmotic change ii
taklng place aud that it has already e,aused ,.,ajor economic problom1 throughout lhe
world. As It becomos more •pparent to the nations around the world that the cumml
trend i, indeed ~ long•term r,:ollty, new •ilgnments will be made among nation, to insure
a secure supply of food rosource,. Assessing the Impact of climatic clrnnge on major
""lions will, in the future, occupy a major porUon of l11c Intelligence Community's
i111Slll8,
Climatology is • ~uddiog sclencc that hasonly recently given promise of fruition.
Classlcal climatology '''" oe<:upicd wllh the orehf,ing of e•ldcnce. Until 1968 very IIttle
WWI nccomrllshc~ in this science Ioward defining casual rcbllonships. DurinG the ls,1 two
years cHma1ologists h•vc m•de subs1antiol progress In the devoloprnen! of methodologies
and techniques in fon:co,tin_gclimatic chaoses. r..eccn1dcwlopmcnh ln climatology have
shown c,tei,,lvc prom:.. toward provldini soasonsl forecasting. In the neor future it moy
bo po,.ible to provide forec"st, in tllo realm of one to nvcyear,;,
The function or re,earch within lhe Agency has been directed at dcflnlng the r<:IO·
lion,hlp of climatology to lhc lnMll~encc problem,. It is h1croo,;ngly ovldcn! that lhc
lntolligence Community mu,1 umlerstand the magnitude of lnternolional threat, which
o,,:cur os a function of climatic change, These meltodologlcs ore nccc""'Y to forewarn us
or !he economic and 1iolltie"I collapse or nations caused by o worldwide failure in food
production. In addition, me1hodologie, ore al!O nece,.,ry to projcd and assess o notion',
propcns/y to iniliatc milltadly large-scale migra!lon, of their people ashas been the case
for the list 4,000 ycurs.
Thouglt the Issues ore Jmportonl, the UniteJ St,ucs ho, a limited capobility in
olim"t,c forecasting. Tho government cspend, o•er $1SOmillion annually on short-range
weather forecasting, buI only a minimum of direct dollars on climatic fo.-.:cs,ting. Only a
fow academic centers in the United States arecng,igcd in training pc"onnel in lhis f,ekl,
which ,uggeSls WI: ha•e a ii,,11tcdchance of ,oMns the lnlclligcncc Communily', problem
unlc!i ~cclsivo"clion is taken.
-31-

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'
.33.

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