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Climate Certainty, Uncertainty & Options

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Climate Certainty, Uncertainty & Options

  1. 1. Johnnycashproject.com Reveal
  2. 2. Mario Molina Communicating on Climate in an Uncertain Communication Climate
  3. 3. IGBP
  4. 4. @keeling_curve
  5. 5. Populationaction.org
  6. 6. 1983 111111111
  7. 7. 1983 111111111
  8. 8. 1985 111111111
  9. 9. 1985 1988
  10. 10. Perhaps earth scientists of the future will name this new post-Holocene era for its causative element -- for us. We are entering an age that might someday be referred to as, say, the Anthrocene. After all, it is a geological age of our own making. The challenge now is to find a way to act that will make geologists of the future look upon this age as a remarkable time, a time in which a species began to take into account the long-term impact of its actions. j.mp/92warmbook
  11. 11. Matthew Fontaine Maury, ~1855: “[T]o the right- minded mariner, and to him who studies the physical relations of earth, sea, and air, the atmosphere is something more than a shoreless ocean, at the bottom of which he creeps along.... It is an inexhaustible magazine, marvellously adapted for many benign and beneficent purposes. “Upon the proper working of this machine depends the well being of every plant and animal that inhabits the earth; therefore the management of it, its movements, and the performance of its offices, cannot be left to chance.” Me, 1992: Now we have arrived at a time when, voluntarily or involuntarily, humans are indeed "managing" the atmosphere. We had better manage it well. j.mp/92warmbook
  12. 12. The Shapers of “News” Tyranny of the ‘Peg’ Lure of the Front-Page Thought Tyrannies of Space/Time Tyranny of Balance Lure of Conflict and debate
  13. 13. Paucity of data leads to overabundance of assertion. Argument, edge and policy relevance lead to media interest Too often content to be “right for a day”
  14. 14. museumvictoria.com.au
  15. 15. There is no “we”…
  16. 16. Girding for a climate fight? Pick your physics Nobelist. • Nobe CulturalCognition.net
  17. 17. High dwellings are the peace and harmony of our descendants…. Remember the calamity of the great tsunamis. Do not build any homes below this point.
  18. 18. mind
  19. 19. Design? Manage? DECIDE??
  20. 20. j.mp/epaheriberto
  21. 21. “Coordinated manipulation of at least six variables is necessary to maintain stability for 200 years or so.”
  22. 22. We lack a cultural narrative that says sustainability is really important. We have a cultural narrative that says murder is wrong. We don’t have a cultural narrative that says managing our planet in a way that allows us to live on it as long as we can is probably the most important thing. “Coordinated manipulation of at least six variables is necessary to maintain stability for 200 years or so.”
  23. 23. Old Goals
  24. 24. Woe is me 350 80% by 2050 <2 Degrees
  25. 25. December, 2015
  26. 26. j.mp/unepco2gap
  27. 27. j.mp/unepco2gap
  28. 28. j.mp/unepco2gap They assume the blue “safe” emissions drop can occur even as populations and resource appetites soar in Africa and South Asia. 750 million > NIGERIA (U.N. 2015 projection)
  29. 29. New Goals
  30. 30. New Goals Traits
  31. 31. hhnaturemuseum.org
  32. 32. Woe is me
  33. 33. Bend
  34. 34. Bend Billy Parish, 2005 Energy Action Coalition
  35. 35. Bend Billy Parish, 2005 Energy Action Coalition Billy Parish, 2014 joinmosaic.com
  36. 36. Paul Kench George Steinmetz Bend
  37. 37. Fill in this blank @theWCS welikia.org Bend
  38. 38. Stretch
  39. 39. Prospective Design – Houses, Ecosystems riverarchitects.com j.mp/seariseconservation Stretch
  40. 40. Stretch
  41. 41. Taylorguitars.com Stretch
  42. 42. Stretch
  43. 43. Stretch
  44. 44. Reach
  45. 45. IPCC to its authors
  46. 46. j.mp/wmorevkin
  47. 47. Known Unknowables
  48. 48. Escape from the “Nerd Loop” Randy Olson @abtagenda
  49. 49. #
  50. 50. #
  51. 51. Noise #planetworks #iamascientistbecause #manthropocene #farmhack #deepuncertainty #birdclass
  52. 52. Signal #planetworks #iamascientistbecause #manthropocene #farmhack #deepuncertainty #birdclass
  53. 53. WARMIST! DENIER! Beyond the shouting match
  54. 54. Climate disputes hide energy and resilience agreement
  55. 55. Support for a cap & trade policy
  56. 56. Support for providing rebates for purchases of solar panels and fuel-efficient vehicles
  57. 57. Support for requiring 45 mpg fuel efficiency across vehicle fleets, even at a $1,000 price premium.
  58. 58. j.mp/yaleclimatemaps
  59. 59. j.mp/yaleclimatemaps
  60. 60. j.mp/yaleclimatemaps
  61. 61. j.mp/yaleclimatemaps
  62. 62. John D. Sutter / CNN “2 Degrees” Find the Denier: Oil-Patch America
  63. 63. Teach
  64. 64. The new classroom j.mp/pacedocs
  65. 65. The new classroom
  66. 66. The new classroom? Nature: j.mp/riskschool
  67. 67. The new classroom
  68. 68. Reveal
  69. 69. Reveal
  70. 70. Reveal Cafee.wvu.edu theICCT.org
  71. 71. Reflect
  72. 72. Designing discourse! @USGSjwp Reflect
  73. 73. Response diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience Thomas Elmqvist, Stockholm University Nov. 2003, Frontiers in Ecology & the Environment The diversity of responses to environmental change among species contributing to the same ecosystem function, which we call response diversity, is critical to resilience. Response diversity is particularly important for ecosystem renewal and reorganization following change…. We should pay special attention to response diversity when planning ecosystem management and restoration, since it may contribute considerably to the resilience of desired ecosystem states against disturbance, mismanagement, and degradation. j.mp/responsediversity
  74. 74. Response diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience Thomas Elmqvist, Stockholm University Nov. 2003, Frontiers in Ecology & the Environment The diversity of responses to environmental change among people contributing to the same social function, which we call response diversity, is critical to resilience. Response diversity is particularly important for ecosystem and social renewal and reorganization following change…. We should pay special attention to response diversity when planning ecological and social management and restoration, since it may contribute considerably to the resilience of desired ecosystem and social states against disturbance, mismanagement, and degradation. j.mp/responsediversity
  75. 75. Data & Values: “You can’t get an ought from an is.” j.mp/dotvatican
  76. 76. The Virtues of “Mundane Science” Avoidance of the mundane sphere has been a continuing characteristic of modern science, without prejudice to particular disciplines…. [A]gricultural scientists valorized the high-tech green revolution agriculture and ignored low-tech, native systems of managing forests and fields; health experts pursued “exotic” diseases (like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome [SARS]) while ignoring ubiquitous problems like infant diarrhea and indoor air pollution…. Science, Society and the Environment : Applying Anthropology and Physics to Sustainability / Michael R. Dove and Daniel M. Kammen
  77. 77. Futureearth.info
  78. 78. Rejoice
  79. 79. Repeat Justin Maxon / Bloomberg Businessweek
  80. 80. Gavin Free / Slow Mo Guys John Brandon Miller
  81. 81. Raymond Pierrehumbert, Oxford

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