Ad blocking in the US will reduce online and mobile display advertising revenue by $12.1 billion in 2020. Today, 11.7% of ad impressions are being blocked in the US, based on Optimal.com analytics.

1. Ad Blocking Survey
and Forecast
© Op%mal.com Corp. 2016
All Rights Reserved

2. Table of Contents
The Op%mal.com Ad Blocking Survey and Forecast
Forecast
US ad blocking (2016-2020)
Summary Findings
What we found and why
Survey Results
Response data and relevant cross-tabs
Recommenda%ons
What to do and what’s next?
About Us
Who we are and how to reach us

3. Summary Findings
What we found and why
Today, 11.7% of ad impressions are being blocked in the
US. Ad blocking in the US will reduce online and mobile
display adver%sing revenue by $12.1 billion in 2020.

4. Summary Findings
Ad blocking will reduce US display adver%sing revenue by $3.9 billion in 2016, up to $12.1 billion in 2020
Op%mal.com’s blocker tracking data shows 11.7% of
online display ad impressions were blocked in 2015
in the United States. Ad blocking will reduce online
and mobile display adver%sing revenue in the US vs.
previous industry forecasts of over $50 billion in
2020, dropping to $38.8 billion (23.8% or $12.1b
lower), and $3.9b lower, a drop of 12.1%, in 2016.
Op%mal.com data shows that today over 90% of ad
blocked impressions are s%ll coming from desktop
(and not mobile) browsing, but the trend toward
mobile blocking will intensify, especially as mobile
ads are seen by consumers as far more intrusive
and annoying: mobile popup ads are considered 3.7
%mes worse than TV ads by those surveyed, with
mobile video ads seen as 2.4 %mes more annoying.
Countries like Germany, France, Sweden and the
Netherlands already have ad blocking rates in
excess of 20%, with countries like Greece, Ukraine
and Poland in the 26-31% range. Mobile will be
heavily impacted by ad blocking, with 48% of users
ci%ng mobile popup ads as the most annoying/
intrusive ads across all media, and 31% ci%ng mobile
video ads, in both cases seen as worse by
consumers than TV ads (13%).
Given the low price for ad blockers (o_en free),
simply increasing consumer awareness among
non-blocking users will be a big driver for
increasing ad blocking adop%on. The ad industry
risks increasing adop%on by focusing on preven%ng
ad blocking instead of fixing the underlying reasons
consumers are seeking out these solu%ons.

5. US Ad Blocking Rate at 11.7%
Based on Op%mal.com proprietary publisher analy%cs (Dec 2015-Feb 2016)
Source: Op%mal.com Corp. both desktop and mobile (2016)

6. Forecast
US Ad Blocking (2016-2020)
Ad blocking in the US will reduce online and mobile display
adver%sing revenue by $12.1 billion in 2020 (a 24%
reduc%on). In 2020, over 102 million users (36.6% of the
US online audience) will be blocking ads at least monthly

7. PosiKve Drivers in the Forecast
These factors are going to increase ad blocking adop5on over the next several years
Source: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016
% of ad blocking users ac5vely using
Ac%ve user rates for these tools are usually
very high, but could change over %me
Non-ad blocker adult awareness rate
Many of these factors directly impact
whether consumers are aware of the
availability of ad blocking tools
Conversion rate to installing ad blockers
Our assump%ons on conversion rates are
generally modest, based both on our
survey research and “usage” factors

8. NegaKve Drivers Include Legal Threats
These are factors that will depress the growth of ad blocking in the United States
% of ad blocking users ac5vely using
Ac%ve user rates for these tools are usually
very high, but could change over %me
Non-ad blocker adult awareness rate
Many of these factors directly impact
whether consumers are aware of the
availability of ad blocking tools
Conversion rate to installing ad blockers
Our assump%ons on conversion rates are
generally modest, based both on our
survey research and “usage” factors
Source: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016

9. US Ad Blocker Usage More Than Triples
US online users who regularly use ad blockers to exceed 102 million by 2020
US online
users (‘000)
% of US
online users
Source: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016

10. $39 Billion Blocked Over Next 5 Years
US display adver%sing falls by $12.1 billion in 2020, about 24% of current market size es%mates
Sources: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016, eMarketer Oct 2015
Revenue
($ million)
% of US mobile
& desktop
display revenue

11. Ad Blocking Kills Display Growth Rate
CAGR for display adver%sing (‘16-’20) drops from 12.2% to 8.3% as revenue lost to ad blocking balloons
Sources: Op%mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016, eMarketer Oct 2015
Model assumes CPMs increase
Due to depressed inventory, we assume
that prices increase by between 5% (2016)
and 15% (2020) which par%ally offsets
decline in inventory. These figures do in
fact assume that increase occurs.
Lower impact on Facebook mobile
Given the enormous mobile app footprint
that Facebook has, and their ability to serve
ads as a first-party, we assume a far smaller
impact on their mobile adver%sing.
*CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate

12. Survey Results
Conducted in April 2016
Op%mal.com and Wells Fargo Securi%es surveyed US
smartphone users about their mobile phones, mobile and
desktop ad blocking behavior and aktudes. Survey was
conducted using SurveyMonkey Audience panel.

13. OpKmal.com + Wells Fargo Survey
We surveyed 1,712 US smartphone users about ad blocking behavior and aktudes
Approximately 30% of respondents selected one of the Android phones specified in
the ques%on (e.g. Samsung Galaxy S5 or Google Nexus). What’s your average
monthly mobile phone bill for voice and data in USD$?
The propor%on of survey respondents whose primary
smartphone is an Apple device, 27.6% iPhone 6/6S.
48%
What’s your average monthly mobile phone bill for voice and data in USD$?
Which brand/model is your primary phone? (some responses aggregated)
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016

14. A Third Have Exceeded Data Allowances
And the weighted average data plan per person is 3.12 Gb/month
Have you ever paid an overage charge for exceeding your monthly data allowance? Approximately how many Gigabytes (Gb) of data per person is your current mobile phone
data plan (e.g. if it’s 4Gb and shared between two people, that would be 2Gb)?
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016

15. 23% of Smartphone Users Block Ads
Survey sample is adult smartphone users -> Op%mal US data indicates overall 11.7% ad block rate
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016, Op%mal.com publisher data Feb 2016
Are you currently blocking some or all ads using a plugin, a special browser, or some
other soJware or blocking device?
Country-weighted data, from OpNmal.com on-site ad blocking measurement, both
mobile and desktop browsers
Note this is blocking on either desktop or mobile, or both

16. Blocking Similar by Age, Male Bias
Women slightly less likely to block ads than men (20% vs. 27%)
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016
Are you currently blocking some or all ads using a plugin, a special browser, or some other soJware or blocking device?

17. Speed, Malware & Irrelevance Top Issues
Privacy concerns and data costs are far smaller concerns for adblocking users today
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=392 who block ads) April 2016
Why did you decide to block ads? (select top three)
Of those who’ve had
phone data overage
47.6%

18. Lack of Awareness Should Scare Pubs
Almost half of non-blockers are not aware they can block ads, only 15% of people “don’t mind ads”
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1320 who don’t block ads) April 2016
Why are you not currently blocking ads? (choose most important reason)

19. Lack of Awareness Should Scare Pubs
Almost half of non-blockers are not aware they can block ads, only 15% of people “don’t mind ads”
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1320 who don’t block ads) April 2016
Why are you not currently blocking ads? (choose most important reason)
Women 53%
Men 36%
Women less aware of
ad blocking than men
Age 18-29 8.8%
Age 60+ 0.3%
Younger users concern
over blocking impact

20. Other Reasons Why Not Blocking Ads
Some answers make a lot of sense. Some others, well… you be the judge!
“because ads pay for the
content and don't want to
be a free loading asshole”
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1,712)
Users who provided “Other” as the reason why
they’re not yet blocking ads: here were some of
the verba%m reasons they gave…7.1%
“phone not rooted”
“Don't get many ads,
thank God”
“not being bothered....yet”
“Company owned device,
they do that.”
“I don't use the browser”
“I have unlimited data. It
doesn't mater.”
“i block most apps from
using cellular data”
“hassle to block ads in
several apps…”
“If I start gekng more and
it's intrusive, I'll block
them.”
“I'm too lazy to figure out
how to do it”
“I don’t care enough one
way or the other”
“Ads from what? The only
ads I ever experience are
through apps that have ad
content (Pandora for
example).”
“I don't use the internet
on my phone.”
“Ad blockers present their
own problems on my
system”
“I use my phone to make
calls and text”
“Do not trust them”
“Ad blockers harm your
phone”
“I work in adver%sing and
know that ads allow me to
access content for free.”
“Blocking ads also affects
content I want”
“some sites require it
disabled”
“I am on the no call list”
“I use adblock on my
laptop but ads on my
phone don't bother me
much.”
“Windows Phone doesn't
allow.”
“I manually unsubscribe” “What ads?”

21. Mobile Ads More Annoying Than TV Ads
Mobile popup ads considered 3.7 %mes worse than TV ads, mobile video 2.4 %mes worse
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
Which adverNsing do you find to be the most annoying/intrusive? (pick up to three)

22. Users 60+ Less Tolerant of TV, Desktop
Users between 18-29 years of age much more annoyed by mobile video/popup ads
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=407 age 18-29, n=368 age 60+) April 2016
Which adverNsing do you find to be the most annoying/intrusive? (pick up to three)
18-29 8.8%
60+ 22.3%
Television ads
18-29 52.1%
60+ 39.1%
Mobile popup ads
18-29 39.6%
60+ 21.5%
Mobile video ads
Age 18-29
Age 60+
Most annoying/intrusive:

23. Low Trust in Google, Facebook, Carriers
However, 43% of people said they don’t trust any en%ty to protect their personal informa%on
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
Which enNNes would you trust to protect your personal informaNon (check all that apply)
Block ads 36.0%
Don’t block ads 45.2%
Your Bank
Block ads 26.5%
Don’t block ads 33.6%
Your Employer
Block ads 48.2%
Don’t block ads 40.8%
Don’t Trust Any En%ty

24. Sharing is Caring. (SomeKmes)
Facebook and Google 3x more likely trusted by 18-29 years old vs. 60+ age group
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
Which enNNes would you trust to protect your personal informaNon (check all that apply)

25. Young Adults Far More TrusKng
32% of 18-29 year-olds would trust 4 or more of the en%%es we listed with their personal informa%on
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
Count of -> Which enNNes would you trust to protect your personal informaNon (check all that apply)

26. PotenKal for Carrier-Led Blocking?
A $9.99 price point might be too high, but younger users more willing to consider
Source: Wells Fargo Securi%es, Op%mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
If your mobile carrier offered an add-on service to block all ads and any code that might anonymously share your idenNty or locaNon on
your phone for $9.99/month, how likely would you be to sign up? [pick one]
Top 2 Box (very or
somewhat likely)

27. RecommendaKons
Test alterna%ve mone%za%on, fix broken ad system
There is no easy or quick fix for publishers and adver%sers.
Consumer trust has been fundamentally harmed and the
ease of op%ng out of ads will only increase. Fix the broken
ad ecosystem and make trade-offs clearer for users.

28. What consumers deserve from online adver%sing, publishers and adver%sers
Canonical adver5ser iden5ty. Bad actors change
names and pop-up again. Collaborate industry-wide
1
Our SuggesKons to Fix AdverKsing
Copyright Op%mal.com Corp. 2016
2 No malware, popups or adware. Create a three-
strikes policy for providers who let anything through
3 Universal ad-server approval. Too many firms allow
any code on their site. Limit and enforce standards
4 Restrict retargeted ads. Users get creeped out. No
more than 3 pages of these ads, per ac%on/product
5 Three ads per page. Data shows that fewer is
beter. Enforce limits on ads per page/minute.
6 Full history of targe5ng data. See what data is
being used to target any ad. Let me delete/change
7 Adver5ser blacklists for users. Let me block specific
adver%sers from showing ads to me, easily.
8 Label ads properly. “From Around the Web”?
Enforce labeling for sponsorship/ads consistently
9 Devote 10% of ad space to feedback. Have the ad
gather my feedback, make visible to sites and users
10 Allow paid ad blocking. Anyone should be able to
pay a fair amount & not be hassled for blocking ads

29. Mobile Consumers Could Save Billions
The average iPhone user could save over $7/month in excess data charges by blocking ads
US iPhone users
alone could save up
to $8.3 billion per
year on excess data
charges due to web
browsing
In our 5-site test,
blocker-users saw a
total of 786 URL calls
instead of 1721, there
are massive privacy
implicaKons
Copyright Op%mal.com Corp. 2016
Interac%ve model here: htp://op%mal.com/savings/

30. About Us
Who is Op%mal.com?
Op%mal.com is headquartered in Boulder, Colorado and
San Francisco, California. We’re working to create
alterna%ve ways for publishers to mone%ze great content.

31. OpKmal Powers New MoneKzaKon Models
Op%mal’s direct consumer subscrip%ons replace publisher ad revenue for users who block ads
Sites
Browsers
Users
User feedback
Content ra%ng
Site ra%ngs
Pay to block
$5-$10/month Improving ads
Shared whitelists
Fraudulent sites
Site sugges%ons
Publisher tools
Ad block % tools
Site +revenue by
gekng user votes
... while adding social
features so the best
websites earn more
Copyright Op%mal.com Corp. 2016

32. OpKmal.com Pays Publishers for Ad Blocking
70% of every subscrip%on goes back to publishers, and users can also “%p” publishers
Copyright Op%mal.com Corp. 2016
Upvote sites you
like to increase their
revenue, see if
others agree
Report sites who
are blocking your
blocker or for other
issues
Favorite up to 5
sites for an
immediate boost Monthly revenue
each site gets from
you is transparent
Tip sites an extra
$0.01 to $1.00 if
they’re doing a
great job!

33. Our Contact Info
How to get in touch
Op%mal.com is based in Boulder,
Colorado and San Francisco, California.
P.O. Box M
Boulder CO 80306
Address
Rob Leathern, Founder and CEO
Email: rob@op%mal.com
Contact Info
Phone: +1 (720) 619-2237
Telephone
We’d like to acknowledge the
help of Peter Stabler and his
team at Wells Fargo Securi%es,
thank you for this opportunity
to collaborate on an important
issue!