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Post-9/11 
Modern Conflict 
Robert David STEELE Vivas
Conflict: Opposing Forces 
Person vs Self 
Person vs Person 
Person vs Society 
Person vs Nature 
Mental-Cultural 
Mental-Cultural 
Religion vs Self 
Religion vs Person 
Religion vs Society 
Religion vs Nature 
Tribe vs Self 
Tribe vs Person 
Tribe vs Society 
Tribe vs Nature 
Mental-Cultural 
Mental-Cultural 
State vs Self 
State vs Person 
State vs Society 
State vs Nature
Context Matters
Reality (Nature) Bats Last 
• Bacteria have extraordinary strategies for 
rapid-fire external information collection and 
exchange, quick-paced inventiveness, and 
global data sharing. Species higher up on the 
evolutionary scale do not always retain 
these capabilities--they internalize 
capabilities while losing organic connectivity 
to others. 
• Non-conformists--diversity generators--are 
absolutely vital to the survival of any species 
because they are "option generators"--but 
too often those in power shut out and even 
ruin the very non-conformists needed to 
adapt to external challenges it does not 
understand. 
• Think for yourselves. We are losing the inter-species 
contest because we are self-destructing 
across multiple fronts.
Fundamental Questions 
• What’s the threat? 
• What’s the terrain? 
• Who are the players? 
• What’s the history? 
• Where’s the gold? 
• What are the rules? 
• What can we afford? 
• Who benefits? 
• How does this end? 
Learning Objective: 
Do you ask these questions 
before picking a fight? 
Does your leadership ask these 
questions before going to war? 
Are these questions 
ANSWERED before going to 
war?
7 Generations of Military Intelligence 
1st Generation Easy: Where is the opposing army? 
2nd Generation Easy: Where are the trenches? 
3rd Generation Moderate: How many with what where? 
4th Generation Hard: Watch every non-state actor. 
5th Generation Hard: Watch everything on the fly. 
6th Generation Hard: Make sense of billions of bits. 
7th Generation Very Hard: 24/7, 33+ languages and get your 
own house in order. As soon as possible, 183 
languages going back 200 years, then 400. Plot 
all this on a universally-accessible geospatial 
visualization and show the true costs of every 
product, process, service, and behavior.
Four Modern Threats to the State
Post-9/11 Conflict 
23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC 
LIC: Low-Intensity Conflict VPC: Violent Political Conflict 
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
Post-9/11 Global Threats 
Known but Not Acknowledged by USG as Threats to USA 
Complex Emergencies 
32 Countries 
Refugees/Displaced 
66 Countries 
Food Security 
33 Countries 
Modern Plagues* 
59 Countries & Rising 
Child Soldiers 
41 Countries 
Water Scarcity & 
Contaminated Water** 
Ethnic Conflict 18 
Genocides Today** 
Resource Wars, Energy 
Waste & Pollution** 
Corruption Common 
80 Countries 
Censorship Very High 
62 Countries 
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), 
Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
US Home Front Vulnerabilities 
If Washington Refuses to 
Listen, What Then? 
10 
Public 
Education & 
Health 
CYBER/DATA 
Corruption 
Singleton Individuals 
ECONOMIC BLAHS 
Shock & Disrupt 
No Fly No Spend No Hire 
MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELS 
Off-base power, down-links, antennas 
ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE 
Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation 
PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE 
Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers 
War College 
Papers 
Nailed 
These in 
1990-1994 
I wrote the 
warning 
letter to 
White 
House in 
1994.
What Changed About the Threat?
How Do You Address the Threat? 
I am constantly being asked for 
a bottom-line defense number. 
I don’t know of any logical way 
to arrive at such a figure 
without analyzing the threat; 
without determining what 
changes in our strategy should 
be made in light of the changes 
in the threat; and then 
determining what force 
structure and weapons 
program we need to carry out 
this revised strategy. 
Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) 
Chairman 
Senate Armed Services Committee 
3 Jan 1987 to 3 Jan 1995
What Is the Total Threat Picture? 
Threats to Humanity (Priority Order) 
01 Poverty 
02 Infectious Disease 
03 Environmental Degradation 
04 Inter-State Conflict 
05 Civil War 
06 Genocide 
07 Other Atrocities 
08 Proliferation 
09 Terrorism 
10 Transnational Crime 
Per LtGen Dr. Brent Scowcroft, USAF (Ret) & other members of 
the UN High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, & Change, 2004.
Taxpayer Dollars Focused 
on Just 10% of the Threat 
10% 
50% 
25% 
15% 
State vs State 
State vs Nation 
Inter-Ethnic Tribal 
Poverty, Infectious Disease, 
Environmental Degradation, 
Other Non-State Threats
Persistent Ethnic Fault Lines 
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton 
18 Genocides On-Going
Geo-Political Anomalies 
Mostly Imposed Colonial Boundaries
Cost of War versus Peace 
Assume Just 3 Trillion for AF/IQ – Opportunity Cost!
7 Conflicts Loved by Eugenicists 
Not Counting Death by Doctor, Drugs, Alcohol, Pollution, or Obesity 
1) Democratic Republic of Congo: First 
& Second Congo Wars, aftermath 
(1996 – present) 
2) First and Second Liberian Civil Wars 
(1989-2003) 
3) Eritrean – Ethiopian War (1998- 
2000) 
4) Darfur conflict (2003 – present) 
5) Iraq: US invasion, insurgency, civil 
war (2003 – present) 
6) Mexican Drug War (2006 – present) 
7) Syrian conflict (2011 – present) 
5,000,000+ DEAD 
300,000 DEAD 
150,000 – 300,000 DEAD 
300,000+ DEAD 
100,000 – 600,000 DEAD 
60,000+ DEAD 
150,000+ DEAD
Infectious Disease True Cost 
Add Cost of Blocking Natural Cures…
Hyper-Arid 
Arid 
Semi-Arid 
Sub-Humid 
Water 
Pollution 
Water As Source of Conflict 
1 
2 
Source: The State of the World 
Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 
3 
4 
5 
6
Ecological Conflicts Today
Weather & Waste 
Paving Over the Poor 
Paving Over Wetlands & Flood 
Plains is a Deliberate Scam: 
1. Screw over the poor and those 
of color 
2. Amortize high risks taken by 
the rich across the entire 
taxpayer base – we conceal and 
deceive to keep investment 
coming in 
3. Further land speculation, with 
insurance company and 
government complicity 
4. Conceal, lie, deceive as to the 
actual premediated decisions 
that occasioned the disaster 
turning into a catastrophe.
Wall Street Screwed Us Good… 
And the Two-Party Tyranny Protects Them… 
QUOTE (32): What has taken place over 
the last generation is a highly 
complicated merger of crime and policy, 
of stealing and government. Far from 
taking care of the rest of us, the financial 
leaders of America and their political 
servants have seemingly reached the 
cynical conclusion that our society is not 
work saving and have taken on a new 
mission that involved not creating wealth 
for us all, but simply absconding with 
whatever wealth remains in our 
hollowed out economy. They don’t feed 
us, we feed them.
All Elites Are Taking Advantage 
1. It’s not just the federal government that must be 
watched and kept honest – all across America 
every small town elite and every city government 
cuts deals with corporations that line individual 
local elite pockets while screwing the poor, blue 
collar, and middle class out of education and 
infrastructure. 
2. Education among the lower middle class and 
impoverished – white, black, other – is 
considered a luxury. Lacking education, they get 
screwed over and over by snake oil salesmen be 
they religious, political, or financial. 
3. Over half the poor in USA are white and this 
number has almost doubled in past eight years. 
Trailers, trucks, insurance, health for the poor are 
all designed to cheat them in a way no educated 
person would tolerate. 
4. Television really has made us stupid.
Death Penalty or Guantanamo? 
Vietnam is sentencing corrupt bankers to death, by firing squad 
In the USA, 7,000+ Occupy protesters arrested – fewer than 10 bankers
Back to Basics 
We the People of the United States, in Order 
to form a more perfect Union, establish 
Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide 
for the common defence, promote the 
general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of 
Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do 
ordain and establish this Constitution for the 
United States of America. 
1. Who are WE? Who “counts?” 
2. Do Individuals yield to the We? 
3. How do We come together? 
4. What role free speech? 
5. What role privacy? 
6. What role justice for all? 
7. When do We declare “enough?” 
Really Big Questions: 
1. Who gave Congress right to borrow a 
trillion a year in our name? 
2. Who allowed Congress to stop following 
Article 1 of the Constitution? 
3. Who allowed Congress to suspend the Bill 
of Rights and permit secret prosecutions?
You Are the Change 
Your ability to think is our salvation 
Once aroused, the public cannot be 
suppressed by any government, by any 
corporation, by any degree of violence. 
Only the public can discern the great truths. 
Governments are intermediaries able to 
understand small and medium truths. 
The great truth that our public must 
discern, embrace, and promulgate is that 
science and concentrated wealth have 
outpaced the humanities and our ability to 
self-govern. 
The change starts here and now with each 
of you. Your ability to think for yourselves 
going into the future is our salvation.
Here Is One Analytic Model 
Holistic Matters – True Cost Matters
Here is One Outreach Model 
Knowing who knows is half the answer
Here is One Technical Model 
Affordable, Inter-Operable, Scalable
Here is One Moral Model 
If you remember just one world, let it be INTEGRITY
Learn More If You Wish… 
I stress the value of book reviews by others 
Phi Beta Iota Public Intelligence Blog 
http://www.phibetaiota.net 
See especially: Books (Page) 
Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Positive Future-Oriented) 
Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Negative Status-Quo) 
Worth a Look: Recent Books on 10 High Level Threats 
Worth a Look: Recent Books on 12 Core Policies 
Worth a Look: Book Reviews on Democracy Lost & Found 
Worth a Look: Book Reviews on Corruption 2.0 
Worth a Look: Recent Books on True Cost Economics 
Worth a Look: Recent Books on All the Opens 
Worth a Look: Book Reviews on Religion & the Politics of Religion 
Robert Steele: Online Review Books on Education, Intelligence, Research 
The truth at any cost 
lowers all other costs.

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2014 steele @-tarleton-modern-conflict-1.6

  • 1. Post-9/11 Modern Conflict Robert David STEELE Vivas
  • 2. Conflict: Opposing Forces Person vs Self Person vs Person Person vs Society Person vs Nature Mental-Cultural Mental-Cultural Religion vs Self Religion vs Person Religion vs Society Religion vs Nature Tribe vs Self Tribe vs Person Tribe vs Society Tribe vs Nature Mental-Cultural Mental-Cultural State vs Self State vs Person State vs Society State vs Nature
  • 4. Reality (Nature) Bats Last • Bacteria have extraordinary strategies for rapid-fire external information collection and exchange, quick-paced inventiveness, and global data sharing. Species higher up on the evolutionary scale do not always retain these capabilities--they internalize capabilities while losing organic connectivity to others. • Non-conformists--diversity generators--are absolutely vital to the survival of any species because they are "option generators"--but too often those in power shut out and even ruin the very non-conformists needed to adapt to external challenges it does not understand. • Think for yourselves. We are losing the inter-species contest because we are self-destructing across multiple fronts.
  • 5. Fundamental Questions • What’s the threat? • What’s the terrain? • Who are the players? • What’s the history? • Where’s the gold? • What are the rules? • What can we afford? • Who benefits? • How does this end? Learning Objective: Do you ask these questions before picking a fight? Does your leadership ask these questions before going to war? Are these questions ANSWERED before going to war?
  • 6. 7 Generations of Military Intelligence 1st Generation Easy: Where is the opposing army? 2nd Generation Easy: Where are the trenches? 3rd Generation Moderate: How many with what where? 4th Generation Hard: Watch every non-state actor. 5th Generation Hard: Watch everything on the fly. 6th Generation Hard: Make sense of billions of bits. 7th Generation Very Hard: 24/7, 33+ languages and get your own house in order. As soon as possible, 183 languages going back 200 years, then 400. Plot all this on a universally-accessible geospatial visualization and show the true costs of every product, process, service, and behavior.
  • 7. Four Modern Threats to the State
  • 8. Post-9/11 Conflict 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC LIC: Low-Intensity Conflict VPC: Violent Political Conflict Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
  • 9. Post-9/11 Global Threats Known but Not Acknowledged by USG as Threats to USA Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Child Soldiers 41 Countries Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
  • 10. US Home Front Vulnerabilities If Washington Refuses to Listen, What Then? 10 Public Education & Health CYBER/DATA Corruption Singleton Individuals ECONOMIC BLAHS Shock & Disrupt No Fly No Spend No Hire MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers War College Papers Nailed These in 1990-1994 I wrote the warning letter to White House in 1994.
  • 11. What Changed About the Threat?
  • 12. How Do You Address the Threat? I am constantly being asked for a bottom-line defense number. I don’t know of any logical way to arrive at such a figure without analyzing the threat; without determining what changes in our strategy should be made in light of the changes in the threat; and then determining what force structure and weapons program we need to carry out this revised strategy. Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) Chairman Senate Armed Services Committee 3 Jan 1987 to 3 Jan 1995
  • 13. What Is the Total Threat Picture? Threats to Humanity (Priority Order) 01 Poverty 02 Infectious Disease 03 Environmental Degradation 04 Inter-State Conflict 05 Civil War 06 Genocide 07 Other Atrocities 08 Proliferation 09 Terrorism 10 Transnational Crime Per LtGen Dr. Brent Scowcroft, USAF (Ret) & other members of the UN High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, & Change, 2004.
  • 14. Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat 10% 50% 25% 15% State vs State State vs Nation Inter-Ethnic Tribal Poverty, Infectious Disease, Environmental Degradation, Other Non-State Threats
  • 15. Persistent Ethnic Fault Lines Source: Dr. Greg Stanton 18 Genocides On-Going
  • 16. Geo-Political Anomalies Mostly Imposed Colonial Boundaries
  • 17. Cost of War versus Peace Assume Just 3 Trillion for AF/IQ – Opportunity Cost!
  • 18. 7 Conflicts Loved by Eugenicists Not Counting Death by Doctor, Drugs, Alcohol, Pollution, or Obesity 1) Democratic Republic of Congo: First & Second Congo Wars, aftermath (1996 – present) 2) First and Second Liberian Civil Wars (1989-2003) 3) Eritrean – Ethiopian War (1998- 2000) 4) Darfur conflict (2003 – present) 5) Iraq: US invasion, insurgency, civil war (2003 – present) 6) Mexican Drug War (2006 – present) 7) Syrian conflict (2011 – present) 5,000,000+ DEAD 300,000 DEAD 150,000 – 300,000 DEAD 300,000+ DEAD 100,000 – 600,000 DEAD 60,000+ DEAD 150,000+ DEAD
  • 19. Infectious Disease True Cost Add Cost of Blocking Natural Cures…
  • 20. Hyper-Arid Arid Semi-Arid Sub-Humid Water Pollution Water As Source of Conflict 1 2 Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 3 4 5 6
  • 22. Weather & Waste Paving Over the Poor Paving Over Wetlands & Flood Plains is a Deliberate Scam: 1. Screw over the poor and those of color 2. Amortize high risks taken by the rich across the entire taxpayer base – we conceal and deceive to keep investment coming in 3. Further land speculation, with insurance company and government complicity 4. Conceal, lie, deceive as to the actual premediated decisions that occasioned the disaster turning into a catastrophe.
  • 23. Wall Street Screwed Us Good… And the Two-Party Tyranny Protects Them… QUOTE (32): What has taken place over the last generation is a highly complicated merger of crime and policy, of stealing and government. Far from taking care of the rest of us, the financial leaders of America and their political servants have seemingly reached the cynical conclusion that our society is not work saving and have taken on a new mission that involved not creating wealth for us all, but simply absconding with whatever wealth remains in our hollowed out economy. They don’t feed us, we feed them.
  • 24. All Elites Are Taking Advantage 1. It’s not just the federal government that must be watched and kept honest – all across America every small town elite and every city government cuts deals with corporations that line individual local elite pockets while screwing the poor, blue collar, and middle class out of education and infrastructure. 2. Education among the lower middle class and impoverished – white, black, other – is considered a luxury. Lacking education, they get screwed over and over by snake oil salesmen be they religious, political, or financial. 3. Over half the poor in USA are white and this number has almost doubled in past eight years. Trailers, trucks, insurance, health for the poor are all designed to cheat them in a way no educated person would tolerate. 4. Television really has made us stupid.
  • 25. Death Penalty or Guantanamo? Vietnam is sentencing corrupt bankers to death, by firing squad In the USA, 7,000+ Occupy protesters arrested – fewer than 10 bankers
  • 26. Back to Basics We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America. 1. Who are WE? Who “counts?” 2. Do Individuals yield to the We? 3. How do We come together? 4. What role free speech? 5. What role privacy? 6. What role justice for all? 7. When do We declare “enough?” Really Big Questions: 1. Who gave Congress right to borrow a trillion a year in our name? 2. Who allowed Congress to stop following Article 1 of the Constitution? 3. Who allowed Congress to suspend the Bill of Rights and permit secret prosecutions?
  • 27. You Are the Change Your ability to think is our salvation Once aroused, the public cannot be suppressed by any government, by any corporation, by any degree of violence. Only the public can discern the great truths. Governments are intermediaries able to understand small and medium truths. The great truth that our public must discern, embrace, and promulgate is that science and concentrated wealth have outpaced the humanities and our ability to self-govern. The change starts here and now with each of you. Your ability to think for yourselves going into the future is our salvation.
  • 28. Here Is One Analytic Model Holistic Matters – True Cost Matters
  • 29. Here is One Outreach Model Knowing who knows is half the answer
  • 30. Here is One Technical Model Affordable, Inter-Operable, Scalable
  • 31. Here is One Moral Model If you remember just one world, let it be INTEGRITY
  • 32. Learn More If You Wish… I stress the value of book reviews by others Phi Beta Iota Public Intelligence Blog http://www.phibetaiota.net See especially: Books (Page) Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Positive Future-Oriented) Worth a Look: Book Review Lists (Negative Status-Quo) Worth a Look: Recent Books on 10 High Level Threats Worth a Look: Recent Books on 12 Core Policies Worth a Look: Book Reviews on Democracy Lost & Found Worth a Look: Book Reviews on Corruption 2.0 Worth a Look: Recent Books on True Cost Economics Worth a Look: Recent Books on All the Opens Worth a Look: Book Reviews on Religion & the Politics of Religion Robert Steele: Online Review Books on Education, Intelligence, Research The truth at any cost lowers all other costs.