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Climate change has lowered spring flood risks in Ontario rural watersheds due to higher temperatures, lower snowpack and lower spring runoff volumes. There have been no changes in precipitation affecting runoff volumes, and observed increases in summer runoff are due to urbanization, not climate change effects. Dr. Dickinson and Dr Rudra rightly describe the need for 'disentangling', given the prevalent approach of ignoring hydrologic changes in watersheds and incorrectly linking flood events on climate change and extreme rainfall and precipitation changes that have not been observed in local and regional data.
These findings on annual and seasonal patterns complement work by Environment and Climate Change Canada on short duration rainfall that shows no detectable trend in rainfall intensities in the Engineering Climate Datasets contrary to insurance industry statements: