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Exploring business models for new technology
Profitability, trust and risk assessment of e‐business networks
www.thevalueengineers.nl
© TVE February 2018 1
An e3value model shows how businesses and 
consumers perform commercial transactions with 
each other
• Customers buy product and transport from shop.
• To provide the transport service, shop buys it from logistics provider
• Only commercial transactions. No processes.
© TVE February 2018 2
Outline
• Real‐world example
• Technology exploration
• Fraud exploration
• Method
© TVE February 2018 3
Port of Valencia
© TVE February 2018 4
Introducing a sensor‐based early‐warning 
system
© TVE February 2018 5
• New technology requires a 
new business model
• Even if there was already a 
business model
© TVE February 2018 6
Business model
TechnologyPhysical 
activities
Digital 
transformation
Technology 
exploration
Example
• What technology choices are 
possible?
© TVE February 2018 7
Option 1
• Physical activity: The customer goes to a brick‐and‐
mortar shop, browse the products on display there, 
and select a product. 
• Technology: bricks and mortar, shelves, physical 
layout
• Business model: may have to be extended by a 
provider of window dressing services for the shop.
Option 2
• Physical activity: The customer can browse a catalog 
printed on paper. 
• Technology: paper catalog, printer, mail distribution
• Business model: May need extension with providers 
of layout,  printing services, logistics provider
Option 3
• Physical activity: The customers can browse a catalog 
online, and then select a product. 
• Technology: web shop, access device for user.
• Business model: Need web shop hosting, a web shop 
designer, software maintenance, and a helpdesk for 
customers; some of this by external providers.
© TVE February 2018 8
Technology‐imposed additions to the 
business model
© TVE February 2018 9
Technology options for the shop:
1. Accept cash in paper money; this requires 
a cash register in a brick‐and‐mortar shop.
2. Accept debit cards; this requires some 
equipment, as well as a payment service 
from a payment provider such as a bank.
3. Accept credit cards; this requires some 
equipment, as well as a payment service 
from a payment provider such as a bank.
4. Accept a cryptocurrency; this requires an 
interface with e‐wallets and a connection 
to the internet.
• Additions to the business model: options 2 and 3 require payment 
providers
Business models abstract from technology 
and activities
But:
• Choice of technology impacts business model
• Choice of business model impacts choice of technology
© TVE February 2018 10
© TVE February 2018 11
Business model
TechnologyPhysical 
activities Think about physical
possession & movement
Think about ownership and right to use,
and about sale
Technology 
exploration
Outline
• Real‐world example
• Technology exploration
• Fraud exploration
• Method
© TVE February 2018 12
Risk
• Stakeholders have goals
• Risk: Stakeholders may have conflicting goals
• Rational stakeholders perform activities to achieve those goals
• The world is nondeterministic
• Risk: An activity may not contribute to / violate a goal
© TVE February 2018 13
Trust
• Stakeholders have goals
• Trust: The belief that stakeholders may have the same goal
• Rational stakeholders perform activities to achieve those goals
• The world is nondeterministic
• Trust: An activity contributes to / does not violate a goal
• Basis of trust: attitude, relevant evidence, irrelevant evidence, …
• Trust is the lubrication of society
© TVE February 2018 14
© TVE February 2018 15
Business model
TechnologyPhysical 
activities
Technology 
exploration
Business model design requires 
trust assumptions:
• Identity of actors
• Occurrence of transactions
Now consider the following 
risks:
• Collusion of actors
• Non‐occurrence of payments
• Occurrence of secret 
transactions
Think about physical
possession & movement
Think about ownership and right to use,
and about sale
Example: Flat rate fraud
© TVE February 2018 16
Fraud risk 
assessment 
© TVE February 2018 17
Sensitivity 
analysis
© TVE February 2018 18
Risk mitigations
Change the business model
• Include a trusted third party
• Include an insurance
• Pre‐contract screening
• Proper contracting
• Monitoring
• Execution confirmation
• …
Change the process model
• Include verification actions
• Include identification actions
• …
© TVE February 2018 19
New land line subscription
© TVE February 2018 20
Ideal process
© TVE February 2018 21
Fraudulent process
© TVE February 2018 22
This process
also has a
business
model
Our tool
cannot
generate that
model
automatically
© TVE February 2018 23
Business model
TechnologyPhysical 
activities
Processes and technology are about
physical possession & movement
Business model is about
ownership and right to use &
about sale
Technology 
exploration
Process design requires
trust assumptions:
• Ordering of payment &
delivery actions
• Inclusion of verification
actions
• Creation of undesirable
physical possibilities
Business model design
requires trust
assumptions:
• Identity of actors
• Occurrence of
transactions
© TVE February 2018 24
Technology
Physical 
activities
Value 
objects
ActorActor
Customer 
transaction
s
Quantification
E3value allows us
to provide more
detail on BMC
elements.
E3value:
• Focusses on
network of
actors
• Allows net
cash flow
computations
Outline
• Real‐world example
• Technology exploration
• Fraud exploration
• Method
© TVE February 2018 25
Method
© TVE February 2018 26
Develop 
business idea
Quantify the 
value network
Design a value 
network
Assess trust, mitigate risk
Design 
coordination 
process
Design 
enterprise 
architecture
Identify physical activities
Choose technology
Time / detail
Commercial 
aspect
Activity 
aspect
Technical 
aspect
Value network 
design (e3value)
Process 
design 
Technology 
choice
Risk
management
Business risks and 
risk mitigations
Technology 
expenses &
investments
Cost & benefits
of risks and mitigations
Process
expenses & 
investments
Process risks &
Risk mitigations
Technology risks & 
risk mitigations
Technology 
choices
Process 
structure
Process 
structure
Technology 
choices
Four value engineering activities
© TVE February 2018 27
Process 
structure
Technology 
choices
Conclusions
• Value modeling drives the introduction of new technology
• Business models focus on ownership
• Business models need to be engineered jointly with technology 
choices
• Value modeling drives the design of processes
• Process models focusses on physical activities & possession
• Value modeling drives risk management
• Trade‐off between risk and expected revenue
© TVE February 2018 28
Questions?
Contact thevalueengineers.nl
© TVE February 2018 29

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