The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
3. Participating this conference after lecture@JILIN
Single cropping maize.
University is my pleasure.
University is my pleasure
60 000 元
I am appreciated for/year (Sales)
I am appreciated for/year (Sales)
60,000 元
Dr. Wu Wenbin and Dr Dawen Yang
D W W bi dD D Y
10,000元/buying seeds and
fertilizer
f tili
Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing
50,000元 /Net Income
9. Topics
1.DATASETS USED
2.Relationships among temperature,
2 Relationships among temperature
precipitation, and fertilizer for major crop
yield such as Maize, Rice, Soybean and Wheat
3.Future prospect for major crop yield
3 Future prospect for major crop yield
4.CAIFA concept (Climate, Agriculture, Impacts,
p ( , g , p ,
Fertilizer, Adaptation)
11. Top5 Major crop producing country
Year 2009 M aize Production (t
P d ti (tonnes)
) Soybeans
USA 333,010,910 USA 91,417,300
China 163,118,097 Brazil 56,960,732
Brazil 51,232,447 Argentina 30,993,379
M exico 20,202,600 China 14,500,141
Indonesia 17,629,740 India 10,217,000
Rice, paddy Wheat
China 197,257,175
197 257 175 China 114,950,296
114 950 296
India 131,274,000 India 80,680,000
Indonesia 64,398,890 Russian Federation 61,739,750
Bangladesh 45,075,000 USA 60,314,290
Viet Nam 38,895,500 France 38,324,700
12. Monthly
Crop Land
p Vegetation
g
Temperature
T t
Paddy Field Mosaic
Precipitation
Monthly Temperature & Precipitation Cropping
pp g
On Cropland and Paddy Field Calendar
Country Based Monthly Temperature & Precipitation Country
Country
On Cropland and Paddy Field Boarder
Country Based
Country Based
Generated Database By Country
Yield & Fertilizer
13. Datasets provide by “CRU TS3.0”
1961 January to 2009 December, Monthly Data
Monthly 720 × 360 Resolution
Temperature
T t
Precipitation
label Variable units
cld cloud cover percentage
dtr diurnal temperature range degrees Celsius
frs frost day frequency days
pre Precipitation millimeters
tmp daily mean temperature degrees Celsius
tmn
t monthly
thl average daily
d il degrees C l i
d Celsius
minimum temperature
tmx monthly average daily degrees Celsius
maximum temperature
vap vapour pressure hecta-Pascals
wet wet day frequency Days
CRU TS3.0&3.1, 2010, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia,
In http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/
16. Monthly
Crop Land
p Vegetation
g
Temperature
T t
Paddy Field Mosaic
Precipitation
Monthly Temperature & Precipitation Cropping
pp g
On Cropland and Paddy Field Calendar
Country Based Monthly Temperature & Precipitation Country
Country
On Cropland and Paddy Field Boarder
Country Based
Country Based
Generated Database By Country
Yield & Fertilizer
17. Country Based Monthly Temperature & Precipitation
On Cropland and Paddy Field FAOSTAT,2010,In
http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/
default.aspx#ancor
Country Based
Country Based
Generated Database By Country
Yield & Fertilizer
18. Country Based Monthly Temperature & Precipitation
On Cropland and Paddy Field FAOSTAT,2010,In
http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/
default.aspx#ancor
Country Based
Country Based
Generated Database By Country
Yield & Fertilizer
19. Monthly
Crop Land
p Vegetation
g
Temperature
T t
Paddy Field Mosaic
Precipitation
Cropping
pp g
Calendar
Country
Country
Boarder
Cropping Calendar, 2010, University of
Wisconsin, In
http://www.sage.wisc.edu/download/sacks/
http://www sage wisc edu/download/sacks/
crop_calendar.html
21. Cropping Calendar in India
Plant_Avg M onth Harvest_Avg M onth
M aize 172 6 324 11
Rice 179 6 304 10
Soybean 182 6 308 10
Wheat
Wh 172 6 254 8
22. Y F
Fertilizer
Tsum Psum
Generated Database By Country
23. Topics
1.DATASETS USED
2.Relationships among temperature,
2 Relationships among temperature
precipitation, and fertilizer for major crop
yield such as Maize, Rice, Soybean and Wheat
3.Future prospect for major crop yield
3 Future prospect for major crop yield
4.CAIFA concept (Climate, Agriculture, Impacts,
p ( , g , p ,
Fertilizer, Adaptation)
24. Y F
Fertilizer
Tsum Psum
Generated Database By Country
25. Yield in each country is explained by......
CASEA
(
(Temperature, Precipitation)
p p )
CASEB
(Temperature, Precipitation ,
(T t P i it ti
fertilizer)
f tili )
32. Global Soybean Yield : Case A
Temp(+) & Yield (‐)
Ecuador Dominican Republic Haiti
Dominican Republic
Morocco Iraq Russia Cameroon
Chad Croatia Serbia & Montenegro
Georgia G
G i Greece C h R
Czech Republic
bli
Slovakia Belarus Romania Ukraine
Yemen Botswana Zimbabwe
Namibia
33. Global Soybean Yield : Case A
Precip(+) & Yield (‐) Peru Haiti El
Salvador Honduras Portugal Spain
Guinea Mali Senegal Ethiopia Uganda Iraq
Israel Central African Republic Albania
Croatia Italy Georgia Greece Turkey Austria
Croatia Italy Georgia Greece Turkey Austria
Hungary Poland Belgium France Germany
g y g y
Netherlands Switzerland Romania Somalia
urkmenistan Saudi Arabia Nepal China
k d b l h
South Korea Cambodia Vietnam Zimbabwe
South Korea Cambodia Vietnam Zimbabwe
New Zealand
34. Topics
1.DATASETS USED
2.Relationships among temperature,
2 Relationships among temperature
precipitation, and fertilizer for major crop
yield such as Maize, Rice, Soybean and Wheat
3.Future prospect for soybean yield
3 Future prospect for soybean yield
4.CAIFA concept (Climate, Agriculture, Impacts,
p ( , g , p ,
Fertilizer, Adaptation)
35. Back Ground economic development
SRES concept
A1b A2
• rapid economic growth • low economic growth
• low population growth • high population growth
• efficient technology • low technological change
global local
B1 B2
• sustainable development • low economic growth
• high economic growth • medium population growth
• low population growth
• slow technological change
environmental protection
36. A1b Scenario
Source: CIESIN, Columbia University
http://beta.ciesin.columbia.edu/datasets/do
wnscaled/
l d/
37. A2 Scenario
Source: CIESIN, Columbia University
http://beta.ciesin.columbia.edu/datasets/do
wnscaled/
l d/
38. B1 Scenario
Source: CIESIN, Columbia University
http://beta.ciesin.columbia.edu/datasets/do
wnscaled/
l d/
39. B2 Scenario
Source: CIESIN, Columbia University
http://beta.ciesin.columbia.edu/datasets/do
wnscaled/
l d/
40. Future Prospect for crop yield in China
The GCM output’s average from 1971 to
2000 is calculated and imposed in 0.5
2000 i l l t d di di 05
degree spatial dataset.
g p
The GCM outputs based on SRES scenarios
in 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 are
in 2010 2020 2030 2040 and 2050 are
obtained and imposed in 0.5 degree spatial
dataset.
Datasets are provided by Kenji Sugimoto(2011)
42. Future Prospect for crop yield in China
200,000
180,000
Maize_Yield_Calculated
M i Yi ld C l l d Maize_Yield_Actual
M i Yi ld A l
160,000
140,000
120,000
Ha
Unit:Hg/H
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
48. Future Prospect for crop yield in China
180,000
Wheat_Yield_Calculated
Wheat_Yield_Actual
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
Ha
Unit:Hg/H
80,000
60,000
40,000
40 000
20,000
0
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
49. Topics
1.Back Ground and Advantage of using
Geographical Information System
Geographical Information System
2.DATASETS USED
3.Relationships among temperature,
precipitation, and fertilizer for major crop
precipitation and fertilizer for major crop
yield ( Maize, Rice, Soybean, Wheat)
4.Future prospect for major crop yield
5.CAIFA concept (Climate, Agriculture, Impacts,
Fertilizer, Adaptation)
Fertilizer, Adaptation)