1. Simulated Effects of Climate Change on
Food Security in China toward 2050
Liming Ye
Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Beijing 100081, China
ICCCFS 2011, 7‐8 November 2011, Beijing China

2. Introduction
9.6
million
km2
1.3
billion
people
30% flat
surface
560
p./km2

3. Cropland in China
Cropland:
14% of
Land Area
0.1 ha./
capita

4. Challenges for Food Security

5. Danger of Food Insecurity
Per Capita Values

6. Research Settings

7. Crop Modeling
Rice
Yield Simulation Error
Yield Observation Stations
Yield simulated using CERES
model and compared to
observed yield.

8. Cropping Area and Irrigation Probability
Rainfed Maize
Irrigated Maize
Cropping area extraction
using satellite imagery and
the cross entropy theory.

9. Cropping Area and Irrigation Probability
Irrigation
Probability

10. Yield Growth Rate under Climate Change
Wheat

11. Yield Growth Rate under Climate Change
Wheat

12. Yield Growth Rate under Climate Change: Summary

13. Crop Yield under Climate Change: Summary

14. Scenario Settings

15. Food Self‐Sufficiency Outlooks
140
1st 5‐yr pl.
Start of
Self‐sufficiency (%)
reforms
120
100
Great Leap SS increases only as
Forward population decreases!
90

16. Concluding Remarks
Effect of CC on food production in China is
mainly reflected by the decrease in yield
growth rate and the increase in spatial and
temporal uncertainties;
Population growth rate controls the future
food self‐sufficiency level in China. A growth
in population size will likely drag the SS down
under CC;
CC effect on yield is nonlinear, either spatially
or temporally. Attention is thus called to use
proper scale for decision making.

17. Acknowledgements
CAAS
Wei Xiong, Zhengguo Li, Peng Yang, Wenbin Wu,
Guixia Yang, Zhongxin Chen, Huajun Tang
Renmin Univ of China
Yijiang Fu
Ghent University, Belgium
Eric Van Ranst