This document summarizes a large scale integrated modeling study from southern Germany that assessed global change impacts on groundwater and water supply. The study used an integrated modeling framework called DANUBIA that coupled 16 models to simulate regional actor responses to global change in the water domain. The models assessed how climate and socioeconomic changes could impact groundwater recharge, groundwater levels, agriculture, and human decisions around water use and supply. The modeling showed potential declines in groundwater levels and increases in human adaptation responses like expanded water resources or crisis management. The integrated modeling approach provided insights but also had challenges around data needs and computational demands.
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Global change impacts roland barthel
1. Global change impacts on groundwater and water supply –
an integrated modelling study from southern Germany
Roland Barthel1, Tim G. Reichenau2, Markus Muerth3, Christoph Heinzeller3, Karl Schneider2, Rolf
Hennicker4, Wolfram Mauser3, Tatjana Krimly5, Michael Elbers6, Anja Soboll7, Johann
Wackerbauer8, Stephan Janisch4, Stephan Dabbert5, Jürgen Schmude7, Andreas Ernst6
1 Department
of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg,
Sweden
2 Hydrogeography
and Climatology, University of Cologne, Germany
Geography and Remote Sensing, Ludwig-MaximiliansUniversity Munich, Germany
4 Institute of Informatics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich,
Germany
5 Institute for Farm Management, Universität Hohenheim, Germany
6 Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel,
Germany
7 Economic Geography and Tourism Research, Ludwig-Maximiliansof Munich, Germany
8 CESifo Group, Center for Economic Studies, Munich, Germany
3 Physical
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2. Literature
This presentation tried to summarize very briefly a few selected aspects from a large scale
integrated research effort. It might be difficult to understand the scope and objectives based on
the slides without further explanations.
•
The presentation was largely based on the papers:
–
–
Barthel, R., Janisch, S., N. Schwarz, A. Trifkovic, D. Nickel, C. Schulz, W. Mauser (2008): An integrated modelling
framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environmental Modelling
and Software, 23, 1095-1121 (doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.02.004)
–
•
Barthel, R., Reichenau T., Krimly, T., Dabbert, S., Schneider, K., Mauser, W. (2012) Integrated modeling of climate
change impacts on agriculture and groundwater resources. Water Resources Management, 26,7, 1929-1951
Barthel, R. (2011): An indicator approach to assessing and predicting the quantitative state of groundwater bodies on the
river basin scale with a special focus on the impacts of climate change. Hydrogeology Journal (2011) 19,3: 525–546.
DOI: 10.1007/s10040-010-0693-y
Other directly related papers:
–
Barthel, R., Janisch, S., Nickel, D. & Trifkovic, A. (2010): Using the Multiactor-Approach in GLOWA-Danube to Simulate
Decisions for the Water Supply Sector under Conditions of Global Climate Change. – Water Resources Management,
24,2, 239-275 (DOI - 10.1007/s11269-009-9445-y)
–
Barthel, R. Rojanschi, Wolf, J. & Braun, J. (2005): Large-scale water resources management within the framework of
GLOWA-Danube. Part A: The groundwater model. - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 30, 6-7, 2005, Pages 372-382
–
Barthel, R., Jagelke, J., Gaiser, T., Printz, A. & Götzinger, J. (2008): Aspects of choosing appropriate concepts for
modelling groundwater resources in regional Integrated Water Resources Management – Examples from the Neckar
(Germany) and Ouémé catchment (Benin). - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 33, 1-2, 92-114
–
Soboll, A, Elbers, M., Barthel, R., Schmude, J., Ernst A., Ziller, R. (2011): Scenarios of future water demand: Regional
scale modelling of the human-environment-system to support decision making under global change conditions. Mitigation
and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 16,4 (2011) 477-498. - DOI: 10.1007/s11027-010-9274-6.
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3. Climate Change Global Change
European, national and federal state directives
Data source: State Environmental Agency Baden-Württemberg
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4. Global Change – Example: Agriculture - Groundwater
Drivers: Changes
of outer Conditions
Processes, Budget and Property
Changes
Water
Balance
Climate
Changes of: Ecological
and Economical States
GW-Recharge
GW-Quantity
Plant
Growth
Policy / Water
Law
Product Prices
/ Agricultural
Policy
Legend
Irrigation
Crop Yields
N-Fertilization
GW-Quality
Land use
Farmers’
Income
Farmers’
Decisions
main direction of dependency
strong
medium
weak
foremost gw-quantity
related dependency
foremost gw-quality
related dependency
dependency related to both gw-quantity and gw-quality
dependency
indirect or complex or not well understood dependency
Source: Barthel et al. (2012)
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5. Global Change – Example: Agriculture - Groundwater
Scenarios
Models
Water
Balance
Climate
Indicators
GW-Recharge
GW-Quantity
Plant
Growth
Policy / Water
Law
Product Prices
/ Agricultural
Policy
Legend
Irrigation
Crop Yields
N-Fertilization
GW-Quality
Land use
Farmers’
Income
Farmers’
Decisions
main direction of dependency
strong
medium
weak
foremost gw-quantity
related dependency
foremost gw-quality
related dependency
dependency related to both gw-quantity and gw-quality
dependency
indirect or complex or not well understood dependency
Source: Barthel et al. (2012)
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6. GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de; 2001 - 2010)
“Integrative Techniques, Scenarios and Strategies for the Future of
Water in the Upper Danube Basin”
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7. GLOWA-Danube – The Upper Danube Catchment
Upper Danube Catchment:
• Area: 77,000 km²
• Population: 11.5 Mio.
• Elevation: 290 to ~4000 m
Rivers
Lakes
Alluvium
Moraines
Tertiary Sediments
Calcareous Alps
Jurassic Karst
Mesozoic Rocks
Crystalline and
Palaezoic Rocks
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8. GLOWA-Danube: Project Summary
•
Consequences of Global Change in the Upper Danube Catchment
•
Interdisciplinary Approach: 18 research groups from different disciplines
•
Integrated decision support tool ‘DANUBIA’, comprised of 16 fully
coupled models
•
Contribution of our research group (IWS Stuttgart):
– Hydrogeological assessment
– Models for groundwater flow and contaminant transport
– Model for water supply and distribution
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9. The DANUBIA Simulation System
From: Hennicker et al. (2010)
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10. GLOWA-Danube Global Change Scenarios 2011-2060
Choice 1:
Climate Trends
Choice 2:
Climate Type
IPCC regional
Baseline
Baseline
REMO regional
5 warm Winters
Open competition
MM5 regional
Trend Extrapolation
5 hot Summers
Choice 3:
Social Trends
Choice 4:
Interventions
Information
Cooperation
Subsidies for
Water saving techn.
Public welfare
5 dry years
Build reservoirs
...
•
Baseline: Business as usual
•
Open competition: maximizing individual profit, less consideration
of environmental and social aspects
•
Public welfare: high value of environmental aspects
From: Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube Catchment (2011)
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11. Climate Change – Past Observations: Temperature (1960-2006)
Winter Temperatures: + 1.5 degrees
Summer Temperatures: + 2 degrees
Source: Global Change Atlas of the Upper
Danube Catchment
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12. Climate Change – Past Observations: Precipitation 1960-2006
Summer Precipitation
Winter Precipitation
Source: Global Change Atlas of the Upper
Danube Catchment
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13. Simulation results: Groundwater recharge and groundwater levels
Recharge Differences [mm]
< -600
-600 - -301
a)
Günzburg
GW-Level-Differences
(combined) [m]
b)
< -10
-9.9 - -5.0
-300 - -201
-4.9- -2.0
-200 - -101
-1.9- -1.0
-0.9 - 0.9
-100 - -51
1.0 -1.9
-50 - 50
2.0-4.9
51 - 100
101 - 200
5.0 - 9.9
Ostallgäu
>10
>200
Scenario 2036-2060 minus
Reference (1970-2000)
nicht modellierte
Areas not modeled
Bereiche
with MODFLOW
Scenario 2011-2035 minus
Reference (1970-2000)
From: Barthel et al. (2012)
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15. Adaptation (decision making): example groundwater changes (on district level)
g
GWL Open Competition
600
430
500
429
400
428
300
427
200
426
100
425
0
424
2016
GWR
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2051
2056
GWL Open Competition
600
734
500
733
400
732
critical
Everything is fine
300
200
Groundwater Quantity
100
Indicator (“Flag”)
731
730
1
2
3
729
0
728
2011
2016
Günzburg district
Danube low lands,
arable land,
wide alluvial aquifers
Translation into “decision relevant information”
GWR low pass filtered
GWL Baseline Ostallgäu
Groundwater Recharge [mm/a]
2046
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.]
2011
Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.]
GWR, low pass filtered
GWL Baseline Günzburg
Groundwater Recharge [mm/a]
GWR
2051
Ostallgäu district
pre-alpine, grasscatastrophic
land, narrow alluvial
and tertiary aquifers
4
5
2056
Barthel (2011), Hydrogeology Journal
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16. Modelling of human decisions : Actor Modelling
Barthel, R., et al. (2008), Environmental Modelling and Software,
at each time step (1 month)
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17. Example (schematic): Decisions made by Water Supply Companies
Models
GroundwaterFlow; Soil,
groundwaterlevel,
groundwater recharge,
-baseflow
WaterSupply-Model
Assessment of state
and previous
development
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Buisness as
usual
Flag values
>=3
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Information campaigns,
expansion of resources,
crisis management
17
18. Modeling of human decisions : Water Supply
• Decisions (choosing a plan and its actions) based on:
– local conditions (hydrogeology, groundwater levels…)
indictors (flags)
– individual preferences and properties and
– global settings Societal Scenarios
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19. Water Demand and Withdrawal [m3/s]
Industrial Groundwater Demand [m3/s]
Responses of the human actors: Household Water Demand
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20. Conclusions
•
Global Change impact assessment:
– Needs to be done in an integrated way: people and the environment will adopt
to change
– Needs to be done on the regional scale
– Requires reasonable integrated scenarios, i.e. combined environmental-socioeconomic scenarios
•
The DANUBIA system comprises all this, but:
– It is a complex system that requires experienced users and has high
computational demands
– It requires lots of input data
•
Climate change impact assessment on water resources
– Requires much better regional projections of precipitation!
– Purely scientific approaches to integrated modeling are probably not the ideal
solution
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21. More information
•
DANUBIA is available under an open source license
•
All models, scenarios, data sources and many results are
published in the Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube
Catchment, available also in English shortly at:
www.glowa-danube.de
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