the future of work and the changing workplace challenges
Northern Territory President
White Paper: people@work/2020
• After nearly three years of research, this Australian Human
Resources Institute (AHRI) white paper reviews and assesses the
major trends and issues likely to influence people at work by the
year 2020, together with expected impacts on workplace structure,
performance and professional leadership.
Peter Wilson AM, AHRI National President
• 1980s: A Nation at Risk
– Loss of firm competitiveness to Japan & Germany
• 1990s: The War for Talent
– Skill shortages and demographic time bomb
• Today & Tomorrow: The Flat World &
Global Economic Crisis
– Internet creates global work platform
– Facilitates movement of now scarce jobs
Noun: The time or a period of
time following the moment of
speaking or writing; time
regarded as still to come.
Adjective: At a later time; going
or likely to happen or exist:
"the needs of future
Synonyms: noun. futurity -
hereafter - tomorrow
adjective. coming -
prospective - unborn -
forthcoming - next
EIGHT FORCES SHAPING THE FUTURE
1. Global competition
2. Technological and communication breakthroughs
3. Demand for personal flexibility
4. Skills convergence
5. Macroeconomic and demographic changes
6. Global best practice
7. Changing business standards e.g. CSR, ethics
8. Government imposition of regulations
2. Continued breakthroughs in IT &
EIGHT MAJOR TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS
o IT modernisation
o Enterprise information management (EIM)
o Business process management (BPM)
o IT consumerisation
o Unified communications –
o Mobile devices
o Smart grids
o Cloud computing
TECHNOLOGIES in our WORKPLACES can:
• Facilitate massive and immediate communication to anyone,
• Distribute the locations of work
• Lead to higher skilled work patterns at home, work or in remote
• Enable a greater personalisation of work through „universal but
• Improve talent management, career performance, communications
• Provide more flexible approaches to restructuring the workplace
• Increase access to professional knowledge
3. Demand for personal flexibility &
4. Skills convergence in multi-disciplinary
8. Sustained imposition of regulatory solutions
Work was a place we used to go to
now it’s something we do….
Three external spaces of work
Solitary Multi learning & Café networking
workstation interactive zone
Three internal spaces of work
Core office functionality in 2020?
• 3 internal spaces – café style area,
combined learning centres, thinking,
• A more flexible external workstation-
connect via customised portals –
So what does it all mean for people@work?
Boundary of work & home will disappear
People, performance & productivity measures = critical
Successful relationships = key driver
Communication power will enable more flexible learning &
distributed work patterns in the internal & external work spaces
CSR, ethical values & risk = key business enablers
Non-core HR transactions entirely outsourced
So what does it all mean for us in 2020?
Skill shortages & talent will still challenge workplaces
Education a lifelong learning process at work
The world of business will be driven by networks
Communication power will enable more flexible learning
& distributed work patterns
Behind the scenes of people@work …
Gen X & Y attitudes for better work-life balance
New media enable flexible & distributed work patterns
Baby boomers seek longer term workforce engagement -
high correlation to mental & physical health, longevity
Ageing & female workers drive compressed & P/T roles
“If you don‟t have a competitive advantage,
People are the competitive advantage”
The biggest Questions!!!!!
• How do we engage the workforce of the
• What are the tools we need to have at the
The biggest Questions!!!!!
• What has to change to achieve a more
skilled productive and competitive
• We should use technology because we
need it not just use because we can?
• We must think skill ecosystems,
not just vocational education and training?
Notas del editor
DP1Two and a half years of work DP2Global Competition, IT revolution, new vales in workplaceDP3-4What it means for us (9); how do we square up against that?
Predictions that by 2030 60% of current jobs could be automatedAustralia’s lagging performance in productivity and innovation
1. Global CompetitionThe World of business is now a very tough place, but its not going to change eitherIt’s a Global world where openness , connectivity, and rapid change thrive.Speed of transfer of GFC is a major demonstration of this – product life cycles are short; speed to market is enormous; Google – 12 year old company worth $23B.Thomas Friedman said – each & every job will be competed for by people from every corner of the planet..Australia punches above its weight eg G20 - but 0.3% pop; 1.3% world GDPStrong integration with Asia – no turning back from 30 years of persistent and consistent economic and political changeAHRI F of Wk SC – reviewed the great scenarios from MIT, BCA, WEF plus all available and best research locally and globally – what does globalisation mean for us.Has produced celebration by, and also intimidation of Gen X & Y unsure what their career future is – disengaged with current workplace & leadership approachesHow different are X & Y – Tamara Erickson – tech devices; swarming; know me and take care of meDesire for stronger ethical values in leadership Globalisation wont change in its speed and impact but how do we gain the benefits of that and also engage the NextGEN ?
Internet / MS Outlook / Email / Blackberry / Mobile PC / Facebook / Youtube / Twitter / Skype / Live videoconferencing / Software have enabled -massive & immediate comms to anyone / anytime / anywhereDemands for greater personal flexibilityChanged power structures and balance towards customer service point & amongst co-workers – twittering corporate CSR brands & rep’ndistributed work patterns – home / work / remotelysophisticated programs to manage talent, career, performance & engagement, via ‘my portal’Has driven Ormond / NAB flexible model to restructure external workplaceSmarter Companies are capturing not resisting the potential to reorganise their workplaces and work flexibility eg IBM useslinked’In to check on effectiveness of their interview and recruitment proceduresAlso driving the social phenomenon of intellectual obesity amongst Gen Y
IT modernisation – complex and integrated web based processes Enterprise information management (EIM) – consolidated and structured data management at the enterprise level that enables improvements to governance, quality and intelligence via data provision from centralised exchanges Business process management (BPM) – which starts with IT based process design and then moves to use this for more integrated performance measurement IT consumerisation – social software (e.g. online blogs, wiki, tweets, Facebook, chat forums), web 2.0 capabilities which are outcomes of EIM. Unified communications – the convergence of voice and data networks and applications, e.g. call centres servicing customers over multiple channels, tailored customer service and electronic payment channelsMobile devices – e.g. iPhone, Blackberry, PCSmart grids – online management of integrated customer service zones and regionsCloud computing – shared data centres allowing reduced costs through economies of scale and open sourced competition.
3. Demand for personal flexibilityThe pace of work continues to rise, but employees are starting to demand flexibility and solutions customised to meet their needsChanging workspaces including:Remote office, home or ‘café translated as: solitary workstations, interactive, multi learning ‘shared spaces’ or café networking Life is a juggle – bending over backwards at work is the new core competencyBut the quid pro quo for working at high pressure is we want our flexibility and solutions customised to us Eg Governments are going crazy about public transport but– still growing & main form Jy2Wk (66%) is the Single person / car Live closer to work / life/ sports / entertainment = Density up – Housing - flats (15%) & away from homes (72%)Concentration of singles, DINCs closer to CBD; Growth in couples w/t children (20%); lone persons (10%); I parent families(10%); Fall in Families w U15 Children (35%)Harder on Working familiesaverage families more dispersed – longer journey to work; living further outBut flexible working practices are emerging to support flexibility and family life20% pop’n are volunteers – couples 29%; older people – 22%20% women 50-74 now caring for other people’s childrenPutting pressure on classical open plan – single location approaches
4. Skill convergenceLearning is truly ‘life long’ and access to knowledge and information is across multiple professional spaces Younger generation know how to grab onto all these learning opportunities - this is a Permanent change – needs to become a core workforce planning assumptionSkills convergence is rife; boundaries are being broken down everywhere - sometimes without much quality control Learning / knowledge now occurring across multiple professional spacesMost notorious example – younger teenager from developing country can learn how to make and set off a bomb with simple instructions from the internet.This is no longer the sole preserve of Her Majesty’s Royal Engineers.Take a simpler and safer example – actuarial algorithms on population structure and growth now available on a simple software program for #39.95; no longer need an graduated and accredited actuarial expert to forecast your workforce shape, or calculate your company’s pension deficit.Younger generation know how to grab onto all these opportunties.This is a Permanent change – needs to become a core workforce planning assumption
5. Macroeconomic and demographic changesinterconnectivity across the globehigher economic growth but higher volatility tooBy 2050, 40% Europe’s population & 60% of workers will be over 60Tipping PointIn Aust : by 2020 retirees outnumber new startsOlder workersHigher Female participation / 20% more women at University now than men.More Part Time jobsWorking Hours higher, esp ProfessionalsCompressed jobs pre retirement “4x10 + 3”Mobility – 43% changed addresses last 5 years Major & chronic skill shortages – acc’g; eng; trades; IT; healthMigration source – 50% growth is Asia; 50% Euro – old avUnemp lower; income & careers higher - 2nd generation @Oz Skilled migration varying from 100,000 – 130,000 pa66% students now combining (P/T) work & study50% of working students in sales or service92% Personal income still W&S Incomes higher with professional quals & CBD workersMACROECONOMYEconomic speed and interconnectivity shown by GFCMore trade exposed countriesHigher economic growth but higher volatility too
6. Global Best PracticeWorld’s most admired companies’, by shareholder value, are those that havebusiness strategies matched by people strategiesbest people management practices and strategiesstrong CSR programsprofit performance driven by sustainability“Wayne Cascio reported that firms that cut more than 10% staff during a recession would lose at least another 15% voluntary attrition over the next 2 years”Apple - new no 1 from the 2008 & 2009 survey GE – regularly no 1 or 2 in the last 10 yearsGoogle is the new Number 2Other examples:Amazon.com, Berkshire Hathaway, Fedex and Microsoft - USANestle – SwitzerlandSamsung – KoreaSiemens – GermanL’Oreal - FranceTesco & HSBC from UK – HSBC now world’s biggest bankAustralia competes among globally admired brigade, include:BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Woodside4 of world’s top 10 banks, AMP, AXA & QBE CSL, Bluescope, Lion NathanWorld’s most admired companies’, by shareholder value, are those that have: business strategies matched by people strategiesbest people management practices and strategiesstrong CSR programsprofit performance driven by sustainability
7. Changing business standardsEthical Leadership - new post GFC game Rebuilding creativity in education – Sir Ken RobinsonStrong workplace values and behavioursQBL lives as main game – people, customers, society, environmentSo 2020 HR will be built around betterCSR programs that are endemic in how people are to be managedValues & 360 DF – a common standard nowFrom Balanced to Integrated ScorecardsStaff Engagement& AlignmentHuman Synergistics - OCI & LSIEthical Leadership - new post GFC game Enron – have we forgotten them so quickly?James Hardie case – Lessons for all Directors & ExecutivesRebuilding creativity in education – Sir Ken RobinsonPaul McCartney was a musical failure @ LAFAApple say PC still only has the brain of a cricketInspiring students to be creative is the key biz challengeworkplace team, values & flexibility skillsE.g. - fostering Linda Gratton’s ‘Hot Spots’likeTesco, BP, and HSBC – where internal co-operation is fierce
8. Government imposition of regulationsMore signs of regulation and re-industrialisationObama – Buy US – Feb 09In AustraliaFair Work Act & transmission of business and bargaining provisionsExecutive Remuneration controlsFair Work Act & transmission of business and bargaining provisionsExecutive Remuneration controlsRSPT here for now.One thing is for sure the sensible light handed regulators will outperform the heavy handed – globalisation will ensure that happens
HOME & WORK BOUNDARIES HAVE DISAPPEAREDThe nine new ‘space’ stations of work The external spaces ooffice, home or ‘café (anywhere anytime)The internal space of worksolitary workstations, interactive, multi learning ‘shared spaces’ or café networking Or any combination of the above!FLEXIBILITY & ORMOND / NAB modelSECTION A – bottom LHS What control freak baby boomer bosses are fighting to preserve – the old fixed space station of work where everyone congregates 8-10 hours a daySad news for them is that the new space stations of the modern workplace don’t stand still. They are mobile, interactive and move to the needs of people and the customer New world has 9 Space Stations3 external spaces – 3 internal spaces = 9 space stations of workCould have been 27 as tall towering head offices being broken down into small corp office – regional hubs – and smart shops supported by powerful IT Google mountain View understand this in spadesIT enables this & NextGEN attitudes demand itAS workplace transformers – we need to buy into what Finance & Property are doing to people !!
People , talent, learning , performance, reward & risk mgt metrics will be powerful, sophisticated & centralised
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