Liberal Democracy in transition - the first 30 years

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Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics

This presentation is made by Torbjörn Becker. Presented during the Development Day conference 2019.

Economía y finanzas

Liberal democracy in transition—
the first 30 years
Torbjörn Becker, Director SITE
torbjorn.becker@hhs.se
November, 2019

FREE Network
CEFIR
ISET
KSE
BEROC
BICEPS
CenEA
SITE

The first 30 years—the BIG (messy) picture
Data from V-Dem
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Liberal democracy index
Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria Belarus CzechRepublic Estonia Georgia Hungary
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lithuania Latvia Moldova Poland Romania Russia
Slovakia Slovenia Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan EU10 FSU12

Varieties of the BIG picture
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
V-Dem: Liberal democracy
EU10 FSU12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Freedom House: Political rights
EU10 FSU12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Freedom House: Civil liberties
EU10 FSU12
-5
0
5
10
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Polity IV project: Polity2
EU10 FSU12

The early phase of transition
Data from V-Dem
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00
2009
Start of transition data 1989, 1990,1991,1993
Liberal democracy changes from start of transition to 2009
Belarus
Armenia
Avg. EU 10
Avg. FSU 12

The later phase of transition
Data from V-Dem
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00
2018
2009
Liberal democracy changes 2009-2018
Ukraine
Romania
Bulgaria
Hungary
Poland
Czech rep.
Avg. EU 10
Avg. FSU 12

Declines in 5 of EU10
Data from V-Dem
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Liberal democracy index
Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania

How liberal democracy is undermined
Data from V-Dem
BLR HUN POL UKR ROU CZE BGR ARM
Start of decline 1994 2010 2015 2007 2016 2008 2016 1995
Election year 1994 2010 2015 2007 2016 2008 2016 1995
Years of decline 3 9 3 8 2 10 2 2
Lib.dem. -0.32 -0.28 -0.25 -0.23 -0.18 -0.14 -0.13 -0.12
Free expr/info -0.32 -0.33 -0.26 -0.21 -0.16 -0.06 -0.11 -0.06
Free assoc. -0.23 -0.13 -0.07 -0.23 -0.10 -0.05 -0.03 -0.09
Suffrage 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Clean elect. -0.21 -0.22 0.00 -0.20 0.08 -0.04 -0.09 -0.38
Elect. Off. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Law -0.16 -0.06 -0.07 -0.29 -0.09 -0.01 -0.02 0.02
Jud.con. exec. -0.63 -0.12 -0.28 -0.12 -0.41 -0.08 -0.10 -0.01
Leg.con. exec. -0.64 -0.25 -0.12 -0.24 -0.36 -0.10 0.03 0.00

Growth in transition
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
GDP per capita relative to EU15
EU10 Poland FSU12 Russian Federation
Data from World Bank Development indicators

Life in transition
55
60
65
70
75
80
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Life expectancy
EU10 Poland FSU12 Russia
Data from World Bank Development indicators

Politics in transition
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Liberal democracy index
EU10 Poland FSU12 Russia
Data from V-Dem

Policy briefs on transition and other issues at
freepolicybriefs.org

1
Thanks!
Please visit http://freepolicybriefs.org for research based policy analysis, it’s FREE!

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Liberal Democracy in transition - the first 30 years

1. Liberal democracy in transition— the first 30 years Torbjörn Becker, Director SITE torbjorn.becker@hhs.se November, 2019

2. FREE Network CEFIR ISET KSE BEROC BICEPS CenEA SITE

3. The first 30 years—the BIG (messy) picture Data from V-Dem 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Liberal democracy index Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria Belarus CzechRepublic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lithuania Latvia Moldova Poland Romania Russia Slovakia Slovenia Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan EU10 FSU12

4. Varieties of the BIG picture 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 V-Dem: Liberal democracy EU10 FSU12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Freedom House: Political rights EU10 FSU12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Freedom House: Civil liberties EU10 FSU12 -5 0 5 10 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Polity IV project: Polity2 EU10 FSU12

5. The early phase of transition Data from V-Dem 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00 2009 Start of transition data 1989, 1990,1991,1993 Liberal democracy changes from start of transition to 2009 Belarus Armenia Avg. EU 10 Avg. FSU 12

6. The later phase of transition Data from V-Dem 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00 2018 2009 Liberal democracy changes 2009-2018 Ukraine Romania Bulgaria Hungary Poland Czech rep. Avg. EU 10 Avg. FSU 12

7. Declines in 5 of EU10 Data from V-Dem 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Liberal democracy index Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania

8. How liberal democracy is undermined Data from V-Dem BLR HUN POL UKR ROU CZE BGR ARM Start of decline 1994 2010 2015 2007 2016 2008 2016 1995 Election year 1994 2010 2015 2007 2016 2008 2016 1995 Years of decline 3 9 3 8 2 10 2 2 Lib.dem. -0.32 -0.28 -0.25 -0.23 -0.18 -0.14 -0.13 -0.12 Free expr/info -0.32 -0.33 -0.26 -0.21 -0.16 -0.06 -0.11 -0.06 Free assoc. -0.23 -0.13 -0.07 -0.23 -0.10 -0.05 -0.03 -0.09 Suffrage 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Clean elect. -0.21 -0.22 0.00 -0.20 0.08 -0.04 -0.09 -0.38 Elect. Off. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Law -0.16 -0.06 -0.07 -0.29 -0.09 -0.01 -0.02 0.02 Jud.con. exec. -0.63 -0.12 -0.28 -0.12 -0.41 -0.08 -0.10 -0.01 Leg.con. exec. -0.64 -0.25 -0.12 -0.24 -0.36 -0.10 0.03 0.00

9. Growth in transition 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GDP per capita relative to EU15 EU10 Poland FSU12 Russian Federation Data from World Bank Development indicators

10. Life in transition 55 60 65 70 75 80 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Life expectancy EU10 Poland FSU12 Russia Data from World Bank Development indicators

11. Politics in transition 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Liberal democracy index EU10 Poland FSU12 Russia Data from V-Dem

12. Policy briefs on transition and other issues at freepolicybriefs.org

13. 1 Thanks! Please visit http://freepolicybriefs.org for research based policy analysis, it’s FREE!

Liberal Democracy in transition - the first 30 years

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Liberal Democracy in transition - the first 30 years