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Measuring Nonpoint Source Nutrient Reduction - Mississippi River
1. Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia and Nutrient
Reduction Goals and Challenges in
the Mississippi River Basin
August 1, 2017
2. Our Agenda Today:
โข Overview of Partnership, Mississippi River Basin Goals and Tracking Progress
โข Katie Flahive, US EPA, Hypoxia Task Force Coordinating Committee Federal Co-chair
โข Moira Mcdonald, Walton Family Foundation
โข State Perspective, Need for Nonpoint Source Reporting
โข Matt Lechtenberg, Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Hypoxia Task
Force Coordinating Committee State Co-chair and NPS Measures Workgroup Chair
โข Julie Harrold, Indiana State Department of Agriculture, Pilot State
โข Development Team Perspective
โข Laura Christianson, University of Illinois, SERA-46 member
โข Reid Christianson, University of Illinois, Project Lead
โข Future Involvement by Other Stakeholders
โข Panel and audience open discussion, facilitated by Rebecca Power, University of Wisconsin
and Amanda Gumbert, University of Kentucky (SERA-46 Development Team Members)
4. โข US Army Corps of Engineers
โข US Environmental Protection
Agency
โข US Department of Agriculture
โข US Geological Survey
โข National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
โข National Tribal Water Council
5 Federal Agencies and Tribes:
12 State Agencies:
โข Arkansas
โข Missouri
โข Iowa
โข Tennessee
โข Minnesota
โข Indiana
โข Ohio
โข Louisiana
โข Illinois
โข Mississippi
โข Kentucky
โข Wisconsin
Each state is represented by one of:
Agriculture agency, Environmental Quality agency, or Natural
Resources agency
Hypoxia Task Force Members
Mississippi River Basin
HTF States
5. History of the Hypoxia Task Force
โข Formed in the late 1990s based on the White House Committee on
Environment and Natural Resourcesโ โIntegrated Assessmentโ
โข Scientific basis for 2001 Action Plan
โข Led to focus on N reduction in the MARB
โข 2004 white paper ๏ Is P a co-driver of the hypoxic zone?
โข 2001 Action Plan called for Reassessment
โข Convened four science symposia
โข EPA Science Advisory Board formed a panel, took symposia outcomes
โข 2008 revised Action Plan
โข Calls for need for state strategies and dual nutrient reduction effort
โข Called for 2013 Reassessment
6. Current HTF Focus Areas
โข Tracking progress towards the goal
โข Nutrient Reduction Strategies
โข SERA-46 Priorities for Collaboration
โข Collaboration and Partnerships
โข Communicating Success
7. HTF Focus: State Nutrient Strategies
HTF Progress to Date
โข All twelve states have developed
draft or completed strategies
โข Implementation on the ground in
state priority watersheds
โข Point Source Measures Report,
2016
โข NPS Measures Report in 2017
โข Revised Federal Strategy, 2016
โข Continue to build and leverage
partnerships
8. HTF Science Based Goal
Coastal Goal:
By 2035, reduce 5-year running average size
of the Gulf hypoxic zone to 5,000 km2
Interim Target:
20% reduction of nitrogen and
phosphorus loading by 2025
9. NOAA, USGS and partners predict third largest Gulf of
Mexico summer โdead zoneโ ever
Larger-than-average low and no oxygen area may affect the regionโs shrimp fisheries
โข Federal scientists forecast that this summerโs Gulf of Mexico dead zone will be approximately 8,185 square
miles, or about the size of New Jersey.
โข This would be the third largest dead zone recorded since monitoring began 32 years ago โ the average Gulf
dead zone since then has been 5,309 square miles.
โข The Gulf dead zone may also slow shrimp growth, leading to fewer large shrimp, according to a NOAA-
funded study led by Duke University.
โข This yearโs predicted large size is due mainly to heavy May stream flows, which were about 34 percent above
the long-term average and carried higher-than-average nutrient loads. The USGS estimates that 165,000 metric
tons of nitrate and 22,600 metric tons of phosphorus flowed down the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers into
the Gulf of Mexico in May.
โข The partners plan to confirm the size of the 2017 Gulf dead zone in early August, following monitoring surveys.
โข The ensemble of models that are the foundation of the forecast was developed by NOAA-sponsored teams of
researchers at the University of Michigan, Louisiana State University, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium,
Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences/College of William and Mary, Texas A&M University, North Carolina State
University and the USGS.
11. N&P Sources
USGS SPARROW model estimates of sources of total nitrogen and total phosphorus
transported from Mississippi River Basin to Gulf of Mexico (Robertson and Saad 2013).
12. The 2012-2016 five-year average is about
10 percent below the 1980-1996 baseline
period for nitrate and 22 percent above the
baseline period for orthophosphorus
(USGS 2014a).
13. Annual TN and total phosphorus loads in
the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin
transported to the Gulf of Mexico from
1980 to 2015. (USGS 2017)
16. Tracking Progress Towards Our Goal
โข Develop basin-scale nonpoint source measures
โข This year, develop and report on common NPS
metrics by state
โข Point source measures
โข First report out in March 2016
โข Continue to develop PS metrics
โข Modeling considerations
โข How can state information and data be used by
federal and regional modelers in MARB scale
nutrient reduction tracking models?