Using ecological sites and state and transition models
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2018 SWCS International Annual Conference July 29-August 1, 2018 Albuquerque Convention Center
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Using ecological sites and state and transition models
- 1. Mike Kucera, Agronomist USDA-NRCS National Soil Survey Center Lincoln, Nebraska January 22, 2018 https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/sites/default /files/adaptation_resources_workbook_ne_mw.pdf
- 2. Topics โข Ecological Sites/STMs โข Soil Health Transition โข Resiliency Strategies โข Goals of Adaptive Management in Changing Climate โข Farm-Level strategies & results
- 3. Goals of Adaptive Management in Changing Climate โข Mitigation vs. Resilience (different strategies) i.e. adaptive management to mitigate current conditions vs. strategies for building resilience to the impacts of drought, heavy rainfall, etc.) โข Short term resilience (i.e. annual decisions leave more residue, adjust varieties, adjust cover crop termination, crop selection, to account for dry/wet soil conditions, weather forecasts) โข Long term resilience (i.e. focus on long term soil health improvement that improves water and nutrient cycling; such as continuous NT, use of perennial crops, liming, etc. that improve soil conditions to protect from drought, heavy rain events, etc. over a long period )
- 4. Short-Term Resiliency June 13, 2017June 10, 2017 July 26, 2017 August 26, 2017
- 5. Changing Climate Opportunity or Problem? โข Higher CO2 levels? โข Heavier rainfall events/more total rain? โข Shift in rainfall patterns? โข Longer growing season? โข Night time temperatures? โข Frost date widely variable?
- 6. Adaptation Resources USDA Climate Hubs Midwest, Northeast & Northern Forests Adaptation Workbook ๏พ๏พ๏พ๏พ๏พ๏พ Strategies & Approaches ๏พ๏พ๏พ๏พ๏พ๏พ Menu of adaptation actions โข Structured process to integrate variable climate considerations into management decisions โข Workbook 5-step iterative approach
- 7. 7 1. A Menu of Adaptation Strategies & Approaches for Agriculture
- 8. Fertility Management Natural System Dynamics Pests & Invasives CropYield & Revenue Goals Soil Health And more!! Environmental Outcomes Regulations and Neighbor Relations Business Requirements Climate Variability Wildlife Habitat & Recreation Past Management History
- 9. Adaptations Account for Site, Soil, and Climate Variables (Ess)
- 13. Ecological Sites
- 14. Continuous No-till, crop rotation High carbon cover crops Perennial crops Adaptive Management On the Kucera Farm CRP, CSP, EQIP, Local Programs
- 15. Step 1 Goals of Adaptive Management โข Less vulnerable to drought, and heavy rainfall events (reduce risk!). โข Normalize yields and income โข Fertilizer efficiency โข Water conservation/Infiltration uniformity โข Optimize soil health/soil organic matter โข Short and long-term soil resiliency
- 16. 3. Low 1. High 2. Medium 1.1 Short Term High level SHMS following range, pasture 1.2 High Managed Perennial Hayland (long term) 1.3 High Level Soil Health Management System (long term) 3.1 Corn Soybean Conventional Tillage 3.2 Silage/Stover Harvested, Overgrazed CT 2.1 Mulch Tillage/Short term no-till 2.2 Medium Managed/Per. Hayland 3.3 Low condition Hayland Dryland Crop (Loamy Upland) T2A T1A T3A T2B
- 17. Enhanced Cropland State: Conservation Practices 329: Continuous No-till 328: Diverse crop rotation C-SB-W/CC rotated from perennial hayland 330: Contour Farming 340: Cover Crops 528: Prescribed Grazing 386: Field Borders 600: Terraces 412: Grassed Waterway 620: Underground Outlets 590: Nutrient Management (soil testing, zone mgt liming, 4Rs) 595: Pest Mgt (Scouting, Thresholds, Herbicide Resistance Management) Perennial Hayland (2000-2009 same field)
- 18. Assess Climate (informed decisions) โข Drought and rainfall distribution (wet and dry periods) โข Heavy rainfall events (three 4-5 inch rains in 4 yrs) โข Growing season/variable frost dates โข High temperatures (2012) โข Less snowfall but variable โข Model Predictions โข Soil moisture conditions
- 19. Soil Quality Indicators โข Chemical โ Soil test, e.g. P, K, pH, Salinity etc. โข Physical โ Aggregate stability โ Available water capacity โ Crusting โ Compaction layers โ Bulk Density โ Infiltration โข Biological โ Organic matter (soil color) โ Potential mineralizable N โ Active carbon โ Respiration โ Microbe analysis โ Earthworms
- 20. Assess Soil Health Conditions (transition pathways)
- 22. Local Rainfall Network and Drought Monitoring
- 23. Adaptive Management 2012 (severe drought)
- 25. Water Use and Fertilizer Efficiency 2015 - 160 Bushel Corn & 45 Bushel Soybeans
- 26. Wheat0 50 100 150 200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 53 39 72 4732 61 43 51 129 90 185 160 Wheat Soybeans Corn 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 19 15 14.2 16 18.65 12.4 28.8 21.7 26.7 25.6 29.5 26.3 May 1 to Aug 31 Rainfall Yearly Rainfall Bushels/AC Rainfall Inches County Average
- 27. 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.3 5.35.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.7 Soil pH Prior to Liming
- 28. Crary Air Reel
- 29. Poly Skid Shoes
- 31. Adapt Equipment
- 34. Switch to High Residue Cover Crops in 2016 September 2016 November 2016 September 2014
- 35. Future Adaptive Management Strategies?? โข Future Adaptive Management Strategies โ Continue Soil Health Management Principles (cover, disturbance, living root, diversity, compaction) โ Controlled traffic for compaction โ Crop rotation/variety selection Barley; Sorghum; GMO vs. Non GMO, Disease/Pest Resistance varieties โ Cover crop selection and use โ Weed/fertilizer management strategies โ Annual adjustments based on forecasts & conditions โ Test new concepts (To Be Determined)!!!
- 36. Future Farm Goals โข Soil organic matter/soil health โข Long and short-term soil resilience โข Enhance water and nutrient cycle/efficiency โข Yields & Economics (balance between Short vs. Long-Term)!!!
- 37. Adapt, learn, and leave land better for the next generation!!! michael.Kucera@lin.usda.gov https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/ sites/default/files/adaptation_resources _workbook_ne_mw.pdf
Editor's Notes
- Good afternoon and welcome! I am Mike Kucera, Agronomist with USDA-NRCS in Lincoln Nebraska. I am going to discuss the โadaptive management resourcesโ available to help farmers adapt their management and operations to extreme weather and climate variability. My farm is one of the four example farms in the and I will detail both long and short term adaptive management we have used..
- Hail stormโฆ.
- The workbook uses an iterative 5 step approach. The approach can be used with groups of farmers to brainstorm approaches on how to make their farm operations and soils more resilient to weather extremes. Adaptation means that the farmer adapts to conditions and makes management decisions based on the best available information. If you think about this, it is like a business that adapts to present and expected future conditions. This is not new to farmers, who have been adapting to weather extremes and market variables to keep their farming operation profitable.
- The first resource to help producers make farm level decision is the menu of climate adaptation strategies and approaches for agriculture. This can be done with a group of farmers in a workshop setting. Strategies help producers formulate new desired outcomes and approaches identify more specific goals applicable to a particular type of agriculture as adaptation responses vary from commodity crops to orchards to grazing systems and confined animal feeding operations. The report also lists example tactics for each approach. Tactics may be the most familiar level of action to both practitioners and producers as they describe the prescriptive practices and activities most suited to achieving goals and outcomes. While many items on the menu can be used together, not all will nor will they work universally across all farms and locations. It is up to the producer to decide what works best for them. Notice the first strategy listed! THE foundational strategy for any farming, ranching or forestry system is to sustain the fundamental function of soil and water resources โ maintain and improve both soil health and water management.
- Field where sorghum rather than corn was planted on my brothers Nebraska farm. It is important to remember that climate change is just one of the many considerations a producer puts into making a decision. Adaptations are based on climate-informed decisions specifically to address weather variability impacts on goals/objectives. Adaptive actions might be the same or similar to existing practices but include modifications to address weather extremes or variable climate or might be fundamentally different. They can range from small tweaks to the existing systems to completely new systems motivated by different reasons but also resulting in increased climate adaptive capacity.
- Decisions need to be adjusted for site, soil and climate variables. In the block chart diagram you can see how landscape positon can effect water cycling. In addition soils are not all created equally. These concept is similar to site specific management to make fertilizer rates, plant populations and other inputs to maximize yields and economic return. In addition to regional climate differences, seasonal and year to year variability needs to be accounted for.
- The report also features four examples of using the workbook for typical stakeholder groups in the region like field crop commodity producers, confined dairy livestock operations, and grazing operations. An example of a dryland farming system in Nebraska operated by one of the co-authors, Mike Kucera, guides readers in detail through each step of the workbook. The other three examples from Iowa, Missouri, and Pennsylvania summarize considerations and outcomes of going through the climate adaptation process for rain-fed cropping, grazing, and confined dairy farming systems. As extreme precipitation variability is one of the biggest challenges facing the region, farmers are struggling with too much rain at the wrong time of year and too little when it is needed most and often in the same year! High variability within close proximity, hot temperatures, variable frost dates, etc.
- Location of farm and average climate conditions (describe).
- Discuss Previous system and resource concerns
- I will discuss adaptive management measures and decisions that I have used. Some provide long term resilience such as 25 years of no-till and crop rotation that have improved soil physical properties. These photos show some of the measures I currently use on my farm, including no-till, use of perennial grass, and cover crops to make soils more resilient.
- Dependent on the level of vulnerability
- Soil quality indicators are physical, chemical and biological properties, processes, and characteristics that can be measured and changes monitored for overall soil health. Soil testing for soil health generally includes information for: Chemical (standard soil test)composition Physical attributes aggregate stability, Available water, and hardness of different layers Biological or various was to account for the biological activity in the soil Organic matter usually part of a standard soil test, has impact on all most soil function necessary for food and fiber production Active Carbon a measurement of that fraction of OM that is readily available as a carbon sources for soil microbes Mineralizable N measure of the potential of soil microbes to mineralize N into forms available to plants NH4+ Respiration a measurement of CO2 being released by soil microbes Microbe analysis a measurement of the microbe composition in the soil, e.g. bacteria, fungi, protozoa & nematodes All testing for soil health utilize some or all of these elements in their analysis
- Compaction layer
- Silty Clay Loam crust inhibiting germinated seed from emerging
- Continuous No-Till; C-S-W Crop Rotation; Cover Crop after wheat; adjust use of varieties/GMO crops. Weed management strategies (resistant weeds) Any measures to increase cover to conserve moisture, improve soil structure and organic matter. Make year to year fertilizer, herbicide, and other adjustments based on climate information and soil conditions. Wheat is a key crop, breaks pest cycles; provides for off-season moisture; Residue=dollars; allows for insertion of cover crop to increase residue-ground cover C:N ratio must be >20; Corn = WS Grass; Soybeans =WS Broadleaf; Wheat =CS grass; can incorporate CS broadleaf's such as hairy vetch along with others Some corn stalks left from 3 yrs prior, soybean stubble gone. Minimal disturbance inject NH3 December or March. Use of Flex Ear corn varieties Focus on Yield impacts of cover crops
- Since 1989 329 Continuous No-Till 328 Crop Rotation Started with Sorghum-Corn-Soybeans-Wheat changed to Corn-Soybeans-Wheat (CC) 20 Acres converted to Switchgrass for 10 years in biomass for Ethanol study and hay averaged 4 tons/acre on HEL field. Converted to soybeans and CP25 prairie restoration with no-till/residue management; CRP Quail Buffers 386; Diversions/Terraces at edge of field; CSP and EQIP contracts (describe). Prior to that the farm was in continuous wheat for 6 years and wheat sorghum rotation prior to that with clean till.
- In 2015 we hosted Dr. Abdul Majid ICARDA to look at how we use adaptive mgt on my dryland farm. ICARDA is interested in utilizing practices that improve fertilizer and water efficiency, nexus between fertility & soil health. He was amazed on the soybeans and corn crop condition. Flex ear corn varieties 0.7 pounds of N/bushel corn yield
- Discuss, Yield impacts; Fertilizer use efficiency; Yield vs. rainfall (timing, intensity & amount); 2 in ET for Corn Soybeans
- Crary air reel with Poly Skids for harvesting beans in corn stalks
- Pre-drilled holes fit on the bottom of header, avoid debris and dirt build-up, less problems with corn stalks when harvesting soybeans. This is from a john deere combine, they make shoes for Gleaner, JD, Case/IH, Massey These are very important when harvesting soybeans to avoid problems with corn stalks Maywes company http://www.maywes.com/skid_shoe_replacement_parts
- Fluted coulter. CIH air planter used for Soybeans and Corn, vary planting depth has firming point behind true vee opener, Planting depth 2-1/2 inches for corn, 2 inches for milo and 1-1/2 inches for soybeans (consistent depth), Great Plains Drill made in KS, Plant Wheat after Hessian fly date October 1-15 into soybean stubble
- Green leaf air inducted 2 piece 12 gal to 18 gal adjust boom ht to target weed height appropriately, gps to avoid overlap also have foam markers if desired.
- Fertilizer Program: Narrow knife anhydrous applicator 30โ spacing. NH3 only applied 1 in 3 yrs following wheat stubble. Bean program: 40-50 lbs 11-52-0 late fall broadcast; wheat program: 20-40-0 dry fert. Between 25 & 45 pounds P in fall, spring top dress 24d ally 60 N; corn program at planting 5 gal 10-34-0 and sulfur/zn in furrow 120 pounds Actual N (NH3) milo 100 # actual N; Reduced Nitrogen Fertilizer 70lbs of Nitrogen for corn injected in wheat stubble in spring. Starter fertilizer 10-34-0 applied with planter, Soybeans 10-34-0 starter 20 lbs of P2O5 Wheat Nitrogen only.
- Use 2-4-Enlist Weed Control system includes seeds that are genetically modified to tolerate the new herbicide from Dow, Enlist Duo. Enlist Duo contains 2,4-D that adds another mode of action to the glyphosate-based herbicides. Better protection against tougher weeds, which have been growing resistant to the glyphosate. Commercial application of the system requires both the new seed traits as well as the new herbicide to be approved by the regulatory authorities Corn production in 2014, for soybean production in 2015 and cotton production in 2016. D
- Wheat stubble managed mostly without with out cover crop , brother is concerned about water use so we are starting slow, important to maintain ground cover and canopy ; Six way legume mix for nitrogen spring lentil, chickling vetch, common vetch, forage pea, cowpea, soybeans on the left; on the right BMR corn, grain sorghum, German millet for carbon Leave as tall as possible Limit residue removal/grazing Avoid brassica monocultures for cover crops If cover crops are used limit growth and utilize cocktails to avoid (water conservation) Terminate green bridge volunteer wheat late in the late fall for wheat streak mosaic (curl mites) Most recent addition was to add high carbon covers following wheat harvest to provide lasting cover for moisture conservation through the following growing season
- Great nephews checking cover crop fields and range monitoring with me!!