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African Infrastructure Development



               David Winter
Business Unit Leader Infrastructure - Africa




                                     We Accelerate Growth


                                                        1
Why should African infrastructure development
       interest you and your business?
Africa – Key Infrastructure Statistics


                               $810 billion $363 billion                      56%            35%
                                                                                              % of
                                 Total spending          Is the current        % of
                                                                                         investment in
                             needed over the next         spending on     investment in
                                                                                          Sub-Saharan
                             five years to upgrade,      infrastructure    Sub-Saharan
                                                                                            Africa on
                                rehabilitate and      development in Sub-    Africa on
                                                                                           energy and
                                 expand Africa’s         Saharan Africa     transport
                                                                                             power
                                  infrastructure                          infrastructure
                                                                                         infrastructure
                                                                       30           $145          50 years
                                                                        Is the                     It will take 50
                                                                     number of     billion         years for most
                                                                    countries in   South Africa is  countries in
                                                                    Africa which       currently   Africa to reach
                                                                    have regular   investing $145 universal access
                                                                       power           billion in    to modern
                                                                      outages       infrastructure infrastructure


                                                                              50%                70%
                                                                          Infrastructure      In land-locked
                                                                         development has   countries, transport
                                                                         been responsible accounts for 70%
                                                                          for more than    of the value
                                                                          half of Africa’s of exported
                                                                            improved          goods
                                                                            economic
                                                                           performance

Source: World Bank and Frost and
Sullivan analysis
*based on active projects in 2011
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
  Infrastructure Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

                                                Transport                     Energy
 Total investment                             $161 billion                 $127 billion
 amounts to
 $363 billion
                                                                                               Legend:
                                                                                               Investment ($ billion)

                                                                                                     < 0.5
                                                                                                 0.5 – 1.0
               Number of high value                                                              1.0 – 5.0
               projects, many valued                                                            5.0 – 10.0
               >$1 billion                                                                      0.0 – 15.0
                                                                                                      15.0



                                      Water                    Social                      Telecoms
                                 $15 billion                 $43 billion                  $17 billion



    Most projects
    valued < $100
    million




Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
*based on active projects in 2011


                                                                                                                 4
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
  $363 billion is being invested in infrastructure development in Sub-
  Saharan Africa

               South Africa is the leader in infrastructure development on the continent,
                                          investing $145 billion

                                                                                Nigeria and Mozambique
(Includes housing, hospital                                                      account for 10.8% and
   and school construction)
                                                                                 9.4% of infrastructure
                                                                                       investment

                                         $288 billion will be invested in the
                                      transport and energy and power sectors




Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
*based on active projects in 2011


                                                                                                          5
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
  What impacts infrastructure development on the continent?

                                                                                Drivers
   Challenges                                                  Millennium
                                                              Development
                                                              Goal targets

   Project funds have to be secured from the private                           Increasing             Expansion of
   sector / donors as African countries do not have                          private sector            the mining
                                                                              participation             industry
   sufficient funds to support infrastructure development


   Skills shortage on the continent results in
   engineers and other skilled labour being imported for
   projects, increasing costs                                                Restraints
                                                            Corruption and        Reliance on
   Political Instability in the long term increases              mal-            private sector /
   the risk of future projects. This challenge is           administration       donor funding
   particularly pertinent in a country like Nigeria.
                                                                                                      Poor power
                                                                                                    supply capacity,
                                                                                                      restricting the
                                                                                                    growth of economies




Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis


                                                                                                                          6
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
$28 billion will be invested in transport corridor development in Sub-
Saharan Africa
Current state of transport infrastructure:
Roads in good condition                Freight transport by rail
Western                72%             Western              11%

Central                49%             Central              2%

Eastern                82%             Eastern              2%

Southern               100%            Southern             85%


Container dwell times

                                        10 transport corridors
(International standard: 7 days)

Western            11-30
                   days                  are being developed
Eastern            5-28 days              across the region
Southern           4-8 days


                Road               $9.2 billion        Creation of 9 Trans-African Highways

                 Rail              $14.8 billion Rail networks to receive bulk of investment

                Ports              $3.5 billion        Ports development to decrease bottlenecks
           Source: World Bank and Frost and Sullivan analysis
           *based on active projects in 2011



                                                                                                   7
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
Rail infrastructure is the fastest growing segment of transport
infrastructure

 Morocco
                                                                                                                    African
 $14.67B               2               Active rail projects amount                        Planned
                   1                                                                                           governments are
                                               to $48      billion                        Ongoing
                                                                                                                trying hard to
                                                                                                              reduce the burden
                                                                                   Ethiopia                         on road
                                                                                   $3.70B                       infrastructure
                           5               1
                                                                           7
                           1                                       3
                                       7
     Ghana
                                                                                                               This will reduce
                                                                                     Kenya
     $6.40B                                                            3                                     transport costs and
                                                                   1
                                                                                     $405.5M
                       Nigeria                                                                                help open up land-
                                           Zambia
                       $6.40B                                                                                 locked economies
                                           $93.8 M             3
                                                                                       Tanzania
                               Namibia                                                 $5.37B
                               $2.68B                      2
                                                                   4
                                                   2           1                      Mozambique               $4.8 billion to be
   Multi-Country Mega Projects                         1
                                               3                                      $3.66B                  invested in public
   Botswana-Mozambique-                                                                                            transport
                               $7.0B
   Zimbabwe
                                                                                                                infrastructure:
   Isaka-Keza-Kigali
                               $1.9B
                                                               Botswana
   (Tanzania-Rwanda)                                                                                         Lagos, Abuja, Maputo, Addis
                                                               $1.40B
   Namibia-Botswana            $1.3B                                   Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
                                                                       *based on active projects in 2011


                                                                                                                                           8
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
  $94 billion will be invested in the energy sector in Sub-Saharan
  Africa

  Sub-Saharan Africa generation capacity is 68 GW - equal to Spain in
  Europe – South Africa produces 40 GW alone…
   Mining industry drives growth in installed capacity
              5.0 GW         18.0 GW
                                                                                               Will continue to be the major
                                                           2.0 GW
                                                                     3.6 GW                    energy source to 2020
        2.0 GW
                         3.3 GW
                                                       0.4 GW 0.5 GW
                                                                   4.2 GW     $57.7 billion (12 GW) to be
                                                      6.3 GW                  developed in renewable
             2009   52.6 GW                                                   energies by 2020 across Africa
             2020   111.6 GW                                   1.7 GW

                                                2.0 GW
                                                                5.2 GW
                                       1.1 GW                                                   Governments to encourage
                                                0.7 GW
                                                                                                involvement of private
                                            0.1 GW          2.2 GW                              sector
                                  0.4 GW
                                                 65.4 GW
         2009

         2020                                                                  10,000 km of transmission
                                                                               lines will be used to exploit
                                            40.0 GW
                                                                               larger scale, cheaper energy
Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
*based on active projects in 2011
                                                                               sources


                                                                                                                               9
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
$15 billion will be invested in water and wastewater infrastructure in
Sub-Saharan Africa

Water projects greatly outnumber wastewater projects in Africa
                                                                                                      Access to modern infrastructure:
                                           1/0                                              Piped water               Flushing toilet
                                  20/0
                                                                                            Urban           39%       Urban             25%

                                                                7/2    15/7                 Rural           5%        Rural             2%
                                                        10/1
                                                                12/6
                           Legend

                           Number of     WT/
                           projects      WWT     13/0                                                  Large number of projects,
                                                          6/2          10/0
                                                                                                    valued at less than $100 million
% of Greenfield projects




                           <20%
                                                 9/3     4/2
                           20%-40%

                           40%-60%
                                                                                                    Millennium Development Goals
                           60%-70%
                                                                                                             are key driver
                                                        66/13
                                                                       Number of projects
                           >70%

                                                                                                     Majority of funding is donor
                             Rehabilitation, upgrading and                                                     sourced
                           improvement projects characterise
                                     development

                                                                                                                                              10
Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook
  Snapshot of Mega-Infrastructure Projects across the
  Continent
                                                   $6.3 billion
                                               2,000 MW Wind and          $6 billion
                                          2,000 MW Solar Power Plan   Development of a
                                                                      new deep sea port




                                                                                                      $7 billion
                                                                                                  Rehabilitation of
                                                                                                 60,000km of urban
                                                                                                  and rural roads



          $10 billion
         200,000 low
         cost houses


                                                                                                     $2.5 billion
                                $1.2 billion                                                         1600 MW
                        1,500 km railway line linking                                            hydropower station
                           Namibia to Botswana



                                         $14.5 billion
                                         World’s 3rd                                             $7 billion
                                            largest                                        1,100 km railway linking
                                         supercritical                                    Botswana to Mozambique
Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis     coal fired plant                                       via Zimbabwe
*based on active projects in 2011


                                                                                                                    11

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Gil 2012 Africa Mega Trends Africa Infrastructure by David Winter

  • 1. African Infrastructure Development David Winter Business Unit Leader Infrastructure - Africa We Accelerate Growth 1
  • 2. Why should African infrastructure development interest you and your business?
  • 3. Africa – Key Infrastructure Statistics $810 billion $363 billion 56% 35% % of Total spending Is the current % of investment in needed over the next spending on investment in Sub-Saharan five years to upgrade, infrastructure Sub-Saharan Africa on rehabilitate and development in Sub- Africa on energy and expand Africa’s Saharan Africa transport power infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure 30 $145 50 years Is the It will take 50 number of billion years for most countries in South Africa is countries in Africa which currently Africa to reach have regular investing $145 universal access power billion in to modern outages infrastructure infrastructure 50% 70% Infrastructure In land-locked development has countries, transport been responsible accounts for 70% for more than of the value half of Africa’s of exported improved goods economic performance Source: World Bank and Frost and Sullivan analysis *based on active projects in 2011
  • 4. Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook Infrastructure Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Energy Total investment $161 billion $127 billion amounts to $363 billion Legend: Investment ($ billion) < 0.5 0.5 – 1.0 Number of high value 1.0 – 5.0 projects, many valued 5.0 – 10.0 >$1 billion 0.0 – 15.0 15.0 Water Social Telecoms $15 billion $43 billion $17 billion Most projects valued < $100 million Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis *based on active projects in 2011 4
  • 5. Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook $363 billion is being invested in infrastructure development in Sub- Saharan Africa South Africa is the leader in infrastructure development on the continent, investing $145 billion Nigeria and Mozambique (Includes housing, hospital account for 10.8% and and school construction) 9.4% of infrastructure investment $288 billion will be invested in the transport and energy and power sectors Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis *based on active projects in 2011 5
  • 6. Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook What impacts infrastructure development on the continent? Drivers Challenges Millennium Development Goal targets Project funds have to be secured from the private Increasing Expansion of sector / donors as African countries do not have private sector the mining participation industry sufficient funds to support infrastructure development Skills shortage on the continent results in engineers and other skilled labour being imported for projects, increasing costs Restraints Corruption and Reliance on Political Instability in the long term increases mal- private sector / the risk of future projects. This challenge is administration donor funding particularly pertinent in a country like Nigeria. Poor power supply capacity, restricting the growth of economies Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis 6
  • 7. Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook $28 billion will be invested in transport corridor development in Sub- Saharan Africa Current state of transport infrastructure: Roads in good condition Freight transport by rail Western 72% Western 11% Central 49% Central 2% Eastern 82% Eastern 2% Southern 100% Southern 85% Container dwell times 10 transport corridors (International standard: 7 days) Western 11-30 days are being developed Eastern 5-28 days across the region Southern 4-8 days Road $9.2 billion Creation of 9 Trans-African Highways Rail $14.8 billion Rail networks to receive bulk of investment Ports $3.5 billion Ports development to decrease bottlenecks Source: World Bank and Frost and Sullivan analysis *based on active projects in 2011 7
  • 8. Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook Rail infrastructure is the fastest growing segment of transport infrastructure Morocco African $14.67B 2 Active rail projects amount Planned 1 governments are to $48 billion Ongoing trying hard to reduce the burden Ethiopia on road $3.70B infrastructure 5 1 7 1 3 7 Ghana This will reduce Kenya $6.40B 3 transport costs and 1 $405.5M Nigeria help open up land- Zambia $6.40B locked economies $93.8 M 3 Tanzania Namibia $5.37B $2.68B 2 4 2 1 Mozambique $4.8 billion to be Multi-Country Mega Projects 1 3 $3.66B invested in public Botswana-Mozambique- transport $7.0B Zimbabwe infrastructure: Isaka-Keza-Kigali $1.9B Botswana (Tanzania-Rwanda) Lagos, Abuja, Maputo, Addis $1.40B Namibia-Botswana $1.3B Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis *based on active projects in 2011 8
  • 9. Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook $94 billion will be invested in the energy sector in Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa generation capacity is 68 GW - equal to Spain in Europe – South Africa produces 40 GW alone… Mining industry drives growth in installed capacity 5.0 GW 18.0 GW Will continue to be the major 2.0 GW 3.6 GW energy source to 2020 2.0 GW 3.3 GW 0.4 GW 0.5 GW 4.2 GW $57.7 billion (12 GW) to be 6.3 GW developed in renewable 2009 52.6 GW energies by 2020 across Africa 2020 111.6 GW 1.7 GW 2.0 GW 5.2 GW 1.1 GW Governments to encourage 0.7 GW involvement of private 0.1 GW 2.2 GW sector 0.4 GW 65.4 GW 2009 2020 10,000 km of transmission lines will be used to exploit 40.0 GW larger scale, cheaper energy Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis *based on active projects in 2011 sources 9
  • 10. Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook $15 billion will be invested in water and wastewater infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa Water projects greatly outnumber wastewater projects in Africa Access to modern infrastructure: 1/0 Piped water Flushing toilet 20/0 Urban 39% Urban 25% 7/2 15/7 Rural 5% Rural 2% 10/1 12/6 Legend Number of WT/ projects WWT 13/0 Large number of projects, 6/2 10/0 valued at less than $100 million % of Greenfield projects <20% 9/3 4/2 20%-40% 40%-60% Millennium Development Goals 60%-70% are key driver 66/13 Number of projects >70% Majority of funding is donor Rehabilitation, upgrading and sourced improvement projects characterise development 10
  • 11. Infrastructure Africa: Market Outlook Snapshot of Mega-Infrastructure Projects across the Continent $6.3 billion 2,000 MW Wind and $6 billion 2,000 MW Solar Power Plan Development of a new deep sea port $7 billion Rehabilitation of 60,000km of urban and rural roads $10 billion 200,000 low cost houses $2.5 billion $1.2 billion 1600 MW 1,500 km railway line linking hydropower station Namibia to Botswana $14.5 billion World’s 3rd $7 billion largest 1,100 km railway linking supercritical Botswana to Mozambique Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis coal fired plant via Zimbabwe *based on active projects in 2011 11