Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview December 2013

1. Economic Indicators
Last update 13.12.2013
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2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – December 2013
Europe:
• Consensus December GDP forecast for WE again remained on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,3% for
2014.
• The EU industrial confidence improved again compared to last month while the consumer
confidence indicator decreased slightly from its October level.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly, both, the assessment of the
current business situation as well as the assessment of the expectations improved.
• After the ECB cut the target interest rate by 0,25%points on November 7 the concern of the
central bank remains on the output gap, excess liquidity and a weak recovery.
US:
• Consensus December GDP forecast for the US remained on 1,7% for 2013 and on 2,6% for
2014.
• Q3 GDP figures were considerably revised upwards from 2,8% q-o-q to now 3,6%. Main driver
were inventories, but they could translate into a drag on Q4 growth. Financial markets are trying
to come to terms with the fact that monetary tapering is now likely to come sooner rather than
later.
Japan:
• The December GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,9% to 1,8% for 2013 and
remained on 1,6% for 2014.
• Muted wage growth remains a burden to the outlook while many other of the country’s
parameters have improved during the last months.
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3. Eurostat Data
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4. 13 Q1
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'10 Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
'07Q1
%
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
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5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
1
0,5
0
%
-0,5
-1
-1,5
-2
13 Q1
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'10 Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
'07Q1
-2,5
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
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6. Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
13/1
12/1
11/1
10/1
09/1
0,9
08/1
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
Source: Eurostat Nov 13
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7. Eurozone inflation
Nov.13; 0,9
ECB short-term rate
Jan 15
Jul.14
Jan 14
Jul.13
Jan 13
Jul.12
Jan 12
July 11
Jan 11
Jul.10
Jan 10
Jul.09
Dec 13; 0,25
Jan 09
July 08
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5 FED rate
0,0
-0,5
Jan 08
%
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Dec 13
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8. Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate
12
10,9
11
%
10
9
8
7
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
6
Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
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9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in November.
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
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10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 in November decreased slightly from October.
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
-35
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
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11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
85
79,5
80
75
%
70
65
13Q1
12Q1
11Q1
10Q1
09Q1
08Q1
07Q1
06Q1
05Q1
04Q1
60
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
Source: Eurostat Nov 13
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12. Ifo Data
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13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
The Ifo World Economic climate brightens in Q4 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 13
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14. Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly in Q4 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 13
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15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Nov 13
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16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Oct 13
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17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Oct 13
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18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Dec 13
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19. Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
6 months expectations
Business situation
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
Jan 08
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose significantly. Assessments of the current
business situation improved. Firms’ expectations regarding business developments rose to
their highest level since spring 2011. The German economy looks ahead to the winter months
with confidence.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
Source: IFO Dec 13
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20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose significantly. Assessments of the current
business situation improved. Firms’ expectations regarding business developments rose to
their highest level since spring 2011. The German economy looks ahead to the winter months
with confidence.
Source: IFO Dec 13
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21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The business climate within the printing industry remained on -3 in November.
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Nov 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Business Development at German Printers – November 2013:
 The assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry improved considerably compared to the last month to now 24%,
the highest value since December 1991. Still it has to be taken into
account that November is one of the months with the highest turnover
during the year. Remains to be seen whether this positive tendency will
continue.
 The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – remained on -3%, the same value as in the previous
month.
 The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened to -27%.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Dec 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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23. Zenith Data
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24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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27. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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